The last two-party preferred count for the lower house is complete, leaving the Coalition with a national two-party preferred total of 51.53%, which is exactly the result that was projected by the opinion polls, albeit for the wrong party. The Australian Electoral Commission website continues to record that 288 declaration vote envelopes remain unprocessed, of which 234 are in the seat of Kingsford Smith, but I suspect that may just reflect tardiness in keeping these numbers updated.
We should also have the last Senate result finalised this morning, that being in Victoria, where a result of three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens is assured. Counts were finalised yesterday in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. To complement previous efforts for New South Wales and Tasmania, I offer the following displays showing how the preference distributions proceeded. In each case they record where the votes stood after the election of candidates with full quotas at the start of the count, and also in the final stages, where three seats were decided in Queensland, and two were decided in Western Australia and South Australia.
First up, Queensland, where the result was three for the Coalition (Paul Scarr, Susan McDonald and Gerard Rennick, all newcomers) and one apiece for Labor (Nita Green, also a newcomer), One Nation (Malcolm Roberts, returning after falling foul of Section 44 and having his seat pass to Fraser Anning, whose own party proved uncompetitive) and the Greens (Larissa Waters, another Section 44 casualty who had already returned to the Senate after her successor, Andrew Bartlett, agreed to make way for her ahead of the election). Queensland was the one state where the result was not clear long in advance, although in the final analysis it wasn’t really all that close. The Coalition won two seats straight off the bat and Labor one, leaving Green, Roberts, Waters and Labor’s second candidate, Chris Ketter, in the mix for the last three. There never seemed much doubt that the fourth seat would go to One Nation and the fifth to the Coalition, but Labor might have hoped the dual miracle of a strong performance in late counting and unexpectedly strong preference flows could have given Ketter the last seat at the expense of Waters. In fact though, Ketter trailed Waters by 52,767 votes (1.8%) at the start of proceedings, which widened to 78,681 (2.7%) by the end, with Waters doing predictably well out of preferences from Animal Justice and Help End Marijuana Prohibition – although she didn’t quite make it to a quota.
Now to Western Australia, which has returned three Liberals (incumbents Linda Reynolds and Slade Brockman, and newcomer Matt O’Sullivan), two Labor (incumbents Patrick Dodson and Louise Pratt) and one Greens (incumbent Jordon Steele-John). Reynolds, Brockman and Dodson were elected off the bat; O’Sullivan got most of the way there when the 1.4% Nationals vote was distributed; and Pratt and Steele-John were always going to get there late in the count ahead of One Nation incumbent Peter Georgiou.
South Australia produced the same result as Western Australia (and indeed New South Wales and Victoria, if the Coalition is considered collectively), the three Liberals being incumbents Anne Ruston and David Fawcett, and newcomer Alex Antic; Labor returning incumbent Alex Gallacher and newcomer Marielle Smith; and the Sarah Hanson-Young retaining her seat for the Greens. The top two on the Liberal and Labor tickets were elected off the bat; Hanson-Young made a quota after the third Labor candidate and the Help End Marijuana Prohibition candidate dropped out; and Antic stayed well clear of One Nation throughout to take the last seat.
The overall picture in the Senate was summarised here a few weeks ago – all that’s different now is that the “likely” qualification can be removed from Queensland.
Update: Victorian Senate result
The Victorian result was finalised this morning (Wednesday), producing the anticipated result of three seats for the Liberals (incumbents James Patterson and Jane Hume, and newcomer David Van), two for Labor (Raff Ciccone, who came to the Senate after filling a casual vacancy in March, and Jess Walsh, a newcomer) and one for the Greens (incumbent Janet Rice). The chart below follows the same format as those above, and shows that this was not a close run thing. The Coalition and Labor both had two quotas on ticket votes, leaving two seats to be determined through the preference distribution. Labor’s third candidate, incumbent Gavin Marshall, was never in contention, and his exclusion pushed the Greens to a quota with Van, Derryn Hinch and One Nation still in the count. One Nation then were excluded, leaving David Van well ahead of Hinch to take the final seat, without making it to a quota.
Amendment to previous load of codswallop
and so – in answer to your original question
I am shocked and bewildered that anybody would ask such a question of Mr. (what was that name again) McGrath..
Mr. McGrath was playing a clever game – attempting to capture the FWit vote of Queensland and to assist in his clever plan to ……………….
…………………………………………………………………………….
Refund available at the door. Ask for Muriel.
Folau must think A Jones is going to hell. Is he onto this?
If there is to be another Labor PM, it’s very likely they’re not now in the Parliament.
“Lovey says:
Saturday, June 22, 2019 at 10:00 am
Folau must think A Jones is going to hell. Is he onto this?”
Folau’s thinking is like the Evangelicals in the US. They support Trump despite him being a terrible “sinner” because he does things that they want.
No contract can require someone to abandon theur religious beliefs. That’s impossible anyway. Beliefs are beliefs.
But I can see that a contract may require someone to temper their public behaviour based on those beliefs. In Folau’s case, his contract is arguably more than just to run up and down a football pitch once a week. It is to also be an ambassador for the game. That is, it appears to cover more than on-field behaviour.
If all Folau wanted to do was play a good game of Rugby he could join the Bankstown Wanderers or the Pennant Hills Eagles, and get his kicks that way. I doubt whether either would pay him $1 million a year to do so.
The basic rule of behaviour in top level sport nowadays seems to be that players don’t denigrate other people to the point where this behaviour becomes notorious and attracts bad publicity to the game itself. It wouldn’t surprise me if the ARU has discretion to nominate objectionable behaviour (that may not be specifically covered in the contract), counsel or warn the player for it, and only then take disciplinary action if the behaviour is repeated.
You’d think that if the ARU has a policy of attracting players without regard to their sexuality, then one of their star players publicly telling other potential players that, regardless of their own religious beliefs (which may say that God lives gay people too), they’re going to Hell could be considered as objectionable to the game.
In other words, better to keep religion out of it, at least in public. You just can’t have prominent sports stars freelancing in public about the fate and supposed immorality of other players, and being paid the big bucks to do so.
Jones, like Trump, is a ‘useful heathen’, in the sense of ‘useful idiot’.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-22/temperature-increases-from-climate-change-brisbane-unliveable/11227404
briefly:
[‘If there is to be another Labor PM, it’s very likely they’re not now in the Parliament.’]
It that due to your view that Labor will be out of office for the next twenty years(?). I can’t see this apology for a government surviving a second term; it has the worst ministry since McMahon’s, and on the precipice of a recession, with no planned fiscal stimulus other than balancing the budget.
Blobbit @ #1097 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 12:22 am
A couple of things:
1. The employee consented, in advance, to that curtailment, and was compensated handsomely for it.
2. When your job is to basically be a role-model and a representative of your sport on the nationwide stage, literally everything you broadcast in public is legitimately related to your job.
Did you attend the march wearing their official livery or otherwise publicly advertise yourself as their representative while attending the march? Or is your job to be a full-time public representative for them, which you’re widely recognized as being? If so, they most likely are.
This makes me wonder which other MPs (from any party) are on similar gravy trains.
lizzie says:
Saturday, June 22, 2019 at 10:19 am
An alarming report has found temperature increases from climate change and urban growth will make Brisbane “a difficult place to live” within the next 30 years, and more people will be at risk of dying from extreme heat.
All the analysis shows things are getting worse and that the trajectories will become more accentuated very quickly.
The chemistries of the atmosphere and the oceans are being changed by us in ways that are incompatible with life as we have known it. The economic impacts of this are already being felt and observed. The political reflex in this country has been to shift to the Right. This is consistent with our political culture, which has been Right leaning for most of the time prior to and since Federation. There have been just 3 successful exceptions to the Right-ward shift. They were the Governments of Curtin/Chifley, Gough and Hawke.
lizzie:
Angus Taylor is clearly a leaner in every sense of the word!
If the Morrison Government can’t find a way of saying yes to fiscal expansion in the next three years they will become terminally unpopular and they will limp to defeat at the next election.
The external sector (the rest of the world) is unlikely to inject demand into the domestic private sector in the next three years.
Typically the external sector drains demand out of Australia’s domestic private sector.
Australia usually runs current account deficits with regard to the rest of the world.
The rest of the world usually runs current account surpluses with regard to Australia.
There’s no problem with that. It just means that there are only three possible demand injections that we can rely on:
1. domestic private sector dissaving (i.e. Australian households and businesses spending down their savings)
2. domestic private sector going into debt
3. federal government deficit spending
These best option is 3.
lizzie @ #1109 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 6:47 am
It seems to me Albanese is removing another barnacle – this time it’s a Bill Shorten zinger ‘top end of town’. Smart by Albanese.
I’m sure Albanese will find a different way to describe people of different incomes.
briefly
IMO, the Hawke/Keating governments slowly shifted to the right during their time in office, which may be why they lasted so long. Gough, bless his heart, didn’t and was tossed out.
Can someone please tell Albo (and the rest) to stop talking about “the top end of town” before it costs Labor another election?
That was Shorten’s thing. Let it go with Shorten.
Nicholas, there might be a serious recession. The working assumption is this would lead to the election of a Labor Government. This is at the very least open to question. The parts of WA and QLD that are already badly recessed swung hard to the Right in the recent election. There is absolutely no reason to think this would not be repeated in other areas if they also become affected by recession.
I think the economy is in a very weak state. I also think this will favour the Right. The environment is in a perilous state. This will also favour the Right.
The dysfunction on the left-of-centre means they cannot settle on and communicate an effective political, economic or environmental strategy that a majority will support.
We’re fucked. Get used to it.
briefly @ #1149 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 9:56 am
Albanese will lead Labor to victory at the next election.
He will steadily remove the barnacles that held Labor back.
He will frame Morrison as the shonky salesman while he builds his own relationship with the voters with simple authentic sounding messaging over the next 3 yrs.
I like Albo. He’s easy to listen to and easy to like. But he cannot do it. He should quit now before he’s destroyed.
Ben Popjie, Crikey.
Folau signed a contract, he broke the contract so he doesn’t get the benefit anymore. He is now free to say what he wants.
If the government is smart it will abandon its foolish and economically irrelevant interest in presiding over a fiscal surplus.
Instead the government will say something like, “The Australian economy is facing serious headwinds. The unemployment and under-employment rates will go up unless the governments acts. It is the role of the federal government to support employment and demand when the private sector is struggling.”
If the government sticks to its commitment to aim to preside over a fiscal surplus (a really foolish thing to do), many more people will lose their jobs, and many more businesses will fail – far more than would have occurred had the government chosen fiscal expansion.
The consequence of all that economic pain would be terminal unpopularity for the government.
The Opposition would just need to look plausible and not screw up.
Lizzie @10:24. I am assuming that those dollar amounts represent grants of public money to the listed organisations under some program (which?) run by Angus Taylor’s ministry.
I’m very concerned about Labor deliberately falling back into wishy washy visionless, neocon, yes labor can vote for the flattening of the tax scale because ‘brains’.
Frankly if they want to be ‘slightly nicer’ libs they are doomed because we’d rather torture and kill refugees than have nice in Australia. We are racist morons, so this whole nice neocon stuff is doomed to failure. KK has gotta go, trying to take Dutton from the right, is insanely stupid. Albo is already being put into the news corp ‘not likeable’ frame, in the leadup to the polls all saying he is unlikeable and the ABC clowns stating the ‘facts’.
I give up pretty much.
Having employers, say like news corp, being the determinants of what is acceptable free public speech and what is hate speech, through contracts is insanely stupid, particularly for progressives. Dumbest possible thing. Insane.
I hope the ALP oppose flattening the income tax structure. It shouldn’t be too difficult to oppose it. Just say that flattening the income tax structure will turbo charge inequality of wealth and income. We have a progressive income tax structure in order to minimize inequality of wealth and income. The LNP want to make us a less equal society. The ALP should not help them.
Steve777
Not necessarily directed by a Taylor connection. See notes on RHS of table.
How lucky is Angus!
BB
Jones is not out of the closet. What he is doing is classic triangulation in the culture wars.
It is like ‘The Australian’ going in to bat for Indigenous people – as long as it involves Indigenous people doing bad things to Indigenous people or Indigenous people not coping and need some partriarchal support or Indigenous people being ruined by socialism and giving writing space to hand picked Murdoch stooges like Price, Pearson and Mundine.
… but never reporting on the swingeing damage being done by systemic programs of bastardization by robocop and by cuts of hundreds of millions to Indigenous program and by the continuing lack of self-management opportunities.
Folau signed a contract, he broke the contract so he doesn’t get the benefit anymore. He is now free to say what he wants.
_____
That’s right. Now he’s just a brainwashed idiot. Before he was a brainwashed idiot breaking the conditions of a contract he agreed to and signed.
WeWantPaul
If any pollster dares to publish results it will certainly be interesting.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/08/31/france-first-ban-five-pesticides-killing-bees/
Trump’s near brush with starting a general Middle East war only just made it to page 13 in today’s ‘The Australian’. There was not the slightest mention of possible implications for Australia.
Far more space was given to Sheridan sucking up Johnson. The last British Prime Minister Sheridan sucked up to was May. She was ‘The Lioness.’ Sheridan polishes the Johnson turd with extreme dexterity.
Then Jennings gets extensive space to extol the virtues of increasing the number of US troops stationed in Darwin, increasing the pre positioning of US military equipment near Darwin and increasing the US air force training in Darwin. Jennings also alluded to a possible deal between Australia and the US for the positioning of missile defences around Darwin. I assume that these will be Patriots.
Jensen does not mention the current thrashing China is giving to our coal exports – as if there is no possible policy connections between military and trade policies. It is genuine fuckwit territory.
Now here is the thing. None of these shifts are being debated by our Parliament which is not sitting.
Morrison, Payne, Reynolds are silent. The scribblers are largely silent. The commentariat is largely silent.
Nothing is more important than the culture wars of Setka and Folau, and whether Labor will buckle to the Government’s idiotic tax cut program.
De facto, the US defence establishment in Darwin more or less automatically puts us at war with Iran in the case the Hormuz stuff blows up. It also more or less automatically puts us at war with China if there is an East Asian fuck up. Parliament is not debating that either. Trump is lurching wildly on all sorts of triggers. In the morning we have a possible war with Iran. In the afternoon, well, maybe not.
There have been no official Australian Government statements about either of these sets of changes.
Australian democracy: fucked.
ar
I thought “top end of town” was banned by Labor ten years ago.
Interviewee Jim Chalmers.
Boerwar
I’m sure that when Scomo returns from his well-deserved break he will fix everything and have lots of opinions. Or not. 😉
Sorry to keep banging on about this, but he should NOT be begging for money.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7167209/Israel-Folaus-6-5MILLION-glittering-property-portfolio-revealed-begs-Australians-money.html?ito=amp_twitter_share-top
Australia has just voted for greed and comforting lies.
And the United States is being run by a volatile idiot, surrounded by warmongers and religious zealots.
The 21st century had proved rather disappointing so far.
I’m sure that when Scomo returns from his well-deserved break he will fix everything and have lots of opinions. Or not.
____
How good is that!
When we talk about religious freedom we ought to be worried about all the government services outsourced to religious organisations like
NDIS
Job Network Providers
Housing services for homeless
Housing services for women fleeing domestic violence
Aboriginal services
Aged Care
Hospitals
Care in the home
What happens to those brave souls who tell the provider that they don’t believe in Jesus. God help muslims
https://www.outline.com/KBYgLM
Israel Folau is a bigoted god bothering rugby player.
billie says:
Damned right. That @$@$@!! Howard was bigly into that.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-21/wa-government-issues-chinese-company-a-stop-work-order-over-kim/11231758
Lizzie I would like to see the operating & management costs of Hillsong health and care empire- but as they are a charity they don’t have to publish financial accounts. I bet their management costs are inflated.
A friend worked for the Salvation Army. He got a stipend (a low wage that was tax free) and a credit card for expenses. When we went out to dinner we would give him cash and he would pay on his card.
Another friend worked for a job network provider in the disability sector. It was a registered charity and my friend sourly noted that it appeared to have been established to provide work for the manager who was an incompetent law graduate from a ‘good’ family
They only get to determine that for their employees, when acting in the capacity of an employee, and only if they pay them extra for it, and only if each employee consents without coercion or undue influence. That’s how contracts work.
Besides, newscorp’s agenda is nakedly obvious. People who don’t want to actively contribute to it know better than to apply there in the first place.
So let them pay extra salary to keep their employees from saying things they wouldn’t be saying anyways. It’s less money for Murdoch that way. 🙂
WeWantPaul says:
Saturday, June 22, 2019 at 11:08 am
..
Having employers, say like news corp, being the determinants of what is acceptable free public speech and what is hate speech, through contracts is insanely stupid, particularly for progressives. Dumbest possible thing. Insane.
If Newscorp reporters signed a contract that they will kiss an image of Murdoch’s boots in the morning then that is what they have agreed to do. Don’t kiss, murdoch suspends contract under the terms of the contract then you don’t get the benefits of the contract.
Contract are improtant; read the bloody things.
Anyone else having issues with the site?
I have submitted two comments using the quote function and neither has appeared.
Zoomster
Your comment about matters implied by the constitution is spot on.
I find it quite amusing on PB and other sites, and in news bulletins too, where people who have over time picked up a phrase/word from other news reports, and turn it into what they want.
So over time they hear of cases where the HC has legitimately decided some matter (usually some passed legislation) is “unconstitutional”. They then co-opt that word and use it in any way they wish, to argue some matter, thinking it is a powerful (and appropriate) legal phrase to apply as they wish.
A classic example is the very wide (mis) appropriation of the term “duty of care” which is often used whenever the user has the mere opinion that some person is responsible for what happens (or not) to some other person.
“Duty of care”, from the law of negligence, has a precise legal meaning and only exists when evidence (in line with case law precedents) says it exists.
An example of mis use might be when someone has the opinion that “Fred had a duty of car to ring the cops when he heard shouting from the 4th house up the street from his, and then the husband would have not gone on to kill HS wife later that night”. It might be seen as Fred’s civic duty to call the cops, but it is unlikely he had a duty of care to do so.