Poll respondents with attitudes

New poll results from around the place on attitudes towards climate change, Australia Day and things-in-general.

An off week in the fortnightly cycles for both Newspoll and Essential Research, but we do have three fairly detailed sets of attitudinal polling doing the rounds:

• Ipsos has results from its monthly Issues Monitor series, which records a dramatic escalation in concern about the environment. Asked to pick the three most salient out of 19 listed issues, 41% chose the environment, more than any other. This was up ten on last month’s survey, and compares with single digit results that were not uncommonly recorded as recently as 2015. Cost of living and health care tied for second on 31%, respectively down three and up six on last month. The economy was up one to 25%, and crime down one to 21%. On “party most capable to manage environmental issues across the generations”, generations up to and including X gave the highest rating to the Greens, towards whom the “boomer” and “builder” generations showed their usual hostility. The poll was conducted online from a sample of 1000.

• A poll by YouGov for the Australian Institute finds 79% expressing concern about climate change, up five since a similar poll in July. This includes 47% who were very concerned, up ten. Among those aged 18 to 34, only around 10% expressed a lack of concern. Fifty-seven per cent said Australia was experiencing “a lot” of climate change impact, up 14%; 67% said climate change was making bushfires worse, with 26% disagreeing; and only 33% felt the Coalition had done a good job “managing the climate crisis” (a potentially problematic turn of phrase for those who did not allow that there was one), compared with 53% who took the contrary view. The poll was conducted January 8 to 12 from a sample of 1200; considerable further detail is available through the full report.

• The Institute of Public Affairs has a poll on Australia Day and political correctness from Dynata, which has also done polling on the other side of the ideological aisle for the aforesaid Australia Institute. This finds 71% agreeing that “Australia Day should be celebrated on January 26” (55% strongly, 16% somewhat), and 68% agreeing Australia had become too politically correct (42% strongly, 26% somewhat). Disagreement with both propositions was at just 11%. A very substantial age effect was evident here, but not for the two further questions relating to pride in Australia, which received enthusiastic responses across the board. I have my doubts about opening the batting on this particular set of questions by asking if respondents were “proud to be an Australian”, which brings Yes Minister to mind. Perhaps the most interesting thing about the poll is the demographic detail on the respondents, who were presumably drawn from an online panel. This shows women were greatly over-represented in the younger cohorts, while the opposite was true among the old; and that the sample included rather too many middle-aged people on low incomes. The results would have been weighted to correct for this, but some of these weightings were doing some fairly heavy lifting (so to speak).

Elsewhere, if you’re a Crikey subscriber you can enjoy my searing expose on the electoral impact of Bridget McKenzie’s sports sports. I particularly hope you appreciate the following line, as it was the fruit of about two days’ work:

When polling booth and sport grants data are aggregated into 2288 local regions designated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, there turns out to be no correlation whatsoever between the amount of funding they received and how much they swung to or against the Coalition.

I worked this out by identifying the approximate target locations of 518 grants, building a dataset recording grant funding and booth-level election swings for each of the ABS’s Statistical Local Area 2 regions, and using linear regression to calculate how much impact the grants had on the Coalition vote. The verdict: absolutely none whatsoever.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,074 comments on “Poll respondents with attitudes”

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  1. @LEANAustralia tweets

    WIth this government, cartoonists have been forced to move from satire to documentaries. For instance: https://twitter.com/lenoretaylor/status/1219861351423565824

    @lenoretaylor tweets

    Our plan is to stop the fires by chopping down everything flammable BEFORE it burns. Marketing genius! | First Dog on the Moon https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/22/our-plan-is-to-stop-the-fires-by-chopping-down-everything-flammable-before-it-burns-marketing-genius?CMP=share_btn_tw

  2. Late news: To raise much needed cash for theatre going firefighters; the parliamentary “Fringe Theate Group”** is intent on a one night only performance of —

    Casting is in the hands of the Minister for Arts and Crafts and currently the leading role “Willie Loman”* is filled while the members of a conga line of seasoned has-beens is under consideration for lesser roles. A well known nation builder has been tentatively pencilled in to take the coveted role of “Linda Loman”.

    More to come on this breaking story. Watch this space.

    *William “Willy” Loman : A self-deluded traveling salesman. He is 63 years old and very unstable and insecure, tending to imagine events from the past as if they are real. He vacillates between different perceptions of his life.

    **Fringe Theatre. Fringe theatre is a form of theatre that is experimental in its style and narrative. …

  3. Lovey
    Nothing new there.
    At all.
    The Greens have locked up the environment vote for the last thirty years.
    So it is not in political play.
    Total waste.
    Peeps have been putting climate high on the list of their concerns for some time now.
    And these same peeps have been very low on their willingness to pay for fixing it.
    If you have any real concerns about reality I suggest you take it up with Wally.
    BTW, just in case you are wondering, tomorrow is an excellent day for a protest.
    So off you go!

  4. Lovey @ #350 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2020 – 5:21 pm

    There is no comment here on the above poll. It says that the environment is now of primary concern to the electorate, but that NO group thinks that Labor is preferred to address this. Younger people in this category say the Greens, whilst older environment conscious voters cite the as Coalition best able to address their concerns – the Coalition FFS!

    This issue has dominated the vitriolic conversation her for months. Why are frednk, BW, RI et al, now all so silent?

    It was allegedly a high priority issue going in to the last Election. Yet people were able to find alternative parties to vote for.

    So, like the blatherers that promise one and all that they will never vote for (Party of dersion) again, people find ways to rationalise voting for candidates that have no interest in dealing with the topic of their allegedly most ardent interest.

    The next Election is years away. I’m unconvinced that anything has actually changed.

  5. Lovey

    Indeed. I did a couple of posts this morning about the Ipsos poll with statistics highlighting what you again mention, as did bakunin around 2pm . No response from the usual suspects. Unsurprising.

  6. Lovey

    Younger people in this category say the Greens, whilst older environment conscious voters cite the as Coalition best able to address their concerns – the Coalition FFS!

    Where do you get this from?

  10. lizzie….re-eposted

    Ipsos Survey

    https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/environment-now-trumps-economy-on-australian-list-of-biggest-worries-20200121-p53td7.html

    Unsurprisingly, younger Australians are the most worried, with 48 per cent of Millennials and 45 per cent of Gen Z’ers putting the environment on their top three list.

    But concern among older people is catching up, with 42 per cent of Baby Boomers also putting it on their list and 30 per cent of “Builders”, aged over 73.
    :::
    Participants were asked which political party they felt was best able to address their environmental concerns.

    Generation X, Millenials and Gen Z’ers ranked the Greens highest, while Baby Boomer and Builders nominated the Coalition.

    No age cohort put Labor first to manage the environment.
    :::
    “A relatively high proportion of younger Australians did not know which party was most capable and a relatively high number of older Australians believed that none of them were capable.”

  11. @CanberraAirport tweets

    Please be advised, no flights have been affected. Please allow additional time to get to the airport and keep an eye on @ACTPol_Traffic for traffic updates. https://twitter.com/ACTPol_Traffic/status/1219858198640775168

    @ACTpol_traffic tweets

    FIRE ; Please be advised there is a Bush Fire on Sherger drive Fairbairn (near airport). Multiple ACTFB, ACTRFS and NSW Fire Units are attending. The fire is moving fast and there are multiple road closures in the area. Please avoid the area. Local road blocks in place.

  12. lizzie….re-posting

    More Ipsos results:

    * agree that this is a wake-up call for the world on the impacts of climate
    change (72%)

    * agree that governments should mobilise all of society to tackle climate
    change, like they mobilised everyone during the world wars (66%)

    * More Australians agree than disagree that mining and burning coal makes
    bushfires worse (48% v 34%)

  14. Peg

    Thanks, but that was also mentioned in William’s summary at the top. He didn’t make it quite as positive for the Coalition.

    However, I rather like this bit that you quoted:

    “A relatively high proportion of younger Australians did not know which party was most capable and a relatively high number of older Australians believed that none of them were capable.”

  15. Briefly:

    Equinor….Norwegian company specialised in monetising fossil oil. We can make a contribution to Norway’s SWF.

    The oil and (in particular) gas drillers are going to throw the coal miners to the wolves (shoot the wounded, so to speak) and Statoil / Equinor will lead the way on this.

  16. Mungo

    Morrison’s numerous apologists assure us that it will be washed away when – if – the fires are actually extinguished, but there is a far grimmer possibility, which is that the Murdoch columnist Graham Richardson’s constant refrain is coming true: the mob has found him out, that our leader has final been exposed as a double-dyed phony, superficially mouthing profundities but deep down hopelessly shallow.

    This is the way it looks from where I sit; I have watched all the 30 prime ministers since Menzies and I have never seen one so inadequate. Billy McMahon may have been more risible, but even he had a version of economics and policy and usually tried to implement a coherent free enterprise agenda. Morrison offers nothing but daggy dad clichés, mendacity and evasion.

    There is no point in accusing him of insincerity – he has nothing to be either sincere or insincere about.

    https://johnmenadue.com/mungo-maccallum-the-mob-has-found-him-out/

  18. Greensborough Growler @ #332 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2020 – 4:03 pm

    But, their solution is do it our way or lose.

    To be fair, that’s everyone’s solution. And not just in politics either.

    Ever try asking finance people for advice on an investment? Every single one will be absolutely positive that their thing is great and literally anybody else’s strategy is a surefire path to financial ruin. At most one of them could be right; though far more likely that all of them are wrong and that most strategies are more-or-less as okay as any other if done properly.

  20. I see Greta wiped the floor with Donald at the WEF today. Brilliant.

    Donald clearly not on top of what has happened here in Australia the last few months. What a disgrace he is.

  21. Avril
    @DocAvvers
    ·
    1m
    Drafting my response to the #ReligiousDiscriminationBill and am utterly terrified at how many times I’m quoting the RUDDOCK review. Philip Ruddock, a source of sanity? 1990s me would not have believed it.

  22. Ambulance Vic is investigating the way my situation was handled on Saturday night. They’ve already apologised to me, but are still looking into it. I just don’t want it to happen to anyone else.

  23. a r @ #368 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2020 – 5:44 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #332 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2020 – 4:03 pm

    But, their solution is do it our way or lose.

    To be fair, that’s everyone’s solution. And not just in politics either.

    Ever try asking finance people for advice on an investment? Every single one will be absolutely positive that their thing is great and literally anybody else’s strategy is a surefire path to financial ruin. At most one of them could be right; though far more likely that all of them are wrong and that most strategies are more-or-less as okay as any other if done properly.

    As a commited Christian, I’ve seen my fair share of Prophets propagating their unique views of life, the true way to Grace and the road to Salvation. Lets’s just say I’m not buying on what has been presented by these GOP renegades.

  25. GG

    I find it excruciating when Trump cocks his head to one side in that Uriah Heep way he has, and professes some sort of religious attitude to the world. The hypocrisy is sick-making.

  26. Bruce Guthrie
    @brucerguthrie
    ·
    4m
    Channel Nine announcer just introduced John Millman’s Polish opponent as a “Polak”. Maybe it’s time for cultural awareness sessions at the network. #AusOpen

  28. GG

    Don’t be so superior. Trump is a person I simply avoid as much as poss, but unfortunately I occasionally get caught by a news item.

  29. Paul Barratt
    @phbarratt
    ·
    6m
    Timing of retirement cannot be coincidence.

    She has some pretty interesting questions to answer about her own role in this – don’t think her behaviour would stack up very well against duties of Secretaries as I understand them – eg duty to advise Min she’s acting beyond power.

    ***
    Bernard Keane
    @BernardKeane
    · 9h
    Beauchamp is both Secretary of Health and a board member of the Sports Commission. Very convenient that she will not be able to be asked any questions about sports rorts at Senate estimates.

  31. lizzie @ #378 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2020 – 6:14 pm

    GG

    Don’t be so superior. Trump is a person I simply avoid as much as poss, but unfortunately I occasionally get caught by a news item.

    It’s not being superior that I’m talking about.

    I try and focus on the things I can control in life. Frippery about Trump’s posture is not something that is either important to me or something I’m likely to influence. So, I really don’t care.

  33. steve davis @ #380 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2020 – 6:18 pm

    Just been on 7 News that the Red Cross charity is only going to drip feed money to bushfire victims over the next 3 years.

    The whole Emergency Charity stuff is a boondoggle for fraudsters and careerists. Jeff kennett was speaking about this today and he is right. Things like Forrests $50 mill to a self controlled charity providing services far removed from helping people that have had their lives devastatted by the Bushfires is a concern. But, that’s not the only one. Government needs to get on top of this and I’m looking at Morrison and the States to get it sorted quickly.

  34. Steve Davis,

    Sounds a bit like the Morrison government drip feeding the $2 billion it has promised over the next three years of the forwards ( and going on past form into the outer years ).

    Interesting how Morrison and co respond.

  37. You have to give it to Greg the Lyin’ Hunt, he has how to spin a rort down to a fine art…

    “ Full sails for McCrae Yacht Club
    The McCrae Yacht Club will receive a welcome boost to its upgrade plans after securing $147,000 through round two of the Federal Government’s Community Sport Infrastructure Grants program.

    The funding will allow the club to proceed with plans to improve disability access, install additional female facilities and undergo expansion to improve participation.

    Federal Member for Flinders, the Hon. Greg Hunt MP said this grant would help the club to significantly expand its capacity to help locals be more active.

    “McCrae Yacht Club has been a staple of Port Phillip Bay since 1961, running learn to sail programs, social activities, as well as hosting state, national and international championships,” Minister Hunt said.

    https://www.greghunt.com.au/full-sails-for-mccrae-yacht-club/

  38. Morrison should have instigated his ‘investigation’ before his helpful band of MPs came out to support her. Now they’ll feel he’s dropped them in it.

  39. And out in the Blue Mountains, 2 weeks before the election (wasn’t there something about Caretaker Convention?), along comes Bridget and she pony’s up for the ponies…

  48. lizzie:

    Morrison should have instigated his ‘investigation’ before his helpful band of MPs came out to support her. Now they’ll feel he’s dropped them in it.

    Mr Morrison would agree with your logic, but he drew a different conclusion.


  50. There is no comment here on the above poll. It says that the environment is now of primary concern to the electorate, but that NO group thinks that Labor is preferred to address this. Younger people in this category say the Greens!

    This issue has dominated the vitriolic conversation her for months. Why are frednk, BW, RI et al, now all so silent?

    An indication surly of the damage done by the Greens. Stunts don’t equal action.

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