Courtesy of The Australian, the latest Newspoll, the first in three weeks, has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49 (though there is a view abroad that Newspoll’s preference model is short-changing Labor), with the Coalition steady on 38% of the primary vote, Labor down one to 34%. There is no evidence of change in Greens support with the change of leadership, which is steady at 13%, and One Nation are steady at 4%. A recent spike in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings has worn off, with his approval down four to 39% and disapproval up four to 44%, while Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 58%. We are told that Morrison has “closed the gap” on preferred prime minister, but must await more detail on that one.
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that Anthony Albanese maintains a bare 41-40 lead as preferred prime minister, down from 43-38 last time. The BludgerTrack trends on the sidebar have been updated with the personal and preferred prime minister ratings. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1513.
UPDATE 2: Newspoll also has a question that asks whether respondents thought the bushfires were more the result of “global warming and climate change” or “a failure by state and territory governments to conduct adequate hazard reduction in winter to lower the risk”, plus a curious third option of “nothing stands out”. Despite the spikes in concern about climate change and the environment recorded by recent Ipsos Issues Monitor and Australia Institute surveys, this poll records 56% favouring the second of the options, compared with only 35% for global warming. However, 43% now favour lowering emissions as a priority over keeping energy prices down (42%) and preventing blackouts (11%), which compares with 24%, 63% and 9% in July 2018, and 41% now say they would pay more to meet emissions targets compared with 50% who would not, comparing with 30% and 58% in October 2017.
No bounce for Bandt? Would that be a first that a new leader doesn’t get a corresponding lift in party support?
If Morrison’s net sat figure remains in this neighbourhood then Albo should be happy with year 1.
Another Newspoll of no account whatsoever at this point in the electoral cycle……………………….
WB:
“the latest Newspoll, the first in three weeks, has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49 (though there is a view abroad that Newspoll’s preference model is short-changing Labor),”
That wouldn’t be a suggestion that there is an inherent bias on Newspolls part, would it ?
I think Albanese needs to ‘flick the switch to vaudeville’. As Janine Perrett commented this week, Donald Trump has turned politics into just another Reality TV show. And political leaders need to satisfy their audience in ever more performative ways. Whilst still addressing the issues of the day. If you want to be a serious player.
Nath,
So you measrure Albo’s performance on how Morrison rates.
Strange!!!
C@t:
I think the govt has the lock on the vaudeville switch!
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #6 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 10:06 pm
Any comment of that guy’s about a Labor leader comes from this place:
Confessions:
“I think the govt has the lock on the vaudeville switch!”
Is that because Scotty is a clown ?
I’m sure they’re not doing it with nefarious ends in mind, but the view is that they’re still crediting the Coalition with the preferences of Palmer United voters who have actually drifted to the Liberal primary vote column, thereby double counting them.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga
says:
Sunday, February 23, 2020 at 10:06 pm
Nath,
So you measrure Albo’s performance on how Morrison rates.
Strange!!!
______________________
I’m not even going to respond to this silliness.
Do we know when this poll was taken?
Was is before or after “Albo made a speech”?
WB
Ok, so it’s not something that’s indicative of newscorp in general (I’m assuming that Newscorp still own Newspoll)
P1
I was polled on Friday, the day Albo made his speech
Confessions @ #7 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 10:07 pm
And that’s the point! They are improving, coming from a woeful point over summer. Why? Because they know how to locate the electorate’s equivalent of the amygdala, and they keep stimulating it with every trick in the political playbook.
Morrison may not actually be doing what’s right, but he sounds like he is. To the generally disengaged, that is.
Well by his own admission his govt is a muppet show.
Goll
I’d hardly describe Albo’s performance on Insiders as brilliant. He’s just not well advised on engineering and technical subjects. I wasn’t that impressed with Speers either.
Speers for his part came up with a “thousand billion” figure for decarbonising electricity. This is a nonsense figure and Albo should have come prepared to knock that one on its head.
Speers also pressed Albo on making agriculture CO2 neutral. This is actually a difficult problem, but Albo again should have sought the advice of experts and come well briefed.
Albo made a reasonable start of pressing home the point that passenger vehicles are going to be all electric soon. However, Albo needs better and more up to date advice on other issues to do with transport.
Also, when the subject of metallurgical steel came up, Albo referred to hydrogen steel as being in the research stage. Well, no its not – its up to the pilot stage and at least one steel maker has announced it will begin commercial production in 2026. Albo needs to be updated and he needs better technical advice. Who is advising him anyone? Does anyone know?
Also completely untouched by Albo is the positive side of investment in new technology. All the industries that are enabled by cheap renewable power. Again, why is he not being briefed on this shit? He should turn the conversation from “what’s the cost of not taking action” to “Labor is going to bring forward investment into new zero carbon technology that will create wealth and jobs”. Again, who is actually on Albo’s staff and why are they not earning their salaries?
Kevin Bonham on twitter
#Newspoll combined non-majors primary vote (28) is one point below the all-time high of 29 which was recorded four times in 2017. (Election result was 25.2)
sprocket_ @ #14 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 10:13 pm
Then it’s difficult to tell whether the speech contributed to Albo’s falling popularity, or not 🙁
With all that’s been going on in the last few months, the fires, the blithering incompetence, the lies, the corruption, it should be 55-45 to Labor, which might translate to 52-48 in an actual election. Rupert and the Government will be quite untroubled by this poll.
With all and sundry of late, Morrison would welcome this poll.
William.. what’s your take on the most recent Newspolls. Have their assumptions been adjusted since the election and if so do you know what assumptions have been adjusted and what the theory might be behind this?
C@t:
Perhaps. I just don’t think the answer is to behave the same. That’s why I don’t believe the Democrats should nominate a mini-me Trump to contest the presidency, but someone who represents a steady and safe pair of hands.
Same here in Oz.
P1
When the key takeaway of Albo’s speech sinks in – the commitment to net zero emissions by 2050, in line with all the States, the BCA and numerous experts – the numbers will shift. Not everyone obsesses over every jot and tittle.
sprocket_ @ #24 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 10:21 pm
Yes, I agree with you they will shift. But we may disagree about which way! 🙂
With the shitstorm Morrison has gone through over the summer, 51-49 behind is not too bad. Each Way Albo can’t be that happy. He should be miles in front.
Cud Chewer:
Please refrain from not putting the moderator on the mark.
11% for parties other than the Coalition, Labor, The Greens and One Nation is pretty high.
“With the shitstorm Morrison has gone through over the summer, 51-49 behind is not too bad. Each Way Albo can’t be that happy. He should be miles in front.”
Not really, Morrison is dithering on Climate change, or make that He seems unwilling to face to growing reality, not that his party will allow him. More than that, the economy is going to be increasingly tough on the COALition, and at the end of the day, it’s still “the economy stupid”
Revealed: quarter of all tweets about climate crisis produced by bots
Draft of Brown study says findings suggest ‘substantial impact of mechanized bots in amplifying denialist messages’
https://amp.theguardian.com/technology/2020/feb/21/climate-tweets-twitter-bots-analysis?__twitter_impression=true
Very encouraging to see more people are joining our movement. Australians are getting sick of the two old establishment parties. Adam Bandt is proving to be a great leader of Australia’s progressive left.
We don’t know nearly enough, but we do know that they’re weighting for education and making more of an effort to make their samples representative in terms of social class. This is good, as their problem before may have been that they were over-weighting the affluent and educated class that swung against the Coalition at the election. Since the election showed them to have been overstating the Labor primary vote, it is natural that the changes they have made will be having the effect of tamping it back down.
An analysis by Ben Raue
2019 election – winning on the early vote
http://www.tallyroom.com.au/39212
Firefox
Really?
According to williams blurb “There is no evidence of change in Greens support with the change of leadership, which is steady at 13%”
“I think Albanese needs to ‘flick the switch to vaudeville’. As Janine Perrett commented this week, Donald Trump has turned politics into just another Reality TV show. And political leaders need to satisfy their audience in ever more performative ways. Whilst still addressing the issues of the day. If you want to be a serious player.”
***
Maybe Labor should draft Oprah 😛
They ALWAYS ask about your level of education. Plus, how many kids you have living at home, under and over 18.
Greens’ new ‘climate trigger’ bill will force ‘climate change assessment’ onto big projects
https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6135111810001
“Greens Senator Sarah Hanson Young says her new private member’s bill which will be introduced to parliament on Monday will enforce a “climate trigger” into Australia’s environmental laws.
The bill will aim to ensure large, potentially environmentally damaging projects such as oil drillings and the building of new mines will have to undergo an environmental assessment to ascertain their effects on climate change.
Ms Hanson-Young told Sky News host Sharri Markson none of the current environment laws and assessments “include the impact on climate change” of such projects and in fact “don’t allow for big projects … to be assessed before they’re given a ‘green tick of approval’”.
Yessirrebob, yes, really. It’s a shame William is no longer maintaining his primary vote Blugertracker or you could see how the Greens vote has risen lately according to Newspoll.
Pegasus says:
Sunday, February 23, 2020 at 10:41 pm
Greens’ new ‘climate trigger’ bill will force ‘climate change assessment’ onto big projects
https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6135111810001
“Greens Senator Sarah Hanson Young says her new private member’s bill which will be introduced to parliament on Monday will enforce a “climate trigger” into Australia’s environmental laws.
The bill will aim to ensure large, potentially environmentally damaging projects such as oil drillings and the building of new mines will have to undergo an environmental assessment to ascertain their effects on climate change.
Ms Hanson-Young told Sky News host Sharri Markson none of the current environment laws and assessments “include the impact on climate change” of such projects and in fact “don’t allow for big projects … to be assessed before they’re given a ‘green tick of approval’”.
This will ensure that such measures will never ever become law In Australia. The Greens kiss-of-political-death will apply.
Firefox :
[‘Very encouraging to see more people are joining our movement. Australians are getting sick of the two old establishment parties. Adam Bandt is proving to be a great leader of Australia’s progressive left.’]
Really, dear, you do carry on from to time to time, with the watermelons, there being no of ‘evidence of change in Greens (sic) support with the change of leadership, which is steady at 13.’.
I’ll Go with Williams assessment on the Greens performance, thanks. Besides, if the Economy keeps going the way that’s expected, then the Greens will be even more irrelevant.
Economic downturns dictate that people prefer parties that can demonstrate good economic management.
Here’s an interesting graphic analysis of the causes of Golbal warming.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/
Wisely, Bludgertrack has been ditched. There’s not enough data to construct such a series. The data that was used until the last election was just misleading. The published 2PP estimates above are very likely to be wrong, while the Primary polling is at best hit and miss. It was wrong in 2019. It’s likely to be wrong now too.
Cud @10.16
Thanks
I will bring BludgerTrack back when there’s enough data to make it seem worthwhile. For now, I’ve just updated the leadership trends with the Newspoll results.
Albo is making a complete hash of climate policy with his zero net emissions + more coal mining for export and no need for a carbon price bullshit. He has a chance to articulate a plan to transition from first thermal coal, and then metallurgical, with investment in regions and cleaner technology, funded by a carbon price.
He has also not pressed the advantage of the multitude of funds rorting criminality – probably because the gov has a list of labors crimes and misdeeds with funding allocations when they were last in power.
I am constantly disappointed in how crap Albo is as leader. He makes shorten look so much more prime ministerial. If he hasn’t have a 5-10 point advantage of Morrison after the past 3 months, then he should give up now.
“I’ll Go with Williams assessment on the Greens performance, thanks.”
***
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll
Like I said, the Greens vote has risen lately according to Newspoll.
“Like I said, the Greens vote has risen lately according to Newspoll.”
Yeah nah
WB “There is no evidence of change in Greens support with the change of leadership, which is steady at 13%”
Like I said, I’ll go with Williams assessment thanks
sustainable future @ #46 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 10:52 pm
This demonstrates, once again, that Australian voters don’t rate Climate Change Policy as highly as an issue as you.
“Like I said, I’ll go with Williams assessment thanks”
***
Ok. I have no interest in banging my head against a brick wall over it. I’ve shown you the Newspoll trend now so you know the truth anyway. 🙂