Election minus one day

The latest polling collectively suggests swings to Labor in Victoria and Western Australia, but with way too many close results in prospect for the Coalition to be counted out quite yet.

Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)

The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.

Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.

BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.

Original post

To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.

We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.

Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.

Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.

Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.

The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.

Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.

If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,521 comments on “Election minus one day”

Comments Page 13 of 31
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  1. Tonight Wayne? It probably is the Coalition’s style to declare themselves victors before voting has commenced. It was your side after all who came up with the idea of suspending democracy.

  2. “I believe it is breakdown of prepolling. Labor percentage and percentage for all others.”

    I interpreted it as % of pre-polls cast in ALP held seats and % of pre-polls cast in non-ALP held seats – illustrating that slightly more people are doing pre-poll in non-ALP seats compared to Labor.

    No?

  9. BB what do those percentages mean?

    The first list is the average percentage of electors, broken down by state, that have pre-polled. It shows that NSW, VIC, QLD and the NT are high pre-polling states (they have a high rate), while the rest are relatively low.

    The second list is derived the same way, but this time ALP versus Non-ALP seats. It shows that between ALP and non-ALP seats there is very little difference in pre-polling rates.

  13. The Senate just blocking the new Government’s Legislative Agenda is a two edged sword. Labor will proceed to attempt to pass it’s Legislation. If the Opposition and others refuse to let it pass then Labor will have double dissolution triggers to pull. One thing that is coming through loud and clear to me in my various personal and commercial dealings is that people want the Government to get on with the job and if they perceive an antsy Senate is not facilitating that then they’ll deal with them harshly at the ballot box.

    I also agree with Psyclaw in that we are dealing with adults and negotiation to get good outcomes is what the job is all about and is what every Member of Parliament should be aspiring to achieve.

  15. Good on you Wayne, I must admit I admire your tenacity on here.

    What seats do you reckon will change hands? I thought Lev’s analysis above was interesting.

  17. The ASX is responding to the Unemployed figure and the (increasing) speculation that the next RBA Board Meeting will reduce the Cash Rate by a further 25 basis points (and that other cuts will follow), reducing the cost of finance for business

    The AUD is falling, accordingly

    The outcome of the vote tomorrow will be more significant

    In my view, Lowe saying the labour market is significant says that not only is the (increasing) unemployment figure being monitored but, more significant, wages growth will dictate

    My expectation is that any return of a Coalition Government will see the Cash Rate trimmed by 25 basis points to 1.25% at the next Board meeting (and I am one of the view that Labor will form government, comfortably if not very comfortably)

    Given the expected outcome I anticipate the RBA will not move – instead taking confidence from the signalled submission to the FWC by government

    Underpinning this is my belief that the absence of balance between borrowers and savers is so pronounced and so enduring as to inflicting very great damage to the structure of our society

    It is the same fundamental as “a fair day’s pay for a fair day’s work” – and where that fundamental remains under unsustainable pressure and is a danger to the fabric of the Nation and its citizens

    These lack of balances need addressing – from now

    The same in regards the environment and energy sources

    This election is about our children and, more particularly, their children – so our Grand children

  19. Barney

    As long as there are zealots on the other side that are going to tear it up anyway weakening your position is not going to help convince anyone.

    Thats the point. If what you are arguing was possible then we would have had Mr Shorten competing in a very different election with Turnbull as PM and the NEG in place. The appeasement would have worked.

  21. ItzaDream @ #600 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 2:13 pm

    Amy’s had enough. Well and truly.

    I truly hate it when political journos make a song and dance about how sick and tired of it all they are. It’s their job. It’s quite interesting. It’s what they presumably live and breathe for. Stop whining and get on with it – it’s not about you!

  23. KayJay @ #583 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 2:32 pm

    Lance Crossfire @ #546 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 2:08 pm

    Terminator: “Lance Crossfire hey, for balance someone needs to assume the Roger Ramjet alias.”

    The problems will come if there’s a Roger and a Lotta Love. There’d be fireworks between us then.

    By the way, how do you quote others in here? I have no formatting tools at all, just a spellcheck.

    AR has devised an add on for the following —

    Desktop Firefox or Chrome

    and

    Android Firefox

    Obtainable from

    Chrome Extension
    https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/pb-comments-plugin/onjomgpfepfmffelldjhpapljdfiodpi
    Firefox Plugin
    https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/pb-comments-plugin

    Enables quoting, blocking, inbuilt blockquote, preview.

    Brilliant, thanks KayJay & AR!

  24. “…we are dealing with adults and negotiation to get good outcomes is what the job is all about …”

    The problem is that sometimes you get a party who truly believe that the only good outcome is them being the party of government. In that case, no matter how good the policy and how aligned with their own platform, they’ll act to block it just to destabilise the government.

    c.f. Abbott

  27. I’m pretty sure Remeikis is not whinging as much as trying to make herself relatable to her readers and capture the zeitgeist.

  28. Dan Gulberry @ #587 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 2:39 pm

    poroti

    Beat you to it. You also left out the bits where he advocates for lead in fuel and paint; asbestos as insulator; cocaine as a method of increasing truckies productivity; ivory as a pretty ornament; whale meat as a source of protein; pouring chemicals into the water because it stops them being dumped on the land.

    And there’s more.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/may/17/federal-campaign-2019-shorten-morrison-hawke-politics-live?page=with:block-5cde34c88f08ea3978d883b2#block-5cde34c88f08ea3978d883b2

    Wasn’t that Amy?

  29. No tradie I know in Melbourne looks like this!
    Surely this is a parody

    James Campbell
    @J_C_Campbell
    The Liberals’ tradie casting is much better this election. #auspol

  30. sprocket_ @ #550 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 2:12 pm

    Whoa!

    Zali Steggall in to $1.31, Tony Abbott out to $3.30 on Sportsbet #ausvotes

    Outstanding.

    Come to think of it, a Labor loss in which both Abbott and Dutton lose their seats would be a tolerable outcome. Better if Morrison went, too, but that’s not going to happen.

    guytaur @ #618 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 2:54 pm

    Folau decision at 3

    Hm…couldn’t leave it until after the election, I guess.

    I stand by my gut impression that the whole thing has been a deliberate attempt to get a faux culture-war going on in the middle of an election campaign.

  32. Barney

    The point here is to realise its not the Greens that were being extreme. Its been the LNP all along.

  33. rhwombat @ #577 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 2:29 pm

    Lance Crossfire @ #4754 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 11:26 am

    Hi all,

    Reposting as this took a while to pass moderation and was back a few pages.

    I’m normally a lurker but I thought some of you may be interested in a short video explaining preferences that I’ve made.

    I suspect everyone here is across the subject, but you may know first time voters or disengaged types who struggle with it.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7P7nPtrdI8

    Feedback is also appreciated.

    Thanks.

    Thank you Lance. That was excellent, and very helpful.

    Glad you liked it, rhwombat. One day I’ll make one with a decent explanation of the Senate prefs.

  37. I stand by my gut impression that the whole thing has been a deliberate attempt to get a faux culture-war going on in the middle of an election campaign.

    And I would be even less surprised if upon being scrubbed out by Rugby Australia, you see Israel Folau pop up down the track as a candidate for the Morrison Party, er, Liberal Party.

  41. If the coalition wins then it will mean that every time a party has turfed out a PM it has been successful in the following election (except the return to Rudd to save the furniture). Hawke was replaced by Keating who won, Gillard replaced Rudd and won, Rudd replaced Gillard and lost, Turnbull replaced Abbott and won.

  44. joeldipops says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 2:54 pm
    I’m pretty sure Remeikis is not whinging as much as trying to make herself relatable to her readers and capture the zeitgeist

    … extrapolating Morrison’s thinking to its illogical logical conclusion.

    (Also had to blink a couple of times before working out where the quote stopped and the riff began in this post-Abbott, post-Barnaby onion-eating corner of the multiverse.)

  46. I meant to say our great LNP will pull off a shock win tomorrow night and bill shorten will have to step down as labor leader after another crashing defeat…..

    ALP:65

    LNP:80

    Others 6

  49. Sources in Canberra have just told me the word has been given from the PMO to all Ministers offices to begin the destruction of all sensitive papers and the deletion of sensitive files in their offices and connected areas
    Also computer experts have been brought in to assist and speed up the process. This process will continue over the weekend non stop. 😀

  50. If the Coalition wins the election tonight, it is clearly being counted by the same people who used to do the counting of votes in the old eastern bloc!

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