Sundry updates and developments:
• As noted in the regularly updated late counting post, Labor has taken a 67 vote lead in Macquarie, after trailing 39 at the close of counting yesterday. However, there is no guarantee that this represents an ongoing trend to Labor, since most of the gain came from the counting of absents, which would now be just about done. Most of the outstanding votes are out-of-division pre-polls, which could go either way. The result will determine whether the Coalition governs with 77 or 78 seats out of 151, while Labor will have either 67 or 68.
• Labor is reportedly preparing to challenge the result in Chisholm under the “misleading or deceptive publications” provision of the Electoral Act, a much ploughed but largely unproductive tillage for litigants over the years. The Victorian authorities have been rather activist in upholding “misleading or deceptive publications” complaints, but this is in the lower stakes context of challenges to the registration of how-to-vote cards, rather than to the result of an election. At issue on this occasion is Liberal Party material circulated on Chinese language social media service WeChat, which instructed readers to fill out the ballot paper in the manner recommended “to avoid an informal vote”. I await for a court to find otherwise, but this strikes me as pretty thin gruel. The Chinese community is surely aware that Australian elections presume to present voters with a choice, so the words can only be understood as an address to those who have decided to vote Liberal. Labor also have a beef with Liberal material that looked like Australian Electoral Commission material, in Chisholm and elsewhere.
• Political science heavyweights Simon Jackman and Shaun Ratcliff of the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre has breakdowns from a big sample campaign survey in The Guardian, noting that only survey data can circumvent the ecological fallacy, a matter raised in my previous post. The survey was derived from 10,316 respondents from a YouGov online panel, and conducted from April 18 to May 12. The results suggest the Coalition won through their dominance of the high income cohort (taken here to mean an annual household income of over $208,000), particularly among the self-employed, for which their primary vote is recorded as approaching 80%. Among business and trust owners on incomes of over $200,000, the Coalition outpolled Labor 60% to 10%, with the Greens on next to nothing. However, for those in the high income bracket who didn’t own business or trusts, the Coalition was in the low forties, Labor the high thirties, and the Greens the low teens. While Ratcliff in The Guardian seeks to rebut the notion that “battlers” decided the election for the Coalition, the big picture impression for low-income earners is that Labor were less than overwhelmingly dominant.
• As reported in the Financial Review on Friday, post-election polling for JWS Research found Coalition voters tended to rate tax and economic management as the most important campaign issue, against climate change, health and education for Labor voters. Perhaps more interestingly, it found Coalition voters more than twice as likely to nominate “free-to-air” television as “ABC, SBS television” as their favoured election news source, whereas Labor voters plumped for both fairly evenly. Coalition voters were also significantly more likely to identify “major newspapers (print/online)”.
• Two impending resignations from Liberal Senators create openings for losing election candidates. The Financial Review reports Mitch Fifield’s Victorian vacancy looks set to be of interest not only to Sarah Henderson, outgoing Corangamite MP and presumed front-runner, but also to Indi candidate Steve Martin, Macnamara candidate Kate Ashmor and former state MP Inga Peulich.
• In New South Wales, Arthur Sinodinos’s Senate seat will fall vacant later this year, when he takes up the position of ambassador to the United States. The most widely invoked interested party to succeed him has been Jim Molan, who is publicly holding out hope that below-the-line votes will elect him to the third Coalition seat off fourth position on the ballot paper, although this is assuredly not going to happen. As canvassed in the Sydney Morning Herald and the Financial Review, other possible starters include Warren Mundine, freshly unsuccessful in his lower house bid for Gilmore; James Brown, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW, state RSL president and the husband of Daisy Turnbull Brown, daughter of the former Prime Minister; Michael Hughes, state party treasurer and the brother of Lucy Turnbull; Kent Johns, the state party vice-president who appeared set to depose Craig Kelly for preselection in Hughes, but was prevailed on not to proceed; Richard Sheilds, chief lobbyist at the Insurance Council of Australia; Mary-Lou Jarvis, Woollahra councillor and unsuccessful preselection contender in Wentworth; and Michael Feneley, heart surgeon and twice-unsuccessful candidate for Kingsford Smith.
• Federal Labor may have evaded a party membership ballot through Anthony Albanese’s sole nomination, but a ballot is pending for the party’s new state leader in New South Wales, which will pit Kogarah MP Chris Minns against Strathfield MP Jodi McKay. The members’ ballot will be conducted over the next month, the parliamentary party will hold its vote on June 29, and the result will be announced the following day. Members’ ballots in leadership contests are now provided for federally and in most states (as best as I can tell, South Australia is an exception), but this is only the second time one has actually been conducted after the Shorten-Albanese bout that followed the 2013 election. As the Albanese experience demonstrates, the ballots can be circumvented if a candidate emerges unopposed, and the New South Wales branch, for one, has an exception if the vacancy arises six months before an election. Such was the case when Michael Daley succeeded Luke Foley in November, when he won a party room vote ahead of Chris Minns by 33 votes to 12.
Speaking of religious freedom and the conflict with the rights of others.
https://www.advocate.com/politics/2019/5/22/former-indiana-official-wants-buttigieg-denounce-fisting-rimming?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=politics
Looks like Labor has won the Seat of Macquarie by 252 votes…
50.15 to 49.85
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-24310-133.htm
Excuse me for a moment while I try to explain something.
Posted on Twitter by an ex-evangelical @angsty_crone
.
Reference: https://www.azquotes.com/author/24168-Samuel_Chadwick
Thanks Zoidlord
Some good news today. Maybe William will be wrong in his reasonable assumption the court will so hold and we will see a closer number in the House.
I certainly hope Dutton gets challenged as well. I don’t know that it would succeed but it would clear up the doubt about Dutton’s status many have.
Edit: Sorry that should be William’s prediction not assumption
How can homeless pay for flue shots?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-29/flu-shots-for-the-homeless-as-flu-season-worsens/11157298
Is ABC stupid
Guytaur:
Casting aside the absurdity and offensiveness of expecting anyone, regardless of their orientation, to discuss what consensual sex acts they partake in or approve/disapprove of, since when were the particular ones that this lunatic takes umbrage with in any way exclusive to the gay community?
I hope Buttigieg laughed in the guy’s face.
AL
Yes I posted for a reminder of how the religious right assumes it can tell others what to do and that is their religious freedom. The claims of religious people over Folau puts them in the same territory as the infamous mob in the US that even picketed funerals. The same mob that is trying to undo the Roe v Wade decision.
@SBS News tweets
Israel is heading to the polls for a second time this year after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu failed to put together a ruling coalition. http://bit.ly/2JRiuSX
@QuentinDempster tweets
Dannii Minogue tells Anh Doh how her privacy was invaded by @rupertmurdoch ‘s phone hacking UK operatives. Invasive, unethical “celebrity journalism”. #ABC Brush With Fame 29/5/19. https://twitter.com/QuentinDempster/status/1133681434747478016/photo/1
Emissions going up and up and up:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/29/australias-greenhouse-gas-emissions-increased-for-fourth-year-in-a-row-in-2018
So much duck-shoving going on, refusing to accept blame. Doesn’t anyone have authority or compassion?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/reports-of-alarming-self-harm-crisis-on-manus-island-since-government-re-elected-20190529-p51sci.html
I hope the new Aboriginal affairs minister Ken Wyatt can convine the government to hold a ‘citizens assembly’ (composed of politicians and randomly selected citizens) to debate changing the constitution to recognizing First Nations people and provide dedicated First Nations seats in the parliament.
Tristo
Ken Wyatt is about to appear on News Breakfast apparently has legislation to introduce to give a voice to parliament
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
They’re off and running! Conservative Coalition MPs emboldened by strong support from religious voters at the election are pushing the Morrison government for more radical and far-reaching religious freedom provisions in forthcoming laws.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/folau-s-law-coalition-mps-push-for-bolder-action-in-a-new-dawn-for-religious-freedom-20190529-p51s9m.html
And the same might be said about the ABC given what Ita Buttrose has just said.
https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/we-might-be-biased-more-diverse-views-needed-at-abc-says-buttrose-20190529-p51sj2.html
David Wroe says that Trump is harming Australia’s reputation and that our government is unnecessarily relaxed about it.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/donald-trump-is-damaging-australia-s-reputation-we-shouldn-t-be-so-relaxed-20190529-p51sie.html
And he tells us that Alexander Downer has ridiculed the idea he was sent to spy on a junior Donald Trump campaign aide as part of an international conspiracy to kickstart the FBI’s Russia probe.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6190164/complete-beat-up-downer-laughs-off-trumps-russian-probe-conspiracy-theory/?cs=14232
Michael Koziol reports that an Australian navy vessel brought 20 Sri Lankan asylum seekers to the Christmas Island detention centre where they were held for a number of days before being sent home on Wednesday. Was it the pull factor?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/boatload-of-20-sri-lankan-asylum-seekers-brought-to-christmas-island-report-20190529-p51skd.html
Phil Coorey shows us how ability has taken a back seat to factional alignment in the choice of Labor frontbenchers.
https://www.outline.com/YqJaWm
John Wanna writes that policies, not posturing, will help Albanese shake the ‘left-wing’ tag and restore faith in his party.
https://theconversation.com/policies-not-posturing-will-help-albanese-shake-the-left-wing-tag-and-restore-faith-in-his-party-117817
Michelle Pini says that in the latest Cabinet reshuffle, regurgitated and newly appointed ministers, some with questionable credentials, to say the least, have already been waxing lyrical about the supposed “mandate” for the most objectionable of the Government’s policies.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/stuart-robert-and-4-more-we-cant-afford-including-an-annoying-envoy,12757
Sarah Martin also contributes on the above issue.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/29/albanese-to-reveal-frontbench-while-fighting-to-contain-factional-heavyweights
Jennifer Hewett tells us about a gung ho Angus Taylor saying that bipartisanship means accepting what the government wants when it comes to the energy “big stick”.
https://www.outline.com/68vJBc
According to Scott Colvin the way Australia votes is broken.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-way-australia-votes-is-broken,12752
Stephen Koukoulas explains why you need to buy a house NOW!
https://thekouk.com/item/678-here-s-why-you-need-to-buy-a-house-now.html
Christopher Knaus reports that Defence has been ordered to hand over the navy chief’s diary to the senator investigating a particular arms contract. Nice work from Rex Patrick.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/30/defence-ordered-to-hand-over-navy-chiefs-diary-to-senator-investigating-arms-contract
The AFR says borrowers will be the beneficiaries of a likely cut to the cash rate next week, as banks prepare to reset mortgage rates to fresh record lows.
https://www.outline.com/fj7UgS
Nick Bonyhady reports that Anthony Albanese has confirmed Bill Shorten will be given a place on the Labor frontbench if the former opposition leader wants one.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-would-accept-shorten-on-his-frontbench-if-he-wants-a-place-20190529-p51skc.html
The SMH editorial says that Albanese should not be shy of changing course.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-must-not-be-shy-of-changing-course-20190529-p51sdg.html
Andrew Mackenzie tells us why BHP backs an Indigenous voice to parliament.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/let-this-nation-shine-why-bhp-backs-an-indigenous-voice-to-parliament-20190529-p51sd3.html
Michael Pascoe has great concern for the integrity of Frydenberg’s review of the retirement income system. A good read!
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2019/05/29/retirement-income-review-josh-frydenberg/
In an excellent contribution the director of the drug and alcohol unit at St Vincent’s Hospital puts the case to retain Sydney’s lockout laws.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/don-t-lock-out-the-facts-on-lockout-laws-they-ve-made-this-city-safer-20190529-p51sfm.html
The science says one of our most endangered bird species – the black-throated finch – is at serious risk under the present Adani plan to dig up the Galilee Basin for coal. Research professor Bill Laurance pleads for the Queensland Co-ordinator-Genera to take this into account when bringing down the decision on Adani’s plan by tomorrow.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/clock-ticking-for-the-black-throated-finch-a-plea-before-adani-d-day-20190529-p51s8w.html
Doug Dingwall reports that the federal government’s largest department will rebrand for the first time in its 15-year life as newly sworn Prime Minister Scott Morrison puts it at the centre of plans to overhaul the bureaucracy’s dealings with the public.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6189669/rebrand-for-human-services-department-as-coalition-charges-it-with-it-reform/?cs=14350
Richard Denniss posits that while Australian political debate has never seemed more sharply divided, the philosophical lines between left and right have never seemed more blurred.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/29/whats-left-and-right-in-australian-politics-today-the-lines-are-shifting
Stephen Bartholomeusz explains how while it might have made a somewhat belated start to that process, the T22 program offers the potential to create a new and more nimble Telstra and, therefore, the news that it is reaching its milestones ahead of schedule is positive, despite the extra red ink in this year’s accounts.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/telstra-s-700m-of-new-losses-perversely-is-good-news-for-andy-penn-20190529-p51sat.html
Centrelink staff have continued to issue welfare debts they know could be incorrect under pressure to meet performance targets despite the government’s efforts to reform the controversial scheme, employees have alleged.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/29/centrelink-still-issuing-incorrect-robodebts-to-meet-targets-staff-claim
Patrick Hatch goes into how Coles and Woolies’ secret weapon in war with Aldi is data analytics.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/coles-and-woolies-secret-weapon-in-war-with-aldi-is-data-20190529-p51sej.html
Lisa Martin reports that Australia and New Zealand’s health star food rating system has been dismissed as flawed in a new study because salty, sugary and fatty products are scoring too highly due to loopholes in the system and unhealthy items often avoid carrying the labels entirely.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/30/unhealthy-products-are-gaming-flawed-health-star-food-rating-study-finds
This contribution in The Conversation explains how homelessness has soared in our biggest cities, driven by rising inequality since 2001.
https://theconversation.com/homelessness-soars-in-our-biggest-cities-driven-by-rising-inequality-since-2001-117833
Mental giant Matt Canavan has shrugged off Australia’s further greenhouse gas emissions increase.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/29/australias-greenhouse-gas-emissions-increased-for-fourth-year-in-a-row-in-2018
Missouri may lose its last abortion clinic this week. That’s dark news for all in the US writes Jill Filipovic.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/29/missouri-last-abortion-clinic-dark-news
Nick Miller has a look at what the charges against Boris Johnson for lying during the Brexit referendum campaign might mean for him.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/boris-johnson-accused-should-a-political-campaign-lie-be-a-crime-20190530-p51sks.html
This charming lady is the first person subject to an Unexplained Wealth Order, which allows British authorities to seize assets from people suspected of corruption or links to organised crime until the owners account for how they were acquired. She certainly has no compunction in squandering it!
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/choccies-for-58-825-court-lists-woman-s-35m-harrods-shopping-spree-20190529-p51s6w.html
Matthew Knott outlines what Robert Muller said in his first outing after the release of his report.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/robert-mueller-breaks-his-silence-on-russia-probe-in-shock-press-conference-20190530-p51ske.html
Nancy Pelosi has called Facebook executives ‘willing enablers’ of Russian interference.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/pelosi-calls-facebook-execs-willing-enablers-of-russian-interference-20190530-p51sl5.html
Bloomberg continues to dig as it reports that an Ethiopian Airlines pilot told senior managers at the carrier months before one of its Boeing 737 MAX jets crashed that more training and better communication to crew members was needed to avert a repeat of a similar disaster involving a Lion Air flight.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/it-will-be-a-crash-for-sure-pilot-warned-before-737-max-disaster-20190529-p51sep.html
Have a look at this! Our phones are beavering away while we are asleep sending all sorts of data about us to third parties.
https://www.theage.com.au/technology/do-you-know-who-your-iphone-talks-to-when-you-re-sleeping-20190529-p51s9e.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe uses Everest to make his point.
Cathy Wilcox with Morrison’s economic miracle.
From Matt Golding.
Nice work here from Andrew Dyson.
David Pope sings Albo’s problems.
John Shakespeare on the indigenous voice.
Zanetti.
Glen Le Lievre and what interests Australia.
Jon Kudelka takes aim at Warren Entsch.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/64d6c2141708c9e5619211ea9b3772e8?width=1024
From the US
I know it’s mean but when you have idiots that attack others…
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/christian-home-destroyed-flood-tony-perkins-natural-disasters-gods-punishment-homosexuality-a7196786.html
I sure hope it comes for the National party members especially Joyce….
Isn’t it ironic that the MSM hyperventilates over ‘brawling factions’ in Labor, but sees no problem in Libs’ promotion of ministers previously demoted for bad behaviour.
Labor is preparing to install @JEChalmers as the new shadow treasurer, as part of a shake-up to its new frontbench, writes @PhillipCoorey #Insiders #InsidersReading #auspol
Zoid
Good to see. A new economics team means a new approach and could just be the change Labor needs. I hope it presages moving away from neo liberalism of the Thatcher and Reagan years and is a move towards such things as a People’s Bank that is supported on the right as well as the left.
Those voters that voted against their interest over Franking Credits could be enticed back to voting for Labor.
@jenbechwati tweets
Labor’s @SenatorDoug parting words to his party “Don’t move to the right!” #7News #auspol
https://theconversation.com/homelessness-soars-in-our-biggest-cities-driven-by-rising-inequality-since-2001-117833
I wonder how much influence these US right wing ‘evangelicals’ had on our election. Almost certainly there are links between Morrison’s happy clappers and their equivalents in the US.
@CNN tweets
Trump’s anti-transgender proposal is the opposite of Christian love | By Jennifer Butler for @CNNOpinion https://cnn.it/2I44QbA https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1133868133041807360/photo/1
Once again http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/05/study-trump-tax-cuts-failed-growth-investment.html
Shocking
For a start let’s not call the issue one of religious “freedoms” it should be called what it it is about , religious ‘restrictions’ or ‘impositions’. The religion nutters want to restrict other people’s employment etc etc they want to impose their religious view on others. The only ‘freedom’ involved is their wish have the ‘freedom’ to impose their flavor of god bothering on everyone else.
What’s left and right?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/29/whats-left-and-right-in-australian-politics-today-the-lines-are-shifting
Qld labor’s laws designed to stifle the renewable energy industry and protect coal jobs have been declared invalid.
I hope the government was made to cover the costs of the renewables developers that challenged them.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/queensland-solar-rule-change-declared-invalid-by-supreme-court-64754/
Bad news for Trump
@Taniel tweets
Huge voting rights news! Nevada’s gov just signed a law that restores voting rights when ppl leave incarceration.
People on probation & parole, and many who’d served sentence, were disenfranchised. They can now vote.
More than 3% of NV’s voting-age population can newly vote!
Costs ordinarily follow the event so I imagine they’ll cover some of the legal costs of the challenge.
Although given the regulation was just invalidly made, I presume they could just amend the Act so that it can be properly made.
@ltep – it’s possible they will amend the Act.
I believe the main argument they took to court is that mounting solar panels (not connecting them) is mechanical work, not electrical. Therefore the electrical safety act can’t apply.
It’d be pretty hard to amend the electrical safety act to apply to mechanical safety without opening up several cans of worms and looking foolish.
I think they’ll chalk it up as a loss and work out some other subsidies for coal miners and coal mining regions (such as the royalty freeze in return for the voluntary pork barreling as discussed in the budget)
Zoidlord @ #573 Thursday, May 30th, 2019 – 8:53 am
I had already factored this into my recent rants to whomever cared to listen. Hint – nobody. 😵
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-30/climate-change-and-manmade-change-affecting-english-language/11152380
Edit: If its good enough for the Guardian it should be good enough for Labor politicians.
Voice Endeavour @ #577 Thursday, May 30th, 2019 – 9:17 am
I hope they do the first thing, and then forget all about the second thing.
How far to the conservative right will ScoMo’s govt take us, before Labor gets angry enough to rise up and defeat them?
guytaur @ #581 Thursday, May 30th, 2019 – 9:20 am
Seriously?
Re Lexy Downer and his ‘ho ho ho’ at the spy crap. Look up Alexander Downer and Richard Dearlove and the business they in together. Dearlove is a former head of MI6 so ‘Agent Fishnets’ helping out is not beyond the realms of possibility.
Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.
I hope you are keeping up with whatever helps with depression following the election and the now Everest sized mountains of bullshit being muckraked for public edification.
I predict that I will not live to see –
Aboriginal recognition in the Constitution (or anywhere else).
An Australian Republic.
A flag which represents Australia.
A federal ICAC with broad public powers.
I am doing my bit by uttering the magic word (fuggem) many times a day. So far this seems to have had no effect – but I remain confident.
Cool day in Newcastle – currently 25℃ with winds to 25 kph.
😵☕
Salk;
Many vocal posters here are not independent thinkers, they need an authority to lead them, they cant see it or the weakness of their position.
BK @ #562 Thursday, May 30th, 2019 – 7:59 am
Australians voted for extinction, and most of them will probably get it 🙁
Pascoe
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2019/05/29/retirement-income-review-josh-frydenberg/
autocrat
Yes. Changes the way politics on climate is debated. The Guardian changed its editorial guidelines on the Climate Crisis after the IPCC report came down recently outlining how meeting Paris Targets will be a fail as the modelling was too conservative.
I don’t know if the two are connected but thats my assumption.
And all this under the no-so-steady hand of Mr Robert.
https://www.itnews.com.au/news/morrison-scraps-department-of-human-services-525872?utm_source=desktop&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=share
Matt…..you’re mistaken about the Lib-kin. They originated as a Labor breakaway. They detest Labor and hope to destroy it. They despise working people and contrive to thwart them politically and in every other way. Labor will not win another federal election if the Lib-kin have anything to do with it.
bug1 @ #587 Thursday, May 30th, 2019 – 9:27 am
Says the guy who is an uncritical acolyte of Julian Assange. 😐
Regarding the adolescent nature of our MSM. They chase the next bright shining narrative on a daily basis, slavishly spruiking, dissecting and “interpreting” the entrails of every poll, especially two-party-preferred and PM-preferred metrics. Moreover, Emperor Murdoch long ago mastered the dark art of weaponising his various polls to replace party Leaders.
In contrast, with real votes being counted and the final balance of power in the Senate still remaining to be determined, it’s only fringe-dwellers of the MSM such as William Bowe who give more than a scintilla of a damn about the actual results of this election and what they might portend for the way the Senate could alter or reject the Government’s legislation. Poor fellow, our country.
Hiya all, just a random thought, the ABC’s “well take you there” jingle samples and totally destroys one of the great Ska tunes “liquidator”
Briefly,
Try welcoming them in rather than trying to repel.
The Greens helped procure a ‘miracle’ win for the most reactionary, incompetent and corrupt government in Australian history, and in doing so effectively aligned their campaign efforts with the mining billionaires and with the front for National Socialism, ON. Their reward will be the dismantling of every measure aimed at responding to climate change.
They have already renewed their campaign against Labor, as we can read even here in the bludgers’ salon. They place their enmity for Labor ahead of every consideration, including climate change and resistance to the politics of persecution.
There is no way the Greens can be totally blamed for Labor’s defeat.