Election minus one day

The latest polling collectively suggests swings to Labor in Victoria and Western Australia, but with way too many close results in prospect for the Coalition to be counted out quite yet.

Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)

The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.

Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.

BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.

Original post

To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.

We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.

Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.

Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.

Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.

The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.

Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.

If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,521 comments on “Election minus one day”

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  1. “If the Coalition lose it’ll be interested to see a the Killing Season style documentary of their time in government.”

    I’m looking forward to Barnaby’s contribution.

  2. Late Riser says:

    The context for the word aspiration is nearly always financial. Used like that “aspiration” is just code for “greed”.

    Damned right. It was why back in The Rodent’s day I called his “aspirationals” the “grasperationals”. A Coalition of the Greedy.

  3. Nostradamus @ #392 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 11:50 am

    John Howard, the greatest prime minister the nation has ever had, may yet save the country on the weekend from the scourges of socialism and political correctness.
    May your life be long and bountiful! I would personally take your franking credits statement every year and wave it around to show the losers of Trades Hall!

    Going to block you now you fool. It was better when you were funny.

  4. I’ve kept track of a lot of the claims and predictions made here over the past 8 months – I make my own now; much to my chagrin I do expect the Coalition to be returned.

    I will be attending an election-night party at a pal’s place and I have placed $100 on the Coalition being returned at 6.00 odds, so that a $500 profit can be spent on a nice meal sometime in the following weeks.

  5. “Question is will Morrison condemn Howard’s coments”

    Other questions with a similar answer:

    Will Morrison join the CFMEU?
    Will Morrison sprout sings and fly around the room?

  6. “Lance Crossfire says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 11:26 am
    Hi all,

    Reposting as this took a while to pass moderation and was back a few pages.

    I’m normally a lurker but I thought some of you may be interested in a short video explaining preferences that I’ve made.

    I suspect everyone here is across the subject, but you may know first time voters or disengaged types who struggle with it.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7P7nPtrdI8

    Feedback is also appreciated.

    Thanks.”

    Good video, not sure how prevalent the “your vote won’t count” advice is though

    Thanks Roger (hmm, Roger, eh?),

    I’ve come across the fear that the vote won’t count quite a lot, which was one of the motivations for the vid. I don’t think it’s direct advice, just a lurking fear in the back of the mind for people not very engaged with politics. They’re not sure how it works, so they play it safe and avoid the independents and minor parties.

  7. Hawke grew into his greatness. Howard shrunk into his meanness. One became a great and beloved former Labor PM. The other lived his whole life as a mean-minded carking funt.

  8. I don’t know how many people stayed up last night watching the ABC’s coverage of Hawke’s legacy, like me. But I was struck by the points being made about the Hawke/Keating economic changes, said many times as is the nature of an unscripted hours long program. The points included (can’t recall them all) that Labor changed the economics of the country for the better. The Liberals had created a moribund Australia. Labor set the country up for prosperity. Australia faced difficult challenges. Hawke was a problem solver. Australia faces difficult challenges now too and we need to solve them. (Not said was we can’t continue as we are.) Parallels were drawn between Labor in 1980s and now. Did anyone else notice this, or was it just my maudlin mind?

  9. “Good post Goll. I would just add though that 90% of punters don’t like the sound of a Retirees Tax. The Coalition’s tricky name for franking credits reform.”

    Never underestimate the stupidity of the australian voter.
    The never politically engaged are more common than you would like to think.
    Those endless mailouts had
    HIGHER TAXES on the front
    How do you think the non thinkers will interpret that?

  10. I suspect Scomo is hoping that they lose Abbott, Dutton and Frydenberg tomorrow.

    They are the only viable opposition leaders that could replace Scomo.

    The liberals haven’t had a prime minister that wasn’t in walking distance of Sydney central since 1983. They haven’t had a PM from outside nsw and vic since 1940. They will not go from Christian porter.

    If the three mentioned lose their seat, Scomo stays opposition leader

  11. Heh. The betting odds seem to have returned to the sugar high from last weekend. No doubt they think Hawke’s death will give Labor a bump just as they’re reaching the finish line.

    (Note: Even the low this week was still had Labor as clear favourites)

  12. Goll,
    While your post was a worthy one, in the posting you have identified without saying so where the nexus of this election is really at and going to be won or lost.

    You spoke, well about 99% of what you wrote, was about fat and contented Baby Boomers, of all nationalities, and not at all about the younger generations, who are also voting tomorrow. THIS is the competitive tension that people focused on the past, as your reflections were, and from that past, as you and many of the people you were observing, are, which lies at the heart of this election. However, there is the fast expanding demographic of 18-30 voters and Young Families to be considered also, and they aren’t as happy as you Baby Boomers, that’s for sure.

    They want action on Climate Change.

    They want action on Wages.

    They want action on Child Care.

    They want action on Domestic Violence.

    They want action on Housing Affordability.

    They want action on out of pocket fees for Health Care.

    They want action on Cancer Care, for their parents, their children and themselves, god forbid they get Cancer.

    And the other important point to make is one I read made by a Baby Boomer themselves: they ARE all dying, sooner likely than later, so Labor are right not to be tailoring their policies at them. In fact, he said it was only right and proper for Labor to go after their perks, they’ve had it too good for too long.

    The Millennials agree. And THEY are the ones who will decide this election.

  13. ‘Patrick Bateman says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 11:17 am

    Edi_Mahin @ #326 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 10:24 am

    Is Trump going to destroy the world economy sending Australia into recession?

    The silver lining to this might be that CO2 output drops temporarily and buys us a couple more years to get our shit together.’

    Perhaps. Perhaps a recession will cause a crash in investment in new power sources and a continuing reliance on same old same old.

  14. shiftaling says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 11:45 am

    Barney – you can also thank Bob Brown mate

    But I was talking about the Greens as a political Party.

    Brown’s environmental successes came as an activist not a politician.

  15. I notice Ladbrokes have pulled betting on individual Victorian seats out of the list of options.

    Well, I can not find it.

    If this is not my bumbling or Ladbrokes’ bumbling, does it mean that there is a Coal betting plunge there?

    Some entity, please allay my fears.

    .

  17. Marcos – how about not worry, given the degree to which the odds bounced around so dramatically after SEAT POLLS, why are these given any serious credence?

  19. If you take a weighted average of primary swings from 2016 for both major parties from the recent YouGov polls (including the latest WA set) you get:

    ALP: +2.71
    LIB: -2.96

    I think this is the most reliable metric you can extract from these polls given the vagaries around preference distribution and the changed mix of the competing parties compared to 2016.

    Notes:
    1. For those seats without sample sizes I applied the average from the seats with sample sizes (542).
    2. I left Stirling out of this calculation because of a lack primaries reported.
    3. For Gilmore, I added current LIB + NAT primaries to attain a swing figure.

    I think William previously estimated these seat polls to favour the Libs by 1.0%. If that’s the case, then I think these results are pretty good for Labor.

    But I guess the big question mark is how the undecideds are going to break on the day. For that we will have to wait for exit polls.

  20. Barney

    Bob Brown had success by working with Gillard and the Crossbench and getting climate legislation up.

    If you claim Medicare which was a resurrection of Medibank you have to claim climate policy returning in the same way.

    The truth no matter how much people try to rewrite history is very simple. That legislation passed.
    As we have seen you cannot appease the deniers. Bob Brown was prominent in not only getting the legislation passed but supporting the government that passed it.

    So yes you can thank Bob Brown for every day the Gillard Government sat. That is the Greens achievement. The Greens worked with Labor on many issues despite the highlighted division we here about now. Concrete results happened. The CEFC survived and is part of the foundation stone of Labor’s policy today. Done with Greens vital support. So yes thank the Greens and Bob Brown. They did achieve in politics.

  22. Guardian just worked out who benefited from watergate.

    An old rowing friend of Taylor’s from Oxford.

    If you’re shocked, you haven’t been paying attention this last 6 years.

    Curious timing of the drop.

  23. Just got Robocalled by peter Simpson from the Gold Coast who told me he has terminal cancel and will be voting Labor tomorrow because their policy is the best one he’s ever seen.

    Onya Pete. All the best to ye.

  25. “If the Coalition lose it’ll be interested to see a the Killing Season style documentary of their time in government. I avoided watching The Killing Season but I think the one for the current government will be quite illuminating.”

    I’ll be surprised if it’s made…

  26. Rossa – If you’re in such major disagreement with any poll aggregation figures (i.e. WB shows 79 seats to Labor) why on earth are you jumping on PollBludger when your time could be better spent reading the tea leaves or the entrails of a chook?

  28. So although he knew nothing about it, very coincidentally a close mate of Taylor’s was a direct beneficiary of this Cayman Islands transaction. How curious.

    I’m happy to see Watergate resurface – it deserves to still be a focus.

    Do I dare get hopeful that with this plus Hawke plus the LNP imploding in NSW that the battle is all but won…?

  29. Guytaur,

    If something is torn down within 3 years you can’t claim it was a success.

    Good idea; yes!
    Success; no!

    It’s exactly the same with healthcare.

    Whitlam tried, but ultimately didn’t succeed, fortunately Hawke was able largely reinstall that idea and cement it as part of the Australian landscape.

    If Labor cement action on climate change then that will be a success.

  30. I don’t think people predicting a coalition win are necessarily trolls.
    But it would be really nice to see some reasoning behind the claims.
    Polls are all wrong, undecideds breaking heavily to the libs, anything?

  31. I am a baby boomer self funded retiree but I have no time for the avarice and greed of many of my generation.
    I remember the song by The Uglys Wake Up My Mind and that sums them up to a tee, especially their attitude to climate change and housing prices.
    You can’t change them. They have a massive sense of entitlement.

  36. Barney in Saigon @ #429 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 12:22 pm

    Guytaur,

    If something is torn down within 3 years you can’t claim it was a success.

    Good idea; yes!
    Success; no!

    It’s exactly the same with healthcare.

    Whitlam tried, but ultimately didn’t succeed, fortunately Hawke was able largely reinstall that idea and cement it as part of the Australian landscape.

    If Labor cement action on climate change then that will be a success.

    The Greens will be required for any climate change legislation to pass.

    Therefore the Greens will have some ownership of any legislation that passes.

  38. PuffyTMD @ #407 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 11:59 am

    Hawke grew into his greatness. Howard shrunk into his meanness. One became a great and beloved former Labor PM. The other lived his whole life as a mean-minded carking funt.

    Just about sums it up! That’s why desiccated coconut is such an apt description of Howard.

  39. Barney in Saigon @ #426 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 12:22 pm

    Guytaur,

    If something is torn down within 3 years you can’t claim it was a success.

    Good idea; yes!
    Success; no!

    It’s exactly the same with healthcare.

    Whitlam tried, but ultimately didn’t succeed, fortunately Hawke was able largely reinstall that idea and cement it as part of the Australian landscape.

    If Labor cement action on climate change then that will be a success.

    According to Alex Turnbull it’s the only way it can be done.

  40. The Libs obviously reckon ‘retiree tax’ will work as well as ‘carbon tax’ did. But I just don’t see Shorten falling for the trap of ‘admitting’ that ‘you could call reforming franking credits a kind of retiree tax’. Plus Tony won’t be in parliament any more 🙂

  41. Barney

    The CEFC survived. Thats a success. Plus the Greens voted with Labor on a lot of legislation. No matter how you look at it the Greens achieved a lot by supporting the Gillard Government. So did all the others that signed up too.

    That support was vital for every piece of legislation that Gillard put to parliament.
    We know that because we heard about it when the Greens did not support legislation.
    Stop looking at the half glass empty and look at what was achieved.

    It was not just the CEFC that survived Abbott’s wrecking mob.

  42. One thing Labor still needs to do is to educate people as to the utter failure of Howard instead of letting people get away with worshipping him.

    Howard presided over a cavalcade of unmitigated bad policy. Howard as a young Liberal was responsible for the whole idea of throwing tax money at buying homes. Howard as Treasurer oversaw high inflation and high interest rates. Howard as Prime Minister brought us a slew of measures designed to give the privileged tax breaks. He starved single pensioners. He privatised Telstra without structural separation. He presided over failure on broadband. He created a monopoly Sydney Airport. He attacked institutions and stacked the boards of the ABC and SBS and many more. He starved universities and started us off down the road of having to import skilled workers from overseas. Hundreds of acts of bad policy.

    Howard was an unmitigated disaster and the fact that some Liberal apologists cling to him is sickening.

  43. I think Bobs death will slow any momentum the L/NP were enjoying.

    Labor will get across the line on the shoulders of the Green vote.

    80 seats to Labor is my prediction for the HoR, based on all the polling.

  45. poroti @ #416 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 10:07 am

    Pretty blunt.

    LIBERAL PARTY
    My father’s old Liberal Party has forgotten its past and its people

    Riven by internal hatreds and bigotry and with its leaders expending their energy on ideological sophistry, Robert Menzies’ old party is unrecognisable.

    1 hour ago by Tony Wright
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/my-father-s-old-liberal-party-has-forgotten-its-past-and-its-people-20190516-p51o0f.html

    That’s a pretty good summation of where the Libs stand at the moment, and why they will lose tomorrow. Maybe not in the landslide they thoroughly deserve, but by enough to trigger the civil war that inevitably awaits them.

  46. The “watergate” plot thickens:

    One of the main beneficiaries of an $80m sale of water to the federal government was a Hong Kong-based investment fund whose founder and chief investment officer attended New College, Oxford, alongside Angus Taylor.

    In 2017, the government paid Eastern Australia Agriculture $80m for its entitlements to overland flows on two properties in Queensland.

    There is no evidence that Taylor played a role in the 2017 sale and he has said he was not aware of it until after it occurred.

    An investor in EAA was Pacific Alliance Group, a Hong Kong-based fund that was established in 2002 by Chris Gradel, who is its chief investment officer.

    Taylor, now the energy minister, and Gradel were both at New College between 1990 and 1993. Both were members of the elite New College boat club. Gradel was captain of boats and Taylor, a Rhodes scholar, lists rowing among the several sports he participated in while at Oxford.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/17/angus-taylors-oxford-rowing-mate-one-of-main-beneficiaries-of-80m-water-deal

  47. Dan Gulberry

    As mentioned above it will just all be a big coincidence cos out of all the billions of people in the world, it just is. Lol!

  49. Rex Douglas says:

    …

    The Greens will be required for any climate change legislation to pass.

    Therefore the Greens will have some ownership of any legislation that passes.

    That depends a lot on the attitude that they bring to the table, they alone won’t have the numbers to allow passage through the Senate.

    If they come with your attitude then they would quickly find themselves on the outer and Labor would seek more reasonable partners.

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