Patriot games

Evidence a large majority opposes changing the date of Australia Day, even without the IPA’s thumb on the scales.

First up, please note that immediately below this post is a new entry on developments in Queensland, which include one and possibly two looming state by-elections. With that out of the way, a brief collection of polling and preselection news:

• In the wake of a contentious poll on the subject for the Institute of Public Affairs, The West Australian has published a WA-only survey on attitudes towards celebrating Australia Day on January 26, conducted by Perth market research firm Painted Dog Research. This found 65% support for maintaining the current date with 21% opposed, breaking down to 55-26 among those aged 18 to 39, 67-20 among those 40 to 59, and 78-14 among those 60 and over. Although substantial, the headline figure is narrower than the 71-11 margin recorded by the Dynata poll for the IPA, which primed respondents with two leading questions on being proud of Australia. This poll was conducted from 842 respondents drawn from an online panel, with no field work dates provided.

• Cory Bernardi has followed through on his announcement last year that he would resign to the Senate, which means his South Australian seat returns to a nominee of the Liberal Party, for which he won the seat from the top of the ticket at the 2016 double dissolution. The Australian ($) reports the matter will be decided on February 1, from a field including Morry Bailes, managing partner at Tindall Gask Bentley Lawyers and former president of the Law Council of Australia; state upper house MP Andrew McLachlan; and Michael van Dissel, former state party treasurer. Bailes has the support of conservatives including Mathias Cormann and South Australian federal MPs Tony Pasin and Nicolle Flint, which is presumably good to have.

• Heavy duty psephological pundit Mark the Ballot examines the deficiencies of polling before the May federal election, to the extent that the industry’s lack of transparency makes the matter knowable. The thrust of the analysis is that the pollsters’ models were “not complex enough to adequately overcome the sampling frame problems”, the latter reflecting the fact that surveying methods in the modern age cannot plausibly claim to produce genuinely random samples of the voting population. As well as the models by which the pollsters convert their data into vote shares, this lack of “complexity” may equally arise from herding, the unacknowledged use of smoothing techniques such as rolling averages, and over-use of the same respondents in online panels.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,257 comments on “Patriot games”

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  1. Ambivalent about Australia Day being Jan 26. Not so much as that fact those call it Invasion Day but it was when NSW was discovered. The rest, those other than New South Welshmen, couldn’t give a stuff. If you ever travel overseas all you ever hear is “your Australian, from Sydney?”. Says a lot that our biggest city, in a few years to be overtaken by Melbourne, is the picture in most minds. We don’t need to promote Sydney, we need to promote all those other gems we have.

    A more appropriate day is January 1st as that is when we came together as one country. But I know that won’t happen.

  3. Boerwar @ #50 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 8:57 am

    Firefox says:
    Sunday, January 26, 2020 at 8:13 am

    “Are you swallowing Sandersguff?”

    ***

    Mate did you even bother to read the article you linked to?’

    From the article: ‘Basically, Hitler didn’t win those [elections]…’

    I read the article. Hitler didn’t “win” any elections in much the same way the Liberals didn’t “win” the last Federal election … oh, wait … 🙁

  6. “From the article: ‘Basically, Hitler didn’t win those [elections]…”

    ***

    Why not quote the rest of it?

    Deutsche Welle spoke with historian Mark Roseman, a professor of modern European and German history at Indiana University in Bloomington. According to Roseman, there were five German elections in 1932. And if you look at the national parliamentary elections, what Sanders said makes sense.

    DW: Is Bernie Sanders, and those who are re-tweeting his comment, wrong about their history?

    Mark Roseman: I think in fact Bernie Sanders is not wrong. But of course it’s more complicated than that. There were actually five major elections in 1932. There were two presidential elections; there were two national elections; and there was a big Prussian election. But what people are talking about are the two national elections, the elections for parliament.

    So, who won the 1932 national parliamentary elections in Germany?

    Basically, Hitler didn’t win those [elections] outright. In the German system nobody won outright. It was always going to be a coalition. But what he did do was, he got a huge share of the vote, more than any other parties by a million miles. It was a landslide victory in that sense.

    No party had done anywhere near as well as the Nazis did in the summer of 1932. So to that extent, they were the obvious party of government, because they were the party that had done massively better than anybody else.

    The complexity is that it then obviously required more steps to actually become the governing party. They would have to be in a coalition, because they hadn’t gotten more than 50 percent of the votes or the seats. And it also then depended on the president to invite someone to form the new government.

    Hitler didn’t win the parliamentary elections like you would in a winner-take-all system like in the US. But the Nazis did become the largest party?

    By far the largest party. They had 230 seats in the elections in July and 196 seats in the elections in November. The total number of seats varied because the number seats elected was in direct proportion to the number of people who voted. So if more people vote, you have more seats.

    In the June elections, there were a little over 600 seats. They had around 40 percent of the vote on their own right. So they were amazingly successful.

    They were successful also in the sense that they drew their support from everywhere. From Catholics and Protestants, from town and country, from rich and poor. Men and women as well. Young and old.

    They were the first party that really made a national breakthrough. They stopped being a party of a particular group. They were a real national party.

    …

    To argue that he [Hitler] received a level of support that made him the legitimate government and by the standards established of who would be invited to the office, it would be the Nazis. That’s incontestable.

    https://www.dw.com/en/fact-or-fiction-adolf-hitler-won-an-election-in-1932/a-18680673

  7. Cud Chewer @ #2011 Saturday, January 25th, 2020 – 9:06 pm

    ….

    Anyhow lots more I could say. I just think its time for Labor as an organisation to realise it needs to rethink its strategy and stop trying to win the same war over and over. It needs to reach out to voters and actually change hearts and minds, starting with educating them on what is actually in their own selfish best interest. Educating them that there is no Government Budgetary Constraint (ie: we have to tax in order to raise revenue) is perhaps a step too far. But simply things like repeatedly telling people that a dollar spent on a university comes back to the economy twenty fold. Things like telling people that the NBN that the Liberals wasted 50 billion dollars on is temporary and will have to be scrapped and replaced. This and many other simple and obvious points of fact that it needs to get out there.

    I think there’s just too many caucus members who either simply don’t have political talent/expertise or are just the sock puppets of party donors or interest groups. This is the result of being a closed shop open only to union hacks.

    To become an effective well run Govt for the population and environment, Labor needs to open up beyond the unions to the wider social democratic minded.

  8. Professor John Cole OAM
    @ProfJohnCole
    · 13h
    Disappointing to see fear campaign against using recycled water in SEQ water supply if needed; this well proven safe option delivered by advanced technology should not be demonised for cheap political point scoring #qldpol @AnnastaciaMP @DebFrecklington @LGAQ @Seqwater @SEQMayors

  9. CanJoh would have got his gong for services to the Developer Spivs and Tunnel Boring communities. At the end even the Courier Mail started running horror stories about the malarky.

  10. With respect to Australia Day, Scotty from Marketing’s focus groups must be telling him that peeps are sick of political discord and political divisions. Further, that peeps like the notion of peeps pulling together and helping each other during the fires emergency. That is regarded as the Strayan Way.
    So, we got but one tiny dog whistle on dress codes which was not followed up. And then Scotty calling for national unity.

    In that context, Arndt is an excellent choice for inveigling the extreme Lefties into choking on their zucchini frittata, and making THEM look they are inciting division and hatred. The notion that only correct-thinking Left extremists deserve national awards is interesting, to say the least.

    OH and I were observing the various nominations and picking winners and losers before the winners were announced. Climate, environmenatal and Indigenous activists could all pack their bags.
    Medicos and youth workers were a safe bet as long as they worked in a way that could not possibly be construed as a criticism of Scotty from Marketing.

  13. Lynda Clarey @ #2031 Saturday, January 25th, 2020 – 9:32 pm

    I worked in the NDIS as a support coordinator essentially to broker services to achieve the clients goals. I also advocated for those stranded in small federally funded mental health programs to be given access. The NDIS staff at that time were clueless about many disabilities particularly psychosocial ones and rejected many deserving folk. One example a depressed woman with schizophrenia was asked why she couldn’t get out of bed, shower and clean her home. She replied she couldn’t and was told but you could if you wanted to. Depressed and devalued a decent person even more. The bastardisation of the NDIS to give the government a surplus is the worst I’ve seen in 35 years of health and community service.

    This is the abhorrent and bordering of criminal negligence as a result of the neo-lib mindset of our polity.

    How can voters allow this within their own community ..???

  16. Sunday Gripe: why do boxes of laundry powder still come with unnecessary plastic scoops? Surely by now people are quite capable of finding something in their house that can be used to scoop out the required amount of detergent?

  17. I should add that Scotty from Marketing’s focus groups must be telling him some interesting messages about how certain female cohorts regard his attitude to women. McKenzie’s forthcoming demise is not helping here. The major hacks in the Coalition: BBishop, JBishop, Ley, a slew of women bastardized during the Morrison elevation, and now the McKenzie scorching, seem disproportionately to happen to hapless Coalition femmes.
    Ergo, apart from rewarding third rate and meretricious party hacks, lots of gongs for #Metoo kinds of women, and up pops Arndt to balance the #Metoo books.

  18. So, Hitler ‘won’ the elections by not winning the elections. Only on Bludger!
    Did Hitler ever gain more than 40% of the German vote?
    Now, had he gained 51% of the vote he would have won the elections.

  19. Perhaps CanJoh got the gong for service to the Dentist Fraternity-
    income division ?

    Queensland: The toothless state could well one of former LNP leader Campbell Newman’s key achievements, after he, among a litany of controversial decisions in his three years at the state’s helm between 2012 and 2014, decided to dump mandated statewide water fluoridation.

    Mr Newman announced the move in his first year as Queensland premier, placing the decision to fluoridate water in the hands of local governments.

    In the ensuing four years, the state’s councils have abandoned the mineral additive en masse.

    There’s never been a better time to be a Queensland dentist.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/queensland-councils-abandon-water-fluoridation-en-masse-against-dentists-advice/news-story/650843eb023af9c562e12a865af4394b

  20. The RWNJs and the establishment centrists will form a Kill Bernie cartel as we enter the home straight.

    Bernie will be systematically demonised to within an inch of his life.

    It will be a miracle if he prevails.

  21. Boerwar

    Thank fuck Maggie Thatcher’s tories never won an election eh . Her top effort was 43% and it was all down hill from there.

  22. I actually don’t give much of a fig about who wins the Dem primaries as long as that whoever it is thrashes Trump, wins the House and wins the Senate.
    Trumps assault on the US environment is not limited to climate smashing. Every single Fed regulatory framework is being gutted to allow in the rapers and pillagers at the expense of biodiversity.

    As for Sanders requiring a ‘miracle’ to do the job.
    Ahem.

  23. p
    I think we can agree that Hitler never won an election, that he never got more than 40% of those who actually voted, and that the Nazis never had a parliamentary majority and that therefore Sanders was wrong on this one minor element.

  24. Boerwar @ #68 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 9:27 am

    So, Hitler ‘won’ the elections by not winning the elections. Only on Bludger!
    Did Hitler ever gain more than 40% of the German vote?
    Now, had he gained 51% of the vote he would have won the elections.

    Considering this is a psephology site, you are being deliberately obtuse. Hitler won the most seats. It was actually described in the article as a “landslide” victory. He formed government as a result. In what sense is this not a “win”?

    Here is what the article actually says about whether Sanders is right or wrong:

    DW: Is Bernie Sanders, and those who are re-tweeting his comment, wrong about their history?
    Mark Roseman: I think in fact Bernie Sanders is not wrong. But of course it’s more complicated than that.

    Just a little too complicated for you, apparently.

  25. ..In the wake of a contentious poll on the subject for the Institute of Public Affairs, The West Australian has published a WA-only survey on attitudes towards celebrating Australia Day on January 26, conducted by Perth market research firm Painted Dog Research. This found 65% support for maintaining the current date with 21% opposed..

    If this is a reflection of the attitudes of the broader public, then it’s a very depressing situation.

    The resistance to changing the date shows an intolerance and selfish mindset, in my opinion.

  27. “So, Hitler ‘won’ the elections by not winning the elections. Only on Bludger!
    Did Hitler ever gain more than 40% of the German vote?
    Now, had he gained 51% of the vote he would have won the elections.”

    ***

    So therefore, Gillard didn’t win in 2010 because Labor didn’t win a majority of the vote, nowhere near it, so therefore they didn’t win, according to Boer’s logic. Hell, not even Kevin 07 won, as Labor’s primary vote was still short of an absolute majority. Boer logic.

    Scott Morrison didn’t even win the 2019 election! The Liberal Party did not win an outright majority on their own, so this means they lost, according to Boer.

  28. Boerwar,
    You are trying to convince Greens, who think that gaining 10 per cent of the vote is #Winning because they get the Balance of Power. :/

  30. Boerwar @ #73 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 9:36 am

    p
    I think we can agree that Hitler never won an election, that he never got more than 40% of those who actually voted, and that the Nazis never had a parliamentary majority and that therefore Sanders was wrong on this one minor element.

    I admire your talent to totally enmesh the flailing lefties and assorted Greens of the blog in another logic trap.

    It reminds me of that mathematical game where you approach a particular point by halving the distance between you and the point. This can be done infinitely and you will theoretically never actually reach the point. However, like Hitler’s non victory you get close enough for all practical purposes.

  31. Most European democracies use a form of proportional representation. It is rare for anyone to win an outright majority.

    If we had PR in Australia, our House of Reps would have returned something like the following in 2019:

    62 Coalition, assuming that they ran as a block
    50 Labor
    16 Green
    6 UAP
    5 One Nation

    That adds up to 139 / 150 seats.

    Other Groups and independents got about 8% between them but no one over 1%. They probably would have been excluded. This would have bumped up Labor by 4 to 54, Coalition by 5 to 67, Greens by 1 to 17, One UAP by 1 to 7. In fact UAP and One Nation would have been excluded in many polities.

    So Liberal-National-UAP-PHON Coalition anyone? (67+7+5 = 79/150).

  32. Confessions @ #64 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 9:23 am

    Sunday Gripe: why do boxes of laundry powder still come with unnecessary plastic scoops? Surely by now people are quite capable of finding something in their house that can be used to scoop out the required amount of detergent?

    You’re right, I always manage to find one of those handy little plastic scoops that come in boxes of powder laying around somewhere…..

  35. January 1st can’t possibly be considered for Australia day – it is a celebration of a constitution based on race which deliberately excluded the custodians of the land

  39. P1

    ‘Because he has a certain fascination for those on the right..’

    He should also have a certain fascination for those on the left, as a study in how to prevent evil.

    Germany of the 1930s was generally regarded as one of the most progressive, educated countries on the planet.

    Understanding how a Hitler can flourish in such an environment is essential if we’re not to repeat the mistakes of the past.

    Shutting down such discussions with cries of ‘Godwin!’ or whatever (including dismissing anyone talking about Hitler as necessarily of the right) is very, very dangerous.

  40. Greensborough Growler
    says:
    Sunday, January 26, 2020 at 10:13 am
    A professor who advocates for sex with robots and ran as a candidate for Fraser Anning’s far-right micro-party at the May election
    _______________________________
    Nothing worse than robotic sex.

  41. lizzie @ #83 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 10:05 am

    Why do so many political discussions seem to end with Hitler?

    Thank you for your question.

    After extensive consultation with scientists and that – including the “Federal Department of Making Up Stuff” – the inescapable conclusion is that –

    As a result of Antarctic Ice melting because of lack of clearing of undergrowth and back burning curtailed by Leftie rabble rousers – (I once knew a bloke had a trotter named “Rebel Rouser”) —

    The immense ice cavern wherein Mr. A. Hitler has been preparing to make a political comeback has now been exposed and the transmitters are now beaming clever stuff into the wild – this accounts for the right leaning gummins currently being elected (and rightly so).

    Here endeth the lesson.

    The choir will now sing “Nearer my God to Thee” the first and third verses. Thenkew.😇

    Answer 2 — William is encouraging Hitler discussion so as to drive rational posters away to do something usefull – so the previously mentions William can have a day off.

  42. From January 2019. Megalogenis.

    We spent the last half of the 20th century trying to heal the foundation scars of federation, by counting Aboriginal Australians in the census, giving back some of their stolen land, and moving to a colour-blind immigration program. The challenge of the 21st century is that the unfinished business of the past is colliding with divisions we have not known before, between a nation that draws its strength from the youth of its local and global neighbours, and a nation that is prematurely ageing.

    There is no comparable period in our settler history when our major population centres diverged in this way. Australasia is re-creating a form of the diversity that existed on January 25, 1788, the day before the captain of the First Fleet (and our first governor), Arthur Phillip, established an open-air prison at Sydney Cove with the detritus of “the Old Country”. The convicts and their guards had no way of knowing this, but there were more than 500 Indigenous nations across the continent, many with unique languages, cultures and belief systems.

    To find a common voice which speaks to the Eurasian capitals of Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra, the Pacific capital of Brisbane, the Anglo capital of Perth and the cities, towns and regions of old Australia, we need to shift the conversation beyond who we were to who we’ve always been – the most welcoming people on earth. Each new wave raises the fear in the local population that the country is being taken from them. That was certainly true in 1788, which is why January 26 will continue to divide us.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australasia-rising-who-we-are-becoming-20190122-p50ssx.html

  44. Boerwar

    It was a general observation, not specific to this morning.

    zoomster may have the reason as to why we keep coming back to him. This is a worrying time.

    Germany of the 1930s was generally regarded as one of the most progressive, educated countries on the planet.
    Understanding how a Hitler can flourish in such an environment is essential if we’re not to repeat the mistakes of the past.

  45. zoomster @ #89 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 10:15 am

    P1

    ‘Because he has a certain fascination for those on the right..’

    He should also have a certain fascination for those on the left, as a study in how to prevent evil.

    Yes, I agree. But that is an academic interest, not the same obsessive kind of fascination. You don’t (for instance) see many from the left running around in Nazi uniforms, or with swastikas tattooed on their bodies.

  46. zoomster @ #89 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 7:15 am

    Germany of the 1930s was generally regarded as one of the most progressive, educated countries on the planet.

    Germany of the 1930s was a complete basket case. The nastiness of the Treaty Of Versailles combined with the Great Depression pushed the country to the brink of civil war. There were street battles going on all over the country.

    Then along came an Austrian former Corporal who promised to “Make Germany Great Again”. The rest as they say, is history.

  50. Firefox says:
    Sunday, January 26, 2020 at 7:49 am

    …”It should also never be forgotten that Adolf Hitler was democratically elected by the German people”…

    ……………………………

    Did you learn this from the same grade 9 history text which taught you that Captain Cook discovered Australia?

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