Patriot games

Evidence a large majority opposes changing the date of Australia Day, even without the IPA’s thumb on the scales.

First up, please note that immediately below this post is a new entry on developments in Queensland, which include one and possibly two looming state by-elections. With that out of the way, a brief collection of polling and preselection news:

• In the wake of a contentious poll on the subject for the Institute of Public Affairs, The West Australian has published a WA-only survey on attitudes towards celebrating Australia Day on January 26, conducted by Perth market research firm Painted Dog Research. This found 65% support for maintaining the current date with 21% opposed, breaking down to 55-26 among those aged 18 to 39, 67-20 among those 40 to 59, and 78-14 among those 60 and over. Although substantial, the headline figure is narrower than the 71-11 margin recorded by the Dynata poll for the IPA, which primed respondents with two leading questions on being proud of Australia. This poll was conducted from 842 respondents drawn from an online panel, with no field work dates provided.

• Cory Bernardi has followed through on his announcement last year that he would resign to the Senate, which means his South Australian seat returns to a nominee of the Liberal Party, for which he won the seat from the top of the ticket at the 2016 double dissolution. The Australian ($) reports the matter will be decided on February 1, from a field including Morry Bailes, managing partner at Tindall Gask Bentley Lawyers and former president of the Law Council of Australia; state upper house MP Andrew McLachlan; and Michael van Dissel, former state party treasurer. Bailes has the support of conservatives including Mathias Cormann and South Australian federal MPs Tony Pasin and Nicolle Flint, which is presumably good to have.

• Heavy duty psephological pundit Mark the Ballot examines the deficiencies of polling before the May federal election, to the extent that the industry’s lack of transparency makes the matter knowable. The thrust of the analysis is that the pollsters’ models were “not complex enough to adequately overcome the sampling frame problems”, the latter reflecting the fact that surveying methods in the modern age cannot plausibly claim to produce genuinely random samples of the voting population. As well as the models by which the pollsters convert their data into vote shares, this lack of “complexity” may equally arise from herding, the unacknowledged use of smoothing techniques such as rolling averages, and over-use of the same respondents in online panels.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,257 comments on “Patriot games”

Comments Page 31 of 46
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  1. Simon Katich
    “G can sometimes be the Scarlet Pimpernel of point making.”

    I haven’t seen anything other than Sir Percy Blakeney. 😉

  4. Tony Windsor
    @TonyHWindsor
    ·
    1m
    The @NSWRFS has form when it comes to delayed payment , has been doing it for years. It works on the basis that business and contractors need the money so won’t complain . When they do complain they are penalised next time a fire occurs. It is well known in Govt circles.

  5. I watched ‘Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker’ on the weekend. The opportunity you describe would have been quite welcome.

    Three things.
    1. Daisy.
    2. No Jar Jar Binx
    3. Daisy

  6. @Baron_Gotcha

    6h
    In a speech to be delivered in Melbourne today, shadow attorney-general Mark Dreyfus will cite the sports rorts affair as “a brazen example” of what he says is an ongoing “assault on truth and accountability in our politics”.

  10. “ Coal has no future”

    So, no coal fired power stations in … 5 minutes time? … Or tomorrow? … or next year? … how about in 5 years? No coal then? 10 years? 20 years? 30 years?

    When does this ‘no future’ actually start?

    Greta has nailed her colours to the mast in her second Davos address: now means now. Which I am sure is fine for those wealthy enough to make do on their own private means. Or those who live in a country with sufficient nuclear, or hydro, or renewable to make now mean now.

    Those living in poor counties rises that have already committed to thermal coal over the next 30-50 years (at least as part of their overall energy mix) can obviously go and get fucked. Silly poors.

    In my most Pollyanna moments I still think ‘we’ (by which I mean the whole world – not just individuals or selected countries) may be able to land an actual zero emissions (not just net zero emissions) sometime in the next 50 years (maybe net zero emissions by 2050).

    The shame of that is, as P1 points out – it will be too late.

  12. lizzie @ #1506 Tuesday, January 28th, 2020 – 4:52 pm

    @Baron_Gotcha

    6h
    In a speech to be delivered in Melbourne today, shadow attorney-general Mark Dreyfus will cite the sports rorts affair as “a brazen example” of what he says is an ongoing “assault on truth and accountability in our politics”.

    It’s not nearly as brazen as our federal parliaments corruption by the fossil fuel lobby.

  13. frednk @ #1500 Tuesday, January 28th, 2020 – 4:45 pm

    Neither are solutions, the problem is the lack of investment in the transmission system.

    You should probably have read the article before commenting.

    Those chanting Adani are not likely to know what the real issues are, your ignorance is what the industry faces. Won’t stop chanting Adani long enough to learn.

    And who here keeps chanting – and championing – Adani?

    Hint: It’s not me.

  15. “ If 3-5% of the worlds population dies of the Spanish flu in 1918 wouldn’t that equate to 235-390m now?”

    It would need to be a number 20 times larger than that to meaningfully assist with the ‘now means now’ zero emissions target that ‘we’ MUST adopt.

  16. Yeah and the $80 mill to a rowing mate for water that doesn’t exist. It is just wall to wall overt corruption, largely with the media playing a co-conspirator role, rather than anything resembling a ‘hold power to account’ role.

    The media is a player with there hand out. Remember the lazy $30m Foxtel received from Truffles. The stated reason was to show more female sport.

  17. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1510 Tuesday, January 28th, 2020 – 4:57 pm

    “ Coal has no future”

    So, no coal fired power stations in … 5 minutes time? … Or tomorrow? … or next year? … how about in 5 years? No coal then? 10 years? 20 years? 30 years?

    When does this ‘no future’ actually start?

    Greta has nailed her colours to the mast in her second Davos address: now means now. Which I am sure is fine for those wealthy enough to make do on their own private means. Or those who live in a country with sufficient nuclear, or hydro, or renewable to make now mean now.

    Those living in poor counties rises that have already committed to thermal coal over the next 30-50 years (at least as part of their overall energy mix) can obviously go and get fucked. Silly poors.

    In my most Pollyanna moments I still think ‘we’ (by which I mean the whole world – not just individuals or selected countries) may be able to land an actual zero emissions (not just net zero emissions) sometime in the next 50 years (maybe net zero emissions by 2050).

    The shame of that is, as P1 points out – it will be too late.

    If rich countries weren’t so fixated on ruthless capitalism they might see fit to ensure poor countries are fitted out with clean energy supply so that the planet can thrive to benefit all.

    #extremethoughts

  18. The 285 family businesses left to manage almost half WA’s land, the regulators missing in action for decades, and the lone man who is lifting the lid on it all.

    https://www.watoday.com.au/environment/sustainability/death-by-a-thousand-cuts-the-industry-doing-more-damage-than-mining-20200123-p53u6b.html

    David Pollock’s decade-long sustainability project on his family’s West Australian cattle station, Wooleen – involving long periods of de-stocking, rehabilitation and rotational grazing – has had plenty of glowing media attention.

    But his recently published memoir, The Wooleen Way: Renewing an Australian Resource, reveals how his dream to restore the land to productivity has repeatedly brought him to the brink of financial ruin.

    He has battled against the backdrop of a broken system that is wasting taxpayer money, ignoring rule-breakers and covering up bad news while one of our most valuable resources, the pastoral estate, is degraded to crisis point.

  20. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1510 Tuesday, January 28th, 2020 – 4:57 pm

    When does this ‘no future’ actually start?

    Once people like you start accepting reality?

    Greta has nailed her colours to the mast in her second Davos address: now means now. Which I am sure is fine for those wealthy enough to make do on their own private means. Or those who live in a country with sufficient nuclear, or hydro, or renewable to make now mean now.

    I have to admire how you people despise Greta … except when she says something you seem to think you can use against those who propose meaningful action.

    Those living in poor counties rises that have already committed to thermal coal over the next 30-50 years (at least as part of their overall energy mix) can obviously go and get fucked. Silly poors.

    Utter bollocks.

    In my most Pollyanna moments I still think ‘we’ (by which I mean the whole world – not just individuals or selected countries) may be able to land an actual zero emissions (not just net zero emissions) sometime in the next 50 years (maybe net zero emissions by 2050).

    The shame of that is, as P1 points out – it will be too late.

    No, that is not what I point out. In fact it is pretty much the exact opposite of what I point out.

    You are utterly shameless.

  21. https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-28/sport-australia-complained-pre-election-government-grants/11905250?pfmredir=sm

    Good to see that someone has handed the ABC a grenade to toss into the SportsRorts affair. 🙂 Numbers and stuff (like scores based on actual criteria and proper process) that various people can be called on to specifically address case by case. 🙂

    And on the flow on effects of the Coronavirus thing:

    https://www.asx.com.au/

    Looks like pent up wobbles and panic from the weekend dropped the ASX first thing today when trading opened, then things stabilised. Nothing in freefall as yet.

  23. “It is time to change the definition of refugee
    Climate change is an existential threat to humanity and as such, should be included in legislation on asylum seeking.”

    While there still may be room to argue whether life-threatening threats are imminent in particular cases, the Human Rights Committee has recognised that fundamental refugee-protection principles need to be broadened now.

    This means not only that our common understanding of what it means to be a refugee needs to change, but also that the 173 countries that are party to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights should ensure their asylum standards and procedures are adapted to protect all who face existential threats if returned to home countries that have become unlivable.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/time-change-definition-refugee-200126095857235.html

  24. p1
    Thanks for the info about the Lyrebirds. Considering that they are litter layer scratch-and-peckers it is sort of heartening that they are surviving in the burned areas.

  25. lizzie

    But where would Australia’s climate refugees all go?

    It is hardly likely that anyone in the vicinity would actually WANT to take Australian climate refugees.

  26. “ I posted Mr Verrender’s article a page or two back. It’s on the ABC online site.”

    The takeout from that article is that the future of coal has already been made in boardrooms around the worl. To which I’d add – also around the cabinet tables of the world as well.

    Which underlines the sense of Labor’s ‘nuanced’ position. This is a demand issue. Supply plays little outcome ultimately in hope many new CFPS will be commissioned, or when existing CFPS will be decommissioned. If Labor adopted a blanket not Adani (abrogating any responsibility that a labor government has to follow the existing laws re: approvals) then it win nothing but hostility from affected coal mining communities – and it is also clear – from other communities that identify with miners a lot more than they do with greenies.

    Tie Adani up in regulations. Don’t fund it. Don’t ‘guarantee’ it and allow the market to drown the fucker at birth. In the meantime existing operations in Australia continue in the knowledge that many of them may become stranded assets. Good.

    What Labor should be doing is promising to nationalise a hydrogen export business – taking advantage of the two very recent major HUGE Australian scientific breakthroughs that make cheap, no emissions hydrogen available to the world. If we actually grasped THAT opportunity we could actually replace the value of all coal and emissions intensive agricultural exports (looking at you Moo and Baa) with something even bigger. Something that could drive petroleum, natural gas and even coal into history within a decade. THAT = HOPE. THAT is probably the BIG idea that Cud has been banging on about recently. Labor should focus on hope and not Green gizmos like ‘stop Adani’.

  28. Boerwar @ #1524 Tuesday, January 28th, 2020 – 5:13 pm

    p1
    Thanks for the info about the Lyrebirds. Considering that they are litter layer scratch-and-peckers it is sort of heartening that they are surviving in the burned areas.

    They are probably surviving off the still-moist soils down in the gullies and river valley. But they do love to display in the burned out areas. Show-offs!

  29. Jacinda Ardern has the big advantage of operating in a mostly Rupert-free zone. There is a NZ version of Sky News but hopefully, like here, hardly anyone watches it.

  33. @ElizabethFlux
    · 5h
    Hello, I just discovered that this is Andrew Leigh’s official photo on his ‘About’ page and it is just the best.

  37. @justdanfornow
    6h
    Classic. The former coal execs in Morrison’s office only know one guy in advertising: Russel Howcroft

    Russel advised Coal21 on its ill-fated campaign last year to make Aussies feel “proud” about coal…

  38. I would like to know the exact times of his unanswered call and the claim of having made a call 🙂
    ——————————————
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has been caught in a slightly awkward moment when she had to reject a call from Aussie PM Scott Morrison after he rang in the middle of a press conference today.

    In his own press conference a short time later in Blayney, NSW, Mr Morrison revealed he had just spoken to the New Zealand PM about the coronavirus situation.

    “I have just spoken just a few minutes ago to Prime Minister Ardern, and ………”
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12304070

  39. Too funny………

    Schrödinger’s Dog
    @FoxholeAtheist_
    ·
    28m
    Replying to
    @TheRickWilson
    and
    @realDonaldTrump
    Trying to reason with an
    @realDonaldTrump
    supporter is like trying to play chess with a pigeon. No matter how good you are at chess the pigeon just knocks over all the pieces, shits on the board, and struts around like it won.

  40. poroti @ #1537 Tuesday, January 28th, 2020 – 5:27 pm

    I would like to know the exact times of his unanswered call and the claim of having made a call 🙂
    ——————————————
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has been caught in a slightly awkward moment when she had to reject a call from Aussie PM Scott Morrison after he rang in the middle of a press conference today.

    In his own press conference a short time later in Blayney, NSW, Mr Morrison revealed he had just spoken to the New Zealand PM about the coronavirus situation.

    “I have just spoken just a few minutes ago to Prime Minister Ardern, and ………”
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12304070

    Why?

    Ardern would have returned the call.

  42. AE:’What Labor should be doing is promising to nationalise a hydrogen export business – taking advantage of the two very recent major HUGE Australian scientific breakthroughs that make cheap, no emissions hydrogen available to the world. ‘

    I am sorry that you may have already posted about these breakthroughs, so I apologise in advance if you have, but what are they?

  43. GG

    By the time he claimed to have spoken to her ? Although he would count “leaving a message after the tone” as ‘speaking to her’ .

  47. One thing I have noticed is that panelists on shows such as Studio 10 and Sunrise Australia like Anthony Albanese, which they never did for Bill Shorten. Indeed, Joe Hildebrand who is a panelist on Studio 10 is an a big fan of Albanese. Because I argue the sort of people who watch these shows are the people who decide which party wins an election or not. Therefore; I give Albanese credit for knowing what swing voters like or not, despite my criticisms of his leadership of the Labor party so far.

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