Poll respondents with attitudes

New poll results from around the place on attitudes towards climate change, Australia Day and things-in-general.

An off week in the fortnightly cycles for both Newspoll and Essential Research, but we do have three fairly detailed sets of attitudinal polling doing the rounds:

• Ipsos has results from its monthly Issues Monitor series, which records a dramatic escalation in concern about the environment. Asked to pick the three most salient out of 19 listed issues, 41% chose the environment, more than any other. This was up ten on last month’s survey, and compares with single digit results that were not uncommonly recorded as recently as 2015. Cost of living and health care tied for second on 31%, respectively down three and up six on last month. The economy was up one to 25%, and crime down one to 21%. On “party most capable to manage environmental issues across the generations”, generations up to and including X gave the highest rating to the Greens, towards whom the “boomer” and “builder” generations showed their usual hostility. The poll was conducted online from a sample of 1000.

• A poll by YouGov for the Australian Institute finds 79% expressing concern about climate change, up five since a similar poll in July. This includes 47% who were very concerned, up ten. Among those aged 18 to 34, only around 10% expressed a lack of concern. Fifty-seven per cent said Australia was experiencing “a lot” of climate change impact, up 14%; 67% said climate change was making bushfires worse, with 26% disagreeing; and only 33% felt the Coalition had done a good job “managing the climate crisis” (a potentially problematic turn of phrase for those who did not allow that there was one), compared with 53% who took the contrary view. The poll was conducted January 8 to 12 from a sample of 1200; considerable further detail is available through the full report.

• The Institute of Public Affairs has a poll on Australia Day and political correctness from Dynata, which has also done polling on the other side of the ideological aisle for the aforesaid Australia Institute. This finds 71% agreeing that “Australia Day should be celebrated on January 26” (55% strongly, 16% somewhat), and 68% agreeing Australia had become too politically correct (42% strongly, 26% somewhat). Disagreement with both propositions was at just 11%. A very substantial age effect was evident here, but not for the two further questions relating to pride in Australia, which received enthusiastic responses across the board. I have my doubts about opening the batting on this particular set of questions by asking if respondents were “proud to be an Australian”, which brings Yes Minister to mind. Perhaps the most interesting thing about the poll is the demographic detail on the respondents, who were presumably drawn from an online panel. This shows women were greatly over-represented in the younger cohorts, while the opposite was true among the old; and that the sample included rather too many middle-aged people on low incomes. The results would have been weighted to correct for this, but some of these weightings were doing some fairly heavy lifting (so to speak).

Elsewhere, if you’re a Crikey subscriber you can enjoy my searing expose on the electoral impact of Bridget McKenzie’s sports sports. I particularly hope you appreciate the following line, as it was the fruit of about two days’ work:

When polling booth and sport grants data are aggregated into 2288 local regions designated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, there turns out to be no correlation whatsoever between the amount of funding they received and how much they swung to or against the Coalition.

I worked this out by identifying the approximate target locations of 518 grants, building a dataset recording grant funding and booth-level election swings for each of the ABS’s Statistical Local Area 2 regions, and using linear regression to calculate how much impact the grants had on the Coalition vote. The verdict: absolutely none whatsoever.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,074 comments on “Poll respondents with attitudes”

Comments Page 15 of 42
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  1. Peter van Onselen
    @vanOnselenP
    ·
    2m
    Breaking: I’m very reliably informed Bridget McKenzie had dinner with the PM, Michael McCormack and Josh Frydenberg last night. She is almost certainly gone. Will likely announce tomorrow at latest is my mail… #auspol

  2. E. G. Theodore says:
    Thursday, January 23, 2020 at 11:09 am

    Bushfire Bill

    People who are scared will react irrationally, and more generally will underperform in many ways.

    Renewable generation is cheaper than coal. New cars will be electric ( which will clean up our cities no end). It is an economic transformation that will remove the limits set by burning fossil fuel. Trouble is you have the greens selling a boggy man and the liberals selling a lie,making it very difficult for the party that basis it’s policies on science, very difficult for Labor.

  3. But, then again…….

    ennifer Bechwati
    @jenbechwati
    ·
    3m
    Bridget McKenzie’s office has told #7NEWS the minister will NOT be resigning and “is confident there has not been a breach of ministerial standards” #auspol

  4. Any discussion around mining in general should be around the environmental impact of the mine.

    The environment is a losing card. Play it, but expect nix. It is going to be all we can do to stop farmers being allowed to put stock into burnt area regrowth.

    There are a lot of Liberal voters who do love the environment. They will lobby their MPs for fences to be remade and regeneration to be protected and assisted. But until those people are prepared to change their vote it is all too easy for the LNP to listen to the loud and angry Barnabies of this country.

  5. GG

    IMO The worst thing about the sportzrortz affair is that it has absorbed a lot of media time which could have been spent more productively.

  6. frednk @ #701 Thursday, January 23rd, 2020 – 9:22 am

    E. G. Theodore says:
    Thursday, January 23, 2020 at 11:09 am

    Bushfire Bill

    People who are scared will react irrationally, and more generally will underperform in many ways.

    Renewable generation is cheaper than coal. New cars will be electric ( which will clean up our cities no end). It is an economic transformation that will remove the limits set by burning fossil fuel. Trouble is you have the greens selling a boggy man and the liberals selling a lie,making it very difficult for the party that basis it’s policies on science, very difficult for Labor.

    The last supper!!!

    Almost as bad as an arm around your shoulder.

  7. SK
    I assume that since coal has no future and since the Greens are running on coal that they intend to kill the coal industry stone dead on day 1 – not in 30 year’s time!

    I have on occasion voted Green. I do not support closing down coal exports stone dead. I am curious as to what effect losing that 20% of exports will have over that timeframe. Also at the potential for reinvigorating local manufacturing of locally mined materials using cheap locally source renewable energy.

  8. About half of Australian coal exports are coking coal – an input in steel making. It will be some time before that could change. Australia could very easily withstand the effects on its external financial flows of the loss of thermal coal sales. As the price of thermal coal falls this will happen in any case.

    What matters more than this is removing the LNP from power. This is made immeasurably more difficult than it needs to be by the political strategies of the Greens, who have utterly fucked up environmental politics for a generation.

  10. Sky News Political Editor
    @aclennell
    understands Bridget Mckenzie is being pushed to resign. His sources tell him she will go as early as tomorrow afternoon. #auspol
    ______
    Isn’t that when they put out the rubbish?

  12. lizzie @ #705 Thursday, January 23rd, 2020 – 12:23 pm

    GG

    IMO The worst thing about the sportzrortz affair is that it has absorbed a lot of media time which could have been spent more productively.

    Maybe. But, this government has never taken ethics and morality very seriously and certainly the issues around fairness and Governing for all equally are important. So, our much maligned MSM have fought a vigorous and sustained campaign to make the Government accountable. Which, on balance, is a good thing.

    Whether this new found doggedness transfers to other issues which are contentious and competitive is yet to be seen.

  14. GOP would ‘block the smoking gun’ Trump used to shoot someone on Fifth Ave: law professor

    As the Senate impeachment trial entered its second day, the Democratic impeachment managers laid out a gigantic trove of damning evidence against President Donald Trump regarding his scheme in Ukraine. But there is no indication that any Republican senator has been swayed to vote to convict, and it remains unclear even whether they will vote to allow additional evidence to be heard.

    Law professor Jennifer Taub laid out in colorful imagery how hellbent Republicans are on acquitting the president, in the face of any conceivable evidence :

    If Trump shot someone on Fifth Avenue (as he once bragged he could without losing voters), Senate Republicans would vote to block the introduction of the smoking gun into evidence.

    — Jennifer Taub

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/01/gop-would-block-the-smoking-gun-trump-used-to-shoot-someone-on-fifth-ave-law-professor/

  18. lizzie @ #699 Thursday, January 23rd, 2020 – 9:22 am

    Peter van Onselen
    @vanOnselenP
    ·
    2m
    Breaking: I’m very reliably informed Bridget McKenzie had dinner with the PM, Michael McCormack and Josh Frydenberg last night. She is almost certainly gone. Will likely announce tomorrow at latest is my mail… #auspol

    All very well and good, however it’s just diverting attention away from the blatant rorting being done by #ScottyFromMarketing and his henchpersons. The problem won’t go away with the slaughter of a sacrificial lamb.

  19. Isn’t that when they put out the rubbish?

    They will put her in the yellow bin, BK. Recycled and destined for reuse in a Board or some cushy job somewhere.

  20. a r:

    [‘Those bastards control everything that happens in this country with their 1 MP and 9 senators! ‘]

    Well, if they do, why haven’t they done something about the deeming rates? I want action now!

  21. What a mess the Andrews government is in over the west gate tunnel project. Needs to be delivered on time and on budget.
    No excuses.

  22. Simon Katich @ #3891 Thursday, January 23rd, 2020 – 12:13 pm

    I assume that this would collapse the value of the Aussie and would make consumer products more expensive.

    Out of interest… coal makes up 20% of our exports. If that reduces to zero over 30 years, how big an effect will that have on the aussie dollar? Where does all that export income go anyway?

    Back overseas to the Billionaire Owners who do not take part in the Australian Economy in any significant way – particularly not as tax.

    The entire GRASPER (GReady SPiv Party) enterprise, including the non-elected Murdorcs, are an exercise in justifying the NeoLib Con, then frightening we turkeys into voting for Christmas, coz the Other Turkeys might get ahead.

    Fuck em. Time to tax wealth stolen from those who actually make it, rather than the fucking Rentiers. It’s that, or return to pitchforks and tumbrils.

  23. It seems like Bridget’s over trouble waters atm.

    Very good. I have been away. I assume ‘A Bridget too far’ has been given a good run.

  24. https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/coal-price
    Thermal coal…USD 45/tonne spot…US inland market

    https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=coal-australian&months=60
    Flat at about USD65.00/ tonne, fob Newcastle…

    https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/coal/012220-us-thermal-met-coal-outlook-negative-on-weak-pricing-and-dropping-demand-moodys

    Outlook for thermal coal distinctly negative….

    PROJECTED DEMAND
    Moody’s projects coal demand will drop to 550 million st this year, the lowest level since early 1970s. The US Energy Information Administration, it noted, also forecast coal demand to drop 14% to 597 million st in 2020.

    “Domestic thermal coal volumes face an environment of contracting demand from coal-fired power plants, which account for most demand, cutting consumption by more than half over the last decade,” Moody’s said. “Weak export pricing makes it uneconomical to export a significant percentage of the coal that producers have exported previously, leading to a meaningful decline in exports in 2019 that will intensify in 2020.”

    Met volumes, which are mostly exported, will drop as well given the weak steel industry conditions.

    Moody’s also expects coal export volumes to continue dropping in 2020, “leading to significant deterioration in earnings and cash flow generation,” the report said.

    Moody’s noted its prior warning on falling exports in early 2019 when it revised its outlook from stable to negative, however coal producers had yet to feel the full impact on earnings given contracts signed in a stronger environment.

    “We expect that EBITDA will fall by about one-third across the rated portfolio in 2020, including some met-driven producers that could fall more significantly,” the report continued.

    COAL DIVESTMENTS
    An additional concern for coal companies has been the increasing number of investors signaling plans to move away from the coal industry due to environmental factors.

    “This shift will increase financing costs for coal companies over time, especially in bond markets, prompting coal producers’ boards to reassess the appropriate levels and mixes of debt in the coal producers’ capital structures,” Moody’s said.

    https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/weakening-lng-prices-may-sap-seaborne-coal-demand-in-near-term-sources/

    Coal getting smashed by falling gas prices…

  26. Two more NSW ministers have expressed their frustration at the length of time major charities are taking to distribute millions of dollars in bushfire relief.

    The Red Cross, St Vincent de Paul and the Salvation Army have been accused of drip feeding donations to fire-affected communities, and stockpiling money for future emergencies.

    Yesterday, Transport Minister Andrew Constance fired a broadside at the charities, claiming money was “sitting in a Red Cross bank account earning interest”.

    The minister in charge of the state’s bushfire disaster recovery, Deputy Premier John Barilaro, also piled on, saying the charities must pass on every single dollar that was donated.

    “To read that organisations like Red Cross are putting some of that money aside for a future crisis or emergency is not in the spirit of what I believe Australians gave that money,” he said.

    “I believe that there has got to be a clear message to those organisations that that money must flow today.”

    It is typical of any non-profit that they use a ‘crisis’ to call for donations, but the bushfires are not a manufactured emergency. They are real. The charities are carrying out their usual strategies for donations, and aren’t looking at the reality of people suffering.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-23/bushfire-aid-row-continues-as-red-cross-attacked-again/11892062

  27. Weakening LNG prices may sap seaborne coal demand in near-term: sources
    in International Shipping News 22/01/2020

    Asian seaborne thermal coal traders voiced concerns over near-term demand as more utilities consider the feasibility of a coal-to-gas switching amid languishing LNG prices, sources told S&P Global Platts.
    The S&P Global Platts JKM for March was assessed at $4.184/MMbtu on Monday, down 10.5% on the week amid ample supply and scant demand.

    Sources were cautious that a fall in LNG prices could disrupt the short term rise of thermal coal prices.
    The recent uptick in the Indonesian low-cv thermal coal prices was due to prompt tightness amid Kalimantan rains and demand post-Christmas and New Year holidays, said a Singapore-based trader.
    Demand for mid to high-cv Newcastle coal could take a hit as well, amid buyers’ unwillingness to lock in prices at the current level, said the trader.

    Platts assessed the Australian 5,500 kcal/kg NAR coal with 23% ash at $54.90/mt FOB Newcastle on Monday, up 85 cents/mt on the week.

    Aussie lower-grade coal at USD54.90 fob….no-one is gonna make money on Galilee coal at that sort of price….

  28. lizzie @ #726 Thursday, January 23rd, 2020 – 12:40 pm

    Two more NSW ministers have expressed their frustration at the length of time major charities are taking to distribute millions of dollars in bushfire relief.

    The Red Cross, St Vincent de Paul and the Salvation Army have been accused of drip feeding donations to fire-affected communities, and stockpiling money for future emergencies.

    Yesterday, Transport Minister Andrew Constance fired a broadside at the charities, claiming money was “sitting in a Red Cross bank account earning interest”.

    The minister in charge of the state’s bushfire disaster recovery, Deputy Premier John Barilaro, also piled on, saying the charities must pass on every single dollar that was donated.

    “To read that organisations like Red Cross are putting some of that money aside for a future crisis or emergency is not in the spirit of what I believe Australians gave that money,” he said.

    “I believe that there has got to be a clear message to those organisations that that money must flow today.”

    It is typical of any non-profit that they use a ‘crisis’ to call for donations, but the bushfires are not a manufactured emergency. They are real. The charities are carrying out their usual strategies for donations, and aren’t looking at the reality of people suffering.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-23/bushfire-aid-row-continues-as-red-cross-attacked-again/11892062

    Who do these Charities think they are, the fucking Government?

  30. Darcy Byrne
    @MayorDarcy
    Unbelievably I have just received a demand letter from the Dept of Home Affairs insisting that we must immediately create a new dress code for citizenship ceremonies. Our continent has been engulfed in an inferno and acting as the fashion police is the Government’s priority?!

  31. Simon Katich @ #717 Thursday, January 23rd, 2020 – 11:34 am

    Isn’t that when they put out the rubbish?

    They will put her in the yellow bin, BK. Recycled and destined for reuse in a Board or some cushy job somewhere.

    I’m sure she won’t be resigning from Parliament. It will be an interesting dynamic sacking the deputy NP leader from the ministry. Will the Nats accept this? Will someone else be selected as deputy? Welcome back Barny?

  32. Phillip Adams @PhillipAdams_1
    ·
    10m
    With a couple of notable exceptions Australia’s wealthiest are a dreadful bunch. Make Russia’s oligarchs look like saints on icons

  33. Massive drops in coal consumption in the US continue…at the current rate of decline there will be a 75% contraction in US consumption by the end of this decade.

    This reflects the price disadvantage of coal v renewables and the impossibility of financing new coal-reliant assets. This will inevitably also be reflected in the seaborne market, which, while small in global terms, is the main source of demand in Australia.

  34. lizzie @ #724 Thursday, January 23rd, 2020 – 11:40 am

    Two more NSW ministers have expressed their frustration at the length of time major charities are taking to distribute millions of dollars in bushfire relief.

    The Red Cross, St Vincent de Paul and the Salvation Army have been accused of drip feeding donations to fire-affected communities, and stockpiling money for future emergencies.

    Yesterday, Transport Minister Andrew Constance fired a broadside at the charities, claiming money was “sitting in a Red Cross bank account earning interest”.

    The minister in charge of the state’s bushfire disaster recovery, Deputy Premier John Barilaro, also piled on, saying the charities must pass on every single dollar that was donated.

    “To read that organisations like Red Cross are putting some of that money aside for a future crisis or emergency is not in the spirit of what I believe Australians gave that money,” he said.

    “I believe that there has got to be a clear message to those organisations that that money must flow today.”

    It is typical of any non-profit that they use a ‘crisis’ to call for donations, but the bushfires are not a manufactured emergency. They are real. The charities are carrying out their usual strategies for donations, and aren’t looking at the reality of people suffering.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-23/bushfire-aid-row-continues-as-red-cross-attacked-again/11892062

    Lizzie I would be caution taking these media scapegoat reports on face value.

  36. ‘lizzie says:
    Thursday, January 23, 2020 at 12:45 pm

    Phillip Adams @PhillipAdams_1
    ·
    10m
    With a couple of notable exceptions Australia’s wealthiest are a dreadful bunch. Make Russia’s oligarchs look like saints on icons’

    I take it that Adams has never been murdered by a Russian oligarch.

  37. Dutton is still around. Two hours ago on 2gb.

    Peter Dutton says his government isn’t taking advice from “Twitter crazies” over their handling of the sports funding scandal.

    The Home Affairs Minister is standing by former sports minister Bridget McKenzie, who has been fighting allegations of ‘pork-barrelling’.

    Although the Prime Minister has now asked the head of his department to investigate the claims of mismanagement, Peter Dutton says they’re “not hanging people out to dry”.

    “We’re not listening to the Twitter crazies,” he tells Ray Hadley.

    “We are looking at the facts and we make decisions based on that.”

    He also issued a strong rebuke of NSW Environment Minister Matt Kean, who has been criticised for claiming federal frontbenchers are divided on the government’s response to climate change.

    Ray Hadley: “Have you heard of Matt Kean?”

    Peter Dutton: “Never. I don’t think outside of a three square kilometre block in Sydney people have heard of him, and I wouldn’t give him publicity. I think he should mind his own business and I think he should concentrate, frankly, on his own responsibilities.”

  38. poroti @ #3913 Thursday, January 23rd, 2020 – 12:33 pm

    An eerie silence still holding on the ‘Australia Day” front in the Culture War. A truce ? Exhaustion ? Rearming ?

    The Murdorc Climate Denial Einsatzgruppen is in panicked withdrawal. Only the Strafbataillon, the Useful Idiots (eg A. Bolt BA(withdrew)) and the truly delusional remain. I suspect some of them will be given a cultural grenade and sent into the streets of Dark Emu Land in the face of Invasion Day. The rest are packing for Brazil.

  39. Peter van Onselen
    @vanOnselenP
    ·
    1m
    The PM’s Principal Private Secretary is ringing around telling people McKenzie wasn’t at the dinner. She was… #auspol

    Is telling fibs their first reaction to everything now?

  41. It’s quite obvious now that coal will be largely retired in the advanced industrial economies within about 15 years. The economies that do this first – those with the best access to new capital and technology – will derive the greatest cost advantages. The EU, the UK, the US, Japan are at the frontier. Everyone else will inevitably have to follow.

    In Australia we have to prepare for a post-coal economy. The LNP will try to resist this for as long as possible, as they invariably do.

  45. lizzie @ #736 Thursday, January 23rd, 2020 – 9:49 am

    Dutton is still around. Two hours ago on 2gb.

    …

    “We’re not listening to the Twitter crazies,” he tells Ray Hadley.

    “We are looking at the facts and we make decisions based on that.”

    …

    So they’re going to hold a meeting of Liberal and National MPs.

    All the facts will then be in one room.

  46. Methinks the pollies jumping up and down re charities are attempting to distract from the lack of response, public services and capability to respond on their own part. Especially when it comes to the capabilities/resources they have sold off or dumped as they follow their ideology on the role of government.

  47. @sirisgonerogue
    ·
    2h
    Hi #RedCross, just so there’s no confusion, I didn’t donate funds to the #bushfirecrisis for you to unilaterally decide who gets it and when. I donated so affected people got assistance now, not three years from now. Just to state the bleeding obvious, it’s not your fcking money.

  49. Lol. Just back to my day job from 19 days of fighting fires, and 3 days in hospital (smoke inhalation + dehydration, plus an irregular heart beat ain’t much fun) and still the ALP/Greens wars continue. Have you lot no shame? The Tories and their Mining donor bosses are hell bent on burning us all alive and still the left cannot sort themselves into some kind of cohesive outfit.

    The Greens aren’t the solution.
    The ALP aren’t the solution.

    Both parties (MPs, Senators, leadership, and ordinary members) have utterly failed us, and are continuing to fail us. Ultimately – focussing on them now when there is no means of changing the government in the near future is futile, no matter how Scotty’s poll numbers are looking, or whether Albo’s net-satisfaction is up, or whether Di Natale sent around some tasty memes.

    If any of you think that playing out these petty rivalries on some server in Sydney is in any way helping, imagine that you’ll one day have to explain to your children, grandchildren, nephews, nieces how you tried to stop the impending catastrophe. Please find something constructive to do to help because we badly, direly need it.

  50. Two more NSW ministers have expressed their frustration at the length of time major charities are taking to distribute millions of dollars in bushfire relief.
    …Who do these Charities think they are, the fucking Government?

    Ha! I heard the MP talking on the radio about this and they were exactly my thoughts – expressed loudly. The radio didnt respond to my expletives. It never does.

    Nearly half of donations have already made it to the hands of those who need it. That, IMO, is pretty darn good considering their needs will change but not abate. Another big influx will be needed in the weeks and months ahead. Prudent. This is a clear diversionary tactic from the MPs. Especially the Emergency Services minister – the one who left for a European holiday in the middle of the fire crisis.

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