An off week in the fortnightly cycles for both Newspoll and Essential Research, but we do have three fairly detailed sets of attitudinal polling doing the rounds:
• Ipsos has results from its monthly Issues Monitor series, which records a dramatic escalation in concern about the environment. Asked to pick the three most salient out of 19 listed issues, 41% chose the environment, more than any other. This was up ten on last month’s survey, and compares with single digit results that were not uncommonly recorded as recently as 2015. Cost of living and health care tied for second on 31%, respectively down three and up six on last month. The economy was up one to 25%, and crime down one to 21%. On “party most capable to manage environmental issues across the generations”, generations up to and including X gave the highest rating to the Greens, towards whom the “boomer” and “builder” generations showed their usual hostility. The poll was conducted online from a sample of 1000.
• A poll by YouGov for the Australian Institute finds 79% expressing concern about climate change, up five since a similar poll in July. This includes 47% who were very concerned, up ten. Among those aged 18 to 34, only around 10% expressed a lack of concern. Fifty-seven per cent said Australia was experiencing “a lot” of climate change impact, up 14%; 67% said climate change was making bushfires worse, with 26% disagreeing; and only 33% felt the Coalition had done a good job “managing the climate crisis” (a potentially problematic turn of phrase for those who did not allow that there was one), compared with 53% who took the contrary view. The poll was conducted January 8 to 12 from a sample of 1200; considerable further detail is available through the full report.
• The Institute of Public Affairs has a poll on Australia Day and political correctness from Dynata, which has also done polling on the other side of the ideological aisle for the aforesaid Australia Institute. This finds 71% agreeing that “Australia Day should be celebrated on January 26” (55% strongly, 16% somewhat), and 68% agreeing Australia had become too politically correct (42% strongly, 26% somewhat). Disagreement with both propositions was at just 11%. A very substantial age effect was evident here, but not for the two further questions relating to pride in Australia, which received enthusiastic responses across the board. I have my doubts about opening the batting on this particular set of questions by asking if respondents were “proud to be an Australian”, which brings Yes Minister to mind. Perhaps the most interesting thing about the poll is the demographic detail on the respondents, who were presumably drawn from an online panel. This shows women were greatly over-represented in the younger cohorts, while the opposite was true among the old; and that the sample included rather too many middle-aged people on low incomes. The results would have been weighted to correct for this, but some of these weightings were doing some fairly heavy lifting (so to speak).
Elsewhere, if you’re a Crikey subscriber you can enjoy my searing expose on the electoral impact of Bridget McKenzie’s sports sports. I particularly hope you appreciate the following line, as it was the fruit of about two days’ work:
When polling booth and sport grants data are aggregated into 2288 local regions designated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, there turns out to be no correlation whatsoever between the amount of funding they received and how much they swung to or against the Coalition.
I worked this out by identifying the approximate target locations of 518 grants, building a dataset recording grant funding and booth-level election swings for each of the ABS’s Statistical Local Area 2 regions, and using linear regression to calculate how much impact the grants had on the Coalition vote. The verdict: absolutely none whatsoever.
Victoria
Yeah. I predicted the establishment Democrats would choose Warren. The New York Times endorsed Warren.
I am so out of touch.
Pretty scary to hear Hillary being non-committal about supporting Sanders if he wins the nomination. What happened to ‘vote blue no matter who’? Or are we back to ‘PUMA’?
“All the indications we have are that Sanders appeals to the hard to turn out voters that stayed home in the Clinton campaign. That means Sanders has the best chance of getting that turnout increased.”
Bullshit, and more bullshit. But we’ve been over this before.
I was hoping there would be more discussion here about Bloomberg and Steyer.
guytaur @ #300 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2020 – 4:29 pm
Didn’t they endorse Amy ?
jenauthor @ #285 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2020 – 4:09 pm
and assessed and prioritised on need by an independent panel.
guytaur says: Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 4:28 pm
The older voters will turn out and vote Democrat. The younger ones will turn out and vote Sanders.
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Isn’t that exactly the problem in that it SPLITS the Democratic vote ?????
Kakaru
Yeah the polling showing Sanders in front is BS.
Let alone looking at who Sanders appeals to. All the polls even those that have Biden winning compared to Sanders have Sanders appealing to young hard to turnout voters that stayed home last time.
We know who is doing the BS and its not me.
Shellbell @ #281 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2020 – 4:03 pm
I can see your problem.
PR
No that means the older ones will vote for Sanders if he is the Democrat candidate.
That means increased turnout. That means a better election result than Clinton. Turnout would be higher.
a r
Weird!
Jenauthor
Quite – an application comes with something – an electoral commitment can be initiated by the person seeking election.
A look under the bonnet………….
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/21/crushed-by-brexit-how-labour-lost-the-election
If this is a portent, Gobbo’s evidence on 29 January will be freewheeling and she will be a garrulous and an uncontrollable witness.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/nicola-gobbo-accuses-former-police-boss-of-lying-in-lawyer-x-inquiry-20191230-p53npq.html
Scotty from marketing in a reflective mood.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1219758220886962176
guytaur says: Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 4:33 pm
PR
No that means the older ones will vote for Sanders if he is the Democrat candidate.
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I may be wrong here – Kakuru knows better than me but …..
to the older voters – Socialist = Communist …. the point of what Rick Wilson was saying about older voters
PR
Thats the demonisation assumption.
We saw in Kansas with Sanders campaign rally against “Moscow Mitch” with AOC speaking that the Democrats won the election.
That makes Wilson wrong on the facts as proven by election results. Trump was heavy on the socialism in his Kentucky rally
Edit: Note I am expecting the GOP to win Kentucky even the Senate though I hope McConnell loses.
poroti:
[‘Do you think they would have won with a full on ‘remainer” at the helm ?’]
Hard to judge but the problem for Corbyn was that he had more positions on Brexit than the Karma Sutra. – well, that’s an exaggeration but I think you’ll get my drift. He also had the charisma of a Neil Kinnock.
This is Rick Wilson on the Daily show recently.
He sums up perfectly what the dems need to do.
https://m.facebook.com/thedailyshow/videos/549377722329464/
Victoria
Yeah we get it. The Democrats need to do what Republicans are telling them to do.
Can someone tell me what make Bernie ‘extreme’ in the minds of centrist democrats ?
There is not enough love and laughter in this world.
Here’s someone at least having a go!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1212666760324739076
Just like Labor need to do what the Greens tell them to do.
FS
Yeah Labor did really well in the environment polling today.
Keep hugging that coal Labor.
Mavis
Oh I agree on that but unfortunately the bob each way was forced upon him. It was curtains as soon as the Toff declared “Get Brexit Done” . After so many years of interminable ‘circus Brexit’ there would be plenty of votes in “just make it stop” angle. Let alone all the Labor ‘brexiteer’ voters
guytaur says: Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 4:47 pm
Victoria
Yeah we get it. The Democrats need to do what Republicans are telling them to do.
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I get the impression that ‘never Trumpers’ like Rick Wilson, Steve Schmidt, Joe Scarborough etc etc – HATE Trump with such a passion to the ideals of the GOP Party they have stood for all their political life – that they will do ANYTHING to get rid of Trump – even if it means a Democratic candidate winning in 2020 ….. and then pick up the pieces and ideals of the GOP …..
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/22/our-plan-is-to-stop-the-fires-by-chopping-down-everything-flammable-before-it-burns-marketing-genius?CMP=share_btn_tw
PR
Then they will vote for Bernie Sanders. Cool.
Rex:
That may be the excuse used by “centrist democrats” for not voting for Sen Sanders, but it’s not the real reason.
The real problem “centrist democrats” have with Sen Sanders is not that he’s an “extremist” who scares them, but instead that (having wasted 40 years+) he’s a plonker who won’t be able to to get things done.
Centrist democrats don’t vote on “excitement” but insteads on demonstrated competence, which Sen Sanders lacks.
@climatecouncil
Climate change is making extreme weather worse in Australia, which is already taking its toll on our natural ecosystems, health, economy, & more. These impacts are occurring at 1° warming. We are heading for a world of 3-4°. We must act now, or the impacts will be ‘unimaginable’. https://twitter.com/climatecouncil/status/1219861879645818880/video/1
FDOTM’s latest cartoon
Our plan is to stop the fires by chopping down everything flammable BEFORE it burns. Marketing genius!
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/22/our-plan-is-to-stop-the-fires-by-chopping-down-everything-flammable-before-it-burns-marketing-genius
PhoenixRed
Yep. Never trumpers know what’s at stake.
phoenixRED @ #326 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2020 – 4:57 pm
They talk a good fight. But, their solution is do it our way or lose. Democrats have won elections before and are pursuing their own agenda with their own candidates saying the usual Democrat stuff. So, these never Trumpers either have to get on board with the Democrat agenda or not vote.
I suppose they could show the Dems a demographic that will come with them beyond the confines of MSM broadcasting.
guytaur says: Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 4:59 pm
PR
Then they will vote for Bernie Sanders. Cool.
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I am NOT arguing with you as such, Guytaur ……just giving alterative opinions
Its early days – Lets just see what happens as the year progresses ………………… 🙂
GG
Yes. Bloomberg has put his money on the table. He has stated he will continue to use his money for the Democrats whoever wins the nomination.
That means if Sanders wins the nomination he will have Bloomberg’s money at work for him in the campaign.
Thats the Democrat Billionaire view. You can’t get much clearer.
To ease the minds of the DTTs of this world.
Allyson Horn
@allysonhorn
#BREAKING: Lab tests show the Brisbane man who fell ill upon returning from Wuhan in Central China, does not have the Coronavirus.
@abcnews
@abcbrisbane
Parliament is back on 4 February. The next Newspoll is due within a fortnight.
GG, well then, I hope to heaven it’s not ebola!
PR
I am still not predicting. I am just stating some facts to counter the bias against Sanders on this blog.
Especially from those quoting GOP figures on how the Democrats win the election.
My gamble or guess not a prediction is still the establishment is going to get behind Warren.
They have already started. It was about the time Warren started falling in the polls when she flip flopped on Medicare losing some progressive voters and not gaining in competing against the other candidates.
I still think Biden is not going to win the nomination. Especially if its a brokered convention with Sanders doing so strongly in California.
@nytclimate tweets
Australia’s biggest coal miner, BHP, said coal output was down at one of its large mines. The reason? Smoke from the country’s ferocious wildfires — a crisis fed by climate change, which is caused in no small part by the burning of coal. https://nyti.ms/38BBk8X
Fulvio Sammut @ #338 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2020 – 5:10 pm
That’s the one that was going to kill $24 billion people even though the total human population is about 6 or 7 bill.
We dodged a spit with that one, eh!
No one has provided commentary on the Republican presidential candidate contest. Surely some sane Republicans will try?
Spence
Joe Walsh is trying. If you want to know more he was on Real Time with Bill Maher along with Andrew Yang.
PhoenixRed
Wilsons interview with Trevor Noah of the daily show is instructive in my view.
guytaur says: Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 5:10 pm
PR
I am still not predicting. I am just stating some facts to counter the bias against Sanders on this blog.
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Guytaur – you and – especially Nicholas – have put the farm on Bernie Sanders – winning the Democratic nomination and becoming the next US President …..
Lets just see what pans out ……. 🙂
Richard Dennis
No one job is worth saving at the expense of climate catastrophe. Not even Scott Morrison’s
Promising Australia won’t tackle the climate crisis unless every coal worker’s job is safe is a cruel hoax designed to conceal inaction
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/22/no-one-job-is-worth-saving-at-the-expense-of-climate-catastrophe-not-even-scott-morrisons
Spence @ #342 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2020 – 5:13 pm
Google’s your friend. Get back to us when you have done some research.
PR
Nah I have not put the farm on Sanders. I have just put the case for how Sanders can win.
I have posted some polling showing Sanders in front. These are facts. Not my opinion.
My opinion is that the nominee will be either Biden Warren or Sanders. Thats according to them all being tied at the front for most of the polling of the last year.
Buttiegieg was there until recently falling into single digits.
@guardian tweets
If defending life on Earth is extremist, we must own that label | George Monbiot https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/22/defending-life-earth-extremist-police-extinction-rebellion?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1579673904
There is no comment here on the above poll. It says that the environment is now of primary concern to the electorate, but that NO group thinks that Labor is preferred to address this. Younger people in this category say the Greens, whilst older environment conscious voters cite the as Coalition best able to address their concerns – the Coalition FFS!
This issue has dominated the vitriolic conversation here for months. Why are frednk, BW, RI et al, now all so silent?