First up, please note that immediately below this post is a new entry on developments in Queensland, which include one and possibly two looming state by-elections. With that out of the way, a brief collection of polling and preselection news:
• In the wake of a contentious poll on the subject for the Institute of Public Affairs, The West Australian has published a WA-only survey on attitudes towards celebrating Australia Day on January 26, conducted by Perth market research firm Painted Dog Research. This found 65% support for maintaining the current date with 21% opposed, breaking down to 55-26 among those aged 18 to 39, 67-20 among those 40 to 59, and 78-14 among those 60 and over. Although substantial, the headline figure is narrower than the 71-11 margin recorded by the Dynata poll for the IPA, which primed respondents with two leading questions on being proud of Australia. This poll was conducted from 842 respondents drawn from an online panel, with no field work dates provided.
• Cory Bernardi has followed through on his announcement last year that he would resign to the Senate, which means his South Australian seat returns to a nominee of the Liberal Party, for which he won the seat from the top of the ticket at the 2016 double dissolution. The Australian ($) reports the matter will be decided on February 1, from a field including Morry Bailes, managing partner at Tindall Gask Bentley Lawyers and former president of the Law Council of Australia; state upper house MP Andrew McLachlan; and Michael van Dissel, former state party treasurer. Bailes has the support of conservatives including Mathias Cormann and South Australian federal MPs Tony Pasin and Nicolle Flint, which is presumably good to have.
• Heavy duty psephological pundit Mark the Ballot examines the deficiencies of polling before the May federal election, to the extent that the industry’s lack of transparency makes the matter knowable. The thrust of the analysis is that the pollsters’ models were “not complex enough to adequately overcome the sampling frame problems”, the latter reflecting the fact that surveying methods in the modern age cannot plausibly claim to produce genuinely random samples of the voting population. As well as the models by which the pollsters convert their data into vote shares, this lack of “complexity” may equally arise from herding, the unacknowledged use of smoothing techniques such as rolling averages, and over-use of the same respondents in online panels.
Simon Katich
“G can sometimes be the Scarlet Pimpernel of point making.”
I haven’t seen anything other than Sir Percy Blakeney. 😉
FredNK
Read Ian Verrender at the ABC.
Coal has no future
poroti:
Tuesday, January 28, 2020 at 4:38 pm
Joh and Piggy – what a double, though I don’t think Joh imbibed.
Three things.
1. Daisy.
2. No Jar Jar Binx
3. Daisy
Lord Percy Percy?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/28/greyhound-cuts-ties-with-adani-mine-after-backlash-from-climate-activists
If Ardern is defeated then the human race is beyond salvation.
“ Coal has no future”
So, no coal fired power stations in … 5 minutes time? … Or tomorrow? … or next year? … how about in 5 years? No coal then? 10 years? 20 years? 30 years?
When does this ‘no future’ actually start?
Greta has nailed her colours to the mast in her second Davos address: now means now. Which I am sure is fine for those wealthy enough to make do on their own private means. Or those who live in a country with sufficient nuclear, or hydro, or renewable to make now mean now.
Those living in poor counties rises that have already committed to thermal coal over the next 30-50 years (at least as part of their overall energy mix) can obviously go and get fucked. Silly poors.
In my most Pollyanna moments I still think ‘we’ (by which I mean the whole world – not just individuals or selected countries) may be able to land an actual zero emissions (not just net zero emissions) sometime in the next 50 years (maybe net zero emissions by 2050).
The shame of that is, as P1 points out – it will be too late.
If 3-5% of the worlds population dies of the Spanish flu in 1918 wouldn’t that equate to 235-390m now?
Wow.
lizzie @ #1506 Tuesday, January 28th, 2020 – 4:52 pm
It’s not nearly as brazen as our federal parliaments corruption by the fossil fuel lobby.
frednk @ #1500 Tuesday, January 28th, 2020 – 4:45 pm
You should probably have read the article before commenting.
And who here keeps chanting – and championing – Adani?
Hint: It’s not me.
AE
I posted Mr Verrender’s article a page or two back. It’s on the ABC online site.
“ If 3-5% of the worlds population dies of the Spanish flu in 1918 wouldn’t that equate to 235-390m now?”
It would need to be a number 20 times larger than that to meaningfully assist with the ‘now means now’ zero emissions target that ‘we’ MUST adopt.
Yeah and the $80 mill to a rowing mate for water that doesn’t exist. It is just wall to wall overt corruption, largely with the media playing a co-conspirator role, rather than anything resembling a ‘hold power to account’ role.
The media is a player with there hand out. Remember the lazy $30m Foxtel received from Truffles. The stated reason was to show more female sport.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1510 Tuesday, January 28th, 2020 – 4:57 pm
If rich countries weren’t so fixated on ruthless capitalism they might see fit to ensure poor countries are fitted out with clean energy supply so that the planet can thrive to benefit all.
#extremethoughts
https://www.watoday.com.au/environment/sustainability/death-by-a-thousand-cuts-the-industry-doing-more-damage-than-mining-20200123-p53u6b.html
P1
That point about renewables for “developing” nations was made at Davos
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1510 Tuesday, January 28th, 2020 – 4:57 pm
Once people like you start accepting reality?
I have to admire how you people despise Greta … except when she says something you seem to think you can use against those who propose meaningful action.
Utter bollocks.
No, that is not what I point out. In fact it is pretty much the exact opposite of what I point out.
You are utterly shameless.
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-28/sport-australia-complained-pre-election-government-grants/11905250?pfmredir=sm
Good to see that someone has handed the ABC a grenade to toss into the SportsRorts affair. 🙂 Numbers and stuff (like scores based on actual criteria and proper process) that various people can be called on to specifically address case by case. 🙂
And on the flow on effects of the Coronavirus thing:
https://www.asx.com.au/
Looks like pent up wobbles and panic from the weekend dropped the ASX first thing today when trading opened, then things stabilised. Nothing in freefall as yet.
guytaur @ #1519 Tuesday, January 28th, 2020 – 5:05 pm
Deniers don’t really give a rats about developing nations. For them, they are just another useful tool they can exploit in their ruthless pursuit of perpetuating the burning of fossil fuels.
“It is time to change the definition of refugee
Climate change is an existential threat to humanity and as such, should be included in legislation on asylum seeking.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/time-change-definition-refugee-200126095857235.html
p1
Thanks for the info about the Lyrebirds. Considering that they are litter layer scratch-and-peckers it is sort of heartening that they are surviving in the burned areas.
lizzie
But where would Australia’s climate refugees all go?
It is hardly likely that anyone in the vicinity would actually WANT to take Australian climate refugees.
“ I posted Mr Verrender’s article a page or two back. It’s on the ABC online site.”
The takeout from that article is that the future of coal has already been made in boardrooms around the worl. To which I’d add – also around the cabinet tables of the world as well.
Which underlines the sense of Labor’s ‘nuanced’ position. This is a demand issue. Supply plays little outcome ultimately in hope many new CFPS will be commissioned, or when existing CFPS will be decommissioned. If Labor adopted a blanket not Adani (abrogating any responsibility that a labor government has to follow the existing laws re: approvals) then it win nothing but hostility from affected coal mining communities – and it is also clear – from other communities that identify with miners a lot more than they do with greenies.
Tie Adani up in regulations. Don’t fund it. Don’t ‘guarantee’ it and allow the market to drown the fucker at birth. In the meantime existing operations in Australia continue in the knowledge that many of them may become stranded assets. Good.
What Labor should be doing is promising to nationalise a hydrogen export business – taking advantage of the two very recent major HUGE Australian scientific breakthroughs that make cheap, no emissions hydrogen available to the world. If we actually grasped THAT opportunity we could actually replace the value of all coal and emissions intensive agricultural exports (looking at you Moo and Baa) with something even bigger. Something that could drive petroleum, natural gas and even coal into history within a decade. THAT = HOPE. THAT is probably the BIG idea that Cud has been banging on about recently. Labor should focus on hope and not Green gizmos like ‘stop Adani’.
Just another inquiry in to Home Affairs practices and processes. Maybe Morrison will like to get Dutton involved with denying illegalities in his Department.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ex-director-of-controversial-security-company-paladin-willing-to-tell-all-20200123-p53tzc.html
Boerwar @ #1524 Tuesday, January 28th, 2020 – 5:13 pm
They are probably surviving off the still-moist soils down in the gullies and river valley. But they do love to display in the burned out areas. Show-offs!
Jacinda Ardern has the big advantage of operating in a mostly Rupert-free zone. There is a NZ version of Sky News but hopefully, like here, hardly anyone watches it.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1526 Tuesday, January 28th, 2020 – 5:17 pm
Having no policy is now a “nuanced” position?
Oh, that is a pearl! I’m saving that one!
Boerwar
It will be a interesting moment in history.
“The Australian” is an anus. Bolt is just passing through.
@ElizabethFlux
· 5h
Hello, I just discovered that this is Andrew Leigh’s official photo on his ‘About’ page and it is just the best.
I used to remark that with 5C of warming, Tasmania might become habitable..
Then someone had to write the novel where Tasmania is sold to the Chinese..
https://www.allenandunwin.com/browse/books/fiction/Bruny-Heather-Rose-9781760875169
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Coronavirus tracker.
rhwombat
Most anuses are far more useful than that.
I would like to know the exact times of his unanswered call and the claim of having made a call 🙂
——————————————
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has been caught in a slightly awkward moment when she had to reject a call from Aussie PM Scott Morrison after he rang in the middle of a press conference today.
In his own press conference a short time later in Blayney, NSW, Mr Morrison revealed he had just spoken to the New Zealand PM about the coronavirus situation.
“I have just spoken just a few minutes ago to Prime Minister Ardern, and ………”
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12304070
Too funny………
Schrödinger’s Dog
@FoxholeAtheist_
·
28m
Replying to
@TheRickWilson
and
@realDonaldTrump
Trying to reason with an
@realDonaldTrump
supporter is like trying to play chess with a pigeon. No matter how good you are at chess the pigeon just knocks over all the pieces, shits on the board, and struts around like it won.
poroti @ #1537 Tuesday, January 28th, 2020 – 5:27 pm
Why?
Ardern would have returned the call.
Coal is dying, and now needs government intervention to keep it afloat.
The industry is well funded and connected.
These facts lie at the core of electoral politics in Australia today.
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-28/why-finance-is-fleeing-fossil-fuels/11903928
AE:’What Labor should be doing is promising to nationalise a hydrogen export business – taking advantage of the two very recent major HUGE Australian scientific breakthroughs that make cheap, no emissions hydrogen available to the world. ‘
I am sorry that you may have already posted about these breakthroughs, so I apologise in advance if you have, but what are they?
GG
By the time he claimed to have spoken to her ? Although he would count “leaving a message after the tone” as ‘speaking to her’ .
Cud Chewer @ #1717 Tuesday, January 28th, 2020 – 5:25 pm
Most turds are less foul.
steve davis @ #1535 Tuesday, January 28th, 2020 – 5:25 pm
We used to argue here what exponential growth looked like. Some people thought the growth in solar panels looked exponential. It never was.
That is what exponential growth looks like 🙁
poroti @ #1542 Tuesday, January 28th, 2020 – 5:36 pm
and, this is important because?
One thing I have noticed is that panelists on shows such as Studio 10 and Sunrise Australia like Anthony Albanese, which they never did for Bill Shorten. Indeed, Joe Hildebrand who is a panelist on Studio 10 is an a big fan of Albanese. Because I argue the sort of people who watch these shows are the people who decide which party wins an election or not. Therefore; I give Albanese credit for knowing what swing voters like or not, despite my criticisms of his leadership of the Labor party so far.
Elevating as this discussion about turds and anuses may be, I don’t know if this matter has anything to do with The Australian particularly.
P1
If not it gives a damned good ‘impersonation’ of it 🙂
William Bowe @ #1548 Tuesday, January 28th, 2020 – 5:40 pm
Perhaps that an anagram of “Australian” is “A trial anus”?