Call of the board: South Australia

Yet more intricate detail on the May federal election result – this time from South Australia, where normality was restored after the Nick Xenophon interruption of 2016.

Welcome to another instalment of the now nearly complete Call of the Board series, a seat-by-seat review of the result of the May federal election. Now is the turn of South Australia, previous instalments having dealt with Sydney (here and here), regional New South Wales, Melbourne, regional Victoria, south-east Queensland, regional Queensland and Western Australia.

So far as the two-party swing was concerned, South Australia was largely a microcosm of the national result, with the Coalition picking up a swing of 1.6% (compared with 1.2% nationally) and no seats changing hands. Similarly, Labor did particularly badly in the regions, suffering big swings in Barker and Grey, compared with a highly consistent pattern of small swings in the metropolitan area. Labor won the statewide two-party preferred vote, as they have done at four out of the past five elections, albeit by a modest margin of 50.7-49.3.

As in previous recent instalments, I offer the following image with colour coding of swings at booth level. Compared with other metropolitan capitals, the divide between Labor swings in inner urban areas and Liberal swings further afield is somewhat less clear here, although the Labor swings are a fairly good proxy for general affluence. This would be even more apparent if the map extended further afield to encompass the Adelaide Hills areas covered by Mayo, where, as noted below, the tide seems to be running against the Liberals, and not just in comparison with Rebekha Sharkie.

On the primary vote, comparisons with 2016 are complicated by the Nick Xenophon factor. The Nick Xenophon Team scored 21.3% statewide in 2016, but its Centre Alliance successor fielded candidates only in the non-metropolitan seats of Mayo, Barker and Grey. Rebekha Sharkie was comfortably re-elected in Mayo, but the party’s vote was slashed in Barker and Grey. Primary votes elsewhere followed similar patterns – to save myself repetition in the seat-by-seat account below, the Xenophon absence left between 16.7% and 20.0% up for grabs in Kingston, Makin, Spence and Sturt, which resulted in primary vote gains of 5.1% to 6.2% for the Liberals, 5.2% to 6.6% for Labor and 2.6% to 3.9% for the Greens.

The other factor worth noting in preliminaries is a redistribution that resulted in the abolition of a seat, part of a trend that has reduced the state’s representation from 13 to 10 since 1990. This caused Port Adelaide to be rolled into Hindmarsh, creating one safe Labor seat out of what were formerly one safe Labor and one marginal seat. The eastern parts of Port Adelaide and Hindmarsh were transferred to Adelaide, setting the seal on a seat that has grown increasingly strong for Labor since the Howard years, while the Glenelg end of Hindmarsh went to Boothby, without changing its complexion as a marginal Liberal seat.

The table below compares two-party results with corresponding totals I have derived from Senate ballot papers, the idea being that this gives some sort of idea as to how results may have been affected by candidate and incumbency factors (two-party results for Labor are shown). This shows a clear pattern of Labor doing better in the House than the Senate in the seats than they hold, whereas there is little distinction in Liberal-held seats. My guess would be that there is a general tendency for Labor to score better in the House and the Senate overall, which is boosted further by sitting member effects in Labor-held seats, while being cancelled out by those in Liberal-held seats. Taking that into account, it would seem Labor’s sitting member advantages were relatively weak in Adelaide and Hindmarsh, which stands to reason given the disturbance of the redistribution.

On with the show:

Adelaide (Labor 8.2%; 0.1% swing to Liberal): The Liberal swing in this now safe Labor seat was below the statewide par despite the disappearance of Kate Ellis’s personal vote. In this it reflected the national inner urban trend, and also the long term form of a seat that has drifted from the Liberals’ reach since Ellis gained it in 2004. However, a divide was evident between a Liberal swing at the northern end and a Labor swing in the south, for reasons not immediately obvious. It may be thought to reflect the demographic character of the respective Enfield and Unley ends of the seat, but this doesn’t explain why the Liberals gained in Prospect immediatley north of the city, an area that would seem to refect the inner urban mould. Nor was there any particularly evident effect from the redistribution, which added to the west of the electorate parts of Hindmarsh, formerly held by Adelaide’s new member, Steve Georganas. The Centre Alliance registered a relatively weak 13.7% here in 2016 – the Greens did particularly well in their absence, lifting from 10.0% to 15.7%, although they are still a long way off being competitive.

Barker (Liberal 18.9%; 5.1% swing to Liberal): The Barossa Valley swung to Labor, but the rest of this seat followed the script of regional Australia in going strongly enough to the Liberals to substantially increase Tony Pasin’s already safe margin. A majority of the Centre Alliance collapse (from 27.6% to 2.9%) ended up with the Coalition, although the United Australia Party recorded an above average 5.9%, while the Labor primary vote made a weak gain of 4.7%.

Boothby (Liberal 1.4%; 1.3% swing to Labor): Labor once again failed to realise hopes of reeling in this southern Adelaide seat, despite it reflecting the national trend of affluent suburbia in recording a 1.3% Labor swing that overwhelmed whatever sophomore advantage may have accrued to Liberal member Nicolle Flint. The absence of the Centre Alliance left 18.5% of the vote up for grabs, and the Liberal, Labor and Greens primary votes were respectively up 3.5%, 7.7% and 3.8%.

Grey (Liberal 13.3%; 5.6% swing to Liberal): Another big regional swing to the Liberals, in this case to the advantage of Rowan Ramsey, who came within 2% of losing to the Nick Xenophon Team’s Andrea Broadfoot in 2016. Broadfoot ran again for the Centre Alliance this time and was down from 27.7% to 5.1%, of which a fair bit was accounted for by the entry of One Nation and the United Australia Party, a further fair bit went to the Liberals, while the Labor primary vote hardly budged.

Hindmarsh (Labor 6.5%; 1.9% swing to Liberal): The Liberals recorded a swing perfectly in line with the statewide result in a seat that is effectively a merger of the safe Labor seat of Port Adelaide, whose member Mark Butler now takes the reins in Hindmarsh, and what was previously the highly marginal seat of Hindmarsh, which extended into more Liberal-friendly territory further to the south. The income effect took on a very particular manifestation here in that the booths along the coast swung to Labor while those further inland tended to go the other way. With the Nick Xenophon Team taking its 17.0% vote into retirement, each of the main parties made roughly comparable gains on the primary vote.

Kingston (Labor 11.9%; 1.6% swing to Liberal): For the most part, this once marginal but now safe Labor seat followed the national outer urban trend in swinging to the Liberals, though not be nearly enough to cause serious concern for Labor member Amanda Rishworth. However, separate consideration is demanded of the northern end of the electorate, which is notably more affluent, particularly in comparison with the central part around Morphett Vale. This northern end consists of two parts separated by the Happy Valley Reservoir — the coast at Hallett Cove, and Flagstaff Hill further inland, the latter gained in the redistribution. For whatever reason, the former area behaved as did the rest of the electorate, whereas the latter swung to Labor.

Makin (Labor 9.7%; 1.1% swing to Liberal): So far as the electorate in aggregate is concerned, everything just noted about Kingston equally applies to Makin, which remains secure for Labor member Tony Zappia. There was perhaps a slight tendency for the more affluent parts of the electorate (in the north-east around Golden Grove) to do better for Labor than the low income parts, but not much.

Mayo (Centre Alliance 5.1%; 2.2% swing to Centre Alliance): As the Nick Xenophon/Centre Alliance vote tanked elsewhere, Rebekha Sharkie had no trouble repeating her feat of the 2016 election, when she unseated Liberal member Jamie Briggs, and the July 2018 Section 44 by-election, when she accounted for the now twice-unsuccessful Liberal candidate, Georgina Downer. Downer trod water on the primary vote this time, but nonetheless won the primary vote as Labor recovered market share from Sharkie after a particularly poor showing at the by-election. Sharkie’s winning margin of 5.1% was slightly down on her 7.5% by-election win. The Sharkie factor obscured what may be an ongoing trend to Labor in the seat, with Downer winning the Liberal-versus-Labor vote by a very modest 2.5%. This partly reflected a 2% shift in the redistribution, but there was also a 0.7% swing to Labor that bucked the statewide trend.

Spence (Labor 14.1%; 3.0% swing to Liberal): As well as changing its name from Wakefield, the redistribution removed the rural territory that formerly leavened the Labor margin in a seat that now encompasses Adelaide’s low-rent north, up to and including Gawler. For those with a long enough memory, it more resembles the long lost seat of Bonython, a Labor stronghold through a history from 1955 to 2004, than Wakefield, which was a safe Liberal seat until Bonython’s abolition drew it into the suburbs. Consistent with the national trend of low-income and outer urban seats, Labor member Nick Champion emerged with a dent in his still considerable margin.

Sturt (Liberal 6.9%; 1.5% swing to Liberal): In the seat vacated upon Christopher Pyne’s retirement, swing results neatly reflected the distribution of income, favouring Labor at the northern end and Liberal in the south. Whatever the impact of the loss of Pyne’s personal vote, it didn’t stop Liberal debutante James Stevens scoring a primary vote majority and 1.5% two-party swing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

498 comments on “Call of the board: South Australia”

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  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It’s Sparse Sunday!

    The SMH editorial paints a gloomy economic picture for NSW (which is not alone).
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-families-will-feel-the-pinch-at-christmas-20191122-p53daq.html
    Centrism is a dead weight in Australian politics – and it’s dragging us all down opines Greg Jericho.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/24/centrism-is-a-dead-weight-in-australian-politics-and-its-dragging-us-all-down
    Australia has a long history of imitating American culture, but our mirroring of U.S. politics is bringing the nation down, writes Peter Henning.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-americanisation-of-australian-political-culture,13343
    Aussie Home Loans has been naughty and has been referred to ASIC.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/aussie-home-loans-is-misleading-customers-complaint-to-asic-alleges-20191123-p53dd2.html
    Dana McCauley reports that retail and fast food workers are preparing a dossier detailing more than $1 billion worth of wages and entitlements traded away by the “shoppies” union, but fear a Senate inquiry into wage theft will gloss over the “cosy” employer deals.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/wage-theft-inquiry-must-probe-union-deals-retail-workers-warn-20191121-p53cqa.html
    Sacha Baron Cohen gave a tremendous speech on the role of social media and where world politics are heading.
    https://www.smh.com.au/technology/sacha-baron-cohen-slams-facebook-for-allowing-hate-speech-20191123-p53dgp.html
    The video can be found here in this report.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2019/11/23/facebook-sacha-baron-cohen/
    The judgment in Sarah Hanson-Young’s defamation case against David Leyonhjelm will be handed down tomorrow, more than a year after the Greens senator sued after a parliamentary debate in which he said she should “stop shagging men”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/24/sarah-hanson-young-defamation-case-against-david-leyonhjelm-to-be-decided
    Another entertaining Peter FitzSimons weekend column.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/friends-in-high-places-can-t-deny-a-win-for-the-people-20191122-p53d4e.html
    The Guardian has a look at what Porter’s new defamation laws might mean for reporting.
    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2019/nov/24/australias-unworkable-defamation-laws-what-the-governments-changes-could-mean
    “Suicidal thinking does not occur when people are in a normal and mentally healthy state. It comes about through the cumulative effect of a number of risk factors, especially when key protective factors – such as social support – are missing”, writes Patrick McGorry.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/ending-suicide-means-understanding-complex-pathways-that-lead-to-it-20191121-p53cs5.html
    Katie Burgess says that advocates for asylum seekers are apprehensive, as the fate of the controversial Medevac legislation looks set to be determined this week.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505825/if-medevac-fails-well-fall-into-a-heap/?cs=14329
    This South African tells us why she’s addicted to the Trump impeachment hearings.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/23/addicted-to-impeachment-hearings-not-american

    Cartoon Corner

    From Matt Golding


    Jn the bush with Zanetti.

    Jon Kudelka lines up the hopeless Stuart Robert.

    David Rowe and Westpac’s dirty washing.

    From the US.






  2. Twice recently I have heard someone say wtte “then the earth tilted and the hot weather slipped away to the side.” Is this some mad new theory that I’ve missed?

  3. Good Morning all and BK. Hope all is as well as can be down BK way.

    To add, here’s some under rock looking and finger pointing by the ABC .

    Enter The Quiet Assassin
    Andrew Robb blows up bipartisanship. Andrew Robb blows up the country.

    “It’s unbelievable how you can have a country with such cheap solar power, such cheap wind power, frankly such cheap natural gas and yet you still have expensive power and an unreliable grid,” he told ABC’s AM.

    “I mean, how do you do that? It’s a government failure.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-24/10-years-of-climate-change-inertiaand-the-role-of-andrew-robb/11726072

  4. Morning BK, and thank you.
    It must be reassuring that SA behaved itself more or less as if it were part of Australia in the polling outcomes of the last Fed election.
    The regions ran amok for the Coalition, the Outer Urbs the same, but not so much.

  5. Is this the same Mr Robb drag himself in from his mental health leave sickbed to wreck the joint?

    Is this is the same Mr Robb who opened Australia up further to China’s economic domination including subjecting Australia’ labour market to imported Chinese labour?

    Is this the same Mr Robb got a very nice little earner in the China trade domain immediately after his resignation as Minister?

    Is this the same Mr Robb who treacherously stabbed Mr Turnbull in the back?

    Australian of The Year material?

  6. Andrew Robb was an inspiration to all those involved in wage negotiations. An $800,000 pa contract and technically he did not actually have to do anything to be paid the $800,000. How Good Is That ! Oh where was Andrew when the SDA were ( cough) negotiating.

  7. lizzie

    I googled it for you, and came up with this —

    ‘Earth’s tilted axis causes the seasons. Throughout the year, different parts of Earth receive the Sun’s most direct rays. So, when the North Pole tilts toward the Sun, it’s summer in the Northern Hemisphere. And when the South Pole tilts toward the Sun, it’s winter in the Northern Hemisphere.’

    ‘But what caused Earth to tilt?
    Long, long ago, when Earth was young, it is thought that something big hit Earth and knocked it off-kilter. So instead of rotating with its axis straight up and down, it leans over a bit.’

    https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/seasons/en/

    Are the people using the phrase mixing up what causes the earth to have seasons with climate change?

  8. Boerwar

    Funnily enough, it’s Ms Crabb who is belling the cat today.

    Ten years ago today, Andrew Robb arrived at Parliament House intent upon an act of treachery.

    No-one was expecting him. Robb was formally on leave from the Parliament undergoing treatment for his severe depression.

    But the plan the Liberal MP nursed to himself that morning would not only bring about the political demise of his leader, Malcolm Turnbull, but blow apart Australia’s two great parties irrevocably just as they teetered toward consensus on climate change, the most divisive issue of the Australian political century.

    They have never again been so close.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-24/10-years-of-climate-change-inertiaand-the-role-of-andrew-robb/11726072

    I know one shouldn’t judge people on their looks, but in Robb’s case, that turned down mouth …

  9. Latest UK polling show the folly of Labour leading with Corbyn. Let’s hope the US Democratic Party does not follow suit and choose a polarising far left candidate.

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 41% (+4)
    LAB: 28% (-1)
    LDEM: 18% (+2)
    GRN: 5% (-)
    BREX: 3% (-6)

    via @BMGResearch, 19 – 21 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 15 Nov

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 47% (+3)
    LAB: 28% (-)
    LDEM: 12% (-2)
    BREX: 3% (-3)

    via @OpiniumResearch
    Chgs. w/ 15 Nov

  10. zoomster

    Oh, well done. I’d forgotten the seasonal connection. But yes, I think they must be confusing the big seasonal changes with local weather. Perhaps Malcolm Roberts has been publishing his wisdom somewhere!

  11. Dana McCauley reports that retail and fast food workers are preparing a dossier detailing more than $1 billion worth of wages and entitlements traded away by the “shoppies” union, but fear a Senate inquiry into wage theft will gloss over the “cosy” employer deals.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/wage-theft-inquiry-must-probe-union-deals-retail-workers-warn-20191121-p53cqa.html

    Okay, let the evidence be tested. Though I doubt the RFFWA representatives here and other assorted Greens, who seem to be giving the RFFWA aid and comfort, will allow the day to go to waste and will attempt to spread all manner of merde about the SDA across the blog.

    I read the article with an objective eye and it just seems like Josh Cullinan grandstanding and assertion. And attempted empire-building. Though I strongly doubt he would be able to negotiate with the large employers any better deal than the SDA, and likely a worse one.

    I also imagine that the Greenies will bring up how much the SDA has donated to the Labor Party. So what?

    Anyway, I’m with Senator Alex Gallacher:

    Labor senator Alex Gallacher, who chairs the Senate committee behind the inquiry, said there was “no intention to rule anybody in or out” and that any submission that “makes sense” would be included, with its authors to be called as witnesses and their evidence tested.

    “The SDA won’t have any sway over me,” Senator Gallacher said.

    No doubt this will get a run:

    While technically legal, the exposure of the unfavourable SDA deals led to retailers having to renegotiate enterprise agreements, lifting wages by as much as 20 per cent or $150 a week.

    Under one such deal, Coles was found by the Fair Work Commission to have “significantly” underpaid 77,000 workers, including tens of thousands paid penalty rates lower than the workplace award – the basic wages safety net.

    And I remember at the time it was exposed I said that it was wrong to pay night fill workers at day workers’ rates. They should have been paid penalty rates.

    Anyway, let’s see where the evidence, as opposed to the rhetoric, takes us, shall we?

  12. zoomster
    says:
    Long, long ago, when Earth was young, it is thought that something big hit Earth and knocked it off-kilter. So instead of rotating with its axis straight up and down, it leans over a bit.’
    _____________________________
    that was 4 billion years ago when the Earth was hit by a Mars sized planet (Theia), merging the two into the current Earth and creating a debris ring which coalesced into The Moon.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Origin_of_the_Moon

  13. spr
    It is not not just Corbyn, I’m afraid.
    The far left has gained utter dominance in the Labor Party.
    Labour centrists are being progressively (sic) forced out by one means or another. Perfectly decent committed Labour people are no longer welcome.
    Then there is the ongoing issues with anti-semitism.
    If two sitting Australian Labor MPs resigned from the Party because of anti-semitism there would be a national uproar.
    In Britain Labour supporters are being urged to believe that the MPs resigned as some sort of anti-Corbyn conspiracy.
    There is a systemic message for all political parties here. Direct ballot for party leadership opens the gates for dedicated fanatics to skew outcomes away from the centre towards the extremes.

  14. Imagine the frothing of the mouth by some here if a Labor pollie had behaved as Robb did, particularly over the trade deal. As for the media, contrast the treatment of Dastyari, for example.

  15. zoomster

    I’m personally still frothing at Robb’s perfidy. I think sometimes we forget to blame the media (ie Rupert) and try to pin down some poor ineffective pollie.

  16. Don’t forget the cynical perfidy of The Greens:

    The concept of an emissions trading scheme was — nominally at least — bipartisan policy at the time.

    John Howard campaigned promising an ETS in 2007, and so did Kevin Rudd. The Greens were ferociously in favour.

    But the detail of Rudd’s plan created difficulties. The Greens wouldn’t have a bar of what the Rudd government bowled up.

    Even 10 years later, Rudd can still remember the tick-tock of the CPRS in pellucid detail.

    …”They wanted 40 per cent, which would have put us far and away above any other country in the developed world,” Rudd says of the Greens.

    “There was no scientific justification for a 40 per cent cut. They just knew it was 15-20 per cent higher than anyone else was prepared to offer. They designed it in a manner to cause the negotiations to fail. The negotiations with them were a bullshit exercise.

    “And so we had to go to Plan B which was to negotiate with the Liberals.”

    Uh huh.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-24/10-years-of-climate-change-inertiaand-the-role-of-andrew-robb/11726072

  17. The signs on toilet doors are so much more important than homelessness.

    Some of the most senior bureaucrats in the government scrambled to act on Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s demand for gender neutral bathrooms to be removed from his department.

    Internal emails obtained under freedom of information laws – but heavily redacted – reveal deputy and assistant secretaries worked into the night after Mr Morrison seized on a tweet by a high-profile journalist and insisted the “ridiculous” bathroom signs be taken down.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-ve-cleared-my-diary-senior-bureaucrats-scrambled-to-act-on-pm-s-toilet-door-demands-20191122-p53d1y.html

  18. C@

    Also, don’t forget, that when the Liberals reneged on the CPRS deal, it was the first time in Australian history that an Opposition had failed to support a policy which BOTH parties had taken to an election campaign.

    And yet, now all we hear from them (and the media) are calls for bi partisanship on every issue, with the implication that Labor should just fall in line and do whatever it is the government wants.

    (Similarly, I snort in my coffee when some Republican gets up and asks why the Democrats don’t just leave Trump alone — as if they would have let Hillary just get on with the job…)

  19. Q and A

    JJ @playswithf1re
    ·
    Nov 22
    How did Frydenberg become a bank executive before he was 30?

    E P Conrad @altimetr
    He was only in the position for a year between political roles. The Banks basically “warehouse” Liberal Party apparatchiks between political gigs… You can see the quality when you look a Berejiklian’s maladministration of NSW… Only an ex- banker could be so bad.

  20. C@tmomma @ #20 Sunday, November 24th, 2019 – 4:48 am

    Don’t forget the cynical perfidy of The Greens:

    The concept of an emissions trading scheme was — nominally at least — bipartisan policy at the time.

    John Howard campaigned promising an ETS in 2007, and so did Kevin Rudd. The Greens were ferociously in favour.

    But the detail of Rudd’s plan created difficulties. The Greens wouldn’t have a bar of what the Rudd government bowled up.

    Even 10 years later, Rudd can still remember the tick-tock of the CPRS in pellucid detail.

    …”They wanted 40 per cent, which would have put us far and away above any other country in the developed world,” Rudd says of the Greens.

    “There was no scientific justification for a 40 per cent cut. They just knew it was 15-20 per cent higher than anyone else was prepared to offer. They designed it in a manner to cause the negotiations to fail. The negotiations with them were a bullshit exercise.

    “And so we had to go to Plan B which was to negotiate with the Liberals.”

    Uh huh.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-24/10-years-of-climate-change-inertiaand-the-role-of-andrew-robb/11726072

    And yet (from the same article):

    Rudd believes that the CPRS — if legislated — would have stuck.

    “Had the Greens and the others acted responsibly, we’d be 10 years into an adjustable carbon price which would have brought about the transition away from coal,” he says.

    Turnbull, too, has assured associates that if legislated, the CPRS would have become “part of the fiscal furniture, like the GST”.

    Bollocks. Turnbull would still have been rolled by Abbott, and upon gaining access to the Treasury benches in 2013, knocked the CPRS on the head. Which would leave us in the same position we are today.

  21. C@tmomma
    says:
    hough I strongly doubt he would be able to negotiate with the large employers any better deal than the SDA, and likely a worse one.
    _________________________
    The workers are better off just being under the award rather than the EBA the SDA signed them up to. You have a sordid history of defending the SDA on here and now your chickens are coming home to roost.

  22. Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.

    David Rowe’s characters are such an ugly looking lot. Those depicted must think the cartoons are mirrors.

    We’ve had a little rain in Newcastle. About 1 mm.
    Current temperature 19℃ Expected top 23℃
    Scattered thunderstorms. Chance rain 40%

  23. We haven’t actually had 10 years of climate inertia. For two years 2012-14, we had a plan in place that was working. It was torn down.

  24. For those who can’t get enough of Fran Kelly and Josh Frytheplanet (aka Josh Everywhere)..

    Coming up at 9am on #Insiders, @frankelly08 interviews Treasurer @JoshFrydenberg & @mpbowers talks pictures with @mrbenjaminlaw.

    On the couch are @lenoretaylor, @markgkenny and @annikasmethurst.

  25. Re criticism of the SDA agreements with employers, I can say:
    1. I personally have been through enterprise bargaining under current rules;
    2. The rules make the bargaining totally biased towards the employer;
    3. Strikes have their own set of rules, and are illegal except when organised in very precise way;
    4. Any other industrial action or boycott is probably going to be illegal;
    5. If talks stall for whatever reason there is a real risk the employer with deep pockets will run to the Fair Work ( is that a joke name?) Commission to have the current agreement erased, wiping out the clause that says it continues until a new one is ratified, rendering workers protected only by the laughably inadequate award conditions and pay.

    Sure, it’s easy to criticise “The Union”, as so many non-members do.
    I just walk away. I’ve got to work with these people, whose self-centred stupidity makes me want to vomit.

  26. Of course Rudd offers a totally unbiased opinion on how great his scheme would have been and how everyone else was to blame. But he didn’t have the fortitude to take the greatest moral challenge of our time to an election when the momentum was there.

  27. “We’ve had a little rain in Newcastle. About 1 mm.
    Current temperature 19℃ Expected top 23℃”/

    This weekend it’s my least favourite weather pattern – marine layer cloud – a common pattern in Sydney in Summer, a bit like California’s June Gloom / Bummer Summer but more persistent. We don’t tell the tourists about it: solid grey dome overcast, not a glimpse of sun; temperature stuck close to 20 degrees all day and all night; and apart from a bit of drizzle it won’t rain.

  28. Thank you, Maude Lynne. The real world just doesn’t intrude into some people’s politics. No doubt we’ll be seeing Josh Callinan running for The Greens somewhere in the near future and his so-called ‘union’ will fall into disrepair like an abandoned house.

  29. Insiders: This is the latest Liberal spin by ScoMo. (published first in The Australian, I believe)
    https://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2019/11/23/sensible-foundations-future-prosperity

    We can expect Josh to have rehearsed the “wisdom” spouted by his leader and repeat it endlessly in the interview. It has all the right components:
    *more jobs and a stronger economy — without the kneejerk fiscal responses that ­defined the Labor years
    *We’re getting people home sooner and safer with careful, considered investment that will not only boost jobs now but that will help the economy and the liveability of our regions and cities well into the future.
    *Our government is committed to dealing with challenges to the economy — like all issues — practically and soberly: with real and proper projects that have been carefully considered and carry long-term benefits. It’s the opposite of what we saw from Labor’s panic and crisis stimulus: cash splashes, overpriced school halls and the like.

    That’s right Josh. Now don’t forget to bring Labor into your responses.

  30. Fan Kelly interviews another Lieberal Minister, what a surprise. No doubt it will be all, ‘Jim Chalmers and Labor’, from here to breakfast time from Frydebudget. 🙄

  31. Australians want action on climate change as long as it costs them nothing. The Coalition has been using mixed messages (mixed lies) to convince some Australians that there isn’t a problem; others that there is a problem but they can fix it for free via token measures; and many that any effective plan is prohibitively expensive. Together these make up a majority.

  32. C@tmomma @ #27 Sunday, November 24th, 2019 – 5:05 am

    DP,
    Which doesn’t alter the cynical position The Greens took, one iota.

    It also doesn’t alter the fact that even if the Greens had voted for it, the Abbott led Coalition would’ve voted against it and we’d be exactly where we are now.

    At the time, Labor+Greens = not enough votes to pass the bill.

    Anti-Greens rants don’t change that one iota either. All it does is divert attention away from the real culprits, the Abbott led coalition.

  33. ML

    I didn’t make any comparison between Rudd and Gillard to rekindle any RGR flame war. If Labor goes all “don’t mention the war” it will never learn the lessons of its history.
    Btw, I have a similar reaction to all Mal the magnificant’s belated tales of how great he could have been if not for the disloyal spoilers and deniers in his party.

  34. ‘At the time, Labor+Greens = not enough votes to pass the bill.’

    Labor + Greens + 2 Liberal Senators (who did vote for the bill) = the bill passing.

    As it would have passed both the HoR and the Senate, it would have been L.A.W.

    Oh, that’s right – somehow the Greens psychically knew that if they voted for it the Liberals wouldn’t have, based on no evidence whatsoever.

  35. DP,
    I don’t agree, as you would expect. 🙂 Sometimes it’s good to point out that The Greens can be every bit as cynical politically as ‘the duopoly’. In fact, even that term, ‘the duopoly’, is a cynical bit of political marketing by The Greens.

    Whose representatives here still haven’t told us about ANY of the enlightened policies they voted for at their national conference last weekend. 😐

  36. We are seeing signs of this here. Expertise is shafted in favour of jobs for the boys and rewarding inexperienced sycophants. Public servants (even career public servants) are increasingly viewed as unelected bureaucrats secretly working against the coalition govt.

    Dozens of hours of impeachment testimony over the last two months have revealed the true import of Trump’s boast. When he first took office, most assumed the new president would adapt, perhaps against his will, to the ways of Washington, its bureaucratic processes and legions of subject matter experts.

    Instead the president has turned the U.S. government into a version of the Trump Organization, full of wheeler dealers inside and outside the official ranks who exist to do his political bidding. In this version of Trump’s Washington, the rogue actors are the real players and the traditional, professional class in the National Security Council, the State Department and the Pentagon are largely irrelevant.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/in-trumps-washington-the-rogue-actors-are-the-real-players–and-the-experts-are-increasingly-irrelevant/2019/11/23/2d88edca-0d48-11ea-97ac-a7ccc8dd1ebc_story.html

  37. It’s time,

    You are raising a nine-year old issue which has been debated to death.
    No good will come of raising it again.
    Move on.

  38. zoomster @ #44 Sunday, November 24th, 2019 – 5:36 am

    ‘At the time, Labor+Greens = not enough votes to pass the bill.’

    Labor + Greens + 2 Liberal Senators (who did vote for the bill) = the bill passing.

    As it would have passed both the HoR and the Senate, it would have been L.A.W.

    Oh, that’s right – somehow the Greens psychically knew that if they voted for it the Liberals wouldn’t have, based on no evidence whatsoever.

    Right. So you’re claiming that Abbott would’ve allowed those 2 senators to cross the floor to pass the bill. You seem to have a better view of Abbott’s character than I ever will.

    In the end we’ll never know for sure if Abbott would’ve allowed them to cross the floor or not, however if it was a bet, I doubt even Bucephalus would put any money on Abbott allowing it.

  39. And mercifully impeachment has caused attention to shift away from The Squad. Hopefully this lasts through until the election, as they are a vote killer for Democrats in swing states. Although I’m not holding my breath. Once the inquiry finishes and Trump is acquitted the focus will be back on Dems once again.

    For almost four months, House Democrats have enjoyed something that once seemed unattainable: relative calm inside their caucus.

    Democrats have tamped down the internal friction that dominated the spring and summer, creating divisions along ideological and generational lines, as they instead focus on the far more consequential battle of trying to impeach President Trump.

    The self-proclaimed “Squad” — the four young, first-term liberal congresswomen who clashed earlier in the year with fellow freshmen from swing districts — has drifted into the background with so much attention now focused on the House Intelligence Committee’s impeachment inquiry.

    None of the more than 60 freshman Democrats sits on that key panel, which has given the newcomers a chance to learn the ropes without the kleig lights of cable news chasing them every which way.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/house-democratic-infighting-subsides-as-party-focuses-on-push-to-impeach-trump/2019/11/22/e187f902-0d5b-11ea-bd9d-c628fd48b3a0_story.html

  40. The Australian version of this cartoon would depict the various leaders of the two party establishment using a lump of coal as a pillow as news of yet another tragic bushfire is broadcast over the radio.

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