Poll respondents with attitudes

New poll results from around the place on attitudes towards climate change, Australia Day and things-in-general.

An off week in the fortnightly cycles for both Newspoll and Essential Research, but we do have three fairly detailed sets of attitudinal polling doing the rounds:

• Ipsos has results from its monthly Issues Monitor series, which records a dramatic escalation in concern about the environment. Asked to pick the three most salient out of 19 listed issues, 41% chose the environment, more than any other. This was up ten on last month’s survey, and compares with single digit results that were not uncommonly recorded as recently as 2015. Cost of living and health care tied for second on 31%, respectively down three and up six on last month. The economy was up one to 25%, and crime down one to 21%. On “party most capable to manage environmental issues across the generations”, generations up to and including X gave the highest rating to the Greens, towards whom the “boomer” and “builder” generations showed their usual hostility. The poll was conducted online from a sample of 1000.

• A poll by YouGov for the Australian Institute finds 79% expressing concern about climate change, up five since a similar poll in July. This includes 47% who were very concerned, up ten. Among those aged 18 to 34, only around 10% expressed a lack of concern. Fifty-seven per cent said Australia was experiencing “a lot” of climate change impact, up 14%; 67% said climate change was making bushfires worse, with 26% disagreeing; and only 33% felt the Coalition had done a good job “managing the climate crisis” (a potentially problematic turn of phrase for those who did not allow that there was one), compared with 53% who took the contrary view. The poll was conducted January 8 to 12 from a sample of 1200; considerable further detail is available through the full report.

• The Institute of Public Affairs has a poll on Australia Day and political correctness from Dynata, which has also done polling on the other side of the ideological aisle for the aforesaid Australia Institute. This finds 71% agreeing that “Australia Day should be celebrated on January 26” (55% strongly, 16% somewhat), and 68% agreeing Australia had become too politically correct (42% strongly, 26% somewhat). Disagreement with both propositions was at just 11%. A very substantial age effect was evident here, but not for the two further questions relating to pride in Australia, which received enthusiastic responses across the board. I have my doubts about opening the batting on this particular set of questions by asking if respondents were “proud to be an Australian”, which brings Yes Minister to mind. Perhaps the most interesting thing about the poll is the demographic detail on the respondents, who were presumably drawn from an online panel. This shows women were greatly over-represented in the younger cohorts, while the opposite was true among the old; and that the sample included rather too many middle-aged people on low incomes. The results would have been weighted to correct for this, but some of these weightings were doing some fairly heavy lifting (so to speak).

Elsewhere, if you’re a Crikey subscriber you can enjoy my searing expose on the electoral impact of Bridget McKenzie’s sports sports. I particularly hope you appreciate the following line, as it was the fruit of about two days’ work:

When polling booth and sport grants data are aggregated into 2288 local regions designated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, there turns out to be no correlation whatsoever between the amount of funding they received and how much they swung to or against the Coalition.

I worked this out by identifying the approximate target locations of 518 grants, building a dataset recording grant funding and booth-level election swings for each of the ABS’s Statistical Local Area 2 regions, and using linear regression to calculate how much impact the grants had on the Coalition vote. The verdict: absolutely none whatsoever.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,074 comments on “Poll respondents with attitudes”

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  1. There is a great quote in Whitlam’s “the impotent are pure” speech…

    We cannot convincingly oppose the conservatism of our political opponents with a conservatism of our own.

  2. Re the Canberra bushfire mentioned earlier. I drove past the airport a bit before 6pm and could see a lot of smoke just to the east of the airport. Local radio stations were broadcasting warnings to people in part of Queanbeyan and Oaks Estate (an old village in ACT but adjacent to Qbn) to evacuate as the fire was then out of control and headed east towards them. Latest advice from the ACT ESA is that the fire is becoming under control but forecast strong NW winds tomorrow could be troublesome.

    Earlier in the afternoon ABC radio played a media conference with the ACT Chief minister and head of the ESA. Just then I thought that so many ACT people would be feeling part of a community that had endured weeks of smoke pollution and experienced the drastic hail storm on Monday. And this is only part of the wider community that has experienced the bushfire horrors over such a wide area. So many Australians have been affected by these events plus the drought, dust storms, no available water and whatever else.

    Despite political differences, the NSW and Victorian Premiers have demonstrated they are part of this community, along with the respective emergency services organisations. In fact the only people who do not appear to be part of this community are Morrison and most of the LNP, Murdoch mouthpieces and the other usual suspects. Morrison is quickly reaching a position where the “quiet Australians” have awoken to realise he is a BS artist pure and simple.

  3. zoomster says:
    Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 8:43 pm
    ___________________________

    You don’t need to be a party member to win the endorsement of that party in the US> The original claim from c@t was that Sanders had joined the democrats only when he ran for President.

    If you check the politifact web site – it seems pretty clear that Sanders has been of the Democrat Party since 1984 and he first ran for President in 2016.

  4. Lars

    He was still identifying as an independent WHILST he was running for President.

    The politifact web site states that he was still identifying as an independent in 2016. And as a Democrat.

    Straddling both sides of the fence scarcely screams commitment.

  5. zoomster
    says:
    Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 8:54 pm
    nath
    Indeed. But that’s nothing to do with the discussion at hand.
    ___________________________
    The ‘discussion’ at hand seemed to be about Sander’s credentials as a Democrat. There are many factions in the Democrats. I’m more interested in his credentials as a Progressive.

  6. Rakali

    poroti

    Of course Scotland has a secret weapon in the German establishment.

    Rudolph Hess flying to Scotland was all part of the German’s long game 🙂

  7. zoomster
    says:
    Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 8:57 pm
    Lars
    He was still identifying as an independent WHILST he was running for President.
    The politifact web site states that he was still identifying as an independent in 2016. And as a Democrat.
    Straddling both sides of the fence scarcely screams commitment.
    _____________________
    that is the thinking of a party hack. I’d much rather he had commitment to his ideals than to a party.

  8. If McKenzie is sacked why dont the others that backed or authorised her get sacked too.She will be just another scapegoat.The others all knew it was going on.

  9. nath

    Yes, but jumping on the wagon as a party man when it suits your convenience scarcely reeks integrity.

    Oh, sorry – I’m using words you don’t understand.

  10. zoomster says:
    Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 9:01 pm
    nath

    Yes, but jumping on the wagon as a party man when it suits your convenience scarcely reeks integrity.

    Oh, sorry – I’m using words you don’t understand.
    ______________________________
    Your feelings about nath are very strong!

  11. poroti

    Rudolph Hess flying to Scotland was all part of the German’s long game

    ——————

    It was a reverse Hess. David McAllister’s father flew to Germany!

  12. zoomster
    says:
    Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 9:01 pm
    nath
    Yes, but jumping on the wagon as a party man when it suits your convenience scarcely reeks integrity.
    ________________________________________
    I have no clue about Sander’s integrity. I’ve liked some of what I’ve heard, particularly about healthcare. Judging people’s integrity harshly by their failure to blindly follow a party is fairly ridiculous. Sanders may have no integrity, who knows, but I’m certain it has little to do with his history of party affiliation.

  13. Lars von Trier:

    “Life punishes those who come to late”

    Those who arrive late to your movies are blessed, rather than punished!

  14. A bit of redneck radio I heard today certainly has McKenzie in the firing line. One explanation is that so many of the sporting club volunteers she dudded would be RW voters of various stripes.

  15. poroti
    says:
    Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 9:04 pm
    nath
    Elizabeth Warren was a registered Republican until age 47. A Manchurian candidate ?
    _________________________
    lol. And the sainted Democrat Mayor of Chicago Richard Daley was an elected Republican in the 1930s.

  16. Also wasn’t Hilary Clinton President of a Young Republican group in College? Why yes she was.

    During her first year, she was president of the Wellesley Young Republicans. As the leader of this “Rockefeller Republican”-oriented group, she supported the elections of moderate Republicans John Lindsay to mayor of New York City and Massachusetts attorney general Edward Brooke to the United States Senate.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton

  17. E. G. Theodore says:
    Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 9:05 pm
    Lars von Trier:

    “Life punishes those who come to late”
    Those who arrive late to your movies are blessed, rather than punished!
    __________________________________________
    lol, thats below the belt.

  18. I know little about it but I understand that neither of the main US parties have any founding economic or other ideology apart, of course, Capitalism and Empire.

    Isn’t that right?

  19. Greensborough Growler says:
    Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 9:07 pm
    poroti @ #467 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2020 – 9:04 pm
    nath
    Elizabeth Warren was a registered Republican until age 47. A Manchurian candidate ?
    Pretty sure that Trump was a Democrat.

    I know less about US politics than many here. However I remember hearing years ago that the Republicans and Democrats each covered a wide spectrum of political beliefs. There would be areas of overlap e.g. some Southern Democrats would be more RW than some Republicans in the north.

  20. I’m not ‘abusing’ Sanders. I don’t have any particular feelings about him, one way or another.

    I’m correcting an error of fact.

    People are so partisan here that apparently you can’t do that without being accused of some thought crime or other.

  21. zoomster says:
    Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 9:27 pm
    I’m not ‘abusing’ Sanders. I don’t have any particular feelings about him, one way or another.

    I’m correcting an error of fact.

    People are so partisan here that apparently you can’t do that without being accused of some thought crime or other.
    ___________________
    Do you have feelings for nath?

  22. Believe it or not, I was just thinking this arvo that the ALP offering $1 million to a local rugby club in Melbourne would be the equivalent to the LNP offering money to a local AFL club in Sydney.

    Congratulations to the Pennant Hills AFL club on it grant of $500,000.

  23. In my previous comment, I should have read deeper into Jann Stuckey’s “health reasons”. Which are that “no other workplace would put up with the level of bullying, personal attacks and insults that take place in politics”.

  24. Boerwar @ #443 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2020 – 5:43 pm

    Scotty from marketing gave it a red hot go when he started talking about how the sports grants were all about changing sheds for girls.

    Why do they need changing sheds. My own observations on young girls in sports (based purely on my nephew having 3 young girls who are actively involved in various sports) is that they get into their uniforms/kit at home and travel to the event fully dressed ready to play. Looking back on my own youth, the same was/is true of the boys as well.

    The changing sheds is pure marketing bullshit.

  25. …of course, anyone bending over backwards to prove that Sanders has been a Democrat, like, forever, is demonstrating that they think there is something bad about him not being a Democrat to begin with…

  26. From Michael Pascoe
    ———
    Question for all ministers in every interview isn’t “When did you become aware sports grants were being electorally targeted?”
    It’s “Was anyone in Cabinet unaware that sports grants were being electorally targeted?”
    (Supplementary “Is the whole government corrupt?”)

  27. Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    1h1 hour ago
    The idea that the Department of PM&C can even be seen to conduct a politically independent inquiry into anything when it is headed up by a former political chief of staff, much less Scott Morrison’s own former CoS is surely out of the question right? Perception matters… #auspol

  28. zoomster says:
    Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 7:16 pm

    …”How would Morrison’s lack of morals be Labor’s fault??”…

    …………

    Much better question, how would Morrison’s lack of morals be Labor’s opportunity?

    Coincidentally, (or not) this is precisely what me ol’ mate Mundo was asking, you however, seem to have purposefully and deliberately misrepresented this fact.

  29. Danama Papers

    Is it a case of double corruption? You show them flooded with US money.

    Are you saying they are corrupt and bought by a foreign power?

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