Election minus one day

The latest polling collectively suggests swings to Labor in Victoria and Western Australia, but with way too many close results in prospect for the Coalition to be counted out quite yet.

Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)

The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.

Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.

BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.

Original post

To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.

We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.

Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.

Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.

Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.

The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.

Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.

If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,521 comments on “Election minus one day”

Comments Page 12 of 31
1 … 11 12 13 … 31

  1. Snippets from the car radio today:

    Jones started show with a fairly decent tribute to Hawke (mostly quoting others but seemed sincere). Then morphed into usual echo chamber stuff with himself and callers.

    Shock jock Smith had Credlin on the show. She made some reasonable points on the current state of play but I felt what she really meant to say was a message to the Libs “don’t give up hope yet”. Turned off the radio so I don’t know if Smith raised Abbott’s piece last night. Probably not I suppose.

  2. Sir Henry

    Thanks for that. I thought the anti gambling people knew what they were talking about.
    It does go to show that in a minority government its a team effort and if you don’t have the team you are not going to have the legislation.

  4. Terminator: “Lance Crossfire hey, for balance someone needs to assume the Roger Ramjet alias.”

    The problems will come if there’s a Roger and a Lotta Love. There’d be fireworks between us then.

    By the way, how do you quote others in here? I have no formatting tools at all, just a spellcheck.

  5. Voice endeavour @ #550 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 1:36 pm

    Getup has succeeded, even if they fail in all of their seats.

    People like Abbott and Dutton are powerful vote winners, in certain electorates. Keeping them confined to their own electorates was a massive win. As was drawing a whole bunch of liberal $ into what would otherwise be safe seats.

    Additionally, parties don’t put someone on a narrow margin in as opposition leader or PM. Too risky.

    Exactly.

  6. The SMH editorial advocating a vote for Labor borders on damning Labor with the faintest of praise. Attempting to mollify Coalition voters among the readership, their central argument is that turfing Turnbull was “absurd” while Shorten has maintained a united front bench. Then they issue a dire warning that Labor must not, under any circumstances imaginable, attempt to pursue policies of which the SMH disapproves.

    Still, ‘tis vastly preferable to Murdoch’s minions all ululating from the same Kerri-Ann “The end of life as we know it” songbook.

  9. Fletch@1:46pm
    If the profile of L. Murdoch in New York Times is to be believed, he believes in Far-right ideology and most of the current federal LNP fits the bill. So from what we have seen in this campaign Murdoch is putting his full resources to achieve LNP victory ( even ex-Murdoch press journos concided that). In that process if the poll results show no variation you should not be surprised.

  10. For anyone who is interested, the maximum amount of franking credits people will no longer get a cash refund for is a little over $7500.

    At this point, your dividends you will receive will be over $37,000.

    Tax liability on:

    the first $18,200 is zero,
    from $18201 to $37,000 is $3,571.81.

    Any income over $37,000 attracts an income tax liability of 32.5 cents in every dollar which is more than the 30 cents of franking credit received.

    You will use up all the credits when you earn 180,000 in dividends.

  11. BK @ #519 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 1:42 pm

    In all of the nearly 60 years I have been interested in politics I have been able to accept the results of elections but if this government survives the weekend I fear for what it would mean for society in the long term as the Howard/Costello structural deficit is added to even more as well as leading to a widening of inequality and the social dislocation it would likely cause.
    I would be devastated for the sake of my descendants.

    Too right BK. Inequality is the fulcrum on which this spins. I believe we are a good people hoodwinked and deceived.

  12. BK @ #547 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 2:05 pm

    Australian Electoral Commission staff have called police to a pre-polling booth in Canberra after an altercation between Liberal candidate Mina Zaki and a Labor volunteer.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-16/canberra-prepoll-station-police-called-candidate-fight/11120166

    I looked at the video and the Liberal candidate was yelling at Katy Gallagher, ‘Grow up and take responsibility for once in your life, Katy!’, admonishing and scolding her like she was a child. Which tells you everything you ever need to know about the Liberal Party. They look down on people because they think they know better than them and ARE better than them.

  13. BK

    I am with you.
    I am of an age where the the politicians can’t really hurt me much.
    I have a roof over my head, good health and sufficient resources to make me immune (I hope) from all but the most extreme economic events.
    The recent deaths of a couple of people close to me has be wondering what it all means anyway.
    One of the most interesting things to me in all the words about Bob Hawke were Barrie Cassidy’s observations on Hawke’s abhorence of racism.
    The idea that we could have another three years of government by a party that has racism as an unwritten plank in its platform fills me with despair.
    Surely we are better than that.
    And our children and grandchildren deserve better.

  14. Given it’s time to do this, this is my prediction:

    Capricornia (QLD), Forde (QLD), Gilmore (NSW), Flynn (QLD), Robertson (NSW), Banks (NSW), Petrie (QLD), Hasluck (WA), Page (NSW), Chisholm (VIC), La Trobe (VIC), Dawson (QLD), Pearce (WA), Swan (WA), Leichhardt (QLD), Casey (VIC), lost to ALP

    (with the possibility of PUP spoiling in the NQ seats)

    Cowper (NSW) lost to IND

    Corangamite (*) (VIC), Dunkley (*) (VIC) Notional ALP Retain

    To close to call

    Higgins (VIC), Kooyong (VIC) to GRN

  15. guytaur says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 1:52 pm

    Barney

    To get trust with the voters you don’t lie to them that denying facts is a bipartisan position. Instead you say we will work with those who are willing to embrace facts and the evidence based policy that relies on.

    Thats how you build trust. Treat the voters as being intelligent and able to listen to your arguments not that of the science deniers.

    😆
    And you accuse me of having learnt nothing.

    That’s what Gillard tried, it failed!

    Labor have clearly said that they are not willing to go down that rabbit hole again.

    Once again you base your argument from a position that doesn’t exist.

    To take it up now would mean that Labor have been lying to voters for the whole campaign.

    That would destroy any chance of gaining their trust.

    Remember this is a first step to actually get action started, that doesn’t mean it will be the only step!

  16. Barney

    It failed because of right wing climate deniers.

    Appeasing the deniers and pretending that the facts don’t exist is to lose the trust of the voters.

    Thats the point.

    Edit: To remind you. The LNP are losing this election precisely due to that appeasement of deniers failing as Turnbull tried and failed within his own party.

  18. ltep says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 1:36 pm
    “Tristo, I’ll be a little surprised if Abbott loses. Dutton would be less of a surprise. I think George will be reelected too.”

    Current betting (Sportsbet):

    Warringah: Steggall 1.31 vs Abbott 3.30

    Dickson: France 1.60 vs Dutton 2.10

    Dawson: Christensen 1.60 vs Hassan 2.20

  19. “Sir Henry Parkes says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 2:05 pm
    Guytaur.
    Regarding your post that Gillard “shafted” Andrew Wilkie over his pokies policy, I feel I should correct the record. This has been claimed by a large number of anti-gambling campaigners and it is unfortunate because it is untrue.
    The fact is, Gillard did not have the numbers in the lower house to push an anti-pokies policy through. Wilkie and the Greens supported it. The two independents, Windsor and Oakeshott did not. In fact they repeatedly stated they would not vote to pass it through the House of Reps. They did agree to a somewhat watered-down version of Wilkie’s bill, but it was one of the first things Abbott abolished when he won government.
    It was a sad outcome and a triumph of political bastardry and the clubs’ greed over a worthwhile proposal.
    But that’s no reason to impugn Gillard’s record.”

    Best of luck convincing people of that mind set. Any progressive person with a clue was in awe of what Gillard achieved in that minority government

    It seems that it is only the delusional fools who bank all her successes as some kind of joint Greens – Labor achievement who at the same time would refer to her “shafting” Wilkie for not being able to get his reforms through he was so stubborn on.

  21. Might as well play along.

    I expect the Conservative Coalition to lose Gilmore and Warringah.

    (But at the least they’ll gain a seat in Tas (maybe two), they’ll gain Indi, and they’ll gain Lindsay in NSW.)

  22. pithicus

    For the first time evah, Tony Smith has written a personally addressed letter to constituents saying what a good bloke he is. This is an extra to the normal standard Lib leaflet. Interesting.

  23. Wilkie didn’t particularly bend over backwards to help either as I recall. He expected the ALP to do all the work.

  24. Brisbane is on my list of seats worth watching.

    Its a traditionally Labor seat and has a high number of 20 somethings. We also know thst the QLD swing will be concentrated in the SE vorner.

  25. Rossmcg

    Losing loved ones certainly has a way of putting things in perspective.

    I have a loved one ready to be picked up from hospital this afternoon.
    A great functioning public health system is a must have.
    For me it is about priorities of health, education, renewable energy, safety net via our social services.

    The priorities of the Liberals has always been for those who have the most, deserve being afforded all opportunity and everyone else can go and please themselves.
    Hopefully Australians are better than that.
    We all end up at the same place. Having the most doesn’t make one more deserving

  26. Some raw figures on pre-polling rates.

    STATE: PERCENTAGE

    NSW : 23.1 %
    QLD : 27.7 %
    VIC : 29.8 %
    SA : 16.6 %
    WA : 17.4 %
    TAS : 14.9 %
    NT : 28.4 %
    ACT : 28.7 %

  27. Lance Crossfire @ #4754 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 11:26 am

    Hi all,

    Reposting as this took a while to pass moderation and was back a few pages.

    I’m normally a lurker but I thought some of you may be interested in a short video explaining preferences that I’ve made.

    I suspect everyone here is across the subject, but you may know first time voters or disengaged types who struggle with it.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7P7nPtrdI8

    Feedback is also appreciated.

    Thanks.

    Thank you Lance. That was excellent, and very helpful.

  28. BK @ #511 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 1:42 pm

    In all of the nearly 60 years I have been interested in politics I have been able to accept the results of elections but if this government survives the weekend I fear for what it would mean for society in the long term as the Howard/Costello structural deficit is added to even more as well as leading to a widening of inequality and the social dislocation it would likely cause.
    I would be devastated for the sake of my descendants.

    Sounds just like what happened in Kansas in the US under Gov. Brownback. It destroyed the state’s economy and social structure.

  29. Warringah: Steggall 1.31 vs Abbott 3.30

    Dickson: France 1.60 vs Dutton 2.10

    I thought everyone was saying that Warringah would be harder?

  30. Meeting with a person from the seat of Kooyong and one from Page – both have mail boxes stuffed to the brim with election material

  31. ALP seats versus Non-ALP seats, Pre-polling percentages (averages):

    ALP : 23.84801321 %
    NON-ALP : 25.20770124 %

  32. Wow. Just, wow.

    “…Why do we get into any value judgement about any of these particular sources because at the end of the day, they are a practical thing, it’s a power source thing.”

    Morrison says his government is bringing it back to the practicalities of it as a power source, without those moral, partisan debates.

    I mean sure. Leaded petrol was just a power source. Lead in paint really helped it last longer. Asbestos is not only cheap, and from natural minerals, it is also a great insulator.

    Why on earth did we have any moral arguments about whether those things were good or not? I mean, let’s just break it back down to the practicalities right?

    Cocaine in coke really helped keep you awake. Letting freight companies run trucks to their own schedules without breaks got everything moving a lot quicker. Cigarette advertising was just the free market at work. Whales are an excellent source of protein. Ivory is pretty. Dumping nuclear waste should be just where ever is practical. Pouring chemicals into water sources is just keeping it off the land. Burning plastic is a really practical way to get rid of land waste.

    So many practical solutions just going *begging* because of ridiculous moral and partisan arguments about whether or not that is best for the environment at large. *shakes head*

    From the mouth of our current PM.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/may/17/federal-campaign-2019-shorten-morrison-hawke-politics-live?page=with:block-5cde34c88f08ea3978d883b2#block-5cde34c88f08ea3978d883b2

  33. Lance Crossfire @ #546 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 2:08 pm

    Terminator: “Lance Crossfire hey, for balance someone needs to assume the Roger Ramjet alias.”

    The problems will come if there’s a Roger and a Lotta Love. There’d be fireworks between us then.

    By the way, how do you quote others in here? I have no formatting tools at all, just a spellcheck.

    AR has devised an add on for the following —

    Desktop Firefox or Chrome

    and

    Android Firefox

    Obtainable from

    Chrome Extension
    https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/pb-comments-plugin/onjomgpfepfmffelldjhpapljdfiodpi
    Firefox Plugin
    https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/pb-comments-plugin

    Enables quoting, blocking, inbuilt blockquote, preview.

  34. “guytaur says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 2:07 pm
    Sir Henry

    Thanks for that. I thought the anti gambling people knew what they were talking about.
    It does go to show that in a minority government its a team effort and if you don’t have the team you are not going to have the legislation”

    What does that even mean?????

    This is where you end up being so confused that you end up creating nasty metaphors like “shafting” when Gillard couldn’t get an independents reform through but apparently everything she did achieve we should be allocating equally the party that formed government and each of the one vote indies and the Greens

    A minority government is a team effort. It is the team discipline and negotiating skill of the party in government.

  36. guytaur says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 2:18 pm

    Barney

    It failed because of right wing climate deniers.

    Appeasing the deniers and pretending that the facts don’t exist is to lose the trust of the voters.

    Thats the point.

    Edit: To remind you. The LNP are losing this election precisely due to that appeasement of deniers failing as Turnbull tried and failed within his own party.

    So why would it succeed now?

    Those RWFWs are still there and if Labor lost power why would they tear it down again?

    Of course you’ve ignored my point about Labor having lied throughout the campaign if they did what you proposed.

  37. Scrott and his pricks really do need to go ! Check out this sort of thinking from the happy clapper in chief. From Amy’s blog.

    4m ago 14:24

    Another elderly man basically asks why some fuel sources are demonised and Scott Morrison says he is “always puzzled when any power source attracts such particular partisan attention”.

    “It’s just a gas,” he says.

    “It’s just petroleum.”

    He says that it should just be about the lowest possible cost and we ‘don’t need to engage in a moral debate about it’.

    “It’s just coal. It’s just a power source,” he says.

    “…Why do we get into any value judgement about any of these particular sources because at the end of the day, they are a practical thing, it’s a power source thing.”

  39. So now the worry worts have moved on to “Dear Dear, worry is me. How on earth will Labor get anything through the Senate”

    By negotiation of fecking course.

    Like Bob Hawke, Shorten has spent a large slab of his career negotiating successfully all sorts of things with all sorts of people. And his team are also talented communicators and will be good negotiators and support his efforts. There are no fools like Cash, Fletcher, Andrews, Abbott, Price, Reynolds etc etc whose very presence would annoy wooed Senators, from the get go of any negotiation.

    I have no doubt that Labor will get their big policies passed …… minor compromises of course …… and it’ll be solid work to do it, but FMD that’s what Gillard Labor did and that’s what Shorten Labor will do.

  42. I don’t think Morrison is making the point he thinks he’s making in that above quote posted by Dan Gulberry…

  44. poroti

    Beat you to it. You also left out the bits where he advocates for lead in fuel and paint; asbestos as insulator; cocaine as a method of increasing truckies productivity; ivory as a pretty ornament; whale meat as a source of protein; pouring chemicals into the water because it stops them being dumped on the land.

    And there’s more.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/may/17/federal-campaign-2019-shorten-morrison-hawke-politics-live?page=with:block-5cde34c88f08ea3978d883b2#block-5cde34c88f08ea3978d883b2

  45. Morrison’s reference to climate change being a “moral” issue sums up the idiocy of the right on the topic. It’s not a moral issue in the sense he means – it’s a scientific one. The only moral dimension is whether it’s moral to condemn our children and grandchildren to a horrible future for no good reason.

  47. Katherine Murphy says:
    “The national security committee of cabinet was briefed about all aspects of the American refugee swap deal in late 2016, including the resettlement of two Rwandan men accused of murdering tourists in Uganda.”

    The opposition national security team are often briefed on NatSec matters – so, were Shorten & Plibersek aware of this?
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/may/17/federal-campaign-2019-shorten-morrison-hawke-politics-live

  49. Our great LNP are going to pull off a shock win tonight and bill shorten will have to step down from the labor leadership and Albo will win the leadership ballot

Comments Page 12 of 31
1 … 11 12 13 … 31

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *