Election minus one day

The latest polling collectively suggests swings to Labor in Victoria and Western Australia, but with way too many close results in prospect for the Coalition to be counted out quite yet.

Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)

The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.

Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.

BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.

Original post

To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.

We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.

Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.

Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.

Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.

The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.

Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.

If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,521 comments on “Election minus one day”

Comments Page 7 of 31
1 … 6 7 8 … 31

  2. The question I have is not whether Labor will win the popular vote. They will (51-49 or 52-48).

    My question is whether the LNP have managed to sandbag enough marginal seats to survive.

    No “sweet dreams” for a few nights yet.

  3. The Coalition have tried a bit of Labor = BIG CHANGES and how scary that is. With luck Hawkies’ death will remind a few that BIG CHANGES can also mean “good times” .

  5. PaulTu @ #295 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 10:38 am

    The question I have is not whether Labor will win the popular vote. They will (51-49 or 52-48).

    My question is whether the LNP have managed to sandbag enough marginal seats to survive.

    No “sweet dreams” for a few nights yet.

    It depends on what your definition of ‘survive’ is.

  6. “What Bob Hawke proves is that Australia can prosper under a Labor government, to have that Meme present now just before the election tomorrow, is at least a positive… ”

    Thats one thing about Hawkes death that actually put a smile on my face. Suspect he is somewhere feeling happy that if he had to go, he timed it as well as he could for the party he devoted his life too. One last blow to the Tories as he went. Well done. 🙂

  7. https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/obituaries/bob-hawke-australian-larrikin-turned-charismatic-prime-minister-dies-at-89/2019/05/16/f672beba-77e2-11e9-bd25-c989555e7766_story.html?utm_term=.c96227e8c300

    Bob Hawke, a former Australian prime minister who evolved from a mischievous union leader into a gray-haired statesman, spearheading a center-left agenda that made him one of the most popular and transformative leaders in his country’s modern era, died May 16 at his home in Sydney. He was 89.

    His wife, Blanche d’Alpuget, announced the death but did not give a cause. Mr. Hawke had been ailing for several months, according to Australian news reports, and died two days before a closely contested national election. In his last public statement, he issued an open letter urging voters to support Labor Party leader Bill Shorten.

    Mr. Hawke, who served as prime minister from 1983 to 1991, was widely regarded as the most successful Labor politician in Australian history, and was known for integrating the country into the global economy, forging alliances with Asian nations and strengthening ties with world powers such as the United States.

    In a decade dominated by conservative politicians such as Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, he charted a left-leaning course for Australia, introducing or expanding social welfare programs that included universal health care and the superannuation system, in which employers are required to contribute to retirement plans.

  9. The great achievement of the Liberal (and media) campaign has been to consistently present the appearance that the result is closer than reality.

    They needed that to get boots on the ground and donations, and has probably prevented a wipeout.

  10. He’s the only Liberal/LNP politician to have won a seat back from Labor for his party as they went into Opposition. He also was a prime mover of the SSM agenda.

    Yes; my snark as aimed at ScoMo’s nicknaming habit. (I assume Warren nixed “Wazza”.)

  11. What about the vile GG having a go at BK for posting the news and cartoons of the day. If anything positive about the Catholic Church ever happens and appears in the news I’m sure he will link to it.

  12. I suspect bordering on I know that the ALP wont be able to keep their spending under control, a slight downturn in the economy and that’s all folks they are gone.

    Steelydan,
    That narrative falls to bits when you have to consider the ‘field evidence’ as John Howard was wont to say.

    * Labor brought Australia through the GFC with barely an economic scratch.

    * Bob Hawke and Paul Keating modernised the Australian Economy and set us up for how many years now without a Recession?

    You know it makes sense.

    Slashing and burning government services for the sake of a Surplus, is not the sign of good economic management. We can do both-provide government services in a cost-efficient manner for those who need them-we are a 1st World economy after all, AND create Surpluses.

  13. Poroti,

    I wouldn’t be too sure of that. Some people might remember how BIG CHANGES can also mean living through the recession we had to have. For example.

  14. Jaeger @ #303 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 10:42 am

    He’s the only Liberal/LNP politician to have won a seat back from Labor for his party as they went into Opposition. He also was a prime mover of the SSM agenda.

    Yes; my snark as aimed at ScoMo’s nicknaming habit. (I assume Warren nixed “Wazza”.)

    ‘Wentschy’? 😉

  15. When someone votes is basically irrelevant when it comes to polling. If the polls say 51% to Labor, and those who have voted are going 53% to the Coalition, that just means a higher percentage will vote Labor on the day.

  18. Just a comment on MOE, which a several commenters seem to be relying on to support their gut feelings.

    MOE is based on a statistical interval of 95% confidence and can be either more OR less. The MOE doesn’t mean that you can just round all polls to the outside edge in your preferred direction based on whatever gut feeling you get from talking to your neighbours or handing out how to vote cards.

    Not all outcomes within the MOE are equally likely. In fact, the median (reported) result is the most likely outcome, and the closer you get to each end of the MOE the less likely your preferred outcome becomes. An actual result on the very outside edge of one side of the MOE only has a ~2.5% chance of being correct.

    Pile all the published polls together and you have an extremely large sample with a very narrow effective MOE. As others have pointed out, if all polls are reporting more or less the same result the only alternative explanations are along the lines of competing pollsters all suffering from some collective delusion, corruption, or the lot of them just not being very good at their jobs, none of which seems particularly likely.

    Practically speaking, none of these possibilities should even be a topic of serious speculation in a blog supposedly about analyzing and dissecting opinion polls. The fact that such poor commentary around the MOE is even getting a largely unchallenged run here says quite a lot about the one-eyed partisanship of core Poll Bludger commenters.

    The problem of under sampling, seen in the US and the UK, either of particular demographic groups or voters overall, is largely not an issue in Australia due to compulsory voting and should largely be dismissed outright. Regardless, it’s a core part of the job of professional pollsters to control for these factors.

    About the most that can be said of the current lot of polls is that a bit of herding appears to be happening around assumptions involving the distribution of preferences from right wing micro parties. All things being equal, however, I’ll take the opinion of someone whose full time job is as a pollster over random internet speculation by party members and supporters any day, just as I’d take the opinion of climate scientists over facebook bloggers and the coal mine shareholders.

  19. ‘Cooking sherry is about$13 for 2.5 litres at about 16% proof.’

    Go to the Asian supermarkets in places like Box Hill – Chinese cooking win, 17% proof, about $2 a bottle.

    I’m pretty sure that’s totally illegal!

  21. The polling going on is rubbish. I think the best they have is 54 to Labor in Victoria. This was also the best the pollster had for Labor in Victoria’s election. Labor ended on 57.3. Morrison is even more hated in Victoria than Guy was. In fact, Morrison damaged Guy’s vote when he made trips down here later in the campaign. Labor’s vote in Victoria will be higher than 57.3 this time.

  22. citizen says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 10:28 am
    “#Galaxy Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 39 (+2) ALP 37 (0) GRN 9 (0) ON 3 (-1) UAP 3 (-1)”

    On these figures, 51-49 looks a bit conservative. What it shows is that Clive doesn’t seem to be getting too many votes for his buck.

    It certainly is. Using 0.8 for the Greens and 0.4 to the PHON and UAP and 0.5 for the others gives 51.1.

    The reality is that, if those primaries are accurate, it is a -3 to the coal from last election and a plus 2.3 to Labor

    The credible pollsters are all pointing to 51.5 (adjusting for gallaxy/news asymmetric adjustment to PHON and UAP) and that was before Bob’s passing. A 2 percent 2PP swing where the starting position is notionally 73 v 72.

  23. “bug1 says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 10:41 am
    The great achievement of the Liberal (and media) campaign has been to consistently present the appearance that the result is closer than reality.

    They needed that to get boots on the ground and donations, and has probably prevented a wipeout.”

    Possiblty true. However this requires a belief in a conspiracy system that defies all the evidence from the available opinion polls.

    There are some questions about preference allocations, but to suggest that the opinion polls have no link to reality is foolish. They may be wrong, but they have an ongoing reputation to consider. If they are found out to have “fudged” the results they are GONE.
    Perhaps (if wrong) they will claim a last minute swing?? However, I think they will try to be close.

    I prefer to accept the reported polls that suggest that Labor should win a narrow majority in the Reps and NOC in the Senate. Fingers crossed.

  25. c@t

    Sorry I forgot to copy the link to the tweet itself. The best I can do is offer the link just to the image itself which you can get for yourself by right clicking the image and then clicking “copy image address”.

    I will try to be more diligent in future.

  27. “Labor’s vote in Victoria will be higher than 57.3 this time.”

    Whoa, big call. That would be a pleasant surprise…

  28. “Blobbit says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 10:54 am
    “Labor’s vote in Victoria will be higher than 57.3 this time.”

    Whoa, big call. That would be a pleasant surprise…”

    Yes, it would be a big surprise. Don’t think so though.

  30. When talking about alcohol content, there’s no such thing as “X% proof”. It’s either “X%” or “Y proof”, where Y is twice X. So sherry which is 16% alcohol by volume is 32 proof. Furthermore, “proof” is only used in Septicland these days (about the last hundred years).

  32. From Richard Di Natale..

    “Not only would the Greens plan protect existing jobs in Australia’s food bowl and on the Great Barrier Reef, it would create 270,000 new full-time jobs in a range of industries.

    “We will create 21st-century jobs that support Australia’s 21st-century needs. Jobs in renewable energy, construction, public service, aged care and the arts.

    The obvious unanswered question to Richard … just how will you do this with next to no parliamentarians

  33. “Ante Meridian says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 10:58 am
    When talking about alcohol content, there’s no such thing as “X% proof”. It’s either “X%” or “Y proof”, where Y is twice X. So sherry which is 16% alcohol by volume is 32 proof. Furthermore, “proof” is only used in Septicland these days (about the last hundred years).”

    Do you have proof?

  35. Warrigal @ #148 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 9:03 am

    A projected increase in daily experience of burning just after the proton pump inhibitor class prescribed for reflux has been moved to the more restrictive Authority list on the PBS. You know it makes sense.

    This makes medical sense: chronic use of PPIs can kill you (particularly if you are older…) – unlike the earlier H2 antagonists like ranitidine.

  38. If Abbott loses his seat , he will have this in common with Howard , they were both voted out and not leaving politics on their own choosing

  39. Andrew_Earlwood 1020am

    Good summary. I am always loathe to make predictions and even when I try my best I end up on the pessimistic side compared to the reality.

    But I think the only seats the Coalition can pick up from Labor are Herbert, Lindsay, Corangamite (notionally Labor) and maybe Braddon.

    But I think Labor is headed for a net gain (even if they lose those) in Qld, NSW, Vic and WA.

    So in short Labor will be at least plus 4 in those four states – even if they were only plus four then lost Braddon they will still end up on 75 in Government.

    I think it will be somewhat better than that.

  42. The 2007 election defeat of the libs/nats , saved Howard from further embarrassment , if the libs/nats did get retain Howard would not have been able to stay as prime minister because by losing his seat he would be no longer a member of parliament

  44. OK. When are we getting seat polls for:

    Capricornia
    Dawson
    Bonner
    Page
    Robertson
    Banks
    Warringah
    Wentworth
    Boothby
    Solomon
    Bass
    Braddon
    Lyons

    Seems a lot of seats of interest in this election are being not polled by Galaxy. I wonder why

  45. Seat polls were pretty good given their tendency to skew and speculative pro LNP preference flows. Bit odd so many came to 50 50 or similar just like so many national polls 51 49.

  47. “AngoraFish says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 10:49 am
    Just a comment on MOE, which a several commenters seem to be relying on to support their gut feelings.”

    I’ve raised the MOE issue in response to people claiming, for instance, that Dutton is going to win based on a 51-49 robopoll of 500 voters in Dickson

    More broadly, the MOE is a measure of sampling error. It doesn’t correct for non-sampling errors that seem to have under estimated Labor’s vote very consistently as attested at recent elections / byelections

  48. pithicus

    I think there has been big population shifts since 2016 which may account for much closer polls there than I would ever have thought possible.

    I still think Labor will win this seat – but I think it the only one the Coalition could possibly ‘gain’ from Labor in Victorua

  49. RDN:

    “Bob Hawke’ leadership on environmental issues showed tremendous courage. He took action to save the Franklin River, despite suffering a political backlash in Tasmania, and he delivered world heritage listing of Kakadu National Park and the Daintree Wet Tropics.

    Thanks to him some of our most precious places are now protected forever and he has inspired many of us to follow in his footsteps.

    The Greens have announced plans…

    Spot the difference

  50. Finally took the plunge into The West Australian

    The editorial page is way back on page 70 today, such is the dogs breakfast the paper has become.

    My interest was in twisted reasoning for what I thought would be an endorsement of the Tories.

    But no, the editorial is devoted to Bob Hawke.

Comments Page 7 of 31
1 … 6 7 8 … 31

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *