Election minus one day

The latest polling collectively suggests swings to Labor in Victoria and Western Australia, but with way too many close results in prospect for the Coalition to be counted out quite yet.

Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)

The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.

Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.

BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.

Original post

To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.

We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.

Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.

Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.

Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.

The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.

Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.

If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,521 comments on “Election minus one day”

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  1. Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #449 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 12:34 pm

    Rex Douglas says:

    The Greens will be required for any climate change legislation to pass.

    Therefore the Greens will have some ownership of any legislation that passes.

    That depends a lot on the attitude that they bring to the table, they alone won’t have the numbers to allow passage through the Senate.

    If they come with your attitude then they would quickly find themselves on the outer and Labor would seek more reasonable partners.

    ‘reasonable partners’ – you mean going back to the Liberals again like last time ??

  2. Dan Gulberry

    There are just too many connections. Angus Taylor can try and suggest that it was all just happenstance. But it’s like believing there are fairies at the bottom of the garden.

  3. The ideal situation would be a bipartisan deal with the Coalition but that doesn’t look likely. Otherwise the solution will be something politically saleable that they can get through the parliament. They might not be able to get anything through.

  4. Taylor attendee new college hey. Fun fact – I stayed at New College for a week during the World University Debating Championships in January 1993. Beautiful but it was freezing and I had a very heavy cold that week. Alas

  5. Victoria @ #453 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 12:11 pm

    Dan Gulberry

    There are just too many connections. Angus Taylor can try and suggest that it was all just happenstance. But it’s like believing there are fairies at the bottom of the garden.

    It’s fair to say the burden of proof is well and truly back on Taylor.

    “I had no knowledge of this transaction in relation to a company I was involved with which benefitted someone I know personally.” Yeah, gonna need some more details there Angus.

  6. Blobbit

    “If the Coalition lose it’ll be interested to see a the Killing Season style documentary of their time in government. I avoided watching The Killing Season but I think the one for the current government will be quite illuminating.”

    I’ll be surprised if it’s made…

    After all, we’re still awaiting the hilarious ABC sitcom At Home With Tony Abbott/Malcolm Turnbull.

  7. Irrespective of how big a majority of seats Labor wins in the HOR, the big challenge is going to be the Senate.

    I’m hoping that they get enough seats there so that they only need a couple of extra votes to pass any and all legislation.

    For environmental legislation they can get some of the more reasonable Indies to get them over the line, and then bugger whatever the purists in the Greens want.

    For taxation measures, I think they’ll be able to the Greens on board, and then bugger what the conservatives and RWNJs want.

    We shall see.

  8. “I was looking at it from the perspective of the 1993 election – Labor won 10 and lost 7 for a net gain of 3 – but Labor was going with the swing. So again this time there is going to be a swing to Labor – I cannot see this not translating into net gains for Labor.”

    Rocket Rocket – this is how I see it. It’s how Bluey sees it too. I think. Although Bluey is starting his count from from 69 seats but I’m starting from 71 because of the redistributions give Labor a notional starting point of 72 and only one of those three notional labor gains seems to be in contest this election.

  9. Lance Crossfire @ #361 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 11:26 am

    Hi all,

    Reposting as this took a while to pass moderation and was back a few pages.

    I’m normally a lurker but I thought some of you may be interested in a short video explaining preferences that I’ve made.

    I suspect everyone here is across the subject, but you may know first time voters or disengaged types who struggle with it.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7P7nPtrdI8

    Feedback is also appreciated.

    Thanks.

    A good explanation, and I especially commend you for high-lighting that votes are not wasted when sent to minor parties.

  10. OK. When are we getting seat polls for:

    Capricornia
    Dawson
    Bonner
    Page
    Robertson
    Banks
    Warringah
    Wentworth
    Boothby
    Solomon
    Bass
    Braddon
    Lyons

    Seems a lot of seats of interest in this election are being not polled by Galaxy. I wonder why

    The obvious answer is that if you want to manipulate the narrative, you do a bunch of seat polls which will naturally have a high scatter and then you only release the ones that suit your narrative.

    It never fails to amaze me that between the Liberals and their mates in the media, the primary method chosen to lie and manipulate is the dishonest use of numbers. It happens over and over. Its like they have a playbook that starts with “ordinary people have no understanding of maths, so exploit them”.

  11. guytaur says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 12:29 pm

    Barney

    The CEFC survived. Thats a success. Plus the Greens voted with Labor on a lot of legislation. No matter how you look at it the Greens achieved a lot by supporting the Gillard Government. So did all the others that signed up too.

    That support was vital for every piece of legislation that Gillard put to parliament.
    We know that because we heard about it when the Greens did not support legislation.
    Stop looking at the half glass empty and look at what was achieved.

    It was not just the CEFC that survived Abbott’s wrecking mob.

    Oh sorry, there was one element that Abbott couldn’t destroy, I can now see why our carbon emissions have continued to fall during the subsequent Governments.

    Also, I love the way you think that the Greens supporting other Labor legislation is somehow a Greens’ achievement.

    Pretty low bar! 🙂

  12. HughB Pommy Bastard

    They should do a “Celebrity Big Brother House” . Who to put in ? Truffles,Scrott,Abbott, Mesma,Barnyard,Erica and………

  13. HughB Pommy Bastard @ #458 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 12:43 pm

    Blobbit

    “If the Coalition lose it’ll be interested to see a the Killing Season style documentary of their time in government. I avoided watching The Killing Season but I think the one for the current government will be quite illuminating.”

    I’ll be surprised if it’s made…

    After all, we’re still awaiting the hilarious ABC sitcom At Home With Tony Abbott/Malcolm Turnbull.

    I’m waiting for the Morrison version.

  14. Late Riser @ #391 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 11:51 am

    Someone earlier said Morrison is giving “aspiration” a work out. The context for the word aspiration is nearly always financial. Used like that “aspiration” is just code for “greed”.

    Also no one ever points out that about 90% of the people who aspire to wealth will fail in their aspirations.

    And it’s not like the 10% that make it need any extra reward from the government. Their reward is that they’ve attained the wealth they aspired to whilst the overwhelming majority of their peers have been far less fortunate.

  15. Labor + Greens is unlikely to have a majority in the Senate, sadly.

    The main legislative options in the Senate will be Labor+LNP, or Labor+Greens+non-loony-crossbenchers(Hinch+CA?).

    Both fraught, of course – it’s not going to be easy. Shorten and Wong’s skills will definitely be put to the test.

    And, of course, DD/Joint Sitting is a potential pathway that has to be kept in consideration, but … Shorten will not want to go there both for the immediately obvious risk-avoidance of an early DD election, but also because Shorten’s (and the ALP’s) main task this term is to settle the horses and bring back a sense of stability, reasonableness and, fundamentally, boringness to parliament and government so they can take a bolder agenda into a 2nd term and win a ‘regular’ mandate.

  16. Barney

    Yes giving Labor Confidence is such a low bar.
    Yet the castigation of the Greens continues even though Rob Oakshott and Tony Windsor did the same. We don’t hear this crap of they achieved nothing politically.

    The fact is the Gillard Minority government was a team effort. As effective as the sum of its parts. Wilkie wanted Pokies policy put up but was shafted by Labor so we know its not a one way street and Labor does have form in the shafting department when it suits it. Its a two way street. Thats what negations are all about.

    The low bar is Labor’s too as it was the major part of the team. Its all blame the Greens because Labor lost the election.

  17. Liz Ellis

    @LizzyLegsEllis

    I rarely comment on #auspol but today I am making an exception to support @billshortenmp I am forever grateful for his guidance and counsel during the establishment of the @AusNetballPA. He is leader who empowers those around him to push for change. Go well tomorrow Bill.

  18. A better option than a DD is to continually send legislation up to get blocked and use that as a battering ram at the next election in three years.

  19. Labor has 13 senators who are not up for election. They will get one from each territory, giving them a certain 15.

    If they win three in every state, that would get them to 33, meaning they would need 6 more for a passing majority.

    With under forty percent of the vote, it is, in fact, unlikely they will get three in any state, let alone all six. Winning four in any state appears out of the question.

    Don’t expect Labor to have an easy time in the Senate.

  20. I see there has been some discussion about this excellent article by Anne Davies. The last paragraph is particularly important:
    “The law firm Ashurst, which represents Eastern Australia Irrigation, the Caymans-based parent, issued a statement last week saying that while Taylor was a director, he and his family do not have a financial interest the company.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/17/angus-taylors-oxford-rowing-mate-one-of-main-beneficiaries-of-80m-water-deal

    He may not have a “financial’ Interest, but he certainly has an interest as a director, who no doubt draws large director’s fees.

  21. Living the Federal Election dream here in Albury-Wodonga with a tight race either side of the river…well, according to locals and political journalists with ears on the ground.
    Liberal insiders, however, think Indi is theirs for the taking and Farrer is safe. My view:
    INDI: Morrison made a huge bid here because they stumbled on a text-book first-time ‘modern Liberal’ candidate in a vulnerable seat, with McGowan’s retirement. I still have nightmares about Mirabella, personally, so hope the voters get it right.
    FARRER: Being left to its own devices so as not to draw attention to Ley’s past misdemeanours (some known, others not-so-known), that the Murray Darling Basin Plan is killing off the electorate’s irrigation and farming communities and they know it AND that Albury, the biggest town, is the birthplace of the Liberal party.
    If Farrer falls it will be a big deal.

  22. Of course the latest galaxy doesn’t change bludgertracker. The pollsters are FOLLOWING bludgertracker. It’s become a self sustaining circle

  23. current #AusVotes19  odds for the federal election tomorrow

    Ladbrokes
    Labor $1.12
    Coalition $6.00
    Greens $301.00

    TAB
    Labor $1.15
    Coalition $5.50

    Sportsbet
    Labor $1.14
    Coalition $5.75

    Betfair
    Labor $1.16
    Coalition $7.00

  24. The earliness of a double dissolution is not, of itself, a reason for Shorten not to call one. The next election is almost certain to be seven or eight months early anyway, to avoid a clash with the budget.

    The reason he won’t call one is that the coalition and other right-wingers will have more to lose at a half-senate election than Labor and the left will.

  25. I don’t care how many steps there are on the road to 39 votes (or however many after pairings and abstentions) in the Senate, as long as the horse-trading along the way doesn’t involve toxic and bigoted policies being adopted, legislation being watered down to pointlessness, or over-the-top pork-barrelling.

  26. Bellweather says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 12:14 pm
    “Rossa – If you’re in such major disagreement with any poll aggregation figures (i.e. WB shows 79 seats to Labor) why on earth are you jumping on PollBludger”
    _______________________
    There are still plenty of worthwhile contributions made here, including in the comments.

    The polling information is as ever interesting, and the national vote tomorrow could indeed match the overall 2PP presented on the tracker – that doesn’t absolutely have to mean a Labor win.

  27. Going to be interesting to see how GetUp perform. The role they might play has been talked up a lot in the lead up to sausage day. If some of the seats they’re active in don’t show a larger swing than the general one, they’ll have a bit of explaining to do.

    In the seat polls (for what they’re worth) the influence doesn’t seem to be showing up strongly yet, as far as Iv’e seen.

  28. Blobbit @ #486 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 12:42 pm

    Going to be interesting to see how GetUp perform. The role they might play has been talked up a lot in the lead up to sausage day. If some of the seats they’re active in don’t show a larger swing than the general one, they’ll have a bit of explaining to do.

    In the seat polls (for what they’re worth) the influence doesn’t seem to be showing up strongly yet, as far as Iv’e seen.

    How do you assess it though?

    Abbott and Dutton, for example, are throwing the kitchen sink at their seats which they don’t normally do. If they get back in on razor thin margins then arguably GetUp has still succeeded, because resources have been diverted to defend seats that wouldn’t normally need defending and they are in permanent danger of losing them at future elections.

  29. Guytaur,

    My point has always been that Labor’s challenge is to pass legislation in a way that maximises its chances of surviving in the long term.

    That is success.

    The best chance of that happening is to gain the support of the Liberals.

    The other way is to establish trust with the electorate, so that they keep voting for you allowing the changes to become entrenched in the system.

    Voters are sceptical about trusting politicians and only through doing what they have said they will do, will they start to regain that trust.

    That is one reason why doing anything greatly different from their current policy is unacceptable as a first step.

  30. I would also like to point out that Malcolm Turnbull smashed forever the previously accepted wisdom that a government that calls a DD and wins will be certain to have the numbers at a joint sitting. He also demonstrated the folly of the notion that a DD will clean out the crossbench.

    Double dissolutions were invented as emergency measures, only to be used in extreme cases. Following Turnbull’s experience, future PMs are likely to consider using them only as they were intended, which is a good thing.

  31. Barney

    You have learnt nothing from the last ten years.

    You can’t get the support of the Liberals. They dumped a Prime Minister to prove it.

    After the bunfight in opposition maybe just maybe the climate deniers will be defeated.
    The sane reasonable approach was adopted and passed as legislation. It got conservative independents who were not into science denial on board.a

    Thats the reality. Until the Liberals stop being an extremist party there is no point in Labor trying to appease them in the holy grail of a mythical bipartisanship position.

  32. “How do you assess it though?

    Abbott and Dutton, for example, are throwing the kitchen sink at their seats which they don’t normally do. If they get back in on razor thin margins then arguably GetUp has still succeeded, because resources have been diverted to defend seats that wouldn’t normally need defending and they are in permanent danger of losing them at future elections.”

    Agreed, it’s difficult to assess. Maybe a comparison of “safe” seats where they weren’t active compared to ones where they were? In the active seats, you’d expect a bigger swing away from those they campaigned against.

    If none of the seats they targeted fall, I’d say it was a bit disappointing – means that at best, they didn’t target the right set of seats, or did too many.

    Another measure of success for me would be if they managed to increase the overall pool of resources available to the left. If they’re just shifting resources that would have been active for the ALP or the Greens, then I’m not sure they helping much overall.

  33. C@t
    I suspect that I was rather surprised to find myself in a place in which I looked at home together with the other older aging baby boomers and smiling wrying to myself.
    I don’t think nor act in manner perhaps as my age would suggest. I have not become a retiree nor apathetic.
    My work situation surrounds me with youth and the under thirties and this is my catalyst for everyday as it rises.
    On many occasions I’ve vented my concerns re the work ahead for the new Shorten led Labor government in the coming years.
    The treachery and deceit braided within and throughout the LNP and its handling of the Darling River remains at the forefront of my thoughts. Implanting the emergency of climate change within the baby boomer and the hope I hold for todays youth in persuading and encouraging the new government and the nation in aiming for acceptably high goals for the future remains my ambition for myself and those that wish for similiar goals.
    My choice of Labor’s winning margin remains high and l wish for Labor of a seat count beyond 100.
    The recent comment by someone suggesting that parents need to have a good talk to their children left me speechless as l envisaged the retirees shovelling the remainder of their franking credits into poker machines before the death taxes are introduced! FFS!
    I’m unable to concentrate on some other matters today as the exhilaration of a Labor win tomorrow reminds me so much of ’72 and the leap forward (thanks Mao) that accompanies such success.
    I applaud the efforts of all involved in tomorrows success.
    I’ll celebrate early as my soccer team will wallop an opposition tomorrow, an opposition so representative of the LNP and their values.
    My multi-racial, multi-religious assortment represents Australia today, together with the aging coach, blended and unblended families, rich and poor families with an indomitable spirit which is also found in Labor.
    Go Labor!

  34. Itep
    I predicted a massive flop for GetUp so it’ll be interesting to see if that prediction comes true.

    GetUp has already succeed by ensuring keeping the focus on rabid right wing seats.. a constant reminder to the rest of Australia just how crap the coalition is .
    Mission accomplished , icing on the cake will be door slamming on the arses of Dutton, Abbott & Co.

  35. Looking at the newspaper endorsements, the Age, Sydney Morning Herald and The Guardian are endorsing Labor. Although the Sunday Fairfax newspapers (Sun-Herald and Sunday Age) aren’t endorsing either party. The same is going for the Western Australian.

    Australian Financial Review and the News Corporation newspapers (expect for the NT News) are backing the Coalition.

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