Poll respondents with attitudes

New poll results from around the place on attitudes towards climate change, Australia Day and things-in-general.

An off week in the fortnightly cycles for both Newspoll and Essential Research, but we do have three fairly detailed sets of attitudinal polling doing the rounds:

• Ipsos has results from its monthly Issues Monitor series, which records a dramatic escalation in concern about the environment. Asked to pick the three most salient out of 19 listed issues, 41% chose the environment, more than any other. This was up ten on last month’s survey, and compares with single digit results that were not uncommonly recorded as recently as 2015. Cost of living and health care tied for second on 31%, respectively down three and up six on last month. The economy was up one to 25%, and crime down one to 21%. On “party most capable to manage environmental issues across the generations”, generations up to and including X gave the highest rating to the Greens, towards whom the “boomer” and “builder” generations showed their usual hostility. The poll was conducted online from a sample of 1000.

• A poll by YouGov for the Australian Institute finds 79% expressing concern about climate change, up five since a similar poll in July. This includes 47% who were very concerned, up ten. Among those aged 18 to 34, only around 10% expressed a lack of concern. Fifty-seven per cent said Australia was experiencing “a lot” of climate change impact, up 14%; 67% said climate change was making bushfires worse, with 26% disagreeing; and only 33% felt the Coalition had done a good job “managing the climate crisis” (a potentially problematic turn of phrase for those who did not allow that there was one), compared with 53% who took the contrary view. The poll was conducted January 8 to 12 from a sample of 1200; considerable further detail is available through the full report.

• The Institute of Public Affairs has a poll on Australia Day and political correctness from Dynata, which has also done polling on the other side of the ideological aisle for the aforesaid Australia Institute. This finds 71% agreeing that “Australia Day should be celebrated on January 26” (55% strongly, 16% somewhat), and 68% agreeing Australia had become too politically correct (42% strongly, 26% somewhat). Disagreement with both propositions was at just 11%. A very substantial age effect was evident here, but not for the two further questions relating to pride in Australia, which received enthusiastic responses across the board. I have my doubts about opening the batting on this particular set of questions by asking if respondents were “proud to be an Australian”, which brings Yes Minister to mind. Perhaps the most interesting thing about the poll is the demographic detail on the respondents, who were presumably drawn from an online panel. This shows women were greatly over-represented in the younger cohorts, while the opposite was true among the old; and that the sample included rather too many middle-aged people on low incomes. The results would have been weighted to correct for this, but some of these weightings were doing some fairly heavy lifting (so to speak).

Elsewhere, if you’re a Crikey subscriber you can enjoy my searing expose on the electoral impact of Bridget McKenzie’s sports sports. I particularly hope you appreciate the following line, as it was the fruit of about two days’ work:

When polling booth and sport grants data are aggregated into 2288 local regions designated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, there turns out to be no correlation whatsoever between the amount of funding they received and how much they swung to or against the Coalition.

I worked this out by identifying the approximate target locations of 518 grants, building a dataset recording grant funding and booth-level election swings for each of the ABS’s Statistical Local Area 2 regions, and using linear regression to calculate how much impact the grants had on the Coalition vote. The verdict: absolutely none whatsoever.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,074 comments on “Poll respondents with attitudes”

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  3. Following the latest revelation about a grant to a club she’s a member of, I’d be surprised if McKenzie hasn’t resigned before parliament resumes, though with this mob, personal ministerial responsibility is merely seen as an inconvenient fetter on their powers.

  5. Hillary Clinton is the second most disliked major party presidential nominee in the history of polling. When she says that “Nobody likes Bernie” she means wealthy donors and centrist journalists and pundits. She omits the public, who overwhelmingly like and respect Bernie.

  7. Nicholas @ #105 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2020 – 7:30 am

    Hillary Clinton is the second most disliked major party presidential nominee in the history of polling. When she says that “Nobody likes Bernie” she means wealthy donors and centrist journalists and pundits. She omits the public, who overwhelmingly like and respect Bernie.

    You mean those who have met him, opposed to those who haven’t.

    It’s sad that perceptions have become more important than reality!

    It all comes down to marketing. 🙂

  8. frednk @ #101 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2020 – 10:23 am

    Pegasus says:
    Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 9:40 am

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/22/scott-morrisons-senior-ministers-discuss-how-to-reposition-climate-policies
    …
    Labor needs to come out with detailed plans for just transition and sell these plans every day from now to the next election.

    How could Labor be so callous as to remove the Greens big policy advantage at the next election?

    Because they’ll always want MORE!

    The Greens be like:

  15. C@tmomma @ #110 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2020 – 9:42 am

    So, Nicholas agrees that Bernie Sanders should keep his Dark Money Super PAC?

    Maybe, maybe not.

    I think the point is more that 1) Hillary should commit to backing whomever the nominee is (so long as the Democrats don’t somehow figure out a way to nominate Donald Trump), and 2) people who want to see Trump gone should focus on all the dodgy, morally bankrupt, and brazenly illegal things Trump is doing instead of worrying about Sanders.

  19. Lars Von Trier says:
    Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 8:43 am

    …”and what do you base this sweeping assertion on? Your extensive knowledge and participation in US politics or just something you read?”…

    ……………………..

    It’s neither of those things.

    It is a deeply held and near psychotic hatred of anyone who has even the slightest whiff of socialism about them.

    Actually quite similar to how a different sub-group of rightist nutters just “know” that the Greenies cause bushfires.

  20. nath says:
    Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 9:27 am

    Day 200 of the First Shorten Government. The Greatest Government in Australian History.

    On this day Prime Minister Shorten delivered carrots to a wildlife sanctuary.

    ———————————————————-

    You remember when nauseous Nath went ballistic over Bill Shorten helping a woman at a grocery store. I suppose in his mind it was linked to the SDA.

    You get an idea of his formidable intellect when there hasn’t been a peep out of him over
    “hand-groper” Morrison’s visit to Cobargo.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kePvZkV-Zcs

    How are 200+ days of Australia’s worst national government going, wise one?

    Even you might now realize that Scott Morrison isn’t worthy of tying Bill’s shoelaces.

    Hopefully this will start sinking into your irrational, paranoid and obsessive brain and you’ll turn to real issues.

    I’m not holding my breath.

  21. Greensborough Growler says:
    Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 8:53 am

    …”Hillary gathered 66 million votes. Even more than Trump. You can’t say she wasn’t popular”…

    ……………………………….

    Hillary Clinton was NOT popular.

  22. Lars and Not Sure

    C@ is correct. Sanders has been an independent most of his career. He only ‘became’ a Democrat when he decided to run for President. He has used the Democrats for his political advantage.

    It’s fairly common knowledge, easily verifiable, and only people with some kind of weird agenda would be attacking another poster for saying so.

  24. I am watching the impeachment trial. I just learned via my son (a Bernie Sanders admirer) that when the Majority Leader proposes a motion to ‘Table an Amendment’ and it passes, that means the Admentment is killed off.

    Also son advised me that all media reps have been banned from the building, so no door/corridor stops, and that there is no still photography allowed of the proceedings, and camera angles for the broadcast are severely limited.

    Every Amendment requesting documents, and any evidence of any kind is being tabled because the Republicans are voting to kill it.

    There is not one Republican with a spine, in the whole room.

  25. Pegasus says:
    Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 9:51 am
    https://theconversation.com/scientists-hate-to-say-i-told-you-so-but-australia-you-were-warned-130211

    Scientists have, clearly and respectfully, warned about the risks to Australia of a rapidly heating climate – more extreme heat, changes to rainfall patterns, rising seas, increased coastal flooding and more dangerous bushfire conditions. We have also warned about the consequences of these changes for our health and well-being, our society and economy, our natural ecosystems and our unique wildlife.
    Being quiet, civil and respectful doesn’t cut it anymore. Writing letters, sending emails, signing petitions doesn’t cut it anymore. Politely requesting action from our politicians doesn’t cut it any more. Such actions have been tried for decades and have failed.

    Now is the time to take collective action within our communities and be loud.

    Now is the time to stand up, march in the streets and take direct action.

    Otherwise it will continue to be business as usual all the while the planet burns.

    Yeah. Good luck with that. After 25 years of non-stop sledge-ware, no-one listens to the Greens.

  26. McKenzie now being described as “embattled”:

    [‘Labor leader Anthony Albanese says revelations federal minister Bridget McKenzie oversaw funding to a shooting club she was a member of “fails every test”.

    The embattled Nationals deputy leader is engulfed in a growing controversy surrounding a $100 million federal government “slush fund”, which a damning audit last week revealed was used to splash cash at marginal electorates ahead of last year’s federal election.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-fails-every-test-albanese-says-pm-must-sack-bridget-mckenzie-20200122-p53tlm.html

    And there’s little doubt that Morrison was not up to his neck in this rort lest he would’ve denied knowledge of it when a asked a direct question about it. And then there’s the money that Hillsong received for a security upgrade.

  27. Let’s see, a Shorten Labor Government would have had,

    1. More resources available to respond to the fires, notably more aircraft.
    2. Implemented, or be working towards getting stronger climate legislation through the Parliament.

    That sounds horribly incompetent compared to the Marketeers!!!

  28. I think Sanders was better suited to 2016 and Clinton might have been better this time around. I don’t see Sanders winning in November nor Biden.

  29. NSS

    “It is a deeply held and near psychotic hatred of anyone who has even the slightest whiff of socialism about them.”

    Indeed. Mustn’t upset the establishment. It’s all the way with ‘centrism’ ! That will shake the status quo up, or not. Mustn’t upset the powerful vested interests who profit from business as usual.

  31. Peg
    Hatred of socialism is pretty mainstream in America, its not really about the establishment whatever that is. The hatred is rooted in the history of how America developed and why its politics is unique in many ways.

  32. peg

    No, it’s a matter of fact, no psychosis necessary.

    Facts are important. It’s discarding the facts that don’t suit people’s points of view that gets us into messes like the one we’re presently in on climate change.

    I would have thought that you would have been against people touting fake news, not supporting them.

  33. a r @ #115 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2020 – 10:50 am

    C@tmomma @ #110 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2020 – 9:42 am

    So, Nicholas agrees that Bernie Sanders should keep his Dark Money Super PAC?

    Maybe, maybe not.

    I think the point is more that 1) Hillary should commit to backing whomever the nominee is (so long as the Democrats don’t somehow figure out a way to nominate Donald Trump), and 2) people who want to see Trump gone should focus on all the dodgy, morally bankrupt, and brazenly illegal things Trump is doing instead of worrying about Sanders.

    1. Yes she will. She is a loyal Democrat.

    2. Yes they should because Sanders will not be the Democrat nominee. 😐

  34. mb
    “Hatred of socialism is pretty mainstream in America, its not really about the establishment whatever that is. The hatred is rooted in the history of how America developed and why its politics is unique in many ways.”

    Yes, hatred of socialism in the US is not the result of some top-down conspiracy (the “establishment” thing). It’s deeply ingrained in the American pysche. Even the majority of self-styled progressives baulk at the term.

  35. I guess The Greens’ partisans are just becoming older and more conservative as they age. Like Bernie Sanders’ voters:

    Vermont is one of the whitest states in the nation, as well as among the most rural, the oldest (in terms of the age of its population), and with the fewest immigrants. Sanders, to win elections, had to appeal to hunters, older voters and other socially conservative constituencies. This explains his long opposition to gun safety measures (he voted repeatedly against the Brady bill and measures to hold gun manufacturers liable for the damage done by their products), his comparatively late conversion to the cause of gay marriage (he opposed it in Vermont as late as 2006), and his nativist opposition to certain immigration reforms (on the grounds that they would undercut wages for American workers).

    If Sanders wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, it’s a safe bet that African American voters in South Carolina will hear quite a lot from his Democratic competitors about his vote for the so-called “Charleston loophole” that allowed the white supremacist Dylann Roof to get the gun he used to kill nine African Americans at a South Carolina church. And although former vice-president Joe Biden has caught heat for writing what became the 1994 crime bill – which, many progressives claim, resulted in mass minority incarceration – Sanders voted for it as well.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/16/bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren-donald-trump

    One could almost say that, to support Bernie Sanders is to support a loosening of Australia’s guncontrol laws; repeal of Same Sex Marriage; curbs on Immigration in order to suport the White Working Class; and Hunting.

    Good one, Greens’ supporters of Bernie Sanders!

    Oh, and Grumpy Old Men who can’t get along with anyone. 😆

  36. zoomster says:
    Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 11:08 am
    Lars and Not Sure

    C@ is correct. Sanders has been an independent most of his career. He only ‘became’ a Democrat when he decided to run for President. He has used the Democrats for his political advantage.

    It’s fairly common knowledge, easily verifiable, and only people with some kind of weird agenda would be attacking another poster for saying so.
    ___________________________
    If you took the time to research the facts zoomster, instead of parroting you would know :

    1> There is no party registration in Vermont – hence Sanders doesn’t need to register in Vermont
    2> He is reported as having been a democrat since 1984 – hardly someone who joined for political advantage (as if that is a crime)
    3> Sanders has caucused with the democrats in Washington since he was elected to the US Senate

    Perhaps you are a closet nukes supporter like confessions ?

  37. Yes, hatred of socialism in the US is not the result of some top-down conspiracy (the “establishment” thing). It’s deeply ingrained in the American pysche.

    Socialism is exactly equivalent to Communism. And government, any government, is implicitly untrustworthy, oppressive, and evil.

    It’s the American way.

  38. LVT
    I don’t think Americans see party memberships as we tend too, I don’t know if the term rat means much in America as party membership seems to be fairly fluid but there is still political tribalism.

  39. It’s ‘near-certain’ Saudi crown prince hacked Jared Kushner’s phone and ‘had secret access’ for years: reporter

    The House of Saud crown prince was implicated in the hacking of Washington Post owner and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos’s cell phone in a bombshell new report in The Guardian.

    “The Amazon billionaire Jeff Bezos had his mobile phone “hacked” in 2018 after receiving a WhatsApp message that had apparently been sent from the personal account of the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, sources have told the Guardian.

    Ryan Grim, the DC bureau chief for The Intercept, took the reasoning a step further.

    “As we previously reported, Kushner chatted regularly with MBS on WhatsApp. It is near-certain that MBS pulled this same hack on Kushner and Saudi [Arabia] has therefore had secret access to his phone for years,” Grim noted.

    Grim linked to a 2018 story headlined, “Saudi Crown Prince boasted that Jared Kushner was ‘in his pocket.’”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/01/its-near-certain-saudi-crown-prince-hacked-jared-kushners-phone-and-had-secret-access-for-years-reporter/

  40. zoomster says:
    Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 11:09 am

    …”She was more popular than Sanders, which was the point being made”…

    ……………….

    This assertion has not yet been tested, but perhaps we shall see.

  42. Peg: ‘Now is the time to stand up, march in the streets and take direct action.’

    You also forgot to mention, in your call to action, for everyone to slag Labor and support the Coalition.

    After all Labor was the only government to actually reduce emissions, while the Coalition loves coal, and would leave to see Adani up and running.

    Hang-on, somethings wrong there….

  43. Not Sure

    No, there is data available – polling from the last campaign – which is what I referenced.

    To refute this, you’ll have to provide other polling which compares Clinton and Sanders, rather than working off gut feelings or whatever.

  44. ‘He is guilty and he knows it’: Val Demings lays out the case against Trump in thunderous floor speech

    On the first day of the Senate impeachment trial, Rep. Val Demings (D-FL), one of the House impeachment managers, clearly articulated the seriousness of the charges against President Donald Trump.

    the president sought to conceal evidence of this conduct,” continued Demings. “He did so by ordering his entire administration — every office, every agency, every official — to defy every subpoena served in the House impeachment inquiry.

    “As a career law enforcement officer, I have never seen anyone take such extreme steps to hide evidence allegedly proving his innocence. And I do not find that here today. The president is engaged in this cover-up because he is guilty, and he knows it.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/01/he-is-guilty-and-he-knows-it-val-demings-lays-out-the-case-against-trump-in-thunderous-floor-speech/

  45. Yep, Sanders has been such a Democrat all his life:

    Sanders later described his time in Chicago at the University of Chicago as “the major period of intellectual ferment in my life”. While there, he joined the Young People’s Socialist League (the youth affiliate of the Socialist Party of America).

    …Sanders also worked on the reelection campaign of Leon Despres, a prominent Chicago alderman who was opposed to mayor Richard J. Daley’s Democratic Party machine.

    …Sanders began his electoral political career in 1971 as a member of the Liberty Union Party, which originated in the anti-war movement and the People’s Party. He ran as the Liberty Union candidate for governor of Vermont in 1972 and 1976 and as a candidate for U.S. senator in 1972 and 1974.[51] In the 1974 senatorial race, Sanders finished third (5,901 votes; 4%), behind 33-year-old Chittenden County State’s Attorney Patrick Leahy (D, VI; 70,629 votes; 49%) and two-term incumbent U.S. Representative Dick Mallary (R; 66,223 votes; 46%).

    …Sanders was reelected three times, defeating both Democratic and Republican candidates. He received 53% of the vote in 1983 and 55% in 1985. In his final run for mayor in 1987, Sanders defeated Paul Lafayette, a Democrat endorsed by both major parties. In 1986, Sanders unsuccessfully challenged incumbent Governor Madeleine Kunin (D) in her run for reelection. Running as an independent, Sanders finished third with 14% of the vote, while Kunin won with 47%, followed by Lt. Governor Peter P. Smith (R) with 38%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Sanders

    Oh dear, looks like you CAN run as a Democrat or a Republican in Vermont, after all.

    But Sanders chose not to.

  46. mb
    “I don’t think Americans see party memberships as we tend too,”

    You’re right. When you register to vote in the US, you are given a choice of party affiliation: Democratic, Republican, or None/Independent. You don’t actually sign up for party membership the way we do in Australia.

  48. Re McKenzie gun club membership.

    The club says;

    “Not many gun clubs can claim federal ministers amongst their membership, but the Wangaratta Clay Target Club now can,” the club boasted on its website in late January 2019.

    “While here to talk to the committee, Bridget signed up to our club as a full fee-paying member.

    On the other hand, her office says this;

    A spokeswoman for Senator McKenzie said the membership was a gift and was worth less than $300 — making a declaration to the Senate “unnecessary”.

    Which one is it?

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-22/bridget-mckenzie-sports-grants-linked-to-shooting-club/11888402

  50. Been out shopping. Went to local feed store. Owner not happy.

    Refrigeration broke down in hot weather. Replaced it at great expense after throwing away all meat in it, but now the pet food supplier has problems getting supplies (easy to guess why) .

    This is a small business miles away from fires, but the owner is upset and angry because of four weeks of being unable to supply customers. He reckons he’s losing thousands of dollars.

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