Election minus one day

The latest polling collectively suggests swings to Labor in Victoria and Western Australia, but with way too many close results in prospect for the Coalition to be counted out quite yet.

Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)

The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.

Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.

BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.

Original post

To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.

We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.

Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.

Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.

Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.

The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.

Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.

If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,521 comments on “Election minus one day”

Comments Page 8 of 31
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  1. It’s interesting that so many on PB seem convinced there will be an upset liberal win.

    In terms of the polls, they point to a labor win, and that is even with preference assumptions that are likely on the high end for the liberals.

    But in the betting as well, the liberals are in the high $5 range. It’s interesting looking at the number of seats the greens are rated better odds than the liberals overall.

    Melbourne (obviously), higgins, Macnamara, wills, cooper.

    All of these electorates form a contiguous area. The chances of the greens winning each seat are highly correlated. Ie they aren’t independent events.

    So betting markets seem to be ascribing similar probabilities to a coalition win as a greens haul of 5 HOR seats.

    I know it’s fashionable on this site to dismiss the greens, but that’s pretty impressive.

    Also impressive is how safe Albo and Plibersek are. Combination of labor having the right candidates and the NSW Greens being a bit shit I guess

  3. Sceptic

    Brave words Labor people have said before. However there is something called reality of numbers. We already know Labor will want the Greens helping them not aggravating them. Just as the Greens have recognised that they want to cooperate not be at war with Labor.

    Of course we know that Labor will disappoint the Greens. Thats because they are different parties different priorities. Happens all the time. On legislation by legislation however stuff will get passed because the Greens are helping not at war with Labor. Ditto Vice Versa.

    Mr Shorten knows this. Thats what consensus politics is all about. It helps that Labor will not be buying the Newscorp line about the extreme Greens. I saw the correct identification of the LNP as the extreme party by Mr Shorten when talking in Blacktown.

    The best example of what I am talking about is the Medivac bill. Lots of noise about the negotiations. Some Labor people throwing mud at the Greens. Still the bottom line. The legislation passed. Where the Greens get a say good legislation does happen.

  7. To clarify the pre/postal-votes swinging to the LNP of 53, I would like to see the results of respondents that answered that they had not yet voted. It should be around 53/54 to Labor if the sum of polls are accurate.

  8. With all due respect to Mundo (I do sort of understand his anxiety) I find it hard to tolerate self declared Labor supporters who give up and assail us with their whingeing and defeatism when the race is still there to be won and Labor from all accounts are in front. I can put up with the Liberal supporters who come here to promote the chances of their chosen party, even if I strongly disagree with them. But Labor faint hearts just leave me cold.

    Hopefully, if Labor wins, Mundo will realise what a pain in the arse he has been to us over these last few weeks – and if he decides to return, I hope he will be able to find some constructive things to say about the party which has fought so hard to give Australians a government we can all be proud of.

  9. guytaur

    You release a statement, you tweet a tweet, but to hold a press conference to discuss the passing of a political enemy is just bad taste , especially the day before the election. Probably designed to get some attention back on the Coalition today.

    Hint – it will be all about Howard and how it was really his cooperation that enabled Australia to boom in the Hawke years.

    He will have to conveniently ignore the fact that the Coalition manifesto specifically called for the abolition of Medicare at the 1984. 1987, 1990 and 1993 elections!

  10. Rhwombat: This makes medical sense: chronic use of PPIs can kill you (particularly if you are older…) – unlike the earlier H2 antagonists like ranitidine.

    Agreed. My post was willfully facetious and should have come with a disclaimer to this ^ effect. You can blame free-floating election anxiety if you’re feeling more charitable than it deserves. (Lay readers: PPIs are associated with a few nasties – fracture risk, enteritis, renal injury et al – that are significant at population level. The recent changes are not just about cost.)

  11. Hi all,

    Reposting as this took a while to pass moderation and was back a few pages.

    I’m normally a lurker but I thought some of you may be interested in a short video explaining preferences that I’ve made.

    I suspect everyone here is across the subject, but you may know first time voters or disengaged types who struggle with it.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7P7nPtrdI8

    Feedback is also appreciated.

    Thanks.

  12. When someone repeats the same negativity about Labor’s chances about 15 times a day for a week or more then they ate well qualified to be deemed concern trolls.

    Wringing one’s hands publicly on the basis of a few late tightening polls (which STILL favour Labor) when the objective evidence of years of non stop anti Coalie polls and a list of stupid, unfair, illogical, partisan, widely hated, incompetent actions by this divided and divisive rabble, which has occurred on a daily basis for the last 3 years, stands in stark contrast, is ridiculous, if not pathological.

  13. pithicus

    I went carefully though the whole board yesterday to find seats that the Coalition could possibly win against the swing – they were the only four I could come up with.

    Lindsay is probably their most likely, followed by Herbert. Though the Townsville seats did much better for a Labor in the state election than expected .

    I was looking at it from the perspective of the 1993 election – Labor won 10 and lost 7 for a net gain of 3 – but Labor was going with the swing. So again this time there is going to be a swing to Labor – I cannot see this not translating into net gains for Labor.

  15. Dan Gulberry @ #318 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 10:53 am

    c@t

    Sorry I forgot to copy the link to the tweet itself. The best I can do is offer the link just to the image itself which you can get for yourself by right clicking the image and then clicking “copy image address”.

    I will try to be more diligent in future.

    Not a problem, DanG. He’d already seen it! 😆

  16. Even taking into account the caveat of single-seat polling, GetUp’s effectiveness appears questionable – eg, Dickson.

  17. Hello All
    PB this morning continues to all over the place this morning, as is the whole nation really. The phenomenon all began when that character, so we’ll cartooned by Pope this morning, backdoored his own party and assumed the leadership of the Liberals, and wrongly assumed of himself to have the necessary attributes to be a successful PM.
    I continue to work, even as my own years have moved on and perhaps my mind hasn’t in many ways.
    I mentioned last night that I’d crossed paths with Hawke in the late seventies and I’ve vivid memories of marching along George Street in the late sixties.
    The euphoria of Gough and the end of Vietnam is ever present.
    About this time I had made myself familiar with lots of Tasmania.
    The time of Frazer was not heartwarming and as I’d already known Hawke by the time of his election, his electoral success was not initially encouraging.
    Hawkes transformation to become the PM that he became, was great for Australia.
    Keating was an entertainer.
    Australia changed dramatically from the sixties through to the nineties.
    By the time Howard defaulted into the PMship, Australia was already experiencing growth, opportunities and wealth. Australia became a spivs paradise.
    Thanks to Labor, being poor at the turn of the century, was not the poor of the fifties. Far from it.
    The new century has seen Australia experience two things that have consequences not yet identified.
    The first of these is political instability. Australia has it in truck loads!
    Unfortunately most of the voting public couldn’t care less.
    The second thing is technology, a revolution so changing that only the best of the best can foresee.
    And I by chance find myself in a diverse multi-racial, low socio-economic mall, with lots of people of my vintage, looking surprisingly aging, all seemingly happy, engaged in conversation, and me wondering and surprised that I’ve no idea what their thinking and certainly how they have, or are intending to vote tomorrow.
    Those of you that hang around PB would be well aware of my political allegiance and bent.
    I feel genuinely surprised at the closeness of the polls and therefore the possibilities.
    My part and perception of Australia may not be as mainstream as I’ve imagined.
    Are people just happy and content, quite divorced from the actualities around their country and the world?
    More older people pour into this mall looking happier and more content than the the ones they’ve replaced.
    Two of these people stand out. One, a former Rugby League player of note, looks happy, just older. And the koori fella at another table looks fit enough to still play in the firsts.
    For many is it just a matter of “I’m alright Jack” and absolutely no reason exists for them to cause a change of government.
    Most of the “issues” in this election just don’t register of concern for many.
    Disappointing but true.
    No better emphasised than the franking credit nonsense. Ninety percent of the population have no idea what a franking credit is! An overseas entrant in this year’s Melbourne Cup perhaps?
    On that note I’ll go and badger the next poor bugger I meet about their voting intentions tomorrow.
    Go Labor!

  22. Assume we get the final Newspoll around 9pm tonight. Also assume fieldwork last night and this morning, including death of Bob. Doubt it will be a PVO WOW.
    Shorten will form Government with around 76 to 80 seats.

  23. The latest polling collectively suggests swings to Labor in Victoria and Western Australia, but with way too many close results in prospect for the Coalition to be counted out quite yet.

    So says William at the top of this thread and I find his terminology encouraging.

    Not to be too pedantic about it, the words ‘quite yet’ suggest to me that he thinks we aren’t far from being able to say that the coalition are fucked, though I’m sure William would never sully the blog with such language. If I’m wrong about my reading of it, I do hope he won’t destroy my illusions by posting a denial, not until after polling day anyway.

  24. Grime @ #330 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 11:06 am

    guytaur @ #322 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 10:58 am

    Next Hour.

    John Howard presser for Hawke tribute.

    Why do these insincere arseholes feel the need to say nice things about their sworn enemies once the poor buggers are dead.
    Something only the likes of Dave Allen could explain I guess.

    I sooo want Paul Keating to come out after that and say, ‘I thank the little dessicated coconut for his tribute to Labor Prime Minister Bob Hawke…’ 😆

  26. Howard .. prime arshole to the end.. can see why Abbott is his chosen..

    On Hawke..
    He rose to the top of the ACTU. Yet he did not seek to divide the Australian community on phony class lines, as some other Labor figures – certainly in recent times – have endeavoured to do.

  28. “Lance Crossfire says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 11:26 am
    Hi all,

    Reposting as this took a while to pass moderation and was back a few pages.

    I’m normally a lurker but I thought some of you may be interested in a short video explaining preferences that I’ve made.

    I suspect everyone here is across the subject, but you may know first time voters or disengaged types who struggle with it.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7P7nPtrdI8

    Feedback is also appreciated.

    Thanks.”

    Good video, not sure how prevalent the “your vote won’t count” advice is though

  33. Being pessimistic is not concern trolling, it’s mostly just someone’s view. I don’t think anyone here is deliberately setting out to demoralise any Labor or Green Party workers or donors, which would be the purpose of non-genuine pessimistic posting.

    A “concern troll” would post 15 or 50 times a day that “I am a Labor voter but I’m having second thoughts because Labor’s franking credit changes hurt battlers who worked hard not to be on welfare in retirement” or “I don’t like the Liberals but Bill Shorten did something bad at a party meeting in 2005”.

  34. Vogon Poet says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 11:14 am

    RDN:

    “Bob Hawke’ leadership on environmental issues showed tremendous courage. He took action to save the Franklin River, despite suffering a political backlash in Tasmania, and he delivered world heritage listing of Kakadu National Park and the Daintree Wet Tropics.

    Thanks to him some of our most precious places are now protected forever and he has inspired many of us to follow in his footsteps.

    The Greens have announced plans…

    Spot the difference

    All this before the Greens were a political presence.

    Do the Greens have such a resume of political achievement for the environment?

  36. Looking at the comparison of pre-polled v booths in Eden Monaro towns of Yass. and Tumut shows the prepolled votes narrowly ho LNP while the booths on the day went strongly to Labor. Lots of oldies and farmers out of town vote early, bound to trend conservative.

  38. The coalition will (probably) be counted out on Saturday evening, once we’ve done the poll that matters. Sample size millions MOE 0

  41. Goll @ #367 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 11:33 am

    Hello All
    PB this morning continues to all over the place this morning, as is the whole nation really. The phenomenon all began when that character, so we’ll cartooned by Pope this morning, backdoored his own party and assumed the leadership of the Liberals, and wrongly assumed of himself to have the necessary attributes to be a successful PM.
    I continue to work, even as my own years have moved on and perhaps my mind hasn’t in many ways.
    I mentioned last night that I’d crossed paths with Hawke in the late seventies and I’ve vivid memories of marching along George Street in the late sixties.
    The euphoria of Gough and the end of Vietnam is ever present.
    About this time I had made myself familiar with lots of Tasmania.
    The time of Frazer was not heartwarming and as I’d already known Hawke by the time of his election, his electoral success was not initially encouraging.
    Hawkes transformation to become the PM that he became, was great for Australia.
    Keating was an entertainer.
    Australia changed dramatically from the sixties through to the nineties.
    By the time Howard defaulted into the PMship, Australia was already experiencing growth, opportunities and wealth. Australia became a spivs paradise.
    Thanks to Labor, being poor at the turn of the century, was not the poor of the fifties. Far from it.
    The new century has seen Australia experience two things that have consequences not yet identified.
    The first of these is political instability. Australia has it in truck loads!
    Unfortunately most of the voting public couldn’t care less.
    The second thing is technology, a revolution so changing that only the best of the best can foresee.
    And I by chance find myself in a diverse multi-racial, low socio-economic mall, with lots of people of my vintage, looking surprisingly aging, all seemingly happy, engaged in conversation, and me wondering and surprised that I’ve no idea what their thinking and certainly how they have, or are intending to vote tomorrow.
    Those of you that hang around PB would be well aware of my political allegiance and bent.
    I feel genuinely surprised at the closeness of the polls and therefore the possibilities.
    My part and perception of Australia may not be as mainstream as I’ve imagined.
    Are people just happy and content, quite divorced from the actualities around their country and the world?
    More older people pour into this mall looking happier and more content than the the ones they’ve replaced.
    Two of these people stand out. One, a former Rugby League player of note, looks happy, just older. And the koori fella at another table looks fit enough to still play in the firsts.
    For many is it just a matter of “I’m alright Jack” and absolutely no reason exists for them to cause a change of government.
    Most of the “issues” in this election just don’t register of concern for many.
    Disappointing but true.
    No better emphasised than the franking credit nonsense. Ninety percent of the population have no idea what a franking credit is! An overseas entrant in this year’s Melbourne Cup perhaps?
    On that note I’ll go and badger the next poor bugger I meet about their voting intentions tomorrow.
    Go Labor!

    Good post Goll. I would just add though that 90% of punters don’t like the sound of a Retirees Tax. The Coalition’s tricky name for franking credits reform.

  42. @pithcus.

    Yes, the Greens are onlyfavourites in 1 of those 5.

    There’s 2 where the greens are in the $2.xx range, and 2 where they are in the $4.xx range.

    But in all 5, the greens have better odds of winning the seat than the liberals have of forming government, which is $5.xx.

    People on PB are worrying about that possibility occurring. And yet few on PB are talking about the possibility of the Greens winning 5 seats, which is roughly equally likely according to the bookies (depending on the degree to which the results are correlated).

    If this did occur, it would be unprecedented. There has never been a party win 5 seats, unless they were liberal, national, labor, or a party that eventually merged with one of those three.

  44. C@tmomma says Friday, May 17, 2019 at 10:37 am

    He’s the only Liberal/LNP politician to have won a seat back from Labor for his party as they went into Opposition. He also was a prime mover of the SSM agenda.

    Steve Irons won Swan in the 2007 election, defeating Kim Wilke. I couldn’t believe it at the time. I was thinking, what is wrong with people, you want to be in a marginal electorate held by the government, not the opposition.

    “Entschy” was definately a leader on SSM. Didn’t his electorate also vote for SSM?

  45. John Howard, the greatest prime minister the nation has ever had, may yet save the country on the weekend from the scourges of socialism and political correctness.
    May your life be long and bountiful! I would personally take your franking credits statement every year and wave it around to show the losers of Trades Hall!

  46. At least we don’t seem to have heard anything more about the rape allegations – unless I have missed something. Perhaps Bob’s death has played a part in that.

  47. Good morning all.

    Someone earlier said Morrison is giving “aspiration” a work out. The context for the word aspiration is nearly always financial. Used like that “aspiration” is just code for “greed”.

  48. Darn says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 11:50 am
    At least we don’t seem to have heard anything more about the rape allegations – unless I have missed something. Perhaps Bob’s death has played a part in that.

    —————–

    The case has not been reopen , whether it will or not up to the victorian police

  49. Abbott losing his seat could be the best thing to happen to the Coalition. I don’t mean from an ideological perspective but that they’d be rid of that annoying albatross sitting on their necks.

  50. If the Coalition lose it’ll be interested to see a the Killing Season style documentary of their time in government. I avoided watching The Killing Season but I think the one for the current government will be quite illuminating.

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