Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

No change at all on voting intention in the latest Newspoll, which records a mixed bag of movements on the leaders’ personal ratings.

The Australian reports absolutely no change on voting intention in the latest Newspoll, which is now appearing predictably on a three-weekly schedule. The Coalition continues to lead 51-49 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 33%, Greens 13% (maintaining a four-year high) and One Nation 6%. Scott Morrison is steady on 47% approval and up two on disapproval to 45%, while Anthony Albanese’s ratings continue to yo-yo, with approval down two to 37% and disapproval up four to 44%. Despite that, Morrison’s lead as preferred minister is now at 47-32, narrowing from 50-31. The field work period was presumably Thursday to Sunday, and the sample presumably between 1600 and 1700. UPDATE: The sample was 1634, consisting of 953 online and 681 automated phone poll surveys, the latter breakdown still being the only concession offered to greater transparency since the election.

Note also below this post Adrian Beaumont’s latest on Brexit and Canada.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,139 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Queen Victoria
    @Vic_Rollison

    Clover Moore is reported to have questioned the figures with the Tele – in other words, she told them they were bullshit, and yet Daily Tele went ahead and made a news story out of them anyway. Good insight into what goes on at Murdoch media.

    No doubt they will be “standing by our story”.

    As to Taylor, you can just see the staffer lurk merchant telling him to brazen it out.

    “Maaate… just tell ’em you’ve answered the question in full. They can’t touch you without calling you a liar. And if they call you a liar, then it’s a matter for the privileges committee. Simple!”

  4. Exactly what crime is the ALP alleging has been committed by some lowly staffer in the office of the Minister for Energy and Emissions Reduction?

  6. guytaur @ #1030 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 4:12 pm

    That’s why Corbyn will do better next time. His position is put whatever parliament comes up with back to the people.

    That may work, but only if he backs it up by clearly articulating that he personally and unequivocally favors Remain. Which as far as I’m aware he actually doesn’t, so he won’t. That’s why everyone is running to the LibDems.

  8. There are grounds for suspicion that someone in Taylor’s office has been forging documents to embarrass a political opponent. Certainly there may be alternative explanations, but whatever the case, an investigation is very clearly warranted, and Labor is rightly demanding one.

  10. frednk says:
    Thursday, October 24, 2019 at 7:02 pm

    guytaur
    If Corbyn is leader Labour will lose. No fancy words will change that.

    Corbyn is proposing to go to a Brexit-ratification election without a Brexit policy. They don’t deserve to get any support at all. They won’t. They are asking to be gutted and they will be.

  11. David Littleproud on 7.30 asked Question “A” provides answers to Questions “B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, Q, R, S, T, U, V, W, X, Y, Z”.

    He has also mastered ScoMo’s talent for drawing breath through his ears while continuing to bullshit.

  12. Tristo,

    I am convinced Scott Morrison is a young earth creationist, climate change denialist and might believe in the rapture. Also I would not be surprised, if he believes everybody who does not recognize Jesus Christ as their lord and savior is going hell. Although those are pretty common beliefs for Pentecostal Christians, I know because I was involved in Conservative Evangelical Christianity for several years around the turn of this decade and knew many Pentecostal Christians as a result.

    However in regards to the possibility Scott Morrison believes in conspiracy theories such as say ‘Cultural Marxism’ or QAnon, I am not sure he subscribes to them, although he might very well using them as politically useful. Although if I were still a Pentecostal Christian, I would be subscribing to the Cultural Marxism conspiracy theory although.

    But I can’t think Labor can electorally profit from attacking Scott Morrison as a religious nutter. Since conservative Christians in Australia, feel like they are a beleaguered persecuted minority. They certainly believed so during the Same Sex Marriage plebiscite, which energized a lot of them. These people I argue helped the Liberals gain Lindsay in Sydney, increase their majorities in seats in Western Sydney they already held. Also prevented Labor from gaining Chisholm in the Eastern Suburbs of Melbourne. It is notable that Western Sydney MP’s such as Chris Bowen and Michelle Rowland want to party to be more respectful to Conservative Christians.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/10/23/scott-morrison-links-qanon-conspiracy/h

    Catching up on PB late today. Thanks very much for your comment. It accords with my vicarious (inlaws and even friends) experience with (White?) Pentecostal Christianity in the 1980s and 1990s.

    I have never know a serious Australian Pentecostal who does not NOT believe in young Earth creationism, and the Rapture. I do not see why Scott Morrison should be different.

    I am glad the New Daily’s Michael Pascoe has called this out. the rest of the media seem frightened to touch it.

    However, if Morrison is a young Earth Creationist, he believes that the Earth is around 6000 years old, and rejects all science, because this totally contradicts his point of view.

    As a believer in the Rapture, he will be a pre-millennialist, meaning that he believes that the righteous (him and his ilk) will be “assumed” into bodily, while the rest of us will burn for 1000 years on the Earth.

    There is no place in this world view for science or reason, and our current Federal Government is an excellent example of this thought mode.

    Also, the Pentecostal movement does have a black US wing, and a left wing, so perhaps Assemblies go God (AoG) Pentecostal would be a better description for the Hillsong and their devil’s spawn ilk?

  13. AR

    From an Australian point of view I agree. However quite a few Labour members voted for the Johnson Brexit.

    Corbyn is doing the right thing. Hard as that is to fathom from here.

    Anyway that’s the last I am posting about this as William has a thread for Brexit.

  16. Has anyone ever made the recommendation to the AEC that on the Saturday while voting is occurring that all the Pre-poll and postal votes (received to date) get counted in a secure facility and then get loaded immediately polls close at 6 pm?

  17. I have a sister who is a Happy Clapper in a big Church – very big. I have no idea on her theological or geological views but I do know that there is no way many in her Church are voting for the heathen ALP or Greens.

  18. The proposed parliamentary sitting calendar for 2020. Is it just me, or is this a heavier schedule (such that it is) on this year or even last year?

    :large

  19. Bucephalus says:
    Thursday, October 24, 2019 at 8:01 pm
    I have a sister who is a Happy Clapper in a big Church – very big. I have no idea on her theological or geological views but I do know that there is no way many in her Church are voting for the heathen ALP or Greens.

    That’s quite understandable. It is the same as with the Evangelicals in the US (mostly in non-mainstream mega churches) who will vote for Trump come hell or high water.

  21. A quick update on our neighbour, Louise.

    She was the lady who, five months ago, stubbed her little toe on the corner of her bed.

    After her GP keeping her on antibiotics for 2 months, she finally saw another doctor who had her admitted to hospital immediately, with surgery following within 24 hours. Unfortunately her toe had to be partially amputated as gangrene had set in. It had gone black.

    After a month of moderately satisfactory “recovery”, her foot, alas, began to swell and turn blue.

    We now know she had developed a blocked artery behind her knee due to following Doctor’s advice to keep her foot immobile and elevated as much as possible. By the time she was rushed to surgery she had only 10% of normal circulation below the knee. “Doctor” didn’t think any of this was urgent. He doesn’t get what everyone is panicking about.

    Louise has been in ICU now for a week and has had three surgeries, each one more serious than the last, plus excruciatingly painful dressing changes four times a day . It is now a matter of saving her leg. All that medical staff will tell us is that she is “stable”. Promises of future good health are no longer being offered. Her family and friends are in attendance, at her bedside.

    Ladies and gentlemen, I present for your assessment the NSW regional medical health services, in all their Hippocratic glory.

  24. The allegedly forged documents connected to Angus Taylor are the work of an amateur compared with this:

    High-end restaurant group Rockpool is accused of tampering with time-sheet records so workers who worked up to 100 hours a week looked like they only worked 38.

    The “egregious” scheme was allegedly designed to cheat them of overtime pay.

    The Hospo Voice Union has hired Maurice Blackburn Lawyers to lodge a complaint against Rockpool with the Fair Work Ombudsman, with the matter to go to mediation on Friday.

    The group is accused of tampering with time-sheet software to limit employees to 38 hours’ pay a week, despite the use of fingerprint scanners for staff clocking on and off and having some work up to 100 hours a week.

    Maurice Blackburn estimates the stolen wages total at least $10m in what the law firm calls “one of the most egregious cases of wage theft Australia has seen yet”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/24/rockpool-accused-of-tampering-with-time-sheet-records-to-workers-of-10m

  28. Ladies and gentlemen, I present for your assessment the NSW regional medical health services, in all their Hippocratic glory.

    I’d be surprised if her experiences weren’t representative of regional and rural health services more broadly. When I lived in Darwin we had a saying for health issues: ‘When in pain, get on a plane.’

  29. Tom Watson has been an extremely disloyal deputy leader of the UK Labour Party. The whole point of the role is to fill in for the leader on occasion and to provide advice and support. Any disagreements are to be expressed in private. A deputy who finds that they cannot publicly support the leader’s choices has only one conscientious option: to resign the post. Tom Watson did not do that. He believes that he is entitled to serve as deputy while publicly criticising the leader’s decisions. Tom Watson displays the overweening sense of entitlement and lack of integrity that define his centrist brethren.

  31. “Sorry. Got that wrong. Labor will refer Taylor to the NSW police within 24 hours if Morrison does not do so first.”

    Glad you got that wrong BW. If they referred him to the AFP he’d be well safe.

  32. Senator Stewart’s mathematical incompetence has just wasted 20 minutes of a Senate hearing which should be investigating RoboDebt.

  33. Boerwar:

    It would appear to be so if Mark Butler is right.

    “The NSW Crimes Act provides that the making of a forged document that is intended to influence the exercise of a public duty by a publicly elected official like the lord mayor of Sydney is an indictable offence punishable by up to 10 years imprisonment,” Butler told reporters.

    “It is also clear that the NSW Crimes Act provides that a failure to make a report about such a document to the police is also a criminal offence punishable by up to two years imprisonment after the person becomes aware of the forgery.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/24/labor-to-refer-angus-taylor-to-police-over-forged-document-used-to-attack-clover-moore

  34. “He has also mastered ScoMo’s talent for drawing breath through his ears while continuing to bullshit.”

    Circular breathing, as practiced by didgeridoo players. It seems to be a mandatory requirement to be mastered by Liberal candidates and IPA spokespeopke.

  35. Senator Malarndirri McCarthy and Senator Kimberly Kitching have taken over the Robodebt questioning, raising the forensics from the failed and fruitless kindergarten mathematics of Siewart.

  38. Nicholas

    Yeah, yeah. The Ultras got Labor to shilly shally on Brexit. No more workers of the world unite for them. EU multilateralism was interfering with the Program. The last General Election was followed by ideological cleansing of the non zealots. Long serving Labour MPs have been torn from the Labour womb. Tom Watson may well be the last sane person in the upper echelons of British Labor. Naturally he is a class traitor who must be wiped out.

    The British voters will do what the zealonts have not quite finished: gut the British Labor Party. Rump Labor will face yet another five years in opposition, gormless Corbyn will finally get the heave ho, and the ultra progressive Labor Party will be exactly like the Australian Greens: ideologically pure, politically powerless, and policy pathetic.

    Meanwhile, freed from the constraints of multilateralism with the help the Momentum and the Ultras, the Tories are going to do what the Tories have been threatening to do all along: trade away residual workers’ rights, social spending, and environmental protections.

    This mirrors the environmental and social achievements of 30 years of Greens posturing in Australia. An utterly cynical and unachievable Zero/2030, rising extinction rates, and rising emissions.

    As we all know there is zero reflection among the ideologues: a reduction in $75 billion in exports, a Light Mobile Force and Zero/2030. What could possibly go right?

  40. ‘imacca says:
    Thursday, October 24, 2019 at 8:44 pm

    “Sorry. Got that wrong. Labor will refer Taylor to the NSW police within 24 hours if Morrison does not do so first.”

    Glad you got that wrong BW. If they referred him to the AFP he’d be well safe.’

    haha. One mother did ‘ave me.

  42. Laws are for bad people. You know, climate protestors, unions, indigenous people, whistleblowers, investigative journos, lefties….
    Good people like farmers, LNP pollies and donors, RW media, businesses who rip off workers… laws aren’t intended for them, Shirley.

  43. I still have an image of Louise in my head, as she stood in our driveway in early April, a dog lead in her hand, with empty collar still attached, crying like a baby. She had just had her dog – a beautiful, young Bull Arab bitch – put down due to inbred insanity.

    Lou has had a rotten year. She didn’t deserve it. Not any of it.

  49. Kitching now probing on how many Robodebts were issued to dead people, and finds 73 dead people’s estates had to cough up the debt.

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