An off week in the fortnightly cycles for both Newspoll and Essential Research, but we do have three fairly detailed sets of attitudinal polling doing the rounds:
• Ipsos has results from its monthly Issues Monitor series, which records a dramatic escalation in concern about the environment. Asked to pick the three most salient out of 19 listed issues, 41% chose the environment, more than any other. This was up ten on last month’s survey, and compares with single digit results that were not uncommonly recorded as recently as 2015. Cost of living and health care tied for second on 31%, respectively down three and up six on last month. The economy was up one to 25%, and crime down one to 21%. On “party most capable to manage environmental issues across the generations”, generations up to and including X gave the highest rating to the Greens, towards whom the “boomer” and “builder” generations showed their usual hostility. The poll was conducted online from a sample of 1000.
• A poll by YouGov for the Australian Institute finds 79% expressing concern about climate change, up five since a similar poll in July. This includes 47% who were very concerned, up ten. Among those aged 18 to 34, only around 10% expressed a lack of concern. Fifty-seven per cent said Australia was experiencing “a lot” of climate change impact, up 14%; 67% said climate change was making bushfires worse, with 26% disagreeing; and only 33% felt the Coalition had done a good job “managing the climate crisis” (a potentially problematic turn of phrase for those who did not allow that there was one), compared with 53% who took the contrary view. The poll was conducted January 8 to 12 from a sample of 1200; considerable further detail is available through the full report.
• The Institute of Public Affairs has a poll on Australia Day and political correctness from Dynata, which has also done polling on the other side of the ideological aisle for the aforesaid Australia Institute. This finds 71% agreeing that “Australia Day should be celebrated on January 26” (55% strongly, 16% somewhat), and 68% agreeing Australia had become too politically correct (42% strongly, 26% somewhat). Disagreement with both propositions was at just 11%. A very substantial age effect was evident here, but not for the two further questions relating to pride in Australia, which received enthusiastic responses across the board. I have my doubts about opening the batting on this particular set of questions by asking if respondents were “proud to be an Australian”, which brings Yes Minister to mind. Perhaps the most interesting thing about the poll is the demographic detail on the respondents, who were presumably drawn from an online panel. This shows women were greatly over-represented in the younger cohorts, while the opposite was true among the old; and that the sample included rather too many middle-aged people on low incomes. The results would have been weighted to correct for this, but some of these weightings were doing some fairly heavy lifting (so to speak).
Elsewhere, if you’re a Crikey subscriber you can enjoy my searing expose on the electoral impact of Bridget McKenzie’s sports sports. I particularly hope you appreciate the following line, as it was the fruit of about two days’ work:
When polling booth and sport grants data are aggregated into 2288 local regions designated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, there turns out to be no correlation whatsoever between the amount of funding they received and how much they swung to or against the Coalition.
I worked this out by identifying the approximate target locations of 518 grants, building a dataset recording grant funding and booth-level election swings for each of the ABS’s Statistical Local Area 2 regions, and using linear regression to calculate how much impact the grants had on the Coalition vote. The verdict: absolutely none whatsoever.
Bushfire Bill @ #605 Thursday, January 23rd, 2020 – 9:34 am
Thanks, once again for your anecdote/story. They are always well crafted. However, I don’t necessarily agree with your overall interpretation. Clearly, the impact on peoples’ lives have been devastating and I doubt that peoples’ reactions and attitudes at this time are anything but them grieving for lost people, property and their livelihoods. Grief is a process and takes time to unravel in people and of course it happens differently to all individuals. At this time I’d say the people affected by the devastation are in the shock, denial and anger phases.
I’m not judging people who have lost everything harshly at this time. They all need our support, our love and commitment to help them rebuild their shattered lives.
phoenixRED
The Israelis probably also got anything the Saudis got. The software thought to be involved, “Pegasus”, is sold by an Israeli company , NSO Group, founded by former Israeli intelligence people. I doubt any government let alone Israel would resist ensuring they can get to share some/all of the data collected by such software. Especially seeing the sort of people that buy this product.
“Andrew Forrest says fuel loads, not climate change, are primary cause of bushfires”
https://www.theage.com.au/national/andrew-forrest-says-fuel-loads-not-climate-change-are-primary-cause-of-bushfires-20200123-p53twe.html
Yeah, too many Twigs.
Why does this guy’s scientifically worthless opinion constitute a news story?
STOP REPORTING CRAP, MEDIA.
People want action on the climate as long as it costs them nothing. The Coalition are claiming, mendaciously, that they can do and are doing this. They are also telling lies to the effect that any climate action that actually worked would cost everyday Australians a motza.
And that’s what has to be overcome.
In Davos, Switzerland on Wednesday, President Donald Trump faced pointed questions about the disparity between his initial remarks that no US service members had been injured in the Iranian missile strike on Al-Assad Air Base in Northern Iraq and more recent reports that troops were being treated for those injuries in Kuwait and at Landstuhl hospital in Germany.
“I heard they had headaches and a couple of other things,” said the President, “but I would say, and I can report, it’s not very serious.”
Suicide among veterans receiving less attention than active-duty deaths
After coming home from Iraq, Ray Rivas’ life had become a grind of rehab and chronic pain from a brain injury. On that morning in July 2009, he told his wife he hadn’t slept the night before — the headaches that had plagued him since a mortar shell exploded near him three years earlier often robbed him of sleep.
Instead of going to his vocational rehab session at Easter Seals in San Antonio, the 53-year-old Army Reserve lieutenant colonel drove to Brooke Army Medical Center and overdosed on sleeping pills in a parking lot. A suicide note was found with his body.
https://www.statesman.com/NEWS/20160927/Suicide-among-veterans-receiving-less-attention-than-active-duty-deaths
Barbara StarrVerified account @barbarastarrcnn
“I heard they had headaches,”Trump said when asked about troops with potential concussion injuries in Iraq.”No, I don’t consider it very serious” he said compared to other injuries he’s seen. Will any active duty commanders speak out on this view? RIP Lt Col Rivas
Mark HertlingVerified account @MarkHertling
( From March 2011-November 2012, he served as the Commanding General of U.S. Army Europe and the Seventh Army )
No longer an “active duty commander,” I did spend 3+ yrs commanding large organizations & was personally subjected to multiple IED blasts. These can be serious injuries, they can contribute to death, neurological and psych disorders…and POTUS comment is dangerously wrong.
For soldiers, blast injuries are far more than a ‘headache ‘
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/22/opinions/trump-headaches-injuries-iran-strike-hertling/index.html
I think that the blast injuries mentioned above are the source of the term “shellshock”.
Trump really is an ignoramus.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/01/22/poll-respondents-attitudes/comment-page-13/#comment-3327802
Despite the Australia Act(s) of 1986, the colonies haven’t moved beyond Washminster-style repressive democracy, just look at the colonial Union Jack on the flag, all about the money/ pollyTICS/ media spin cycle, into more social or direct democracy, as in advance Australia, fair
“People want action on the climate as long as it costs them nothing. The Coalition are claiming, mendaciously, that they can do and are doing this. They are also telling lies to the effect that any climate action that actually worked would cost everyday Australians a motza.
And that’s what has to be overcome.”
I think that is only HALF of what has to be overcome. We need to overcome the big lie that acting on climate change is a big cost. In the two fields I am familiar with (power and transport infrastructure) action on climate change is CHEAPER than what we are doing now. Inaction is NOT to save consumers or taxpayers money. It is to preserve the income streams of incumbent (old) asset owners. Building wind power is cheaper than coal. Building a rail line is cheaper than building a freeway. Australia now has some of the highest domestic energy prices in the world, yet we are exporting huge quantities of gas at some of the cheapest, lowest taxed prices in the world. It is the mining companies, construction companies, petrol companies, toll road companies (and one big union?) that are opposing change. The rest of us would be better off if our policy changed.
Our inability to solve climate change, when there are economic solutions, highlights the corrupting of our political decision making process.
Bushfire Bill
People who are scared will react irrationally, and more generally will underperform in many ways.
It’s not surprising the people are scared of climate change, because all sorts of people have told them they should be scared.
Now it is strongly arguable that this fear has a rational basis and this makes it worse – many people react to genuine fear by failing to tack effective action. Fear sometimes works in politics largely when it is a phantom menace (I.e.. noting actually to be feared), hence Mr Dutton’s attempt to generate “fear” amongst Melbourne diners (of course that was so far over the top it turned into a joke).
Where there is genuinely something to fear (Hitler, Cold War), real leaders lead with things like “there is nothing to fear except fear itself”, becuase they know that inaction will be fatal. We need such leaders.
lefty e @ #652 Thursday, January 23rd, 2020 – 9:56 am
Twiggy’s a media baron now, isn’t he? Perhaps just journo trying to get in the good books for when they need another job.
Steve777 says: Thursday, January 23, 2020 at 11:05 am
I think that the blast injuries mentioned above are the source of the term “shellshock”.
Trump really is an ignoramus.
************************************************************
But Donald had it tough too – avoiding STDs with his dates was his “personal Vietnam”
Before the 2016 campaign, Trump occasionally talked about Vietnam with radio host Howard Stern, who often joked about his own imaginary exploits in the war. In two separate interviews during the 1990s, Trump compared trying to avoid sexually transmitted diseases on the dating scene to “my personal Vietnam.”
“It’s pretty dangerous out there,” he said in 1993. “It’s like Vietnam.”
He added in 1996: “I feel like a very great and very brave soldier.”
Trump called himself a “brave soldier” for avoiding STDs while dating in the late 1990s. He made reference to the HIV and AIDS epidemic at the time as well, referring to women’s vaginas as “potential landmines,” adding: “There’s some real danger there.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/06/05/trumps-flippant-talk-about-vietnam-war/
I don’t think I’ve seen any comment on this article from Dawn Patrol.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6590721/albanese-is-trying-to-be-too-clever-by-half-on-coal/?cs=14329
I suppose Albo’s fans will support him, but I think Nicholas Stuart has nailed the Labor problem.
Trump is not being an “ignoramus” . He is trying to play the injuries down because to play them up would mean he risked looking weak by not winding up aggression against Iran and risking war. Not being able to make out as the tough guy/winner is probably Trump’s greatest fear in life. He sure does go vicious when someone shows him not to be.
It’s Timesays:
Thursday, January 23, 2020 at 11:11 am
lefty e @ #652 Thursday, January 23rd, 2020 – 9:56 am
“Andrew Forrest says fuel loads, not climate change, are primary cause of bushfires”
https://www.theage.com.au/national/andrew-forrest-says-fuel-loads-not-climate-change-are-primary-cause-of-bushfires-20200123-p53twe.html
Yeah, too many Twigs.
Why does this guy’s scientifically worthless opinion constitute a news story?
STOP REPORTING CRAP, MEDIA.
Twiggy’s a media baron now, isn’t he? Perhaps just journo trying to get in the good books for when they need another job.”
Obviously, by being mega rich your opinion reaches the level of scientific theory … if not proof!!
phoenixRED:
[‘It was so good that lawyers watching Schiff called it the perfect example to use for law school classes and others complimented it as the most impressive they’ve ever seen.’]
With few exceptions, I found law lecturers/tutors to be fairly hopeless in imparting knowledge to students. Maybe things have changed now with relatively new technology. In my strong view, Schiff’s presentation in the Senate has been to date an almost flawless exercise. And although it won’t sway Republican senators – their imperative is to retain their seats – many fair-minded people viewing the proceeding will have been impressed and in consequence, may vote accordingly in November.
34 degrees; wind gusts to 80 kph; air quality index 200+; dust storm.
#WeatheronPB
lizzie
I had a look at it. Standard clueless Greens guff about coal exports.
PhoenixRED @11:14. That really is totally bizarre.
Boerwar
I’d like a stronger stance on emissions now and I didn’t like Albo agreeing with Dutton. That was a shock.
And Andrew Forrest is an expert on wildfires because… ?
Self- interested blather.
And Twiggy – instead of making big donations (accompanied by trumpet) to steer things in the direction you want, pay your bloody tax.
Steve777 says: Thursday, January 23, 2020 at 11:22 am
PhoenixRED @11:14. That really is totally bizarre.
**********************************************
Donald would have been on the front line – but it was those crippling ‘bone spurs’ ……. when questioned by a reporter in which foot , he could not remember
but …….
Did a Queens Podiatrist Help Donald Trump Avoid Vietnam?
In the fall of 1968, Donald J. Trump received a timely diagnosis of bone spurs in his heels that led to his medical exemption from the military during Vietnam.
For 50 years, the details of how the exemption came about, and who made the diagnosis, have remained a mystery, with Mr. Trump himself saying during the presidential campaign that he could not recall who had signed off on the medical documentation.
Now a possible explanation has emerged about the documentation. It involves a foot doctor in Queens who rented his office from Mr. Trump’s father, Fred C. Trump, and a suggestion that the diagnosis was granted as a courtesy to the elder Mr. Trump.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/26/us/politics/trump-vietnam-draft-exemption.html
Right, so. that’s a podiatrist in Queens, NYC, not Her Majesty’s podiatrist.
Cheers, Canberra.
Steve777 @ #669 Thursday, January 23rd, 2020 – 10:32 am
Yep. And getting a sham medical exemption to avoid forced conscription shouldn’t be a big deal. But if you do that you probably shouldn’t go slagging people who actually served, like McCain.
Jason Crow lays out the human cost of Trump’s Ukraine scheme — citing his military experience
On the second day of the impeachment trial, Rep. Jason Crow (D-CO), a veteran and one of the House impeachment managers, clearly laid out the risk that President Donald Trump’s Ukraine scheme posed to human life — and drew from his own experience in the military.
“I know something about counter-battery radar,” said Crow. “In 2005 I was an Army Ranger serving in a special operations task force in Afghanistan. We were at a remote operating base along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. And frequently, the insurgents that we were fighting would launch rockets and missiles onto our small base. But luckily we were provided with counter-battery radar. The 20, 30, 40 seconds before those rockets and mortars rained down on us, an alarm would sound, and we would run out from our tents and jump into our concrete bunkers and wait for the attack to end. This is not a theoretical exercise, and the Ukrainians know it.”
Every day that the military aid was delayed in Ukraine, said Crow, was a serious problem for them as Russia waged a war of conquest against them.
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/01/jason-crow-lays-out-the-human-cost-of-trumps-ukraine-scheme-citing-his-military-experience/
‘Socrates says:
Thursday, January 23, 2020 at 11:09 am
“People want action on the climate as long as it costs them nothing. The Coalition are claiming, mendaciously, that they can do and are doing this. They are also telling lies to the effect that any climate action that actually worked would cost everyday Australians a motza.
And that’s what has to be overcome.”
I think that is only HALF of what has to be overcome. We need to overcome the big lie that acting on climate change is a big cost.’
When Australia stops exporting $65 billion worth of coal a year and somebody else picks up the slack then we have a $65 billion balance of payments problem.
I assume that this would collapse the value of the Aussie and would make consumer products more expensive.
Beyond that, I don’t have much of an idea of what would ensue.
Any cost/benefit equation not only has to internalize the cost of climate change consequences, it has to internalize the net trade balance implications.
lizzie
I don’t mind an open and rational debate. But we are not going to get it from the coal interests. Or the Greens.
Nowhere have the Greens costed the consequences of shutting off $65 billion worth of exports.
Nowhere have the Greens outlined how this will affect the lifestyles of Australians.
All we get is a repetitive, soothing mantra about how it won’t hurt anyone a bit.
Trump Sends Mike Pompeo To Ukraine To Keep Them Quiet During Impeachment Trial
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is going to Ukraine next week in a move seen by some as done to keep the Ukrainians quiet during the impeachment trial.
Ivan Yakovina, a foreign policy columnist for Ukraine’s Novoye Vremya newsmagazine, said one reason for Pompeo’s trip could be to make sure that “no bad surprises would come from Kyiv during the Trump Senate trial.”
“I mean no word-to-word transcripts of the relevant phone calls or other documents will leak,” he said. “If I were him I would assure the Ukrainians that they will be rewarded if nothing unexpected happens during the trial. And punished if comrade Trump’s enemies will get some sort of help or comfort from Kyiv.”
https://www.politicususa.com/2020/01/22/pompeo-ukraine-impeachment-trial.html
Boerwar
Perhaps refusing to open any NEW coalmines would be a start. The LNP won’t even consider that.
Sleazy has busted the Canberra bubble.
We are getting hailstones as big as tennis balls, the world’s most toxic air, a swingeing drought that is turning the bush capital into a dead gardens capital, bushfires, and now a desert duststorm straight from the heart of the Murray Darling Basin.
Craig Kelly makes it to the “front page” of the NYT. (paywalled)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/22/world/australia/fires-craig-kelly-climate-denial.html?action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage
‘lizzie says:
Thursday, January 23, 2020 at 11:49 am
Boerwar
Perhaps refusing to open any NEW coalmines would be a start. The LNP won’t even consider that.’
New coal mines are a furphy. They will not make any difference to how much coal gets burned.
It might take an election or two or three but cheap coal arriving from Russia is in the process of beginning the killing the Australian coal export trade as we post.
That will essentially get us back to what we are going to do about decarbonizing the Australian economy – after another two or three Coalition governments.
The McKenzie issue doesn’t seem to so much a case of personal corruption, doing it for their own gain or as a favour for a mate, like the Potato, but one of political corruption where the actor is the Government itself.
As a result, just getting McKenzie to stand aside would be a superficial response at best.
My wife and a daughter are severe asthmatics and so we were forced to become internal refugees and seek an escape from the smoke and dust of the fires by travelling to Qld. Whilst there we met several fellow refugees, including a neighbour.
My brother, also an asthmatic, refused to travel and died alone just after Christmas. A cousin of my wife suffered a heart attack and died when the smoke pollution here was at its worst, probably also a part of the collateral damage of climate change.
I will be interested to see the results of any studies on the health effects of the fires, smoke pollution and especially the dust pollution this area has endured for three months or more, with theprobability of at least 3 more months of dust to come.
Boerwar
It’s not only the coal produced that’s detrimental, it’s the destruction of the land that I hate, especially as rehabilitation is just a myth sold by the developers.
[‘The ANZ cut its base rate on its online saver account from 0.1 per cent to the new rate of 0.05 per cent on Thursday, the lowest deposit rate from any of the big four banks. Inflation is currently 1.7 per cent.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/anz-cuts-deposit-rates-to-all-time-low-20200123-p53tzd.html
Yet the deeming rates are 1.75% for amounts up to $51,800 ($86,200 for couples); 3.25% for amounts over $51,800 ($86,200 for couples) and if you can 1.7% on a term deposit, you’re rather doing well. The government attempts to reconcile the high deeming rates relative to low bank interest rates by arguing that many hold shares that attract returns higher than the deeming rates. Many older people, however,
are reluctant to speculate on the stock market. And there’s further bad news, it’s likely that the RBA will further reduce the cash rate by 25 basis point in the near further, with the obvious result. I wonder if older people are coming to the realisation that the Morrison Government isn’t the bee knees after all.
Mavis @ #684 Thursday, January 23rd, 2020 – 10:57 am
Pfft. Everyone knows its the Greens wot did it. Those bastards control everything that happens in this country with their 1 MP and 9 senators! 🙂
FBI Cracks Lev Parnas’ iPhone 11 After Two Months
The FBI has successfully unlocked the iPhone 11 belonging to Lev Parnas, an indited associate of Rudy Guiliani, accused of illegally funnelling foreign money into U.S. elections.
In a report by Bloomberg, Parnas had refused to unlock his device for authorities.
The FBI was able to unlock the iPhone using a third-party software known as Cellebrite after Apple had refused to offer assistance in unlocking the device.
https://www.iphoneincanada.ca/news/fbi-cracks-lev-parnas-iphone-after-two-months/
Barney in Tanjung Bung
Superficial responses are a specialty of theirs and almost certainly the best we’ll get.
lizzie @ #686 Thursday, January 23rd, 2020 – 8:56 am
This is the element that has been lost in the “debate”.
Any discussion around mining in general should be around the environmental impact of the mine.
My perception is that we are regressing in this area and the environmental requirements are becoming too easy to circumvent.
Of course no mine can possibly be without impact and we need to balance these elements, but the environmental guidelines need to be set and be a non-negotiable element in the approval of any mine.
‘a r says:
Thursday, January 23, 2020 at 12:00 pm
Mavis @ #684 Thursday, January 23rd, 2020 – 10:57 am
I wonder if older people are coming to the realisation that the Morrison Government isn’t the bee knees after all.
Pfft. Everyone knows its the Greens wot did it. Those bastards control everything that happens in this country with their 1 MP and 9 senators! ‘
Good point, actually.
Had the Greens not spent six months Killing Bill and Helping Scotty from Marketing, Labor might now be in government. Had this been the case, there is little doubt that Labor is more favourable to pensioners than the Coalition.
This is something that not a single Greens Bill Killer/Same Old, Same Old merchant thought to mention even once in six years.
poroti @ #690 Thursday, January 23rd, 2020 – 9:06 am
I think the Government would consider that a win on the issue.
That’s why I think they’ve come out so strong in support, when she goes it will be seen as a major concession and it focuses the story on her and not the Party.
And make our other exports appear cheaper. Could be handy if we choose to reinvigorate manufacturing of stuff (from the material of the other stuff we will continue to dig up). Be nice to start making solar panels (Tindo panels only designed and assembled here?) and more batteries (like Sonnen?) in Australia. F, why not electric cars?
We are dumb as f if we continue to rely on digging stuff up alone. We are dumb as f if we continue to vote in a do-nothing conservative governments of spin merchants, toadies and gravy train spotters when we need forward thinking doers.
Out of interest… coal makes up 20% of our exports. If that reduces to zero over 30 years, how big an effect will that have on the aussie dollar? Where does all that export income go anyway?
David Sharaz
@DavidSharaz
·
10m
Sky News Political Editor
@aclennell
understands Bridget Mckenzie is being pushed to resign. His sources tell him she will go as early as tomorrow afternoon. #auspol
SK
I assume that since coal has no future and since the Greens are running on coal that they intend to kill the coal industry stone dead on day 1 – not in 30 year’s time!
GG
Lazy Susan, as she is widely-known in her electorate, is up defending BridgieGate as we speak.
So Ley is another Liberal pollie who will lose some skin as a result of the corruption.
Mind you, asking Gold Coast Property Investor Ley about ministerial corruption is a bit OTT, IMO.
Air quality index in Canberra now at 505: hazardous levels.
Boerwar @ #696 Thursday, January 23rd, 2020 – 12:18 pm
But wait, there’s more!
Peter van Onselen
@vanOnselenP
Breaking: I’m very reliably informed Bridget McKenzie had dinner with the PM, Michael McCormack and Josh Frydenberg last night. She is almost certainly gone. Will likely announce tomorrow at latest is my mail… #auspol