Election minus one day

The latest polling collectively suggests swings to Labor in Victoria and Western Australia, but with way too many close results in prospect for the Coalition to be counted out quite yet.

Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)

The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.

Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.

BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.

Original post

To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.

We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.

Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.

Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.

Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.

The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.

Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.

If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,521 comments on “Election minus one day”

Comments Page 14 of 31
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  1. guytaur @ #632 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 2:59 pm

    @Peter_Fitz tweets

    Folau set to be sacked by Rugby Australia https://www.smh.com.au/sport/rugby-union/folau-set-to-be-sacked-by-rugby-australia-20190514-p51n2g.html via @smh

    Good.

    Also interesting that Shorten has positioned himself as the ‘Folau should get to keep his job’ candidate, while Morrison went for the (in my opinion correct and more reasonable) ‘it’s a contract matter and Folau breached his contract’. Makes it hard for the Coalition to milk it as a ‘religious freedom’ whatsit.

    Clever politicking, if Shorten anticipated this outcome (and its strangely political timing)?

  2. Patrick Bateman @ #621 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 2:52 pm

    ItzaDream @ #600 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 2:13 pm

    Amy’s had enough. Well and truly.

    I truly hate it when political journos make a song and dance about how sick and tired of it all they are. It’s their job. It’s quite interesting. It’s what they presumably live and breathe for. Stop whining and get on with it – it’s not about you!

    You misread me, and /or her P B. I was trying to say that she is sick of the bullshit spewing, not the job, which she seems to be relishing, and putting the boot in, well and good.

  3. guytaur says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 2:57 pm

    Barney

    The point here is to realise its not the Greens that were being extreme. Its been the LNP all along.

    From the Right the Greens are just as extreme as the RWFWs are from the Left!

    It’s all relative to where you stand. 🙂

  7. Ifonly @ #641 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 3:00 pm

    If the coalition wins then it will mean that every time a party has turfed out a PM it has been successful in the following election (except the return to Rudd to save the furniture). Hawke was replaced by Keating who won, Gillard replaced Rudd and won, Rudd replaced Gillard and lost, Turnbull replaced Abbott and won.

    That’s only since 1990. Plenty of cherries to pick prior to that.

  8. Wayne – I’ve checked your work, your numbers look pretty good but you’ve obviously got the party names around the wrong way.

  9. joeldipops @ #627 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 2:24 pm

    I’m pretty sure Remeikis is not whinging as much as trying to make herself relatable to her readers and capture the zeitgeist.

    Yeah, but the zeitgeist is bullshit and destructive, “politics sucks”, “both sides are the same”, “all politicians are terrible” etc. The media shouldn’t be amplifying that crap in order to be ‘relatable’.

  10. Last night clinched a lot of thoughts, and perhaps not just for me. But one of those thoughts was that Morrison’s attempt to be a “good bloke” is a calculated marketing ploy. It was obviously a ploy from the start, but I now think it was based on Hawke. Victoria’s link made me cringe at first but then it made me angry. Morrison’s “bloke” is an act. Hawke, despite or maybe because of his faults, was never a fake.

    Morrison can’t escape the comparisons.
    #NoMoreScoMo

  12. PM Scott Morrison will be vicious tomorrow night and will have a mandate to deliver cuts to hospitals and schools so labor will have to respect that mandate full stop

  15. ItzaDream @ #652 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 2:35 pm

    Patrick Bateman @ #621 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 2:52 pm

    ItzaDream @ #600 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 2:13 pm

    Amy’s had enough. Well and truly.

    I truly hate it when political journos make a song and dance about how sick and tired of it all they are. It’s their job. It’s quite interesting. It’s what they presumably live and breathe for. Stop whining and get on with it – it’s not about you!

    You misread me, and /or her P B. I was trying to say that she is sick of the bullshit spewing, not the job, which she seems to be relishing, and putting the boot in, well and good.

    Ah, I see. Sorry, I thought it was another Anabelle C. “lol politics sucks” type statement.

  17. ar

    Yes. Mr Shorten has been very good on this issue. He gets it.

    In fact I think the own goal by the LNP is going to make legislation to restrict religions doing hate speech easier. We will be back to the inclusive style of government that we had under Hawke Keating. I would have said RGR but I am thinking this election is a big reset. A reset that could not have happened without the RGR government existence.

    Hawk’s passing put the spotlight on it for many but Labor was in front of this and that is why Mr Shorten chose inequality as the theme of his career as leader of the Labor party.

  18. PM Scott Morrison will be vicious tomorrow night and will have a mandate to deliver cuts to hospitals and schools so labor will have to respect that mandate full stop

    Something tells me that, if Shorten wins, the “RESPECT THE MANDATE” talking point that Libs have banged on about for the last 6 years will suddenly be replaced by “It’s the Opposition’s job to oppose!”

  22. There is???

    Hugh Riminton
    @hughriminton
    John Howard predicts “no decisive victory” for either side in #AusVotes2019. “The gap between the parties has narrowed…there’s a whiff of 1993 in the air.”

  26. Steve777 says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 3:00 pm

    A win by anyone tonight would qualify as a shock win.

    There was an “article” last “quoting” Antony Green calling the election on the announcement of Bob Hawkes passing. 😆

  27. @sallymcmanus tweets

    If you are in Melbourne, come to Trades Hall at 6:30pm tonight for a very special celebration of the life of Bob Hawke. @VicUnions

  31. After reading last few hours of Guardian Blog, Scott is either having a breakdown or has suffered a stroke .

  32. RA

    Me thinks Howard is suggesting that the incumbent will unexpectedly be re elected.
    Although the fact that Bob Hawke has passed away just before the election, certainly does not give this election any resemblance to 1993.

  36. Is there any difference methodologically speaking between the YouGov Galaxy Poll and the Newspoll (done by Galaxy)?

  37. The exclusive Ipsos poll also reveals early voters are favouring the Coalition, with 30 per cent of all respondents saying they intended to vote before election day.

    Of those who have cast their votes already, 41 per cent said they backed the Coalition while 33 per cent favoured Labor, indicating higher core support for the government in this group than in the electorate at large.

    Wtf is the rest (26%)

  38. Hi hawksfan

    On the pre-poll voting, I’ve done a little scatter chart of each seat’s 2PP margin and the percentage of pre-poll voting.

    As you outlined, LNP seats have a slightly higher level of pre-poll voting.

    However, the degree of dispersion is very high and I doubt if it is a statistically significant relationship between them

  39. Wayne Rogers
    @CorioboyWayne
    ·
    39m
    Replying to
    @LesStonehouse
    Been watching ABC since 5.30am and pretty much everyone (apart from Librat pollies) are predicting a Labor win. Can’t wait till the 19th so I can have a drink for Bill and Bob and Australia.

  40. I know you all know that deep down that our great LNP will be vicious tomorrow night and Scott Morrison will be our PM for another three years

  41. guytaur says:

    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 2:57 pm

    Barney

    The point here is to realise its not the Greens that were being extreme. Its been the LNP all along.

    From the Right the Greens are just as extreme as the RWFWs are from the Left!

    It’s all relative to where you stand.

    No, facts are not relative to where you stand. Sounds like the bogus kind of excuse that climate change deniers use. Any particular party political opinion or partisan view may bear no relationship to the actual facts or reality.

    Shit or Shit-lite party policies might stand a long way away from the facts of the science regarding climate and ecological sustainability as they scream about how extreme all those others reading the science are being.

    By any scientific measure humans are currently extending an extreme change on the atmopheric, terrestrial and oceanic balance and resources of Earth that has not been seen in hundreds of thousands of years.

    Business as Usual for Shit and Shit lite party might seem all nice, normal and dandy.

    Mother nature doesn’t operate on petty concepts of social extremes held inside some foolish humans mind.

  42. Wild prediction
    Following Labor victory on Saturday night the LNP will implode, as a result there will be enough moderate Liberal senators prepared to support Labor in the Senate to get things passed

  43. Wayne says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 3:11 pm

    PM Scott Morrison will be vicious tomorrow night …

    You are an inspiration to people who never give up because eventually you might get something right.

  46. I do wonder whether some small ‘l’ Coalition voters think to themselves “if ALP is gonna win anyway, we might as well get rid of the knuckle-draggers that have so stymied the past 6 years and refresh the party”

  48. I reiterate
    Advised by sources in Canberra, that instructions have been given by the PMO to Ministers Offices to destroy all sensitive paperwork and delete all files. Additional Computer people have been brought in to assist in the process. This process will continue over the weekend.

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