Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)
The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.
Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.
BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.
Original post
To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.
We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:
Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.
Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.
Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.
Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.
Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.
Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.
The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.
Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.
If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).
But politics does.
Red13 need confirmation of that.
Red13
Peta Credlin, former COS of Abbott, hasn’t got the memo. She says that it isn’t over at all. Every chance the fibs will get up and win.
Red13 @ #697 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 3:25 pm
What does the law say about this sort of behaviour?
Apropos, for my third attempt to get this right, a little bird has reminded me that
Farrah (NSW) counts as too close to call (water, water, nowhere…) and
Macnamara (VIC) is too close to call (LAB vs GRN)
The little bird also told me to watch Mallee (VIC) as well. Actually that was the second little bird that’s told me that, one in left-ear and one in my right-ear, so to speak.
I’m still a bit incredulous about Farrah and Mallee, but if you’re country folk you don’t like your water vanishing.
Because the GRNs and ALP still, after all these years, haven’t negotiated alliance politics properly.
Interesting. News.com.au which has the highest hits of any Australian news web site is running this positive puff piece on Chloe Shorten – is Rupert hedging his bets?
Shannon Molloynews.com.au
Being in the public spotlight is not remotely Chloe Shorten’s natural habitat, as comfortable as she may seem being in it.
But over the past six weeks, the wife of Labor leader Bill Shorten has emerged as a surprise star of the election campaign, her warmth and charm winning over the public.
“I have to kind of gee myself up to do it, talk myself into it a bit,” Ms Shorten admits to news.com.au. “Being in front of the media is not comfortable for me.”
When she’s at an event or in a crowd and feels a bit nervous or out-of-place, she “always looks for Bill”, she says.
“My kids tease me, saying ‘you’re staring at him with those eyes again’,” Ms Shorten laughs.
The couple don’t often give interviews together and during ours, she turns a few times to him to ask: “Is it OK that I said that?”
“Yes, it’s beautiful, darling,” Mr Shorten responds each time.
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/federal-election-2019-bill-and-chloe-shorten-on-politics-sacrifice-their-shared-campaign-and-the-future/news-story/788f9f1e4b595a22007a52311bd1e6c1
Lev Lafayette
Will be very interesting to see how it does in fact play out
“Patrick Bateman says:
Friday, May 17, 2019 at 3:10 pm
joeldipops @ #627 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 2:24 pm
I’m pretty sure Remeikis is not whinging as much as trying to make herself relatable to her readers and capture the zeitgeist.
Yeah, but the zeitgeist is bullshit and destructive, “politics sucks”, “both sides are the same”, “all politicians are terrible” etc. The media shouldn’t be amplifying that crap in order to be ‘relatable’.”
Hear Hear
She seems like a nice enough person and more generally seems to have more courage to take a position away from the flock….but she is almost as bad as the morons at the ABC in terms of the hand wringing and the weird martyr “pity me having to endure this on your behalf” crap
#NoScoMo
Also keep it up @wayne
Suppose Abbott and Dutton lose.
Suppose the Libs go for the usual retribution and Morrison is axed.
Who?
Makes a difference to that question of whether any moderates would vote with Labor.
Quoll,
Since when have political ideologies been fact based? 😆
@DarrenChester
Labor’s brutal social media attack ad in Gippsland has my campaign team reeling. Not sure if we can recover from this. @MikkaylaMossop @rharris334 @tpwkelly #auspol
Look in the mirror guys
Cud
I’d back Frydenberg in that scenario… Assuming he beats Birnside.
“Lev Lafayette says:
Friday, May 17, 2019 at 3:27 pm
Apropos, for my third attempt to get this right, a little bird has reminded me that
Farrah (NSW) counts as too close to call (water, water, nowhere…) and
Macnamara (VIC) is too close to call (LAB vs GRN)
The little bird also told me to watch Mallee (VIC) as well. Actually that was the second little bird that’s told me that, one in left-ear and one in my right-ear, so to speak.
I’m still a bit incredulous about Farrah and Mallee, but if you’re country folk you don’t like your water vanishing.
Because the GRNs and ALP still, after all these years, haven’t negotiated alliance politics properly.”
The Greens, up until this election, has almost totally focussed its energies this last decade on taking gentrifying traditionally red seats and, as part of this strategy, undermining Labor
What alliance would you think they could strike that would be mutually beneficial?
I havent noticed any change. He always looks like he has a copper bunger stuck up his nether mailbox.
Which attack ad is that?
CC
What moderates?
We are talking about people perfectly happy to vote for Abbott’s wrecking legislation. Ditto on his union attacks and the rest.
After nothing happening in Longman suddenly being bombarded with pre-recorded messages. Wish they would go away.
The question is whether Frydenburg would run a tight ship or merely piss people off.
KK, the first female High Court justice Mary Gaudron, and Fiona McCloud with HTVs in Higgins…
Guytaur it depends on unity/discipline. One hopes the Libs become terminally fractious.
The only leader that will be dumped will be bill Shorten as he will have lost two elections in a row.
I would like to be in Scott Morrison shoes as he will be vicious tomorrow night and will win 80 seats in HOR and 39 seats in the senate so he will be able to pass his mandate of cuts to schools and hospitals and give out big business tax breaks
shellbell @ #425 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 3:25 pm
Burt the psychic croc invites you to his pond to thrash it out
CC
Agreed. Meanwhile more good news.
BREAKING: Legislators just passed article 4, which means #Taiwan just legalized same-sex marriage and will be implemented on May 24th
#First in #Asia
#LGBT #LoveWins https://twitter.com/equallovetw/status/1129253330377617408/photo/1
Wouldn’t it be funny if Scotty’s deal with Clive has led to LNP primaries being carved off to UAP, and the preferences returning 50/50? And the cost being a handful of close seats.
Sprocket that’s one effect I’m sure the pollsters aren’t factoring.
…and declare war on China
Cud Chewer
The info came to me, I pass it on, accept or reject.
But there it is.
As to legality, what do u think?
Heard other stuff as well regards these external computer ppl, trying to find out more.
You can do better Wayne. Not your best effort.
News.com.au is surprisingly balanced.
Considering it’s mostly sensationalist stuff. Their political editor Malcolm Farr, despite his long NewsCorpse history, hasn’t seemed to drink the kool-aid.
As an LNP supporter I do not understand why this election is looking to be so close. The ALP should be romping in, much larger than Abbott who got 90 seats. Like Shorten Abbott was also very unpopular. Morrison has campaigned well but no nock out punches. It must come down to the policies which ones I am not sure. Maybe all of them to many to big and too soon has spooked voters. I did hear a group of ALP supporters discussing vehicle torque and how a electric ute could not tow a boat. I think things like that resonate I cant see that changing their vote though, maybe to UAP but never LNP. I had to look up what torque meant.
@Wayne,
You do know that ScoMo has ruled out all of those things, cuts to schools and hospitals and give out big business tax breaks. He has no mandate to do those things and won’t have one after the election. In fact, he has specifically ruled those things out on a number of occasions in public and doesn’t seem to have nay intent on doing that.
If you honestly think that either side could win a senate majority, I would like to know what state they are winning their four seats in? Im sure Jim Molan would be ecstatic with your good news that the Coalition were going to win so big (biggest since 04) that it would be enough for him to keep his seat!
And who knows, even if Labor does lose, they are so unified that they might even keep Bill?
@DarrenChester
Labor’s brutal social media attack ad in Gippsland has my campaign team reeling. Not sure if we can recover from this.
Darren Chester is surely not concerned about his 18% margin?
sprocket_ @ #558 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 2:12 pm
Zali back out to $1.40 and Abbott back in to $2.65
Zali will be a hopeless MP but it’s worth it to put a line under one of the nastiest pieces of student politician to ever crawl out from under a rock.
“Gareth says:
Friday, May 17, 2019 at 3:41 pm
News.com.au is surprisingly balanced.
Considering it’s mostly sensationalist stuff. Their political editor Malcolm Farr, despite his long NewsCorpse history, hasn’t seemed to drink the kool-aid.”
You’d think there was a very deliberate commercial element to adopting that approach
Red13 – It sounds like the Fall of Saigon. Is Bronwyn going to evacuate them off the lawn of Parliament House with her chopper?
“Red13 – It sounds like the Fall of Saigon. Is Bronwyn going to evacuate them off the lawn of Parliament House with her chopper?”
Lol
Red13 @ #697 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 3:25 pm
Any cheap locked filing cabinets going cheap?
I just hope that enough evidence is preserved in NBNco.
I do think that Hawkie may have won his fifth election. I thought that the most likely outcome was going to be a minority ALP Government but now I think there will be a sympathy swing and the ALP will win outright.
Why does Wayne keep saying Morrison WILL be vicious.
He’s a nasty piece of work but ‘vicious’?
It must be remembered that Red13 assurred PB that the laughably fraudulent document implying that senior public servants were planning the Coalition’s campaign was indeed true and that numerous people had risked their careers to leak the document
This was a defamation that approached criminal status. I suspect the current claim is equally defamatory
Conor
So you agree with me that our great LNP will win tomorrow night I’m so pleased that I have a follow believer that will happen
The biggest advantage of electric engines is their torque curve. Would kill any ice.
Madcyril @ #729 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 3:40 pm
Not “infinite monkey” good, sure. But for one monkey, it’s passable.
@Steelydan – Labor doesn’t have the electorates it can be competitive in. Basically 87-90 is close to the absolute ceiling you can expect even from a 54-55% win, whereas best-case scenario is the LNP getting into the mid-90s.
Grime – Yeah, but you’ll have to head out to the Fyshwick yard to pick them up.
Done for the day – heading out to a family birthday party.
I am looking forward to a significant and large ALP win tomorrow – cop that Wayne.
Tomorrow night on PB and with two or three TV channels to switch between should be a highlight of 2019.
So, I just wish all PBers well & hope (most of)their bets come in.
Thanks William for the entertainment and education so far, and quite likely more to come before the year is done.
‘jenauthor says:
Friday, May 17, 2019 at 3:49 pm
Why does Wayne keep saying Morrison WILL be vicious.
He’s a nasty piece of work but ‘vicious’?’
The bot is confusing ‘vicious’ with ‘victorious’?
Back at ya Bool