Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019

Aggregated state breakdowns from Newspoll suggest solid swings in Victoria and Queensland will tip a close result in Labor’s favour.

No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.

The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.

Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.

Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019”

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  2. One thought – Morrison got into Parliament (after losing the original Cook preselection 8-82 to Michael Towke) because the Daily Telegraph smeared Towke and the Liberals dumped him as their candidate.

    The Telegraph had to pay out an undisclosed sum in damages when it was all shown to be false, but it got Morrison into Parliament didn’t it?

  3. WWP Shorten could have done what Morrison did with the tasteless article about his mother and just said a person’s religious beliefs are not relevant to the campaign.

  5. Shorten should have stayed out of the gays going to hell.

    Wong should have shaken the hand of the bastard that defied 40 years of norms for a nasty cheap political trick.

    If only they make the election about Trump and nothing at all progressive.

    etc etc

    things extremists, supporters of white supremacists, far right wing etc, say to pretend to themselves they ‘might’ have voted ‘intelligent progressive’ except they insisted on being intelligent and progressive and gave the evil scum supporters no choice but to support evil scum.

  6. WWP Shorten could have done what Morrison did with the tasteless article about his mother and just said a person’s religious beliefs are not relevant to the campaign.

    Didn’t Morrison invite the photographers in to take a picture of him yabbering in the spirit?
    Didn’t Morrison use a weird religious phrase in his launch to speak to the pentecostals?

    Pretty much Morrison has made his personal beliefs (well he had before with his opposition to SSM in the disgusting postal vote charade we were force through by gutless coward Turnbull and his far right wing band of evil brothers) central to this campaign. To try and turn that on Shorten is Trumpesque in its honesty and integrity.

    Morrison was pretty shit in his response to Shorten’s mum stuff. A real coward. I don’t want Shorten to be a coward, I’d rather he lose.

  7. sonar
    says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 11:21 pm
    @nath….I worked with a guy from the UK…..here in Aus on a working holiday with his missus……..Jamaican ancestry……a very funny man……great to work with and as his boss he thought it best to tell me he hadn’t been straight for at least a decade…….lol.
    I didn’t know whether to believe him….lol…..but said to him what he did in his off hours was his business.
    _____________________________
    Jamaicans are great to party with. I have a fantasy that I’m on a beach with Rihanna in Jamaica…………… anyway. Here’s a pic of Rihanna so you can get an idea of what I’m talking about:

  10. Well I watched Bill Shorten comment on the hell things, at no stage did he reference Morrison’s religious beliefs.

    But he did express disappointment that Morrison couldn’t answer whether he thought gay people should go to hell, which he was asked the other day and completely dodged the question.

    And then right on cue Morrison jumped on his high horse, and was suddenly was able to answer the question, and tell us how he loves everyone.

  11. Murdoch and Morrison must be getting really frustrated that the punters are not listening to them. Bookies’ odds are hardly moving.

    Sportsbet & Beteasy have 1.15 Labor 5.50 Coalition.
    Ladbrokes 1.12, 6.00

  13. 1. Morrison was the one that opened the issue up bringing the media into his church.
    2. He left himself wide open yesterday by sidestepping the question about gays going to hell, and then made it worse rambling on for another five minutes about anything else.
    3. Why didn’t he just unequivocally say no to the question? Instead of doing that, he said ‘it’s the law’ which could give the perception that he does in fact believe that is what happens to gays.

    Bill Shorten asked why Morrison was unable to directly answer the question. I think that is a reasonable question that many voters would want explained.

  14. Morrison was trying really, really hard to shed tears because his religious freedoms were under attack but the ducts didn’t quite co-operate. He thought he was on the verge of being a real man like Bill but despite his fabricated persona he couldn’t perform when it mattered.

  18. “This is the nastiest Lib campaign I’ve seen since the last one.”

    Yep. Other than they seem to have taken social media propaganda to outrageous levels, there is nothing new under the sun.

  22. If this garbage is started, issue writs against all parties and injunct all parties thru the courts preventing any discussion of the issue prior to resolving the matter.

  23. Certainly ill give the award to Morrison being a half decent actor, but sometimes he hams it up just a little too much at times and sounds like a sour puss who is just moments away from crying.

    Otherwise he sounds like one of those people who call into Allan Jones, who will constantly go on about how Labor can’t manage anything.

  24. Every campaign is described as the dirtiest X has ever seen. This has been one of the least dirty from where I’m sitting. There is about 1% of the personal attacks you see in the party primaries in the US let alone the actual election.

  28. Scott….the 2PP will not tell the whole story as far as seats won/lost is concerned. There will be safely Lib-held seats that register no 2PP moves. There will be safely Lib-held seats that are lost to Indies in which Labor’s vote will fall. There will be safe-held Labor seats where few votes move. The action will be in the marginals. By definition, the swings in these seats will be muted. But there will be swings and they will have disproportionately large effects. Marginal Lib-held and Labor-held seats have been the focus of intense field campaigns by Labor, by Change the Rules, by Get-up, the Gs and others. Votes will move in these seats in large enough numbers for Labor wins. Altogether there are about 30 seats that have been in play for many months as targets for Labor or the Indies. A lot of these will fall even if the National 2PP vote barely moves at all.

  31. Wow, how desperately has the latest iteration of “Kill Bill” been on display among the PB commentariat tonight! Gratuitously re-rehashing stuff from four decades ago, which was last rehashed five years ago, under the guise of speculating whether or not the original rehashers will re-rehash it all again now.

    Anyway, all this crime fiction stuff is doubtless very interesting to some, but hardly addresses why anyone should entrust the coal-huggers with a further three years of vacuous occupation of the government benches.

    Riddle me this: what malfeasance could a prime ministerial aspirant have committed that would justify passing over his party and instead consigning Australia to another three years of ripping money off the poor and battling to shower it on the well off; another three years of climate change fig leafs covering up the continued despoliation of our planet to line the pockets of the owners of coal reserves; another three years of blocking the disabled from accessing the NDIS so it can come under budget and be sprayed back up to the wealthy in tax cuts?

    No wonder so many are pre-polling: they know they want these heartless morons thrown out, and don’t care what mud their cheer squad throws at their opponent in the last week.

  33. Michael A…the committed are voting early – both the committed Labor-loyal and the committed Lib-devoted.

    Very purposeful voting…

  35. Voting early is to do with convenience, nothing to do with how committed or rusted on voters are.

    Most of the highest prepoll seats are regional/rural, some safe and some marginal.

  36. Does the dirty digger want to go this low. Actually, I don’t think so. This would be HIS call. He would not want to wear this one

  37. A person’s religious beliefs should be relevant to the campaign, their beliefs should be what drives them in life, their political positions should reflect their religious beliefs or they are hypocrites.

  38. Quite sad to observe so many comments that adopt MSM jingoistic narratives, reverse bigotry and reverse racism. If you say it against whites and Christians and ‘bogans’ it seems that is ok…but if inserted the alternative black and Muslim there would be outrage.
    The irony is that you can freely and s a ferlt say white supremacist, ignorant Christians as you walk down on any Australian street, because of those very same people many are slagging. Try the alternative in those alternative countries.
    So would the reverse bigots and reverse racist apply a few iq points to their statements.

    As far as this election goes, being o fc nowhere near the importance many are doting over, I expect the incumbent govt. Will just hold on.

  39. I can’t imagine anything more relevant than knowing whether a political leader thinks a large portion of the electorate are sinners heading straight for hell. It would infect everything he did regarding that community. Shorten was totally right to stand up for them

  43. (this refers to an original post @6.53 pm 14.5.19)
    Thanks for the explanation about Bludgertrack and Lindsay, William.
    I believe I understand now: if Emma Husar was recontesting for Labor then it would have been classed as “ALP sophomore surge” & -1.4%, correct?
    Appreciate all of your great work.

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