Election minus one day

The latest polling collectively suggests swings to Labor in Victoria and Western Australia, but with way too many close results in prospect for the Coalition to be counted out quite yet.

Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)

The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.

Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.

BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.

Original post

To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.

We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.

Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.

Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.

Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.

The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.

Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.

If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,521 comments on “Election minus one day”

Comments Page 6 of 31
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  1. The online version of The West Australian seems unusually non BOO LABOUR !!

    One bright spot………….
    ………………………………………………………………………………………….
    Poll shows Hannah to return Beazley name to Canberra

    An exclusive poll for The West Australian by YouGov Galaxy has found Labor’s Hannah Beazley has brought the fight against Liberal MP Steve Irons to a 50-50 contest.
    https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-election-2019/federal-election-2019-poll-shock-shows-hannah-to-return-beazley-name-to-canberra-as-she-vies-for-seat-of-swan-ng-b881201784z

  3. I do have to continue to laugh at these so called political and polling experts claiming that the libs/nats can be retained with a combined primary vote of under 40% and 2pp under 50%, citing Howard government did it in 1998

    What these these so called political and polling experts did not mention is that

    1-The Howard government had reasonable size majority in 1998 , over 90 seats in the house of reps
    2- The Howard governent lost 14 seats at the 1998 federal election

    —————————–

    compare to 2019 federal election

    1-The Morrison government is in a minority , under 76 seats in the house of reps
    2- The Morrison government got no chance of retaining government with a primary vote of less than 40% , they will lose the same number (as in 1998 , 2016) or more seats in the 2019 federal election

  5. Good Morning

    Happy days. I see some pessimism is about. Still.

    I don’t see anything to have changed a Labor win. Remember polls will not have taken into account all the stories about how good the Labor years were under Hawke. We have in the last day the opposite of the usual narrative about how good the LNP are.

    Instead we have the media covering how good the Labor years were. For starters its impacting the Chinese community big time with the reminder of how Labor acted to save the lives of students and I have seen many tweets from Chinese Australians saying they would not be here if not for Hawke.

    Thats just one demographic directly impacted and reminded of what Labor means to people. Then you have the financial people talking about how great the reforms of Hawke and Keating were and talking about how unions and business worked together. Totally undoing 20 years of the unions are evil bastards the LNP usually runs.

    The last day of media coverage will be totally contradicting the LNP narrative of how evil Labor are and will be moving votes to Labor. Even the Australian front page is doing this. Its a black day of sadness and mourning for Labor people but due to the time of his death Hawke has given priceless positive coverage to Labor for the last hours of the campaign.

  6. From Jacinda Ardern. Classy.
    “On my way home to NZ and heard the news that former Aussie PM, Bob Hawke, has passed away. I never had a chance to meet Bob, but it was easy to feel like you knew him. He was such a charismatic figure and one clearly driven by his love of people. Rest In Peace, Bob.”

  8. I maintain and I think Scott has said it many times.
    If the Lib/Nat combined primaries have 3 in front of it, then they cannot possibly win.
    There has been no national poll that does not have them with three on in front.
    Also, this means that when the Nats are discounted, then some of their primary must drop to 35/36%

    My only regret is that I am on the wrong side of boundary and am in Falinsky’s seat. Oh, how I would love to voting Tony out!

  9. I really think this focus on ‘aspiration’ by the coalition is wish-washy/meaningless to most people.

    Aspirate (v): to suck it up.

  10. You won’t be wrong
    Positive vibes are needed on pb on the penultimate day.
    A couple of bed wetters will chime in soon and the whole mood will flip.
    The trick is not to ruminate on doom post’s too much.

    The vibes on Poll Bludger aren’t really that relevant. This election isn’t going to be decided by on the ratio of optimistic vs. pessimistic posts on this blog. The irony is that those complaining about the “bedwetters” are essentially doing much the same thing – worrying that even contemplating the possibility of a loss might make it a reality, and taking out their anxieties on the pessimists.

  11. Comparing this is to 1998 is absolute nonsense.

    Howard had a MONSTROUS majority, many requiring equally monstrous swings to flip them. So, essentially, Howard had the cannon fodder to lose some skin to get his reforms passed.

    I was 15 but remember that election night vividly… long story short, the kind of swings in ALP seats required to replicate a 51%+ ALP TPP and see the Coalition retain minority or even gain is verging on too ridiculous to consider.

    And SA has the gerrymander, so there’s that.

    So if the 2PP is in the ball park of the BT, then Labor will win seats, the Coalition will lose seats and almost certainly, Labor will form government.

  12. OK – after a fortnight of bed wetting and the squirts I reckon its pretty clear that Labor is headed for a comfortable, but perhaps narrow, win in the wash up. Dispatches from Bluey’s occie pool will prove prescient I think: it m,any even be slightly better than that.

    There are three reasons why I’m confident.

    1. Even allowing for poll herding, there is no evidence that suggests that the Liberal’s scare campaign can get national Labor 2PP vote below 51%. In fact, 51% rely on some dubious polling methodology: It’s going to be closer to 52% at least. Moreover, ‘the narrowing has statistically stalled over the past 3 weeks: “ScoMotion” is at a dead end. I know reckon that the Liberal attack ads did all their damage in the first 3 weeks after the budget and are not shifting any more votes. I hope.

    2. There is no evidence to suggest that the LNP national primary vote is owing to surge way past 40%. The best they have been able to achieve in any poll is 39% and I reckon that’s overstating it: they are looking at a 4-5% drop on primaries since 2016 and are only being kept in the game by heroic assumption of where the ON, UAP, Katter and others vote will preference. The reality is that those crazies are no where as disciplined with their preference allocations in the same way as the Greens are. On the other hand, Ipsos and one rouge Essential poll aside, it seems clear that Labor is looking at a PV of 37-38%: a 2-3% increase over 2016. I reckon the Greens are headed for a status quo on their nation PV. Long story short, that national tide will make it very very difficult for the Government to sandbag enough of its vulnerable marginals whilst also picking up some seats off labor where allegedly Labor is vulnerable. Which leads us to:

    3. This week’s individual seat polls. Seat polls are shit. We all know that. We also know that each of the polling companies that have undertaken seat polls have an incorrect methodology bias that favours the LNP and underestimates support for Labor and the Greens. HOWEVER: the 15 seat polls released yesterday clearly show two important trends: namely that THE SWING IS ON in Victoria, SE Queensland and Perth. Secondly, the LNP’s performance is actually very scratchy in the rest of the country: of Labor’s six most vulnerable seats it is really really difficult to see the LNP picking up more than 3 (my bones tell me that it will actually be 0-1). On the other hand the ‘rest of Australia’ seems to indicate that Labor still has a shot at a dozen or so Liberal seats outside Victoria, SEQ and Perth.

    In short, while I cant predict which of the 16 or so seats in Victoria, SEQ and Perth Labor will pick up I am confident that they will pick up at least 8. I’m also confident that Labor will have a net seat gain over the rest of the country & certainly wont go backwards. That’s majority government right there. The only question is where exactly Labor will land between 77 and 85 seats.

    Of course, Bob’s passing will hopefully remind folk of the time when they understood that pursuing material wealth for themselves and their families is not inconsistent with helping out their fellow citizens and with progressing the National Interest in areas of health, education, infrastructure development and environmental protection. I’m hoping they reflect on that and vote Labor in unprecedented numbers: thereby bringing about my prediction of Labor with 127 seats!

  13. Scott,

    Another thing about the 1998 election, which most people seem to miss, is that Howard had a huge number of marginal seats that were protected by the send-term surge. That’s why a handful of them managed to hold out against the tide.

    Morrison doesn’t have that advantage. His only member that might have got the surge – Julia Banks – quit.

  15. I hope people are smart enough to understand that Bill Shorten is nothing, and I mean NOTHING, like Bob Hawke. Bob Hawke had an ability to bring both sides today. Bill Shorten has campaigned on class warfare – that’s not bringing people together, that’s a divide and conquer strategy. Bill Shorten is the most dangerous PM to ever put himself up for election. I hope to God that ScoMo wins.

  16. Cameron C,

    You would have had enough money to drown yourself in liquor if you just kept the $200 in your pocket.

    Cooking sherry is about$13 for 2.5 litres at about 16% proof.

    I do a lot of cooking.

  17. Catmoaner

    Abuse trite or otherwise you brought on yourself by name calling.
    I’ve blocked you now so don’t bother trying to be nice to Mundo.

  18. Galaxy 51-49
    And check this: #Galaxy Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 39 (+2) ALP 37 (0) GRN 9 (0) ON 3 (-1) UAP 3 (-1) #

    And all movement to LNP is from ONP and UAP, making their preferences weaker

  21. Today’s Galaxy:‏

    @GhostWhoVotes
    Follow Follow @GhostWhoVotes
    More
    #Galaxy Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 39 (+2) ALP 37 (0) GRN 9 (0) ON 3 (-1) UAP 3 (-1)

  22. @katinacurtis tweets

    Morrison: “This will be the closest election we’ve seen in many, many years.”

    What about 2010? Or 2016?

  23. I also agree with the assessments of why the comparisons to 1998 don’t really wash.

    That said, stranger things have happened. But I reckon its very unlikely.

  24. “BK says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 10:20 am
    “Aspiration” is getting a huge run in this Morrison presser!”

    How long before he gets to “perspiration”?

  25. This Mundo Guy/Gal is a real half glass full guy isn’t he. Must be a fun person to be around. Take a chill pill mate your mob will get up by 3 to 10 otherwise all the polling and commentary is completely and utterly wrong which is just so unlikely.

    The test for the ALP will be balancing the budget “faster and bigger than the coalition” they do that for the next three years then they get another term actually a balanced budget will keep them in as long as they are seen as managing the economy well. People wont really care if you don’t want to put the gender of your child on the birth certificate as long as economy is purring along, and their electricity bill is not hurting them to much. I suspect bordering on I know that the ALP wont be able to keep their spending under control, a slight downturn in the economy and that’s all folks they are gone.

  26. Sportsbet – $1.14 Labor, $5.75 Coalition
    Ladbrokes – $1.12 Labor, $6.00 Coalition
    Betfair – $1.16 Labor, $7.00 Coalition

    Thanks for those odds a r. A lot of money going on Labor today it seems. Ladbrokes had them at $1.14 this morning and the Libs at $5.50.

    Not predictive but still a good sign IMO. If the money was all for the Liberals today I’d be worried.

  27. Pessimism is not trolling for as long as all parties are systematically seen in a negative light. As soon as only one party is consistently seen negatively, whereas specific others are seen positively, the suspicion of trolling cannot be erased so easily….

    But in any event, in this vast jungle even trolls have a niche…. Without trolls what would the predators eat?

  29. “#Galaxy Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 39 (+2) ALP 37 (0) GRN 9 (0) ON 3 (-1) UAP 3 (-1)”

    The government is fucked on those primaries. That actually very much looks like a 52-48 result on last election preferences.

  30. #Galaxy Poll Federal Seat of Leichhardt Primary Votes: LNP 40 (+0.5 since election) ALP 34 (+5.9) GRN 8 (-0.8) KAP 7 (+2.7) UAP 5 (+5) ON 4 (-3.5) #auspol 

    #Galaxy Poll Federal Seat of Leichhardt 2 Party Preferred: LNP 51 (-2.9 since election) ALP 49 (+2.9) #auspol 

  31. The only legacy I can see for the imbecile Abbott and his years in public will be that he was the bloke that ate an onion. Admittedly it was a pretty big onion, I’ll give him that much.

    As for the rest of his legacy, history will always be his judge.

  33. Bob scored a very large obit. in the NYT. A sample. Opens in “igcognito”

    ………………………….Bob Hawke, Australia’s hugely popular prime minister from 1983 to 1991, who presided over wrenching changes that integrated his nation into the global economy and strengthened ties with Asia and America, died on Thursday at his home in Sydney. He was 89..

    ……………………….Rising to power as a trade union leader, Mr. Hawke led his center-left Australian Labor Party to four consecutive election victories in a tenure of nearly nine years, in which Australia emerged dramatically from relative isolation into larger roles in world trade, military cooperation with the West and partnerships with Asian neighbors……….It was a major reorientation for a prosperous, sparsely populated country of 15 million (now 25 million) that had always viewed itself as apart, and a bit above, Asian nations to the north, a continent of pleasant cities and open spaces like the Old American West that had had little to do with global defense strategies or competitive world markets. Modern realities, however, were catching up with Australia.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/16/obituaries/bob-hawke-dead.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Obituaries

  34. “ltep says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 10:06 am
    Lecihardt poll 51-49 btw (LNP in front). Improving Labor primary, LNP about where it was. It’s probably a little out of reach.”

    Even if you take them as accurate (i.e ignore the historic ant-Labor bias in these seat polls) taken as a whole these gallaxy polls are enormously encouraging for Labor. Apparently the UAP are unlikely to be handing out tomorrow apart from through Liberal party proxy….and PHON are not running in many seats and yet these polls assume a 60:40 split off inflated primaries

    Sure, Labor could fall short in a stack of seats that could get it over the line tomorrow….but it has many pathways to power and the probability of it not getting over the line where there is clear swing to it and away from the coal on primaries

  35. Roger @ #216 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 9:57 am

    The polls don’t say that at all! Which polls are you talking about?

    The one we have for Dickson, which taken at face value* says Dutton will retain on a 51-49 margin (barely changed from his 2016 margin).

    And the one for Bass which had the Libs winning 54-46, while the best^ poll Braddon has seen is Libs by 51-49.

    * Not that I advocate doing so, but if we’re talking about betting markets following polls, that’s kind of the assumption being made; that the polls will be taken at face value.
    ^ “Best” from the perspective of someone who wants to throw money away betting on the Liberals.

  38. “#Galaxy Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 39 (+2) ALP 37 (0) GRN 9 (0) ON 3 (-1) UAP 3 (-1)”

    On these figures, 51-49 looks a bit conservative. What it shows is that Clive doesn’t seem to be getting too many votes for his buck.

  40. “worrying that even contemplating the possibility of a loss might make it a reality, ‘

    Nobody is that dumb.
    Claiming a likely lib victory given the current polling seems a bit out there.

  42. sprocket_ @ #273 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 10:27 am

    #Galaxy Poll Federal Seat of Leichhardt Primary Votes: LNP 40 (+0.5 since election) ALP 34 (+5.9) GRN 8 (-0.8) KAP 7 (+2.7) UAP 5 (+5) ON 4 (-3.5) #auspol 

    #Galaxy Poll Federal Seat of Leichhardt 2 Party Preferred: LNP 51 (-2.9 since election) ALP 49 (+2.9) #auspol

    Warren Entsch is there until he decides to hang up his whip.

  44. What Bob Hawke proves is that Australia can prosper under a Labor government, to have that Meme present now just before the election tomorrow, is at least a positive… 🙁

  45. Nobody is that dumb.

    Welcome to Poll Bludger.

    Claiming a likely lib victory given the current polling seems a bit out there.

    No doubt.

    Doesn’t make someone making such claims a troll, however.

    And, personally, I still wouldn’t discount the outside chance of a Coalition victory, as unlikely as it seems.

  46. Andrew_Earlwood @ #272 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 10:27 am

    “#Galaxy Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 39 (+2) ALP 37 (0) GRN 9 (0) ON 3 (-1) UAP 3 (-1)”

    The government is fucked on those primaries. That actually very much looks like a 52-48 result on last election preferences.

    Especially as the trend is not the friend of PHON or the Palmer Party.

  48. sprocket_ @ #262 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 10:27 am

    #Galaxy Poll Federal Seat of Leichhardt Primary Votes: LNP 40 (+0.5 since election) ALP 34 (+5.9) GRN 8 (-0.8) KAP 7 (+2.7) UAP 5 (+5) ON 4 (-3.5) #auspol 

    #Galaxy Poll Federal Seat of Leichhardt 2 Party Preferred: LNP 51 (-2.9 since election) ALP 49 (+2.9) #auspol

    The only thing this useless seat poll says is that the seat may go either way. It also takes the average swing to the ALP in the recent-seat-poll aggregrate to 2.67%. Extrapolate that and then ask if you’d rather be in Scomo’s shoes or Shorten’s.

  49. Fozzie Logic @ #287 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 10:33 am

    What Bob Hawke proves is that Australia can prosper under a Labor government, to have that Meme present now just before the election tomorrow, is at least a positive… 🙁

    Yeah, way better than any other sort of Black Swan event on the eve of an election.

  50. Sportsbet blew out from 4.75 to 5.75 immediately after Bob Hawk’s passing. They obviously believe it is significant.

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