Poll respondents with attitudes

New poll results from around the place on attitudes towards climate change, Australia Day and things-in-general.

An off week in the fortnightly cycles for both Newspoll and Essential Research, but we do have three fairly detailed sets of attitudinal polling doing the rounds:

• Ipsos has results from its monthly Issues Monitor series, which records a dramatic escalation in concern about the environment. Asked to pick the three most salient out of 19 listed issues, 41% chose the environment, more than any other. This was up ten on last month’s survey, and compares with single digit results that were not uncommonly recorded as recently as 2015. Cost of living and health care tied for second on 31%, respectively down three and up six on last month. The economy was up one to 25%, and crime down one to 21%. On “party most capable to manage environmental issues across the generations”, generations up to and including X gave the highest rating to the Greens, towards whom the “boomer” and “builder” generations showed their usual hostility. The poll was conducted online from a sample of 1000.

• A poll by YouGov for the Australian Institute finds 79% expressing concern about climate change, up five since a similar poll in July. This includes 47% who were very concerned, up ten. Among those aged 18 to 34, only around 10% expressed a lack of concern. Fifty-seven per cent said Australia was experiencing “a lot” of climate change impact, up 14%; 67% said climate change was making bushfires worse, with 26% disagreeing; and only 33% felt the Coalition had done a good job “managing the climate crisis” (a potentially problematic turn of phrase for those who did not allow that there was one), compared with 53% who took the contrary view. The poll was conducted January 8 to 12 from a sample of 1200; considerable further detail is available through the full report.

• The Institute of Public Affairs has a poll on Australia Day and political correctness from Dynata, which has also done polling on the other side of the ideological aisle for the aforesaid Australia Institute. This finds 71% agreeing that “Australia Day should be celebrated on January 26” (55% strongly, 16% somewhat), and 68% agreeing Australia had become too politically correct (42% strongly, 26% somewhat). Disagreement with both propositions was at just 11%. A very substantial age effect was evident here, but not for the two further questions relating to pride in Australia, which received enthusiastic responses across the board. I have my doubts about opening the batting on this particular set of questions by asking if respondents were “proud to be an Australian”, which brings Yes Minister to mind. Perhaps the most interesting thing about the poll is the demographic detail on the respondents, who were presumably drawn from an online panel. This shows women were greatly over-represented in the younger cohorts, while the opposite was true among the old; and that the sample included rather too many middle-aged people on low incomes. The results would have been weighted to correct for this, but some of these weightings were doing some fairly heavy lifting (so to speak).

Elsewhere, if you’re a Crikey subscriber you can enjoy my searing expose on the electoral impact of Bridget McKenzie’s sports sports. I particularly hope you appreciate the following line, as it was the fruit of about two days’ work:

When polling booth and sport grants data are aggregated into 2288 local regions designated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, there turns out to be no correlation whatsoever between the amount of funding they received and how much they swung to or against the Coalition.

I worked this out by identifying the approximate target locations of 518 grants, building a dataset recording grant funding and booth-level election swings for each of the ABS’s Statistical Local Area 2 regions, and using linear regression to calculate how much impact the grants had on the Coalition vote. The verdict: absolutely none whatsoever.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,074 comments on “Poll respondents with attitudes”

Comments Page 7 of 42
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  2. Pretty scary to hear Hillary being non-committal about supporting Sanders if he wins the nomination. What happened to ‘vote blue no matter who’? Or are we back to ‘PUMA’?

  3. “All the indications we have are that Sanders appeals to the hard to turn out voters that stayed home in the Clinton campaign. That means Sanders has the best chance of getting that turnout increased.”

    Bullshit, and more bullshit. But we’ve been over this before.

  7. guytaur says: Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 4:28 pm

    The older voters will turn out and vote Democrat. The younger ones will turn out and vote Sanders.

    ********************************************************

    Isn’t that exactly the problem in that it SPLITS the Democratic vote ?????

  8. Kakaru

    Yeah the polling showing Sanders in front is BS.

    Let alone looking at who Sanders appeals to. All the polls even those that have Biden winning compared to Sanders have Sanders appealing to young hard to turnout voters that stayed home last time.

    We know who is doing the BS and its not me.

  10. PR

    No that means the older ones will vote for Sanders if he is the Democrat candidate.

    That means increased turnout. That means a better election result than Clinton. Turnout would be higher.

  16. guytaur says: Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 4:33 pm

    PR

    No that means the older ones will vote for Sanders if he is the Democrat candidate.

    ****************************************************

    I may be wrong here – Kakuru knows better than me but …..

    to the older voters – Socialist = Communist …. the point of what Rick Wilson was saying about older voters

  17. PR

    Thats the demonisation assumption.

    We saw in Kansas with Sanders campaign rally against “Moscow Mitch” with AOC speaking that the Democrats won the election.

    That makes Wilson wrong on the facts as proven by election results. Trump was heavy on the socialism in his Kentucky rally

    Edit: Note I am expecting the GOP to win Kentucky even the Senate though I hope McConnell loses.

  18. poroti:

    [‘Do you think they would have won with a full on ‘remainer” at the helm ?’]

    Hard to judge but the problem for Corbyn was that he had more positions on Brexit than the Karma Sutra. – well, that’s an exaggeration but I think you’ll get my drift. He also had the charisma of a Neil Kinnock.

  25. Mavis

    Hard to judge but the problem for Corbyn was that he had more positions on Brexit than the Karma Sutra. – well, that’s an exaggeration but I think you’ll get my drift.

    Oh I agree on that but unfortunately the bob each way was forced upon him. It was curtains as soon as the Toff declared “Get Brexit Done” . After so many years of interminable ‘circus Brexit’ there would be plenty of votes in “just make it stop” angle. Let alone all the Labor ‘brexiteer’ voters

  26. guytaur says: Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 4:47 pm

    Victoria

    Yeah we get it. The Democrats need to do what Republicans are telling them to do.

    *****************************************************************

    I get the impression that ‘never Trumpers’ like Rick Wilson, Steve Schmidt, Joe Scarborough etc etc – HATE Trump with such a passion to the ideals of the GOP Party they have stood for all their political life – that they will do ANYTHING to get rid of Trump – even if it means a Democratic candidate winning in 2020 ….. and then pick up the pieces and ideals of the GOP …..

  29. Rex:

    Can someone tell me what make Bernie ‘extreme’ in the minds of centrist democrats ?

    That may be the excuse used by “centrist democrats” for not voting for Sen Sanders, but it’s not the real reason.

    The real problem “centrist democrats” have with Sen Sanders is not that he’s an “extremist” who scares them, but instead that (having wasted 40 years+) he’s a plonker who won’t be able to to get things done.

    Centrist democrats don’t vote on “excitement” but insteads on demonstrated competence, which Sen Sanders lacks.

  33. phoenixRED @ #326 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2020 – 4:57 pm

    guytaur says: Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 4:47 pm

    Victoria

    Yeah we get it. The Democrats need to do what Republicans are telling them to do.

    *****************************************************************

    I get the impression that ‘never Trumpers’ like Rick Wilson, Steve Schmidt, Joe Scarborough etc etc – HATE Trump with such a passion to the ideals of the GOP Party they have stood for all their political life – that they will do ANYTHING to get rid of Trump – even if it means a Democratic candidate winning in 2020 ….. and then pick up the pieces and ideals of the GOP …..

    They talk a good fight. But, their solution is do it our way or lose. Democrats have won elections before and are pursuing their own agenda with their own candidates saying the usual Democrat stuff. So, these never Trumpers either have to get on board with the Democrat agenda or not vote.

    I suppose they could show the Dems a demographic that will come with them beyond the confines of MSM broadcasting.

  34. guytaur says: Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 4:59 pm

    PR

    Then they will vote for Bernie Sanders. Cool.

    ******************************************************

    I am NOT arguing with you as such, Guytaur ……just giving alterative opinions

    Its early days – Lets just see what happens as the year progresses ………………… 🙂

  35. GG

    Yes. Bloomberg has put his money on the table. He has stated he will continue to use his money for the Democrats whoever wins the nomination.

    That means if Sanders wins the nomination he will have Bloomberg’s money at work for him in the campaign.

    Thats the Democrat Billionaire view. You can’t get much clearer.

  36. To ease the minds of the DTTs of this world.

    Allyson Horn
    @allysonhorn
    #BREAKING: Lab tests show the Brisbane man who fell ill upon returning from Wuhan in Central China, does not have the Coronavirus.
    @abcnews

    @abcbrisbane

  39. PR

    I am still not predicting. I am just stating some facts to counter the bias against Sanders on this blog.

    Especially from those quoting GOP figures on how the Democrats win the election.

    My gamble or guess not a prediction is still the establishment is going to get behind Warren.

    They have already started. It was about the time Warren started falling in the polls when she flip flopped on Medicare losing some progressive voters and not gaining in competing against the other candidates.

    I still think Biden is not going to win the nomination. Especially if its a brokered convention with Sanders doing so strongly in California.

  40. @nytclimate tweets

    Australia’s biggest coal miner, BHP, said coal output was down at one of its large mines. The reason? Smoke from the country’s ferocious wildfires — a crisis fed by climate change, which is caused in no small part by the burning of coal. https://nyti.ms/38BBk8X

  45. guytaur says: Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 5:10 pm

    PR

    I am still not predicting. I am just stating some facts to counter the bias against Sanders on this blog.

    *********************************************

    Guytaur – you and – especially Nicholas – have put the farm on Bernie Sanders – winning the Democratic nomination and becoming the next US President …..

    Lets just see what pans out ……. 🙂

  46. Richard Dennis

    No one job is worth saving at the expense of climate catastrophe. Not even Scott Morrison’s

    Promising Australia won’t tackle the climate crisis unless every coal worker’s job is safe is a cruel hoax designed to conceal inaction

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/22/no-one-job-is-worth-saving-at-the-expense-of-climate-catastrophe-not-even-scott-morrisons

    Would the prime minister rule out protecting Australians from terrorism if it cost a single job? Would he promise that no nurse, teacher or other public servant would be sacked in pursuit of a budget surplus? Of course not. But when it comes to preventing dangerous climate change, the government whose policies closed the entire Australian car industry claims that every job is sacred. Yeah, right.

    The one thing we can say with certainty about the coal industry is that, regardless of climate policy, automation will decimate coal communities in the coming decade. The coal companies sacked around half their workforce in the late 80s – the minute new technology let them – and the coal industry is gearing up to do it again. Adani promised its proposed Queensland coalmine would be automated “from pit to port” and the rest of the industry is publicly preparing for the same goal.
    :::
    Step one is, of course, to shoot the messenger.
    :::
    Step two is to pull out the straw man. Shutting the coal industry down overnight would be reckless and cause lots of pain for no real gain. The fact that no one, ever, has called for the shutdown of the coal industry overnight makes it a particularly hard fight to lose. But it distracts journalists for just long enough to move things along to step 3. Econobabble.

    If we know one thing about the economy it’s that it changes so frequently and so unexpectedly that it is literally impossible to predict. But even though no economist can accurately predict what the exchange rate or unemployment rate will be in three years’ time, Australian governments have become expert in worrying about what the economy will look like in 30 years’ time.
    :::
    But just as we replaced real science with climate denial, we have replaced real economics with dodgy forecasts and bizarre criteria like protecting every coal job for the next 30 years.

  48. PR

    Nah I have not put the farm on Sanders. I have just put the case for how Sanders can win.

    I have posted some polling showing Sanders in front. These are facts. Not my opinion.

    My opinion is that the nominee will be either Biden Warren or Sanders. Thats according to them all being tied at the front for most of the polling of the last year.

    Buttiegieg was there until recently falling into single digits.

  50. There is no comment here on the above poll. It says that the environment is now of primary concern to the electorate, but that NO group thinks that Labor is preferred to address this. Younger people in this category say the Greens, whilst older environment conscious voters cite the as Coalition best able to address their concerns – the Coalition FFS!

    This issue has dominated the vitriolic conversation here for months. Why are frednk, BW, RI et al, now all so silent?

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