Election minus one day

The latest polling collectively suggests swings to Labor in Victoria and Western Australia, but with way too many close results in prospect for the Coalition to be counted out quite yet.

Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)

The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.

Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.

BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.

Original post

To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.

We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.

Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.

Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.

Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.

The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.

Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.

If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,521 comments on “Election minus one day”

Comments Page 3 of 31
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  1. Lynchpin,

    It looks like IPSOS has asked two questions – “have you voted early”, and if the respondent answered no “are you intending to vote early”.

    The exclusive Ipsos poll also reveals early voters are favouring the Coalition, with 30 per cent of all respondents saying they intended to vote before election day.

    Of those who have cast their votes already, 41 per cent said they backed the Coalition while 33 per cent favoured Labor, indicating higher core support for the government in this group than in the electorate at large.

  2. I do hope that First Nation communities will support Labor and have not been deceived by LNP lies.

    In an interview with The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, Senator Dodson said a Labor government would immediately set about establishing regional assemblies for Indigenous communities to have a say over government services in their area, with the longer term work of constitutional change occurring simultaneously.

    He said the assemblies were about people “wanting a greater say over their own affairs and the strategies and policies that affect their lives” and their introduction would bring about changes that were visible to communities.

    https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/no-magic-wand-patrick-dodson-promises-new-relationship-with-indigenous-people-20190516-p51o05.html

  3. “If Labor gets up it will feel like Spring has sprung even though it’s Autumn.”

    Exactly. And if they don’t it will feel like the start if one of those long Winters in Game of Thrones.

  4. I was too young to really be aware of what his government were doing

    Same. I would’ve been in primary school when he was first elected. I can remember more of what the Keating govt did than the Hawke govt.

  6. BK,
    “BK @ #81 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 6:10 am
    Let’s not see any more Zanetti cartoons.
    ____
    Steve777
    I have a duty to provide a semblance of balance.”

    Perhaps Zanetti, vile as he is, could be included as a link so that Bludgers can choose whether look at his stuff.

  12. With all this talk, nay celebration of Labor’s past achievements economic and otherwise, just imagine if Labor claimed and defended it’s legacy more often and with confidence and enthusiasm, crappy bullshit ads like ‘Labor can’t manage money’ just wouldn’t work, probably wouldn’t run.

    Memo to ALP; work on this now and over the next 3 years, in the lead up to the 2022 campaign.
    Three solid years of Liberal Myth Busting.
    Bob points the way even from the other side.

  15. The polls have landed on 51/49 apart from Essential.
    The marginal seats are more or less evenly balanced.
    Really want this election to be called early tomorrow evening in favour of team Labor.

  18. Munro @8:31.
    “Memo to ALP; work on this now and over the next 3 years, in the lead up to the 2022 campaign.
    Three solid years of Liberal Myth Busting.
    Bob points the way even from the other side.”

    Win or lose, that’s an excellent idea.

  19. AEC (@AusElectoralCom)
    4.05m votes have been cast at early voting centres as of COB yesterday. 533k were cast yesterday. #ausvotes

  20. Good to see you so positive Mundo….lol
    I think Labor will win…..don’t care if it’s just a 1 seat majority……..they’ll set the agenda…….not the Libs.

  21. Steve777 @ #114 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 8:37 am

    Munro @8:31.
    “Memo to ALP; work on this now and over the next 3 years, in the lead up to the 2022 campaign.
    Three solid years of Liberal Myth Busting.
    Bob points the way even from the other side.”

    Win or lose, that’s an excellent idea.

    Thanks 777
    Every other time I’ve suggested something similar I get called a concern troll.
    Makes a nice change.

  22. Hawke won several close and hard fought elections. They were not landslides. Then as now, those who benefitted from the things that held Australia back fought to keep their privileges.

    One of the many lessons of Hawke is to fight for what you believe in. Shorten has a good program to deliver in government. He, and Labor, need to fight for it as Hawke did. By all means negotiate where possible, but not weakly.

    Hawke would have cancelled Adani, and not let small vested interests dictate national policy.

  23. lizzie
    Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 8:14 am
    Comment #85

    Hawke stood at that gate horrified that bosses were willing to exploit their power in this worst of ways, that powerlessness, poverty, and the instability of work could drive families into these desperate, desperate bargains…

    What he described was something he’d seen sixty years ago, but he told the story in that room full of people as if he were still staring at those gates, the crowd of waiting women. He said “I was never a communist. But at that moment I understood why people became communists.”

    The spirit lives on – wage theft – short shifts – interns –

    Aux armes, citoyens!
    Formez vos bataillons

    I am currently searching for an emoji to represent the

    bloodsucking sociopaths

    of the current (until tomorrow) so called gummint. 😈

  26. Interesting comment from Mark the Ballot on poll herding.

    I must admit that the under-dispersion of the recent polls troubles me a little. If the polls were normally distributed, I would expect to see poll results outside of this one-point spread for each side. Because there is under-dispersion, I have wondered about the likelihood of a polling failure (in either direction). Has the under-dispersion come about randomly (unlikely but not impossible). Or is it an artefact of some process, such as online polling? Herding? Pollster self-censorship? Or some other process I have not identified?

    What caught my eye is that he refers to online polling as one of the possible causes. I saw an interview between Andrew Bolt and the bloke who runs Newspoll about three weeks ago. Bolt was asking him about the drawbacks of trying to contact people by phone these days and I am certain that he said none of their polling is done by phone anymore. It is all done online.

    We know that the Essential polling is all done online. Don’t know about Ipsos, but Morgan is all face to face and he came up with 52-48 a week ago.

    The other point of interest in MTB’s analysis is that IF the polling has got it wrong it could go either way (as Kevin Bonham has also indicated in his post this morning). I guess that means that despite expectations of a tight contest Labor could win by a street or the Coalition could win outright.

    All of which makes me feel a little uneasy and wishing the whole bloody thing was over.

  27. With the usual “seat polls are unreliable as shit” caveat, those WA ones look pretty encouraging. Taking the rest of the country into account, you’d have to assume that only a couple would need to fall Labor’s way to deliver a majority.

  29. Does anyone have a picture of what the pollbludger voting intentions were right before the 2016 election?

    Would be cool to see what it looked like compared to now

  31. Confessions @ #102 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 8:27 am

    I was too young to really be aware of what his government were doing

    Same. I would’ve been in primary school when he was first elected. I can remember more of what the Keating govt did than the Hawke govt.

    The great majority of the voting public either don’t know, don’t remember, or variations on those…..imagine if these things were part of how Labor always framed itself.
    The level of political disengagement in this country requires the Labor party to constantly remind and proselytise. Particularly in the face of a constant and relentless Liberal party disinformation campaign

  32. Final predictions
    ————-
    Labor gains from Liberal: Forde, Dunkley (notional Labor), Chisholm, Corangamite
    Liberal gains from Labor: Herbert, Lindsay, Bass, Braddon
    Liberal gains from IND: Wentworth, Indi
    IND gains from Liberal: Farrer
    Total: Coalition – 75 Labor – 71 Green -1 KAP -1 Independent – 3

    Coalition to win a minority government with confidence and supply agreement with KAP
    Farrer independent to join the National Party within 6 months – providing a majority government.

    Two party preferred: final – 50.2 to Labor (51.2 on the night)

    WOW moment: Bill Shorten declaring victory on the night with Labor seemingly on track for majority, then having to retract it after multiple seats switch back in the post counting with record prepolling.

  33. Average swing to Labor for all of the single-seat polls released yesterday is 2.65%. Sample size is probably north of 7500. Shame the seats are so blatantly cherry-picked.

  34. Darn

    Yep. Based on this, it could be a small majority by either side, hung parliament, or landslide.
    Take your pick!
    I want it to be a win to Labor, much like what happened In Victoria. Not even Daniel Andrews and his team, saw the size of that win.
    Yet my mind is focused on 77 seats to Labor. I want to be 100% percent wrong and for it to be a landslide win to team Labor.

  35. Douglas and Milko says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 4:45 am
    From Alice Workman -Scott Morrison at the National Press Club yesterday:

    “I will burn for you everyday, every single day, so you can achieve your ambitions, your aspirations, your desires,” Scott Morrison, NPC. “The hunger for Australia and achieving the aspirations of Australia – it is burning deep within me.”— Alice Workman (@workmanalice) May 16, 2019
    What does that even mean???

    Call the fire brigade!

  36. Fess

    No doubt so much wrangling is going on behind the scenes in Trumplandia, but looking from the outside, it is grim at the present time. Sigh…..

  37. Darn,

    The current IPSOS is phone polling..

    The survey has a margin of error of 2.3 per cent and was conducted by telephone with 46 per cent of the sample based on mobile phone calls.

  38. A different Michael @ #126 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 8:46 am

    Voter choice reckons the franking credits issue is biting- and costing labor.

    https://www.voterchoice.com.au/weekly-4-part-2-franking-credits/

    Mostly because it was never adequately explained what EXCESS franking credits meant.
    Once the EXCESS got left out it was all over. It’s like When JG said oh ok call it a tax then.
    Wrong. Labor should have clearly and slowly (Chris Bowen) expalined and re-explained EXCESS franking credits every single time.

  39. Flags are flying at half-mast today in tribute to former PM Bob Hawke, and the final day’s election campaigns have been thrown into disarray.

    Labor leader Bill Shorten was due to campaign in Brisbane’s marginal seats today, but those plans have been scrapped in light of Hawke’s death.

    His media bus is now returning to Sydney to join Shorten (who never made it to Brisbane). He is expected to hold one event in Sydney before travelling back to Melbourne this afternoon.

    The line out of Shorten’s campaign team is “sad but focussed”.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-express-friday-may-17-2019-20190516-p51nx4.html

  40. Labor has been setting the agenda throughout the past term after the slim win by Turnbull. They will continue to do so after tomorrow.

    Both liberal and labor sources cited in the AFR, and also from a very well connected source of mine (senior ABC broadcaster), think labor will win.

    In Victoria, labor expect to pick up 3 but may get 6. If the changes across rest of the country net off, Victoria will win it for Labor. Thanks Dutts.

    Edit**
    Personally though, I think it will be Labor by at least 10 seats (based on prior examples of skewing of seat polling towards the evil side).

  43. A photo to cheer up the troops.
    .
    .
    ‘You’ve done very well, son’: Bob Hawke’s final moments with Bill Shorten

    Labor leader Bill Shorten during his last meeting with former prime minister Bob Hawke.

  44. Confessions

    I agree it is a pity many are too young to remember the achievements of Labor as economic managers under Hawke and Keating. They inherited an Australia in recession thanks to the mismanagement of Fraser and his then treasurer “honest John” Howard. He had been given the title in sarcasm, having been caught out lying in parliament. He was a hopeless treasurer.

  45. Alan Jones is giving a lengthy tribute to Abbott and the treatment he has received during the campaign. A woman has called in and is crying: “I’m not religious but they did the same to Jesus. Keep going. We love you.”

    xD

  46. From the voter choice article.

    We’ve been tracking a considerable volume of voters shifting their vote intention on this issue alone – we estimate it has cost Labor around 9% in primary votes. Most of those are moving to The Greens or other minor party so come back in preferences,which is what was creating the decreasing primary vote while the 2PP has increased or been stable. And some have come back because they couldn’t find a better option, but about 2-3% of the vote has projected from Labor to the Coalition and they will not come back

  47. citizen @ #132 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 8:50 am

    Douglas and Milko says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 4:45 am
    From Alice Workman -Scott Morrison at the National Press Club yesterday:

    “I will burn for you everyday, every single day, so you can achieve your ambitions, your aspirations, your desires,” Scott Morrison, NPC. “The hunger for Australia and achieving the aspirations of Australia – it is burning deep within me.”— Alice Workman (@workmanalice) May 16, 2019
    What does that even mean???

    Call the fire brigade!

    Scomo needs a good dose of Preparation H
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hr1VX8ecJv0

  48. SMH endorses Labor.
    Anyone here game enough to read the Strayan?

    Presumably the Toiletpaper is going with Scott Australia needs you!

    Fin Rev endorsed the Coalition. FFS

  49. Alan Jones is giving a lengthy tribute to Abbott and the treatment he has received during the campaign. A woman has called in and is crying: “I’m not religious but they did the same to Jesus. Keep going. We love you.”

    Jesus wept…

    “He’s not the messiah – he’s a very naughty boy!”

  50. Socrates @ #141 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 8:55 am

    Confessions

    I agree it is a pity many are too young to remember the achievements of Labor as economic managers under Hawke and Keating. They inherited an Australia in recession thanks to the mismanagement of Fraser and his then treasurer “honest John” Howard. He had been given the title in sarcasm, having been caught out lying in parliament. He was a hopeless treasurer.

    Pity many are too young to remember the achievements of Labor as economic managers under Hawke and Keating, Rudd, Gillard, Chifley, Whitlam…there’s a lot more to Labor than just Bob and Paul.

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