9:27am Sunday The exit poll for Saturday’s Irish election has been released. The governing Fine Gael has 22.4%, the far-left Sinn Fein 22.3% and Fianna Fail 22.2%, so there’s only 0.2% between the top three parties. The Greens have 7.9%. The full exit poll is in the comments. No vote counting in Ireland until tonight AEDT.
5:15pm Friday With all precincts reporting, Buttigieg provisionally wins Iowa’s state delegate count by 0.1%. However, the AP will not declare a winner owing to irregularities. We will probably never know for sure who won Iowa’s state delegate count.
Sanders won both of the popular vote measures. He won the “initial” vote by 3.5% and the “final” vote by 1.5%.
4:37pm This tweet explains why Sanders is doing so well with these satellite caucuses.
4:35pm Late counting Iowa drama! I’m not sure what the “satellite caucuses” are, but there were four of them, one for each of Iowa’s Congressional Districts. Three of them have reported, and they are all very strong for Sanders. There’s still one to go.
With 97% in, Buttigieg now leads Sanders by just three state delegates or 0.15%. Sanders leads by 3.5% on the “initial” popular vote, and by 1.5% on the “final” popular vote.
10:41am In the FiveThirtyEight post-Iowa model, Biden’s chance of winning a pledged delegate majority has plunged from 43% to 21%, with Sanders up to 37%. The probability that nobody wins a pledged delegate majority (contested convention) is up to 27%.
10:20am Thursday More Iowa results! With 86% in, Buttigieg leads Sanders by 26.7% to 25.4% on state delegates, the measure the US media is using to call a winner. Warren has 18.3%, Biden 15.8% and Klobuchar 12.1%.
On two other measures, Sanders is still ahead. He leads Buttigieg by 24.3% to 21.6% on “initial” popular votes. He leads by 26.1% to 25.5% on “final” popular votes after realignment.
4:05pm 71% of precincts are now in for the Dem Iowa caucus. The latest 9% haven’t made much difference to the figures.
2:50pm My Conversation article on these caucuses is up. We need to see if there’s a significant impact on national polls from these results. The next contest is New Hampshire on February 11; polls close by 12pm February 12 AEDT.
There was a big moment in Trump’s State of the Union address today. At the end of the speech, Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi literally tore it up.
10:30am New York Times analyst Nate Cohn says results reported so far are representative of the whole state.
10am Wednesday We FINALLY have more Iowa results. With 62% of precincts reporting, Buttigieg leads Sanders by 27% to 25% on State Delegate Equivalents, the traditional measure that most of the media has focussed on. Warren has 18%, Biden 16% and Klobuchar 13%.
On the two other measures, Sanders leads. He leads on the “initial” popular votes by 24.5% to 21.4% for Buttigieg. He leads on the “final” popular votes after realignment by 26% to 25%.
8:15pm More than EIGHT hours after the caucuses began, still only 2% has been reported! I hope we have better results by tomorrow morning.
3:57pm In Ireland, a new poll has Sinn Fein in outright first on 25%, with Fianna Fail on 23%, Fine Gael 20% and the Greens 8%.
3:43pm Nate Silver
At this point, it's been 3.6 hours since the start of the caucuses and 1.9% of precincts have reported results, which extrapolates out to knowing the results in a mere 189 hours, which would be at 9:30 pm next Tuesday, after voting in the NH primary has already closed.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 4, 2020
3:15pm Turnout at these caucuses in on pace for 2016. In 2016, 172,000 participated in the Iowa Dem caucuses, well down from the record 240,000 in 2008. In 2008, the Dems had a charismatic candidate in Barack Obama.
3:05pm With 1.9% in, Sanders is on top with 28% followed by Warren at 25%, Buttigieg 24%, Klobuchar 12% and Biden just 11%.
2:57pm On the Dem side, we’ve only got 32 of 1,765 precincts reporting their post-realignment votes. Much slower than in 2016, when 85% had reported by this time.
2:55pm In 2016, 187,000 votes were cast in the Republican Iowa caucuses. With 83% in, 29,000 votes have been cast in 2020.
2:35pm Still only 1.7% counted, with Buttigieg leading Sanders by 1.3% after realignment. Biden down to 14%. Hurry up!!
1:56pm In the Republican caucus, Trump has over 96% of the vote. Republicans love Trump.
1:54pm By “after realignment”, I mean after the initial division. Candidates polling below 15% in a particular precinct are declared unviable, and their supporters are asked to pick a viable candidate. Candidates originally declared unviable can become viable if they pick up enough to make it over 15% in the second round. It’s explained in this Conversation article.
1:50pm The AP has Buttigieg leading Sanders by 27% to 24% on final alignment numbers, followed by 19.5% for Biden, 15% Warren and 14% Klobuchar. 1.3% of precincts are in.
1:40pm The New York Times results page now gives Sanders 408 final votes (after realignment presumably), Buttigieg 380, Biden 310, Warren 277 and Klobuchar 176.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The final RealClearPolitics poll average for Iowa gave Bernie Sanders 24.2%, Joe Biden 20.2%, Pete Buttigieg 16.4%, Elizabeth Warren 15.6% and Amy Klobuchar 8.6%. As I noted in Friday’s Conversation article, polling for these caucuses has often been inaccurate. The caucuses begin at 12pm AEDT, and the process is described in that article. I will begin commenting on the results about 1:30pm after I return from bridge.
Elsewhere, the far-left Sinn Féin has surged in the Irish polls ahead of this Saturday’s election. Sinn Féin is equal first with Fianna Fáil in one recent poll, and two points behind in another. There is a chance that the two dominant Irish parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, will fail to win a combined majority of the seats. Both these parties are conservative. Other parties likely to win seats are left-wing, so a left majority is a possibility.
Polls in Ireland close at 10pm local time (9am Sunday AEDT). Exit polls will be released then, but no votes are counted until the next morning (Sunday evening AEDT). As Ireland uses Tasmania’s Hare-Clark system, it is likely to take at least a few days to finalise all counting.
And in Britain, Boris Johnson appears to want a hard Brexit on December 31, when the transition period ends.
This doesn’t sound good.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/us/politics/2020-democratic-primary.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
Confessions
I’d be reading that through a NY Times filter if I were you. It’s hardly the go-to outlet for unbiased journalism these days.
@Bellwether, you can’t throw that kind of shit on the table and just leave it there to stink. Provide some kind of argument or GTFO.
And the social media disinformation campaign is in full swing.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/03/conservatives-push-false-claims-voter-fraud-twitter-iowans-prepare-caucus/?itid=hp_hp-bignews3_voter-fraud-155pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans
The Sinn Fein Surge continues. Today’s Irish Times now has them in front.
Strange poll results in Dublin with the election 5 days away:
Sinn Féin 25
Fianna Fáil 23
Finn Gael 20
Labour 4
Green 8
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sinn-féin-leads-way-in-irish-times-ipsos-mrbi-poll-with-highest-support-ever-1.4160461
Having been bitten in the past by some of the peculiarities of the Hare-Clark method (if you stand too many candidates you can dilute your votes and miss out) Sinn Fein has only stood 42 candidates for 160 seats. Their surpluses are likely to go to the smaller left wing parties.
The formation of government took 70 days last time and I suspect it will be longer now.
The Iowa caucuses start in about 10mins or so.
Results here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/03/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus-democrats.html?region=RaceTitle&action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
Satisfaction rates for Irish Leaders:
Mary-Lou McDonald (SF) 41 (+7)
Micheál Martin (FF) 30 (-3)
Leo Vadakar (FG) 30 (-5)
Following on from previous posts. Preference flows in Ireland are somewhat random. It would be ironic if the Civil war parties benefit from SF surpluses
Entrance polls.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/iowa-caucuses-2020-latest-updates/2020/02/03/10e69dd0-463b-11ea-ab15-b5df3261b710_story.html?itid=hp_hp-bignews3_iowa-ticker%3Aprime-time%2Fpromo#link-XXF6YYXQ2EZIDJX7D4TJCU2UXA
G’day fellow enthusiasts for the US primary race. Welcome to the world’s greatest carnival of democracy, with which I fell in love as a teenager while reading Hunter S Thompson’s coverage of the 1972 contest for Rolling Stone.
I suspect that the media is overestimating the importance of the Iowa Caucuses on this occasion. They’ve been important in the past few contests as a key test of the early front runner: eg, in 2008, when Hillary was knocked off her perch by the Obama surge and never recovered. But this time there is no clear front runner, and, given the very unrepresentative nature of the Iowa caucus voters vis-a-vis the overall US electorate (92 per cent white, 60 per cent in favour of a nationalised health system, etc.) – the best we can hope for is for a slight reordering of the current “peloton” – eg, Buttigieg might surge forward a bit and Warren might fall back a bit – and we might see the effective end to the campaigns of Yang and Klobuchar (to the extent that this isn’t already the case).
Anyway, I believe the results are about to start coming through, so I’d better stop predicting so that I don’t look stupid.
BTW, the live streamed coverage on nbn.com is pretty good IMO.
Predicting a win for Bernie here
Free CNN live stream (scroll down the page, the video player is below the first paragraph of text).
Their coverage is fascinating.
https://www.livenewsmag.com/cnn-live-streaming/
It doesnt’ look as if Klobuchar’s camp has made it to 56.
Confessions @ #14 Tuesday, February 4th, 2020 – 10:20 am
At one precinct.
Still much too early to make any calls, but so far looking as though Buttigeig and Klobucher are doing better than expected and Biden worse.
On the basis of what I’m getting from NBC’s coverage, Buttigieg is the candidate who is significantly exceeding expectations. Warren seems to be doing a bit better than I thought she would. Yang is definitely finished and Klobuchar will be teetering on the brink at the end of the night.
It’s hard to judge how Sanders and Biden are doing. Sanders is doing well where he was expected to do well (eg, with college students). Biden doesn’t seem to be doing too well anywhere, but then he wasn’t expected to.
In news that will shock nobody, Trump has won Iowa for the Republicans.
Confessions: “In news that will shock nobody, Trump has won Iowa for the Republicans.”
Who are his opponents?
Confession:
97% with both his opponents lucky to scrape 1% between them.
meher baba @ #19 Tuesday, February 4th, 2020 – 10:35 am
Bill Weld and Joe Walsh.
Bill Weld and Joe Walsh. Weld’s a former Republican governor who was Gary Johnson’s running mate in 2016, and Walsh’s a former congresson turned conservative commentator. Neither had a chance in hell, though I thought they might have garnered at least a little more of a protest vote from Never-Trump types.
Actually, I might have written Klobuchar off a bit too soon: although I continue to expect that she won’t make it too far into the primaries: except in the unlikely event that Biden decides to drop out, which would shift everything around dramatically.
in that context, it might be that the results for Biden could turn out to be a bit more disappointing than I initially thought.
Joe Walsh was a pretty decent sort of rocker before he sold out to easy listening and joined the Eagles.
But I assume it’s not the same Joe Walsh.
With more votes coming in, Biden’s looking better and Klobucher has dropped right down. Sanders currently on top with Buttigeig a close second. Everyone besides the top five polling well below 5%.
Most definitely not that Joe Walsh! Walsh is a former Tea Partier who was for Trump back in 2016.
The precincts that CNN are live-crossing to appear to have mostly young people at the caucuses.
Council Bluffs, Iowa final results:
36 Buttigieg
31 Biden
30 Klobuchar
25 Sanders
Looking increasingly like Buttigeig might pull an upset here.
Quite the disappointing result for Biden, I think, and quite a blow for the “most likely to defeat Trump” narrative. If he can’t even convince his own party’s moderates to vote for him, how’s he supposed to convince the rest of the country.
Biden now head-to-head with Warren for third place, with both less than a point above Klobucher.
The slow results is apparently because party officials are double and triple checking. Presumably in part because of the disinformation claim on social media by conservative reactionaries.
That’s a separate issue. Tonight is Democrats choosing from a crowded field.
If Biden is the Dem nominee then a) there aren’t other Democrat candidates to choose from, and b) he can also appeal to disaffected Republicans and Trump 2016 voters in a way Sanders and maybe others do not.
Buttigieg is very much a candidate who can appeal to the centre.
Trump tried to have a go at Buttigieg at an Iowa rally the other day. The only thing he could come up with was to intentionally mispronounce his name. 🙄
The failure of the Iowa Dems to release the results is starting to look really bad, and – the US being the US – will fuel conspiracy theories and will probably provide some fuel for a Trump tweet in the near future.
Confessions:
That’s certainly true, but the ability to inspire passion and convince people turn out to vote for you is a crucial part to US elections. Biden, IMO, does not have that, and these results are reflecting that. His key selling point is not his policies or even his personality, but rather the received wisdom that he’s the most electable candidate. Personally, I’ve never really bought that argument – he’s a deeply flawed candidate in many ways, and if he wins the nomination, I fear Trump will eat him alive.
Biden and Warren keep flipping spots as results come in 😆
meher baba:
Do we have any idea of how much of the vote has been counted yet? There seems to be little indication on most websites whether the results being reported represent 1% of the total vote or 99%.
Council Bluffs, 3 way tie for delegates. 10 each for Buttigieg, Sanders and Warren. Out of 44 up for grabs.
Conf
“The precincts that CNN are live-crossing to appear to have mostly young people at the caucuses.”
That was my impression. Iowa caucus is a slog – full of standing around, and jostling, and cajoling. Not to everyone’s tastes, particularly older voters and retirees, who might prefer to stay home on a dark winter’s night.
The caucus I attended, some years back, was dominated by uni students and academics. Then again, it was held in Ames, a university-based city.
West Des Moines:
Buttigieg wins another precinct, followed by Sanders and Klobuchar (who picked up Warren’s <15% caucusers.
Warren competing with Sanders for Progressives, with Buttigieg for college-educated and Klobuchar for those who want a woman.
mb
“The failure of the Iowa Dems to release the results is starting to look really bad,”
The Dems have to thoroughly check the results coming in. That’s entirely appropriate, given what a chaotic shemozzle the entire caucus process is.
Kakuru:
Plus there doesn’t look to be much seating the precincts I’ve seen. Given this has been going for over 2 hours it’d be pretty tough for the oldies and less mobile.
Washington Post has shown some caucus precincts with seats.
From twitter:
C@t:
True, I’ve seen a few, but not many.
Commentators saying that a lot of results from the more rural north and west of the state will come in first, then the urban areas. Which makes sense.
Kakuru: further to your point, this was an amusing observation by one commentator on NBC: “I’ve had more success in getting my son to explain Minecraft to me than I have had in trying to get my mind around how the Iowa caucuses work.”
How do voter turn out numbers look compared to 2016? 96% of republicans voting for trump is not surprising given there are no serious challengers, but how many bothered to vote?