Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The latest Newspoll suggests the immediate effects of the bushfire crisis are unwinding, though more obviously so in the case of Albanese’s approval than Morrison’s disapproval.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest Newspoll, the first in three weeks, has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49 (though there is a view abroad that Newspoll’s preference model is short-changing Labor), with the Coalition steady on 38% of the primary vote, Labor down one to 34%. There is no evidence of change in Greens support with the change of leadership, which is steady at 13%, and One Nation are steady at 4%. A recent spike in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings has worn off, with his approval down four to 39% and disapproval up four to 44%, while Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 58%. We are told that Morrison has “closed the gap” on preferred prime minister, but must await more detail on that one.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that Anthony Albanese maintains a bare 41-40 lead as preferred prime minister, down from 43-38 last time. The BludgerTrack trends on the sidebar have been updated with the personal and preferred prime minister ratings. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1513.

UPDATE 2: Newspoll also has a question that asks whether respondents thought the bushfires were more the result of “global warming and climate change” or “a failure by state and territory governments to conduct adequate hazard reduction in winter to lower the risk”, plus a curious third option of “nothing stands out”. Despite the spikes in concern about climate change and the environment recorded by recent Ipsos Issues Monitor and Australia Institute surveys, this poll records 56% favouring the second of the options, compared with only 35% for global warming. However, 43% now favour lowering emissions as a priority over keeping energy prices down (42%) and preventing blackouts (11%), which compares with 24%, 63% and 9% in July 2018, and 41% now say they would pay more to meet emissions targets compared with 50% who would not, comparing with 30% and 58% in October 2017.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,168 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  2. “the public service is populated with “green” fifth columnists”…

    Liberal Party paranoia about lefty public servants never ceases to amaze.

  3. “Report calls for preselection targets to elect more culturally diverse MPs”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/report-calls-for-preselection-targets-to-elect-more-culturally-diverse-mps-20200225-p54448.html

    Thanks for posting this Peagus. My answer to that is no. Where do we draw the line with this? Labor party has already affirmative action for women.

    There was a QLD Labor state conference motion for a percentage of seats to be set side for LGBTIQ .

    And you could go further with this in terms of groups that are not represented and it just adds another layer of affirmative action and further dwindles rank and file members powers.

    If the Greens, Liberals, or any other party want to persue it thats up to them. But keep in mind in the political parties system where backroom deals and captain calls have been done at the expense of rank and file. This will just create a further disincentive to be a member of a political party where membership numbers have already been sagging in the modern era.

    I agree in diversity in parliament and it to be a reflection of society but not pursued at further expense to rank and file members.

  5. Last night I heard Dutton trying to reframe the security threats back to the Middle East. I listened to Pat Karvelas’s interview and I think Dutton mentioned the Hezbollah , even though he didnt’t want any single groups singled out .
    To me, he seemed annoyed that the bone had been pointed at the right-wing.

  6. dean fletcher@realDeanCool
    ·
    14h
    I spent a decade in retail management and I wouldn’t hire who I have become after 18 months of Newstart.

    I’m exhausted, mentally drained and financially crippled, and there’s no way out of this. Little wonder the suicide rate for the unemployed is almost 5x the national average.

  7. Cud Chewer

    I’ve watched a bit of their stuff. The name, Krystal Ball, is a bit off-putting. Her voice ever-so-slightly grating. But the message is argued in a highly intelligent manner and the two of them absolutely nail it!

  10. Things are getting out of hand with coronavirus – another plunge in US stock markets with the ASX to follow today. And Iran is infected, and spreading to neighbours – with this visible example:

    February 25, 2020 — 11.45pm

    Dubai: The head of Iran’s counter-coronavirus taskforce has tested positive for the virus himself, showing the challenges facing the Islamic Republic amid concerns the outbreak may be far wider than officially acknowledged.

    The announcement regarding Iraj Harirchi came after he gave a news conference with journalists in Tehran about the virus just one day prior, seeking to minimise the danger posed by the outbreak.

    Harirchi had been sweating and looked uncomfortable during the conference on Monday, local time. On Tuesday, Health Ministry spokesman Kianoush Jahanpour confirmed Harirchi had the virus.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/iran-official-running-coronavirus-taskforce-catches-virus-20200225-p544cd.html

  12. I hope nobody has a skiing holiday booked (last Covid-19 post…)

    #UPDATE Austria placed a hotel in the Alpine city of Innsbruck under lockdown after an Italian receptionist working there contracted the coronavirus, becoming one of the country’s first cases u.afp.com/3UCZ

  14. I hope nobody has a skiing holiday booked

    “All pupils who went on Guernsey grammar school’s February half term skiing trip to Piedmont have been sent home after one began “showing the relevant symptoms”, local authorities have said.”

    “Trinity Catholic College in Middlesbrough has announced it will close for the rest of the week after some pupils and staff “began showing flu-like symptoms” following a school skiing trip to northern Italy last week.”

  16. Tanya Plibersek
    @tanya_plibersek
    ·
    12m
    BREAKING: New data shows around 140,000 apprentices + trainees lost under the Libs. As a result, Australia now has shortages of bricklayers, plumbers, hairdressers, bakers, mechanics + other critical trades. Scott Morrison has created a tradie crisis.

  17. @Mexicanbeemer

    Why would the democrats complain about 1992,1996,2008,2012.

    In all 4 cases the president was the one who won the popular vote in addition to the electoral collage.

    In fact I only recall criticism of the 2000 but not the 2004 election result. (although the 2000 was mostly due to the Florida recount)

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