Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The latest Newspoll suggests the immediate effects of the bushfire crisis are unwinding, though more obviously so in the case of Albanese’s approval than Morrison’s disapproval.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest Newspoll, the first in three weeks, has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49 (though there is a view abroad that Newspoll’s preference model is short-changing Labor), with the Coalition steady on 38% of the primary vote, Labor down one to 34%. There is no evidence of change in Greens support with the change of leadership, which is steady at 13%, and One Nation are steady at 4%. A recent spike in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings has worn off, with his approval down four to 39% and disapproval up four to 44%, while Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 58%. We are told that Morrison has “closed the gap” on preferred prime minister, but must await more detail on that one.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that Anthony Albanese maintains a bare 41-40 lead as preferred prime minister, down from 43-38 last time. The BludgerTrack trends on the sidebar have been updated with the personal and preferred prime minister ratings. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1513.

UPDATE 2: Newspoll also has a question that asks whether respondents thought the bushfires were more the result of “global warming and climate change” or “a failure by state and territory governments to conduct adequate hazard reduction in winter to lower the risk”, plus a curious third option of “nothing stands out”. Despite the spikes in concern about climate change and the environment recorded by recent Ipsos Issues Monitor and Australia Institute surveys, this poll records 56% favouring the second of the options, compared with only 35% for global warming. However, 43% now favour lowering emissions as a priority over keeping energy prices down (42%) and preventing blackouts (11%), which compares with 24%, 63% and 9% in July 2018, and 41% now say they would pay more to meet emissions targets compared with 50% who would not, comparing with 30% and 58% in October 2017.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,168 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 21 of 24
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  1. Ah! Russell Broadbent says the only reason there will be no surplus is that is an UNPRECEDENTED circumstance now that has NEVER been met before. Translation: It’s NOT OUR FAULT that we lied.
    _____
    In fact Labor FORCED them to lie.

  2. Kronomex
    says:
    What does Weinstein being a democrat have to do with his being a soon to be gaoled sleazebag?
    ______________________________
    I assumed he was making a point about establishment democrats in Hollywood. Both Weinstein and Epstein were donors for the Democrats and both friendly with the Clintons.

  5. On the average Labor is able to win from opposition 4/30…so once every seven or eight elections. Labor is in Opposition at present. It last won in 2007. It should expect to have an average kind of chance of winning again in 2028, or 21 years after its last win. This would be on par. Of course, Labor have also gone much longer between wins from opposition. The longest interval was 43 years, between 1929 and 1972.

    The Bandt strategy assumes Labor might be in a position to share power with the Greens, that the two parties together would muster an HoR majority.

    If things go badly, this might not happen until 2050…43 years from 2007.

    The chances are very high that the Bandt strategy will end in failure. The probability of failure must be over 95%. This provoked the question: why have the Greens committed themselves to bear certain failure? Why would the Greens commit themselves to a failure that will keep the LNP in power? Why?

  6. phoenixRED:

    Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:51 pm

    Thanks for that and your post that followed @ 3:54, the stat, ‘But in 2015 alone — in the course of a single year — that same number of current and ex-service personnel took their lives’, bearing testimony to Boerwar’s post re. PTSD.

  9. Mavis says: Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:14 pm

    phoenixRED:

    Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:51 pm

    Thanks for that and your post that followed @ 3:54,

    ******************************************

    Thanks Mavis – you KNOW the price those poor soldiers have made – being sent on tour after tour and things they have seen and tried to cope with …..

    ……. but in OZ its more important for the Murdock/Aus media to faine outrage about the AFP to rake through an ABC reporters underwear than STAND UP for our Vets ….

  10. Peter Dutton says he is “blind” to whether people are left or right on “the spectrum”.

    What was that quote from him about lefties?

  12. BK @ #1001 Tuesday, February 25th, 2020 – 4:11 pm

    Ah! Russell Broadbent says the only reason there will be no surplus is that is an UNPRECEDENTED circumstance now that has NEVER been met before. Translation: It’s NOT OUR FAULT that we lied.
    _____
    In fact Labor FORCED them to lie.

    So, the GFC wasn’t an ‘Unprecedented Circumstance’ then? I beg to differ with Russell.

  14. Shane Wright
    @swrighteconomy
    ·
    3h
    PM says the Oz economy will have to depend on its “domestic side” a lot more. This from the last national accounts show that could be a problem …

  18. PK

    The director-general of ASIO pointed out, not just this director-general either, Duncan Lewis before him, the fact that ASIO has been concentrating on right-wing extremist lunatic groups and individuals for literally decades.

    Duts

    I just don’t understand why we get bogged down in this language. The bigger issue here is the threat that we face and what we are doing about it and that was the subject of Mr Burgess’ speech last night.

  19. phoenixRED:

    Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:20 pm

    Luckily I didn’t observe the type of trauma many diggers did. But I did witness them coming back from Vietnam (HMAS Sydney ’71-’72), many of whom appeared to be broken young men, and one of whom I went to school with and who suicided about a year after returning. I have a nephew in the QPS who’s witnessed a number of horrific scenes. He thinks he’s not going to be affected, but my advice to him is to
    reach out if he’s silently suffering.

  20. And Donald Trump, very much of the Establishment, and a Republican, has sexually assaulted women. So I fail to see the point in linking Harvey Weinstein with ‘Establishment Democrats’. Except if your bete noir is ‘Establishment Democrats’, I guess, and you’ll grab a hold of any feeble excuse to put the boot into them.

    Btw, Bellwether, there are plenty of Hollywood Republicans as well. Ronald Reagan and Arnold Schwarzenegger (who fathered a child with his Hispanic housekeeper), being just the 2 most famous.

  21. Mavis says: Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:38 pm

    phoenixRED:

    Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:20 pm

    Luckily I didn’t observe the type of trauma many diggers did. But I did witness them coming back from Vietnam (HMAS Sydney ’71-’72), many of whom appeared to be broken young men, and one of whom I went to school with and who suicided about a year after returning. I have a nephew in the QPS who’s witnessed a number of horrific scenes. He thinks he’s not going to be affected, but my advice to him is to reach out if he’s silently suffering.

    ***********************************************************

    THANK YOU Mavis – for YOUR SERVICE !!!!!! and thoughts of others !!!!!

    I always remember an American soldier on TV saying something like – I have never understood how they expected us to go over there and see the things we have seen and the things we did and to come back unaffected and without problems …..

    guys who had never seen a dead body and seeing their buddies blown up into pieces by their side …..

    From RAMBO – First Blood

    Teasle: He was just another drifter who broke the law!

    Trautman: Vagrancy wasn’t it? That’s gonna look real good on his grave stone in Arlington: Here lies John Rambo, winner of the Congressional Medal of Honor, survivor of countless incursions behind enemy lines. Killed for vagrancy in Jerkwater, USA.

    Teasle: Now don’t give me any of that crap Trautman. Do you think Rambo was the only guy who had a tough time in Vietnam? He killed a police officer for Christ’s sake!

    Trautman: You’re goddamn lucky he didn’t kill all of you.

  24. RAMBO – First Blood :

    Rambo: We were in this bar in Saigon and this kid comes up, this kid carrying a shoe-shine box. And he says “Shine, please, shine!” I said no. He kept askin’, yeah, and Joey said “Yeah.” And I went to get a couple of beers, and the box was wired, and he opened up the box, fucking blew his body all over the place. And he’s laying there, he’s fucking screaming. There’s pieces of him all over me, just…

    [Takes off his bandolier]

    Rambo: like this, and I’m tryin’ to pull him off, you know, my friend that’s all over me! I’ve got blood and everything and I’m tryin’ to hold him together! I’m puttin’… the guy’s fuckin’ insides keep coming out! And nobody would help! Nobody would help! He’s saying, sayin’ “I wanna go home! I wanna go home!” He keeps calling my name! “I wanna go home, Johnny! I wanna drive my Chevy!” I said “With what? I can’t find your fuckin’ legs! I can’t find your legs!”

    Trautman: You did everything to make this private war happen. You’ve done enough damage. This mission is over, Rambo. Do you understand me? This mission is over! Look at them out there! Look at them! If you won’t end this now, they will kill you. Is that what you want? It’s over Johnny. It’s over!

    Rambo: Nothing is over! Nothing! You just don’t turn it off! It wasn’t my war! You asked me, I didn’t ask you! And I did what I had to do to win! But somebody wouldn’t let us win! And I come back to the world and I see all those maggots at the airport, protesting me, spitting. Calling me baby killer and all kinds of vile crap! Who are they to protest me, huh? Who are they? Unless they’ve been me and been there and know what the hell they’re yelling about!

    Trautman: It was a bad time for everyone, Rambo. It’s all in the past now.

    Rambo: For *you*! For me civilian life is nothing! In the field we had a code of honor, you watch my back, I watch yours. Back here there’s nothing!

    Trautman: You’re the last of an elite group, don’t end it like this.

    Rambo: Back there I could fly a gunship, I could drive a tank, I was in charge of million dollar equipment, back here I can’t even hold a job *parking cars*!

  25. Great Australian Bight: Equinor abandons plans to drill for oil

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/25/great-australian-bight-equinor-abandons-plans-to-drill-for-oil

    Sarah Hanson Young, the Greens environment spokeswoman and a South Australian senator, called on other parties to back Greens’ legislation that would put the Bight forward for world heritage protection.

    “Opening a new fossil fuel basin in the middle of our ocean was always madness,” she said. Moving to net zero emissions by 2050 means we must reduce pollution now, not give the green light to new polluting projects.”

  26. Kronomex
    says:
    Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:58 pm
    Couldn’t happen to a nicer corporation. I can almost see the LNP giving this “Great Australian Business” another huge handout in the future.
    _____________________________
    Shutting down their HFC and switching entirely to streaming might save them. they have some good titles. We will see.

  27. Tasmanian Lower House should be increased by 10 members, report recommends

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-25/tasmania-parliament-should-be-restored-report-recommends/11998506

    Tasmanian MPs have found a historic decision to cut the size of the state’s parliament has undermined government accountability, recommending the Lower House be boosted by an extra 10 politicians.

    A report into the 1998 decision to reduce the House of Assembly from 35 to 25 members found there were now too many ministerial advisers making decisions without direct accountability to the people of Tasmania.
    :::
    The Lower House committee — made up of Green, Liberal and Labor MPs — unanimously recommended the restoration of parliament.

    “The Committee specifically notes senior political figures and former members of parliament from across the political spectrum agree it was a mistake to reduce the numbers in the House of Assembly,” the report said.

    The inquiry looked at a 2018 Greens bill that would have the House of Assembly restored to 35 members.
    :::
    Committee chair and Greens leader Cassy O’Connor said every member of the committee was united in recommending the numbers be restored.

    “In a rare display of political unity, every member of that committee, Liberal, Labor and Greens, agreed that the numbers in the House of Assembly should be restored to 35 in the interests of good governance and Tasmania’s democracy,” she said.

    Liberal member for Clark Sue Hickey said the report was one of the most significant to be handed down in recent years.
    :::
    The Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s Michael Bailey added his voice to the chorus of support for adding 10 more politicians to the Lower House.

    Some history why the number was reduced from 35 to 25….Dr Kevin Bonham:

    What are the costs and benefits of restoring Tasmania’s Lower House to 35 members?
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-22/cost-and-benefits-of-restoring-a-bigger-tasmanian-parliament/11329446

    The state’s Lower House used to have 35 members, but in 1998 it was shrunk to 25 amid concerns Tasmania was over-governed and prone to hung parliaments.

    It was also seen as an attempt to reduce the influence of the Greens after they won the balance of power in 1996.
    :::
    He said although the 25-seat system appeared to provide a greater chance of majority governments because it favours major parties, there was an increased chance that they would be majorities of one, such as in the current Parliament.

    In 1998 both major parties in Tasmania in lockstep to reduce the number of parliamentarians from 35 to 25. Twenty-two years later both major parties in lock step to restore the number of parliamentarians to 35. The irony.

  28. WA Treasurer Ben Wyatt to quit politics, announces he will not run in next election

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-25/wa-treasurer-ben-wyatt-to-quit-politics-at-next-wa-election/11998568

    Mr Wyatt said the decision had not been easy, but he wanted to spend more time with his wife and two daughters following what he referred to as a personal health issue in his family.
    :::
    But he said in recent months he had been reflecting on the demands of the job and the effect on his personal life.
    :::
    He has two school-aged daughters and his wife is recovering from a breast cancer diagnosis.

    “When I first got elected, I didn’t have any kids,” he said.

    “My daughters have only ever known me as an MP and minister, which means they don’t see much of me.

    “My children are of an age where it leaves me with a short time to relish new experiences with them while they still want to hang out with me, and before they reach the senior levels of high school.

  29. a.v. fyi

    From the Guardian:

    “Zali Steggall’s climate bill, which includes a petition to have it treated as a conscience vote, now has 50,000 signatures, with every electorate in Australia represented.”

  30. Equinor says that it was public pressure that helped them to make the decision not to drill and that’s regrettable because the public don’t understand what a good safety record they have in other areas, and how detrimental this will be for energy security.

  31. OTOH a professional surfer who has experience all over the world says the Bight is so isolated from the rest of the world that quick solutions to an oil spill would be almost impossible.

  33. The Guardian:

    Sarah Hanson-Young calls for world heritage protection for Great Australian Bight

    Sarah Hanson-Young on Equinor’s decision:

    “The decision of oil giant Equinor to pull out and dump its plans for oil drilling in South Australia’s gorgeous Great Australian Bight is a huge win for South Australia. A massive win for the community, for the environment, and our fishing and tourism industries.

    This had been a long-fought fight. Thousands of people were involved in sending a very clear message to this foreign company that we didn’t want them in South Australia.

    We didn’t want them ruining our beautiful beaches and destroying our coastline.

    It’s quite clear that South Australians want to protect the Great Australian Bight.

    They want to give it world heritage protection.

    The best thing the government can do now is to embrace the community sentiment to back world heritage protection and to celebrate how good our bight is. South Australia has a very positive future.

    A fishing and tourism industry, a renewable energy industry that can power not just our state, but the whole country into the future.

    This age-old dirty oilfield proposal was never going to fly. The company, of course, had said that it pulled out because it just doesn’t stack up commercially. It didn’t stack up with community sentiment, didn’t stack up with the environment and it doesn’t stack up economically.”

    ————————————
    Fight for the Bight – Great Australian Bight Alliance:

    https://www.fightforthebight.org.au/

  35. The Guardian

    On the flip side, the government, Labor, and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation are all opposing this motion from Sarah Hanson-Young at the moment:

    I shall move that the Senate:

    1. Notes:

    a. The New South Wales Government has lifted its moratorium on floodplain harvesting and water pumping;

    b. Water from recent rains has not yet made it down the river and there are still towns without drinking water, dry catchments and storages and fish species facing collapse;

    c. The Murray-Darling Basin Authority says it is too early to say whether all storages will receive water or if flows will be enough to connect the rivers;

    d. The Queensland Government has also allowed floodplain harvesting which was criticised by the NSW Government;

    e. Upstream Basin states making decisions that only benefit them puts the entire river system in jeopardy;

    f. The Murray-Darling Basin is on the verge of collapse and family farms, river communities and the environment need national leadership.

    2. Calls on the NSW Government to reinstate the moratorium on floodplain harvesting and water pumping.

  36. In analyzing the latest Newspoll, it indicates a quite polarized electorate based on the preferred Prime Minister and two-party preferred figures. So far Albanese has proven to me that the Labor Party is moving towards at the 2022 election promising a ‘Green Fair Go’ with a Universal Jobs guranette (which will be very popular in the jobs starved outer suburbs and regional cities).

    However, I am reasonably confident Labor will win the 2022 election in a landslide, even if the Greens win some seats off Labor. Because of my prediction of an economic crisis occurring in this country in the meantime. Which will result in the ‘Quiet Australians’ feeling they were betrayed by Scott Morrison who promised his government would ‘keep the economy strong’.

    In addition I predict Anthony Albanese in these circumstances could become a truly trans-formative Prime Minister as John Curtin was. Because I argue Albanese (unlike Bill Shorten) has demonstrated Progressive credentials consistently throughout his political career. Therefore; I argue right now the strategy Albanese is deploying, is because Albanese wants to be Prime Minister so much. Also, for Labor to win the 2022 they need endorsement from some News Limited outlets particularly in Queensland (which Kevin Rudd got in 2007).

  37. Larissa Waters on Twitter:

    “Pauline Hanson & One Nation the lone voices defending the atrocious victim blaming comments of Bettina Arndt. Yet more reason she is not appropriate to be the Deputy Chair of the Family Law Inquiry. I’ve written to my fellow Fam Law Committee members today asking for her removal.”

  43. In breaking news.

    Nine News Sydney
    @9NewsSyd
    · 10m
    ALERT: There are reports of a number of Baboons on the loose outside the Royal Prince Alfred Hospital.

    Are you in the area? Have you seen any Baboons? Let us know what you can see! #9News

  48. I’m not even that bothered about Hannah Beazley being a 3rd generation. Kim kind of bothered me with being appointed Governor. Ambassador to the US. Fair enough. It’s probably right that the post is a political appointment. But why would Kim want to be Governor of a state? Surely the most boring jobs in Australia. Especially after being a high profile politician and ambassador. The only answer could be money and a bit of prestige I suppose.

  50. frednk

    This one covers: GMOs, irrigation in the MDB and regulation of on-farm ecosystem services. In each case there is a link.

    This is one item that Bandt will be taking to Australian farmers:
    ‘The Australian Greens want:
    A moratorium on the further release of GMOs into the environment until there is an adequate scientific understanding of their long term impact on the environment, human and animal health. This includes the removal as far as possible of GMOs from Australian agriculture while the moratorium is in place.’
    https://greens.org.au/policies/genetically-modified-organisms
    Parsing that is fairly straightforward because the outcome sought is informed by the Greens Left ideology that hates Monsanto and Bayer and the likes.
    As with so many things that affect the bush that the Greens ‘want’ in their policy documents, ‘adequate’ is not explained. The particular kicker here is how long do GMOs need to be tested before the scientific understanding is ‘adequate’.
    ‘The removal as far as possible of GMOs from Australian agriculture…’ The consequence of this for rural and regional electorates is quite direct and quite large. The entire Australian cotton crop is GMO.
    No doubt the Bush Bandit will be able to mansplain his way through this one with his friendly farmers.

    ——————————————-

    Here is anothery that Bandt will be taking to Australian farmers:

    Just how much water does the Bush Bandit (Or is that the Hipster Ute Man?) want to take from farmers and give to the environment?

    As usual with the Greens, it is extremely difficult to get anything firm. Plenty of pious posturing! You certainly will not be hearing a figure from Rex, Peg, Adrian A, Firefox, Astrobleme and their Bludger fellow travellers, many of whom fall over themselves to explain that they are not Greens members while routinely taking the opportunity to slag Labor on behalf of the Greens. Strange, but true.

    So, do we have ANY evidence from the Greens about a number? Not from their official policy platforms. Reading between the lines, plenty. But how plenty?

    Someone has to do the work and so here it is: 605 Gigalitres.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/07/murray-darling-basin-plan-labor-to-decide-whether-it-will-back-key-changes

    That is 605,000 megalitres. Current permanent transfer market price (rubbery, cos it depends) is around $3,630,000,000. The permanent standing loss of agricultural production, export income, rural and regional town economies, and income lost by individual farmers, will be much, much more than that. Cos, as every Inner Urbs Greens knows in his/her bones, irrigation water has a massive multiplier effect in rural and regional economies.

    But the real number is probably going to be much more than that. But Bush Bandit is being coy about an actual overall figure. As well he might be when he is doing posh populist posturing back o’ the black stump.

    Now, I am not arguing against this Greens policy, per se. It needs fleshing out, proper costing, and so on. It also needs to be honest about who and what in the rural and regional electorates is going to be smashed by this water transfer policy. There is no need for justification: that people beyond the Inner Urbs have to suffer so that the Inner Urbs can enjoy their avos without ecological guilt goes without saying.

    No, this is not about the policy, per se. My main point is this. The Bush Bandit is going to do a bush tour to ‘connect with farmers’. Good on him, I say… just as long as he mentions to farmers that he is connecting with that he is going to disconnect them from GMO cotton AND that he is going to disconnect them from 605 Gigs of irrigation licences.

    Who knows? It might be a two way street. When they hear what he really wants, farmers might want to connect with the Bush Bandit, too!

    —————————-

    Here is something else for the Bush Bandit to take to farmers:

    ‘To develop and implement an effective framework — including financial incentives, pricing mechanisms, extension services and regulation — to ensure that farmers and land managers are rewarded for the repair and maintenance of ecosystem services.’

    https://greens.org.au/policies/agriculture

    To parse this you need to have an idea of ‘ecosystem services’. Here is a basic, high level set.

    Here is a basic set of ecoystem services that will regulated on farms by a mixture of rewards and punishments:

    regulating services – climate regulation, waste treatment, disease regulation
    provisioning services – terrestrial products, fresh water, raw materials, biochemical and genetic resources, fresh air
    cultural services – inspirational, recreation, tourism
    Supporting services – nutrient cycling, biologically mediated habitats, primary production.

    This, like all Greens policies needs a bit of parsing for those on whom it is going to impact. The first thing to note is that this policy will impact on farmers and will benefit Inner Urbs Greens. This is no surprise because that is bog standard for all Greens policies.

    But the $64 question is how the Bush Bandit will frame this in a simple and direct way for the farmers with whom he is about to ‘connect’. Here it is:

    We are going to establish a comprehensive set of regulations covering every single last aspect of your farming operation. If you don’t comply, we will punish you.

    To sum up the first three communications by Bandt when connecting with farmers:

    We are going to take away your GMO Cotton, we are going to take away 605 Gigs of your irrigation water and we are going to regulate absolutely everything on your farm and punish you if you disobey the regulations.

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