Return of the frack

A contentious preference recommendation by the Greens brings a Northern Territory by-election to life, while the closure of nominations yields only a small field of candidates for the Queensland seat of Currumbin.

No Newspoll this week, owing to The Australian’s enthusiasm for unleashing them at the start of parliamentary sitting weeks, requiring a three week break rather than the usual two. However, we do have a extensive new poll on the bushfire crisis from the Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods and the Social Research Centre. It finds that fully 78.6% of the population reports being affected by the fires in one way or another, 14.4% severely or directly. Half the sample of 3000 respondents was asked how Scott Morrison had handled the bushfires, of whom 64.5% disapproved; for the other half the question was framed in terms of the government, with 59.4% disapproving.

Beyond that, there’s the two state/territory by-election campaigns currently in progress:

• I have posted a guide to next Saturday’s by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Johnston, which has suddenly became of more than marginal interest owing to the Greens decision to put Labor last on their how-to-vote cards (albeit that local electoral laws prevent these being distributed within close proximity of polling booths). This has been done to protest the decision by Michael Gunner’s Labor government to lift a moratorium on gas fracking exploration. The party has not taken such a step in any jurisdiction since the Queensland state election of July 1995, when it sought to punish Wayne Goss’s government in the seat of Springwood over a planned motorway through a koala habitat. This made a minor contribution to its loss of the seat, and hence to its eventual removal from office after a by-election defeat the following February. There’s acres of useful information on all this on Antony Green’s new blog, which he is publishing independently due to the ABC’s cavalier treatment of the invaluable blog he had there in happier times. There will also be a piece by me on the Greens’ decision in Crikey today, God willing.

• The other by-election in progress at the moment is for the Queensland seat of Currumbin on March 28, for which my guide can be found guide can be found here. With the closure of nominations last week, only two candidates emerged additional to Laura Gerber of the Liberal National Party and Kaylee Campradt of Labor: Sally Spain of the Greens, a perennial candidate for the party in federal and state Gold Coast seats; and Nicholas Bettany of One Nation, about whom the only thing I can tell you is that he recently deleted his Twitter account (what’s preserved of it on the Google cache reveals nothing particularly outrageous).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,591 comments on “Return of the frack”

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  1. I am not sure what your particular issue, apart from possibly anger management.

    Is it the $3.8 trillion?

    The ‘health market’ is worth around $3.8 trillion a year in the United States.

    If the Feds are going to deliver free healthcare to everyone, then that is what it is going to cost.

  2. Jeez, that horrible, no good SDA Union!

    The company behind Rebel Sport, Supercheap Auto, BCF, and Macpac is the latest in a string of Australian brand names to admit it owes staff millions in unpaid wages – on top of $53.2 million it has already declared.

    Super Retail Group, which has a stable of high street brands, reported its half-year annual results on Thursday, acknowledging it had added another $8 million to the sum it has previously said it owes workers.

    The Queensland company’s net profit for the six months shrank by 20 per cent to $57.4 million, despite modest revenue growth in the face of drought and bushfires.

    Its revenue was up 2.9 per cent to $1.44 billion.

    The group first revealed its underpayment of 10 per cent of its staff in its results for the same six month-period in 2019.

    It has since updated its total estimate for staff back-pay from $53.2 million as at December 2018 to $61.2 million as at December 28, 2019, excluding execution costs.

    Super Retail Group’s admissions are the latest in a week announcements from many of Australia’s biggest brands that they owe millions to their workers. Among them are Coles, Target and Officeworks – who join a cluster of big-name chains and celebrity chefs to be caught out underpaying staff.

    Many of the most recent admissions come after the Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees’ Association – the union that represents retail workers – asked the big chains to audit their payrolls. That request followed Woolworths’ admission in 2019 that it owed $300 million to 5700 staff.

    The SDA has called the increasing number of admissions of wage rip-offs “a full-blown epidemic”. National secretary Gerard Dwyer said he expected many more cases to emerge in coming months.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/work/2020/02/20/super-retail-group-wages/

  4. The Dàil meets for the first time after the Irish election late tonight.
    After electing a Speaker the sole agenda item is to elect a PM (Toaiseach) who must be elected by a majority. If the Taoiseach is not elected the Dàil adjourns for a week. A grand coalition of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the Greens is still considered the favourite but negotiations are still at an early stage and it may be several weeks before a government is formed

  5. C@tmomma @ #1451 Thursday, February 20th, 2020 – 7:47 pm

    Jeez, that horrible, no good SDA Union!

    The company behind Rebel Sport, Supercheap Auto, BCF, and Macpac is the latest in a string of Australian brand names to admit it owes staff millions in unpaid wages – on top of $53.2 million it has already declared.

    Super Retail Group, which has a stable of high street brands, reported its half-year annual results on Thursday, acknowledging it had added another $8 million to the sum it has previously said it owes workers.

    The Queensland company’s net profit for the six months shrank by 20 per cent to $57.4 million, despite modest revenue growth in the face of drought and bushfires.

    Its revenue was up 2.9 per cent to $1.44 billion.

    The group first revealed its underpayment of 10 per cent of its staff in its results for the same six month-period in 2019.

    It has since updated its total estimate for staff back-pay from $53.2 million as at December 2018 to $61.2 million as at December 28, 2019, excluding execution costs.

    Super Retail Group’s admissions are the latest in a week announcements from many of Australia’s biggest brands that they owe millions to their workers. Among them are Coles, Target and Officeworks – who join a cluster of big-name chains and celebrity chefs to be caught out underpaying staff.

    Many of the most recent admissions come after the Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees’ Association – the union that represents retail workers – asked the big chains to audit their payrolls. That request followed Woolworths’ admission in 2019 that it owed $300 million to 5700 staff.

    The SDA has called the increasing number of admissions of wage rip-offs “a full-blown epidemic”. National secretary Gerard Dwyer said he expected many more cases to emerge in coming months.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/work/2020/02/20/super-retail-group-wages/

    What have they been doing all these years while their members were getting ripped off ?

  6. Boerwar @ #1451 Thursday, February 20th, 2020 – 6:47 pm

    The ‘health market’ is worth around $3.8 trillion a year in the United States.

    If the Feds are going to deliver free healthcare to everyone, then that is what it is going to cost.

    Or less because that particular market is notoriously inefficient and full of price-gouging and other ripoffs.

    The Feds can single-payer and regulate/price-control the whole thing, and deliver the same amount of healthcare at a lower cost. Or more/better healthcare for the same $3.8 trillion. If they’re competent, that is.

  7. https://keenermanagement.com/practical-guide-finding-apartment-d-c/
    Best time in advance: We recommend beginning your apartment search about 2 months before you plan to move in, with 1 month being the absolute minimum.

    So in the minds of certain people. it is more acceptable to spend 4 months(I am assuming 2 sessions) of the year looking for somewhere to rent then to own a second property.

    Then every year buy two load of furniture for the rental properties which you get rid of again later in the year.

    Certain sounds like a lot more money and effect to spend then just have a second property.

    And with many homes being abandoned their are plenty of homes that are being used even less.

    With an estimated 40,000 abandoned houses, lots and commercial buildings

    https://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/23/us/philadephia-hopes-a-land-bank-will-combat-urban-blight.html?_r=0

  8. P1

    According to the article –

    1. More methane is released by ALL forms of fossil fuel extraction than previously thought.

    2. The lead author of the paper said this was cause for optimism. Previously, although the scientists knew how much methane was being emitted, they didn’t know where it came from. Knowing that fossil fuel extraction is releasing more methane than previously thought means that there will be more incentive to tighten regulations to reduce methane emissions from fossil fuel extraction.

    3. This is a Good Thing (if 2 happens) because knowing where methane is coming from, and being able to reduce its emission, means that more methane than previously thought can be prevented from entering the atmosphere. Given the nature of methane, this will have a greater impact on lowering greenhouse gas emissions than previously thought possible.

    4. Of course, fossil fuels themselves should be phased out. If, in the meantime, we can improve their extraction so that there are less greenhouse gases emitted, this is a Good Thing.

  10. BW: “If the Feds are going to deliver free healthcare to everyone, then that is what it is going to cost.”

    The Feds already pay it. I thought I made that clear.

    Did that basic point seriously just fly over your head?

  12. Nicholas

    Independent Australia published a piece that I wrote about the causes of unemployment.

    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/australias-unemployment-crisis-the-job-seekers-game-of-musical-chairs,13611

    I am very grateful to Steven Hail for encouraging me to submit articles to Independent Australia. ☺️

    Thanks very much for sharing this. I will read it with great interest. The gems like this you find scrolling through the somewhat personal attacks on this website make it all worthwhile.

    But, I must say, today has seen less of the personal slagging?

  13. ‘a r says:
    Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 7:57 pm

    Boerwar @ #1451 Thursday, February 20th, 2020 – 6:47 pm

    The ‘health market’ is worth around $3.8 trillion a year in the United States.

    If the Feds are going to deliver free healthcare to everyone, then that is what it is going to cost.

    Or less because that particular market is notoriously inefficient and full of price-gouging and other ripoffs.

    The Feds can single-payer and regulate/price-control the whole thing, and deliver the same amount of healthcare at a lower cost. Or more/better healthcare for the same $3.8 trillion. If they’re competent, that is.’

    I have no doubt that there would be plenty of opportunities to straighten out some of the worst abuses. And that would be a good thing.

  16. Took a short car trip today, the first one which hasn’t been for medical reasons since my hip went…

    We drove up the road a bit to look at the fire damage. The bush is greening up already, and, as is so often the case with fires, the damage was patchy, with some clumps of trees untouched and others nearby torched. The back face of Mount Buffalo, however, is barer than I’ve ever seen it, with huge rock faces exposed.

    The river running into the Lake Buffalo Dam is dirtier than I’ve seen it, a thick orangey mud colour.

    We stopped to talk to a guy on a motorbike, who it turns out is a local too (but coming from the other direction, so the next valley along). He says he’s seen cougars. We agreed that there are possibly thylacines out there, and I was willing to accept marsupial lions (just because). We certainly agreed there’s an awful lot of bush out there.

    He had travelled down to Bruthen and Orbost recently. A mate of his in that area had a hot fire race through his property (twice) and returned to find his HiAce had melted. However, the house and a log cabin on the property were untouched.

    The house had a sprinkler system (black polypipe, with the pump run by solar cells and batteries) which he thinks is what saved it – apparently the local firies could not believe it had survived. (I thought of lizzie).

  17. BW I believe you just pulled that number out of your arse.

    I have already provided evidence that Sander’s Medicare for all won’t impose any extra cost to the feds, and it will likely to be even less. Since you ignored it the first time, I’ll post it again:

    “Health care is fundamentally different. If the status quo stays in place, between 2022 and 2031
    the federal government will spend $59.65 trillion.1 According to estimates from the conservative
    Mercatus Center, under the Senate’s Medicare for All legislation, those expenditures will drop
    by approximately $2 trillion.2”

    https://www.sanders.senate.gov/download/medicare-for-all-2019-financing?id=860FD1B9-3E8A-4ADD-8C1F-0DEDC8D45BC1&download=1&inline=file

  18. BW:

    Mr Newbie, this is not personal.

    If you hold a political flame for Mr Sanders and feel comfortable with him having three houses while there are half a million homeless people in the US, go ahead and feel comfortable about that.

    I don’t think anyone should own multiple houses, unless, perhaps, there is some extenuating circumstance. But… what if Bernie only owned one house that was a huge mansion? Would that be ‘better’ in your book than owning three, more-modest homes?

    How many houses do the other Democrat nominee-hopefuls own? Must they hold policies that continue to benefit the economically elite to the detriment of others if they own more than one property to pass your purity test? Where do you draw the line?

  20. BW:

    It is about Sanders. It is about what Sanders does. It is about how socialist Sanders walks the talk. You are what you walk past:

    Oh, damn, you’re right.

    I’m gonna stan for Buttigieg, or whichever pro-establishment candidate is in vogue this week, now that I’ve seen the error of my ways. That’s better than backing a hypocrite who calls himself a socialist!

    Now if Pete wins, maybe Bernie can buy a 4th or 5th property, and all will be right.

  21. Is there some unwritten law, or article of faith that I’m not aware of that states that Bernie Sanders shouldn’t be allowed to run for President on a platform of socialism – while owning 3 homes? I must have missed it.

  22. zoomster @ #1458 Thursday, February 20th, 2020 – 8:07 pm

    P1

    According to the article –

    1. More methane is released by ALL forms of fossil fuel extraction than previously thought.

    2. The lead author of the paper said this was cause for optimism. Previously, although the scientists knew how much methane was being emitted, they didn’t know where it came from. Knowing that fossil fuel extraction is releasing more methane than previously thought means that there will be more incentive to tighten regulations to reduce methane emissions from fossil fuel extraction.

    3. This is a Good Thing (if 2 happens) because knowing where methane is coming from, and being able to reduce its emission, means that more methane than previously thought can be prevented from entering the atmosphere. Given the nature of methane, this will have a greater impact on lowering greenhouse gas emissions than previously thought possible.

    4. Of course, fossil fuels themselves should be phased out. If, in the meantime, we can improve their extraction so that there are less greenhouse gases emitted, this is a Good Thing.

    Give it up, Z. You are making a real fool of yourself.

  23. sprocker_

    One of the ways of perpetuating inequality is to give the ‘oppressed’ party a go, and then, when miraculously, after decades of not having access to whatever it is, they don’t perform well, to use that as a reason to continue the oppression.

    We do this to indigenous groups, for example, giving them funding to administer when they’ve had no experience or training, and then using the inevitable blunders to justify taking the administration of funding back from them again…

    There are numerous other examples.

    Of course women athletes, entering a sport at a level previously denied to them, are going to under perform. For starters, not as many girls play AFL as boys, and many women who did will have given up AFL long ago, so there isn’t the same talent pool to draw from. Then there’s lack of training, coaching expertise, game understanding, etc etc etc.

  28. Thou shalt blaspheme against St Sanders de les Trois Maisons!

    The size of the US health market is $3.8 trillion. The same as the total Fed budget.

    file:///C:/Users/User/Downloads/USA_Health_market_intro.pdf

    Fallen angels abound.

  29. Nicholas

    I am working off real figures. Not estimates.

    But even assuming that the $3.8 trillion figure were reduced magically to $2.9 trillion, Sanders would still be looking for $4.1 trillion to cover his annual budget shortfall.

    I know, I know. He will just magic money tree it and bob’s your uncle.

  31. ‘Big A Adrian says:
    Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 8:52 pm

    Is there some unwritten law, or article of faith that I’m not aware of that states that Bernie Sanders shouldn’t be allowed to run for President on a platform of socialism – while owning 3 homes? I must have missed it.’

    Of course not. You could ask these kids to make sure you have the law right:

    https://www.google.com/search?q=images+of+homeless+children+us&tbm=isch&source=univ&client=firefox-b-d&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjkl8rT8t_nAhXSV30KHc-VDkUQ7Al6BAgKEBk&biw=1120&bih=534

  32. BW
    Thanks for the information about where you store files on your computer hard disc!
    Now, if you could copy the link that you were looking at when it saved the file.
    Try (Right button?) “Copy Link”

  33. ‘Mr Newbie says:
    Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 8:49 pm

    BW:

    It is about Sanders. It is about what Sanders does. It is about how socialist Sanders walks the talk. You are what you walk past:

    Oh, damn, you’re right.

    I’m gonna stan for Buttigieg, or whichever pro-establishment candidate is in vogue this week, now that I’ve seen the error of my ways. That’s better than backing a hypocrite who calls himself a socialist!

    Now if Pete wins, maybe Bernie can buy a 4th or 5th property, and all will be right.’

    The thing is, so we are advised, socialists are more righteous than anyone else.

    Having claimed to be the ethical standard setters, it behooves socialists to walk the talk, does it not? In any case, if you are uncertain about the finer ethical, legal or policy points here, you could ask these boomers for confirmation that you have got it right. The beauty of asking these people is that they look to have the same sort of age profile as Sanders:

    https://www.google.com/search?q=images+of+homeless+elderly+people&tbm=isch&source=univ&client=firefox-b-d&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi7p6yd89_nAhWIXSsKHbe0BW8Q7Al6BAgKEBk&biw=1120&bih=534

  34. This is awkward..

    “New Delhi: India will stop importing thermal coal from financial year 2023-24, coal and mines minister Pralhad Joshi said on Tuesday. The minister said that ideas to transform Coal India into an integrated energy company by allowing it to set up pit-head thermal power station have also been mooted at a brain storming session in Gujarat “

    Read more at:
    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/india-to-stop-thermal-coal-imports-from-fy24-prahlad-joshi/articleshow/74189630.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

  35. phylactella
    Google US health market 2020, or US health care spend 2019. If you hunt around enough you will get to $3.8 trillion. The $5 trillion Sanders Budget shortfall in year one will certainly zoom with the spend. One of the unfortunate realities of current health care spending is that lots of peeps don’t get any at all. The notion that adding all these peeps to the spend but the spend will go down is an interesting notion.

    It is not as if Three Mansions* has a lot of experience with actually managing anything real.

    *To the homeless family, any house is a mansion.

  36. spr
    I don’t think you are supposed to mention that. Nor are you supposed to mention a spot price that is $15 below cost. Or increasing supply availability from Indonesia, Russia, China, Mongolia and Latin America.

  39. sprocket_ @ #1484 Thursday, February 20th, 2020 – 9:21 pm

    This is awkward..

    “New Delhi: India will stop importing thermal coal from financial year 2023-24, coal and mines minister Pralhad Joshi said on Tuesday. The minister said that ideas to transform Coal India into an integrated energy company by allowing it to set up pit-head thermal power station have also been mooted at a brain storming session in Gujarat “

    Read more at:
    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/india-to-stop-thermal-coal-imports-from-fy24-prahlad-joshi/articleshow/74189630.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

    But, but how will Gina and Clive get their Government paid for railways if India don’t buy coal from Adani.

  40. zoomster @ #1474 Thursday, February 20th, 2020 – 8:55 pm

    P1

    So you disagree with 4? Fair enough.

    So … let’s get this straight …

    We should frack more. Because that way we know where the methane is coming from. So then we can apply regulations to try and reduce it. A bit. If we’re lucky. And if we don’t have any more fracking explosions. And then we can phase out the fossil fuels, which we have just made much more difficult to do by increasing our dependence on fracking.

    Have I got that right? Do you want to amend anything before we submit your post to the “stupidest post of the day” competition?

  42. Boerwar:

    All that said, if it is Sanders v Trump I will be rooting for Sanders.

    I can’t wait to read your pro-Sanders monologues if/when he’s the nominee and the election is on!

  43. It’s really funny (but sad) that the right-whingers on here demand a level of purity about a candidate in the U.S that is pushing for policies that to a degree all Australians already enjoy.

    I wonder how many Liberal, Labor and Greens members own three houses.

  46. The vehemence, passion and tribalism shown here for one Democratic candidate or the other – when no-one here has a vote, or anything other than indirect interest in the Primary elections – is funny.

    Minute-by-minute rebuttals, triumphant quoting of polls, fanciful costings, and conclusive denunciations abound as if the results on the night depended on it.

    They don’t.

  48. Bushfire Bill:

    The vehemence, passion and tribalism shown here for one Democratic candidate or the other – when no-one here has a vote, or anything other than indirect interest in the Primary elections – is funny.

    Of course, no-one here has anything to say about state elections in states that they do not reside in… or about Federal MP’s that are not representing their seat or state.

  49. Bushfire Bill @ #1496 Thursday, February 20th, 2020 – 9:42 pm

    The vehemence, passion and tribalism shown here for one Democratic candidate or the other – when no-one here has a vote, or anything other than indirect interest in the Primary elections – is funny.

    Minute-by-minute rebuttals, triumphant quoting of polls, fanciful costings, and conclusive denunciations abound as if the results on the night depended on it.

    They don’t.

    As we told the Kaiser…………

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