Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)
The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.
Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.
BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.
Original post
To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.
We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:
Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.
Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.
Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.
Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.
Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.
Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.
The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.
Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.
If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).
mundo @ #176 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 9:27 am
That will be the very least of your problems if they win.
I remain on my prediction of 81 seats to Labor.
Also: Seat polls are bullshit and at least half will break to Labor. You heard it here first!
“Having a debate with a mate – have the betting / bookies markets ever been wrong in terms of predicting the winner of an Australian election?”
Regularly at state elections. They NEARLY got it wrong at the 2010 Federal when they were far too bullish on Gillard retaining government, and of course before that there had not been a close Federal election since what, 1998? I don’t know if bookies were even publishing election odds (or allowed to do so) in 1998.
The betting markets basically follow the published polling. Every opportunity in recent years where the polling has been wrong about individual seats or swings (e.g. Tasmania in the 2016 federal election) the betting markets missed too. They have pretty much no predictive value.
Love this from Guardian cartoonist David Squires about right wing shock jocks and what they would do if their mums were caught out breaking the law…..lol
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Remembering the great Labor achievements of the past….
I recall someone ringing Jon Faine after Whitlam died and told him of her mother dieting of cancer. It was at the time when Whitlam introduced healthcare reform. To her family this was a great relief as they were coping with the stress of a dying mother/wife and worrying about the huge medical bills and how they were going to pay for them. That weight was taken off their shoulders.
People forget what it was like, it is good to remind them from time to time.
Now Morrison has admonished Abbott, and Abbott has gone on radio and doubled down.
May this be the last, and of course totally ungracious, act by Abbott as a Member of Parliament.
I think my friend Andrew Gee will be okay in Calare. Judging by his facebook page, if someone is opening something, or being awarded something – he is there.
If someone opened a store selling letter openers, he would be there for the opening.
https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2019/16/2019/1557985000/disappearing-pm
Brutal
“The pre-poll voting data in this spreadsheet includes all the pre-poll votes cast at pre-poll voting centres (PPVCs) and AEC divisional offices for the 2019 federal election. The spreadsheet includes a breakdown of the number of pre-poll votes taken at every PPVC and divisional offices for every day of the pre-poll voting period. ” (Updated 16/5.)
https://aec.gov.au/election/downloads.htm
Steve Bloom says:
Friday, May 17, 2019 at 9:29 am
I didn’t see anyone else ask, so I will: Hawke death bump for Labor? (H/t to screenwriters of Veep for the pithy phrase.
At the very least it removes from the last couple of days an opportunity to scare enough voters or for news ltd to drop one last bomb
The upside is substantial though
-The Hawke government introduced medicare as its greatest social policy reform achievement bring the focus on to that
-A stack of people voted for Hawke that now tend to vote conservative as they’ve aged….any waverers in that category may be motivated to come back
-Most of the voting population were alive when Hawke was PM. The last two days of the campaign will be dominated by pro Labor nostalgia.
I think it helps get Labor over the line, it is just a matter of degree
So the first Liberal troll has pissed off from PB?
Good.
I’m still confident in 80+ seats for Labor. While there will almost certainly be some surprises and weird swings on the night, there are a lot of vulnerable Coalition seats, and not a whole lot of opportunities for gains on their part. Unless there is an incredibly uneven swing or the polls have been systematically underestimating support for the Coalition, I can’t see Morrison still being PM come Sunday.*
Could well be wrong, though I sure hope I’m not.
(* Yes, yes, I do realise he’s unlikely to actually stand down until sometime next week.)
briefly @ #189 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 9:35 am
No way. Young people and people eager to just vote the Coalition out and be done with it have been voting early. The poll that gives early voting 53-47 to the Coalition is a nonsense.
Arky @ #197 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 9:42 am
Don’t know about that. The published polling says that the Libs have won the prepoll by a convincing 53-47 margin and are only behind by 51-49 with everyone else. That either makes it a tossup, if not making the Libs clear favorites. Yet the betting markets say:
Sportsbet – $1.14 Labor, $5.75 Coalition
Ladbrokes – $1.12 Labor, $6.00 Coalition
Betfair – $1.16 Labor, $7.00 Coalition
Same goes for some of the individual seats, like Dickson. The polls say Dutton is looking at an easy retain. Sportsbet has it $1.60 to Labor, $2.10 to Dutton. Bass is the seat that polls showed the Coalition winning by a huge margin, yet the money is on Braddon being the one that flips and Bass remaining Labor.
If the betting markets are following the published polling, they’re not doing a very good job of it. If the published polling is correct, there’s a lot of easy money to be made.
C@tmomma @ #205 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 9:48 am
If you’re referring to me then you’re dumber than I thought. And less generous of spirit than I’d expect.
Did you get an email from Shorten this morning thanking you for your support?
I did.
Get fcked.
Seat polls being what they are … I reckon there will be enough gains in Vic SEQld and WA to get Labor over the line
There’s a swing on I reckon
I do wish people would stop referring to every person who diverges from the majority view as a troll.
Mundo doesn’t strike me as a troll, just incredibly pessimistic.
Personally I don’t think Labor will get to 80 seats but I’m happy to be proved wrong. I’ll stick with my earlier prediction of 76 seats, but tbh I wouldn’t be surprised with a little less.
When the PM comes on tv my dear old mother reaches for the remote to mute him. I don’t understand how his approval ratings are relatively ok.
Of those who have cast their votes already, 41 per cent said they backed the Coalition while 33 per cent favoured Labor, indicating higher core support for the government in this group than in the electorate at large.
Is the pre-polling mostly in Coalition or Labor seats? Marginals?
Also I find it interesting that Ipsos has managed to pick the percentage of early voters pretty accurately. It’s the one metric in this election so far that can be checked.
Just sayin’ …
On the irrational belief that the Liberals are “better economic managers”:
“People will always default, no matter how many times they’re told the facts about the Lib economic record, that the Tories are the best economic managers. Right of centre parties throughout the world have this going for them. ”
I think this is partly due to the financial media. Just as the objectivity of the MSM goes out the window when reporting on themselves, so to with the financial media when reporting economic policy. Papers like the Fin rely on the support of large corporations and corporate executives buying it. Things that are good for big business, even if bad for the economy as a whole, get praise. Right of centre parties are in the pockets of big business, and so do more of the things that earn the praise of the financial press.
Betting markets are a self-selected sample in at least three ways:
– they comprise people who gamble. If you exclude lotteries/lotto, maybe about 10% of the population.
– they skew male
– they are optimists
Already voted polling will be very selective/inaccurate … how anyone would put faith in that fig is the way to madness.
“Same goes for some of the individual seats, like Dickson. The polls say Dutton is looking at an easy retain. Sportsbet has it $1.60 to Labor, $2.10 to Dutton. Bass is the seat that polls showed the Coalition winning by a huge margin, yet the money is on Braddon being the one that flips and Bass remaining Labor.
If the betting markets are following the published polling, they’re not doing a very good job of it. If the published polling is correct, there’s a lot of easy money to be made.”
The polls don’t say that at all! Which polls are you talking about?
There is one gallaxy poll that barely gets Dutton over the line with the very favourable assumed distributions PHON and UAP…and it is well within the MOE
If ever there was an appropriate time for someone to say something inappropriate about a person who has just passed away it was Abbott and now. God bless you Tony and good riddance.
Asha
+1
Dear Mundo, (obviously I’ve changed my name in this paste)
The finance team at Labor Campaign HQ pulled together our list of our grassroots donors for the campaign, and you were on it.
Thank you so much for stepping up when it counted most. It means a lot. It really matters.
Please don’t refer to me as a troll.
It’s offensive.
Primaries for Labor are fine in galaxy. Nothing there concerns me apart from yet another national polls at 51/49.
Mundo, you don’t need to prove your Labor creds to anyone.
mundo @ #208 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 9:52 am
With ‘friends’ like you, Labor doesn’t need enemies.. I hope you realise that you have brought the blog down the whole election campaign? Thanks for your support. Not.
Anyway, you may be pleased to know that all the Labor supporters will be standing in front of posters of Scott Morrison tomorrow, holding his precious lump of coal. Obviously more strategic thinkers than you will ever be have decided that that will be the last impression of Scott Morrison voters get before they go into the polling booth.
So, now can you do as you promised and piss off for 6 months? Or just change your nom to ‘buzz kill’ and be done with it. At least people would know to just give your posts the wide berth they deserve.
I was considering having a bet on the Coalition.
Seeing as I never win anything, this would almost certainly cause a Labor victory.
mundo is not a troll and their real name is Marvin.
You can find him selling his t-shirts down the markets.
C@tmomma @ #221 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 10:01 am
I was right.
You are dumber than I thought.
I’m staying now.
Asha Leu
“Could well be wrong, though I sure hope I’m not.”
You won’t be wrong
Positive vibes are needed on pb on the penultimate day.
A couple of bed wetters will chime in soon and the whole mood will flip.
The trick is not to ruminate on doom post’s too much.
a r @ #207 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 7:51 am
Exactly. It is utterly meaningless as any indication of how pre-pollers actually voted.
What it means is that of all the people who have pre-polled PURELY OF THOSE WHO WERE ASKED IN THIS ONE OFF POLL favoured the Coalition 53/47.
The number of people who met both criteria (pre-polled and responded to this poll) would be but a small subset of those that actually have pre-polled.
I remain comfortably confident of a clear majority of seats being obtained by the Labor team tomorrow.
Let’s discuss politics rather than each other!
Some dripping sarcasm from Joe Aston in the AFR – on Shorten ‘offering’ a job to mesma –
Anyhow, Shorten dead set didn’t say he was considering Bishop for the DC posting Hockey is due to vacate in January. To the contrary, he actually referred to her own comments on Monday that “I’m not looking to get a government job. I’m very happy to pursue opportunities in the private sector.”
The Labor leader was charming 600 businesspeople in Perth, watched on by a couple of Hartcher’s scribbling disciples. It’s called playing to your audience (the “to” being optional).
The full article is worth a read –
https://www.afr.com/rear-window/shorten-will-never-ever-send-jbish-to-washington-20190516-p51o20
Anyone with even a basic knowledge of polling ought to know that Ipsos reading of 53/47 to the Coalition in voters who’ve already voted isn’t worth the paper it’s written on. First, it’s a reading of a subset of the sample. Secondly, the subset hasn’t been weighted as the sample has.
Lecihardt poll 51-49 btw (LNP in front). Improving Labor primary, LNP about where it was. It’s probably a little out of reach.
I’ve already wagered $200 on the election.
I had $33 (limited by the site) on Labor to get ten seats or less in Queensland at $8.50, I had $10 on the Coalition to get 20 or more seats in Queensland at $26, and $157 on the Coalition to form government at $6.
If the Coalition somehow wins, I will almost certainly win all three wagers, and make a net profit of $1,282.
If Labor wins the election and gets less than a net gain of plus three in Queensland, I will still be in profit.
Either way it’s enough that I will at least have enough dough to drown myself in liquor in the event of a negative result.
What are the Primaries of the poll in the Yougov Dailytele that had the 2PP at 51:49?
Allegedly intelligent people claiming Labor should have pledged from opposition to block Adani if it came into government is contradictory.
Any such decision made in government, after a pledge given while in opposition, would have been overturned in court. It is hard to take people seriously when they promote a strategy that would result in the opposite of what they claim to want.
“The published polling says that the Libs have won the prepoll by a convincing 53-47 margin and are only behind by 51-49 with everyone else”
Er, not quite. The 51-49 includes the early voters. If you split the cohorts, the remaining people who are to vote are going to be greater than 51 for the ALP
(Assuming you take the numbers at have value)
If the coalition were defending a 20 seat majority, I’d be worried that 51% 2PP to Labor wouldn’t be enough and a few key seat holdouts could see Morrison hang on.
But that’s not the case. Labor needs just three seats gained to form Government. Three. Maybe just two, with the support of Wilkie. Four to get an outright majority. If the swing Labor’s way is around the two percent mark, the results might be static, but not that static.
The only way the coalition can win is if the polls are wrong (which is, admittedly, a possibility).
I was right.
You are dumber than I thought.
I’m staying now.
What a surprise. Not. You never went away. You love the sound of your own voice too much.
Oh, and I got one of those emails too. My automatic deduction from my bank account every month will go on after the election as well.
And don’t even address the issue of the election day posters, which is what you have been bleating about the whole campaign.
Cue more trite abuse in 3..2..1..
Labor will win if a 37 primary vote is achieved tomorrow.
Btw – I get those primaries a little closer to 51.5% to the ALP fwiw…
Itep – re: Leichhardt, why are you buying into seat polls? If it’s out of reach, why is Scotty there? FTR – given how popular Entsch is, I’m kind of stunned it’s even being contested.
Leichardt’s probably a bridge too far for Labor. Warren Enstch is very popular, and has apparently been incredibly visible throughout the local campaign.
Dy4me
https://twitter.com/ghostwhovotes/status/1129174254040125443?s=21
Toby Esterhase @ #230 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 8:06 am
Just what I said earlier, although you said it more eloquently. 😉
As I recall from past elections, pre poll votes break pretty much the same as votes cast on Election Day.
There’s the question of why people pre-poll. Working on Election Day? Have other plans that make going to a polling place difficult? Want to avoid queues? Will be travelling on the day (business or pleasure)? One common characteristic is that they have made up their mind up early, which means they’re more likely to be rusted on, less likely to be undecided.
None of this seems to relate to how a person might vote. This is unlike postal voting which is strongly skewed towards older ages and to people who live in remote / rural areas with a long trip into town.
I pre-polled the other day because I had business at the local council and the polling place was nearby. Of course I’d made up my mind nearly 3 years ago, the day after the previous election. Also, I’m visiting family on the afternoon / evening of polling day, although I could have voted locally tomorrow morning.
I really think this focus on ‘aspiration’ by the coalition is wish-washy/meaningless to most people.
ltep @ #228 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 10:05 am
Oh alright.