Election minus one day

The latest polling collectively suggests swings to Labor in Victoria and Western Australia, but with way too many close results in prospect for the Coalition to be counted out quite yet.

Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)

The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.

Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.

BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.

Original post

To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.

We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.

Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.

Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.

Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.

The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.

Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.

If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,521 comments on “Election minus one day”

Comments Page 2 of 31
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  1. ABC an extention of the msm.

    I regularly experience dejavu when visiting the ABC.

    Over at the ABC

    “The real Bill Shorten: pragmatist, dealer, Prime Minister?”

    Laura Tingle

  4. Someone commented above that the Ipsos poll suggests that the early voting favours Coalition by 53/47. How is that deduced?

  5. sprocket_

    The Herald believes that above all else voters must use this election as a chance to put an end to that cycle of instability and with that in mind there is no choice but to endorse Bill Shorten and the ALP

    A real WOW !!

    Rocket Rocket
    Yep that’s how I see it.

  6. I think this was expected. He was certainly making ‘I’m going to run’ noises when he was on Real Time a few weeks ago.

    Bill de Blasio, the Democratic mayor of New York City, announced on Thursday that he was running for president, seeking to show that his brand of urban progressive leadership can be a model for the rest of the nation.

    It will be a steep challenge: He becomes the 23rd Democrat to enter the presidential race, and he does so against the counsel of many of his trusted advisers, and in the face of two centuries of history.

    No sitting mayor has been elected to the presidency, and if Mr. de Blasio, 58, is to be the first, he must overcome daunting deficits in polls and fund-raising.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/16/nyregion/bill-de-blasio-president.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  7. Morning peeps,

    have been out of country for 3 weeks and havent followed the campaign at all. I dont know if its my age, some fatigue after following the imcompetent travails of May and Trump in detail, or just something about the propositions on offer this time around – but i havent been less interested or engaged in a federal electon psephological obsession since a child in the early 80s.

    not that it matters really, my vote was decided long ago and nothing was going to change it.

    but on a purely non-partisan psephological (sp?) note, what do we think the over-under for ALP Reps seats stands at right now? My feeling is around 81 seats. Comfortable win but not the baseball bat landslide only seemingly reserved for ALP governments.

    About right / too bullish / too conservative?

    Need to get my list of indicative seats to follow in detail tomorrow night. I would probably give 5 seat wins away just to be rid of Dutton, Abbott and (to a lesser extent) Porter.

  8. Maybe it’s too early but we cannot avoid the question. What will this mean for the election?

    Having campaigned on the ground in Dickson for the past 6 months for Labor I was not too surprised by the 2PP seat poll. I’ve made more than 700 phone calls in that time and have spoken to maybe 200 people. It’s tight, too tight for anyone to call this seat on the night.

    Very unscientifically I have a hunch that Bob’s passing will see about 0.5% of undecided voters move into the Labor tent. Perhaps they might not have otherwise. That’s about 500 votes in a seat like Dickson. Peter Dutton won by just 1,600 votes last time. The Ali France campaign in Dickson has made 90,000 phone calls in the past 12 months and those phone calls matter right now.

    Peter Dutton is liked in Dickson. Queenslanders are a parochial group of people and Dickson more so than most city edge suburban/rural seats. Peter has spent more than $1million on this campaign and has the full weight of Murdoch press behind him with full front page coverage a number of times.

    I expect a full recount in Dickson and I am unable to say that one party or the other will win it.

  10. On a purely andectotal note, after a couple of weeks hanging with good friends and astute political followers on the East Coast of the USA… i dont know how they manage. If you put on MSNBC in the mornings (as they do) each day, you are consumed with such outrage at the atrocity of the current regime… after 2-3 days i was losing my mind lol! I think no choice but to switch off just to cope, but obviously have a steely resolve to vote and help in 18 months time. Its such an unnatural way to be, but these are unnatural times. Australia not close by comparison, but i wont lie that these last 6 months especially have headed in a similar direction for me.

  11. The herald endorsing the alp? Nice.
    They have crunched the numbers and realised scomo is done for.
    Plus victoria is becoming too progressive for their readership.

  13. To help Australians cast their vote at the polling booths on Saturday, The New Daily has compared policies of the two major parties around key election issues.

    Reading this, the parties do not look so very different, but it is deceptive because there is no hint of the philosophical differences behind their policies and it does not dive deeply enough into the total scene.

    I am not happy about their summary. 🙁

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/05/16/key-election-promises-explained/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020190517

  14. I notice that on three occasions Morrison has included a line about “remembering Hazel Hawke too” in his rehearsed lines about Bob’s death. My only conclusion that he is ‘dog whistling’ the idea that Hawke was a philanderer, particularly when the fact that Hazel died about 6 years ago. I’m open to any other suggestions …

  15. Expat Follower, and anyone collecting guesses,

    I think you are most probably correct with a guess of around 81 seats. I think on the balance of probabilities, assuming the bookies are not too far wrong, Labor will get 76 seats minimum.

    I also think that given the Coalition is a bit stale, the undecideds will break slightly more for Labor, so 81 is a good guess.

    However, I chose the number to be 89 seats to Labor, a long time ago, when the polls we’re more ebullient for Labor, but I am sticking with this guess now.

  19. Dubopov,
    Just another women he can add to his list:
    Jenny
    His mum
    Hazel
    Showing how much he cares about women

  24. The dreaded Philip Ruddock was on The Drum yesterday and showed he has no idea how to conduct a civilised conversation. I believe he is some sort of ‘boss’ in the NSW Liberal Party. Says a lot.

    Urban Wronski
    ‏@UrbanWronski
    13h13 hours ago

    Ruddock talks over Ellen Fanning and bullies other women panel members on ABC The Drum to browbeat them with his case that Rwandan refugees traded from the US are OK, because, well, he knows better. In one episode, Ruddock personifies the arrogant chauvinism of the Liberal Party.

  26. Not sure what affect it might have, if any, but how ironic it would be if the death of Bob Hawke turned out to be a black swan event that buried the Liberals. His final gift to the party he loved.

  28. I’m sticking with my prediction of over 80 seats.

    Lucky I don’t have to go far for polling just down the road lol!

    I put my money on ALP $10 and gave $10 directly to ALP.

  29. C@t
    Maybe Scott was being generous for once, mentioning Hazel may just be an acknowledgement that both Hazel & Bob were popular, in the way that Tamie Frazer was respected.

    So at this time it’s fair enough to remover both.

  30. Not sure what affect it might have, if any, but how ironic it would be if the death of Bob Hawke turned out to be a black swan event that buried the Liberals. His final gift to the party he loved.

    Not a black swan – Hawke knew last year that he might not live to see Labor returned.

    Let’s call it a Silver Budgie[sic] moment.

  34. Racist dog whistling has become such an integral tool for the coalition. Thankfully this election has been a bit tamer. The only lib leader to be above this nasty crap would have been Malcolm Fraser.

  35. BK @ #80 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 8:10 am

    Let’s not see any more Zanetti cartoons.
    ____
    Steve777
    I have a duty to provide a semblance of balance.

    Sure, one day you might post something that’s positive about religion, it’s role in the broad community and the Catholic Church too.

  37. Van Badham
    I’m going to share the story that Bob Hawke told us at the ACTU’s 90th party in Sydney two years ago. There was a lot in it that needs to be remembered – about him, about us, about the working class.

    Bob Hawke began by telling the audience that he was never a communist, and that he had more than a few scraps with communist unionists, but when he was at the ACTU he was obliged one day to go down to the docks in Balmain (imagine), and the docks were communist.

    The union organiser took him down to the gates of the where there there a crowd of working class women waiting. And Hawke asked the organiser what the women were doing there. The organiser explained that they were there because the foreman would assigned the shifts to the women’s
    … fathers, husbands, sons or brothers the next day if he picked them, and they put out. The men didn’t know this, the organiser said – or if they did, they were too torn with shame to admit it, as if it amounted to their own failure. But those shifts were crucial…
    … families were poor, children went hungry.

    Hawke stood at that gate horrified that bosses were willing to exploit their power in this worst of ways, that powerlessness, poverty, and the instability of work could drive families into these desperate, desperate bargains…

    What he described was something he’d seen sixty years ago, but he told the story in that room full of people as if he were still staring at those gates, the crowd of waiting women. He said “I was never a communist. But at that moment I understood why people became communists.”

  39. Steve777

    If Labor win on Saturday you can look at a Zanetti cartoon and smile at the thought of how pissed he will be and the 3 years of impotent rage he faces.

  42. Lynchpin,

    Not sure if it was stated, but it is the only way a pollster could gauge who has already voted.
    It requires a single yes/no question to be added to the survey.

    Voterchoice project has been asking respondents if they had already voted for last couple surveys.

  43. “Crucial election …….vote for selfishness or for investment in the country

    Concerned our country has become selfish”

    The bigger concern is that extent to which it may have become paranoid with many folk incapable of grasping that Labor’s reforms won’t adversly affect them, but labor’s positive programs are likely to benefit them directly.

  44. Still quite sad about Hawke’s passing. I was too young to really be aware of what his government were doing, but Australian politics of that time seemed to be in such a better place – a place I’m not sure we will ever return to sadly.

  45. sprocket_ says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 7:11 am

    Is this the first time in 125 years that the Sydney Morning Herald editors have endorsed Labor?

    No, it’s the first time since 2010. SMH has endorsed all of Hawke, Rudd, and Gillard at least once each. Not sure about Keating, suspect not.

  46. Dan Gulberry

    Having Zanetti is good. He is a regular reminder of the shit Labor is up against and how despicable Mordor Media is.

  47. Darn:

    [‘Not sure what affect it might have, if any, but how ironic it would be if the death of Bob Hawke turned out to be a black swan event that buried the Liberals. His final gift to the party he loved.’]

    I’m with you on that, the obits highlighting a lot of the great reforms of the Hawke & Keating governments.

  49. Looking back at all the footage from the Hawke era is a reminder that Labor can put a spring in people’s step. From the over-stimulation of the Whitlam era we lurched to the oppressive boredom of Fraser, along with surely one of Australia’s most pathetic ever Treasurers in John Howard. Then to the Hawke-Keating era, no-one could call it boring, it was a time when Australia stepped out onto the global stage. And then Howard, like watching paint dry. A few missteps under R-G-R but at least Australia felt like a young, vibrant and relevant nation. As for Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison, my god they’ve managed to distill all the worst aspects of previous Liberal governments into one glutinous mass of incompetent nothingness. I’d say to younger voters if you want stasis, boredom and plenty of mistakes along the way, vote LNP. If you want a bit of zip and zing, a bit of forward momentum (and no doubt a few mistakes along the way, that’s the nature of governments) vote Labor. If Labor gets up it will feel like Spring has sprung even though it’s Autumn.

  50. Pithicus:
    “Racist dog whistling has become such an integral tool for the coalition. Thankfully this election has been a bit tamer. The only lib leader to be above this nasty crap would have been Malcolm Fraser.”

    That’s true. Thinking back to earlier in the year before the campaign proper, I think that we can say it was initially part of the plan (Medivac, reopening Christmas Island and Morrison shouting invitations to people-smugglers to send some boats) but “Events” intervened.

    Malcolm Fraser was certainly above it, as attested in his response to the first “boats” in the late 70s. Peacock and Hewson didn’t dogwhistle as I recall. Downer probably would have if he thought he’d gain an advantage. I do recall the Coalition response to Mabo and how we were told by right wingers that Native Title claims would take your back yard. The technique became a standard part of “Liberal” tactics with Howard.

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