Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The latest Newspoll suggests the immediate effects of the bushfire crisis are unwinding, though more obviously so in the case of Albanese’s approval than Morrison’s disapproval.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest Newspoll, the first in three weeks, has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49 (though there is a view abroad that Newspoll’s preference model is short-changing Labor), with the Coalition steady on 38% of the primary vote, Labor down one to 34%. There is no evidence of change in Greens support with the change of leadership, which is steady at 13%, and One Nation are steady at 4%. A recent spike in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings has worn off, with his approval down four to 39% and disapproval up four to 44%, while Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 58%. We are told that Morrison has “closed the gap” on preferred prime minister, but must await more detail on that one.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that Anthony Albanese maintains a bare 41-40 lead as preferred prime minister, down from 43-38 last time. The BludgerTrack trends on the sidebar have been updated with the personal and preferred prime minister ratings. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1513.

UPDATE 2: Newspoll also has a question that asks whether respondents thought the bushfires were more the result of “global warming and climate change” or “a failure by state and territory governments to conduct adequate hazard reduction in winter to lower the risk”, plus a curious third option of “nothing stands out”. Despite the spikes in concern about climate change and the environment recorded by recent Ipsos Issues Monitor and Australia Institute surveys, this poll records 56% favouring the second of the options, compared with only 35% for global warming. However, 43% now favour lowering emissions as a priority over keeping energy prices down (42%) and preventing blackouts (11%), which compares with 24%, 63% and 9% in July 2018, and 41% now say they would pay more to meet emissions targets compared with 50% who would not, comparing with 30% and 58% in October 2017.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,168 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Re statistical significance, the margin of error on a well-conducted poll with a sample size of 1513 is about 2.6%. On that basis the changes in voting intention are not significant, but the drop in Albo’s net approval and the change in preferred Prime Minister ratings are.


  2. Scout says:
    Monday, February 24, 2020 at 7:37 am

    Newspoll result expected but depressing. If people swing back to the LNP so quickly it is going to be a long time with the LNP in control.

    They now have the narrative where they want it ie. let Labor do something while we do nothing then attack Labor.

    It is so transparent and so sad

    And the Greens as always as their to help. See to day more Labor must do this and labor must do that from the Greens. Not much on what the Greens are going to do to become something more than anti Labor dicks.

  3. Scout @ #98 Monday, February 24th, 2020 – 7:37 am

    Newspoll result expected but depressing. If people swing back to the LNP so quickly it is going to be a long time with the LNP in control.

    They now have the narrative where they want it ie. let Labor do something while we do nothing then attack Labor.

    It is so transparent and so sad

    Yep. They’ve figured out how to brainwash people into voting for them using all the tools available at their disposal, and Labor haven’t.

  4. Congratulations to Catherine King who showed her Labor colleagues how to stuff Fran Kelly back in her box AND slam the lid shut.
    Now if she could just bottle some of that and pass it round Labor might just find its mojo….

  5. frednk @ #102 Monday, February 24th, 2020 – 8:15 am


    Scout says:
    Monday, February 24, 2020 at 7:37 am

    Newspoll result expected but depressing. If people swing back to the LNP so quickly it is going to be a long time with the LNP in control.

    They now have the narrative where they want it ie. let Labor do something while we do nothing then attack Labor.

    It is so transparent and so sad

    And the Greens as always as their to help. See to day more Labor must do this and labor must do that from the Greens. Not much on what the Greens are going to do to become something more than anti Labor dicks.

    As I said when Scrote was still in Hawaii he’s ju………etc….etc..

  6. Surely the survey results on emissions reduction and people being prepared to pay more to achieve it is a good outcome, even though it’s more likely these results are because the bushfires are fresh in people’s minds and may revert back to what it was before once winter comes.

  10. It has been noteworthy that most of the Murdoch MSM has avoided publishing much detail about Morrison’s $4 billion in corrupt patronage deals.

    This is not only the most corrupt Federal government since Federation. The most corrupt segments of the MSM since Federation are complicit.

    Step by step we are moving from a functioning democracy to a functioning crony capitalism.

  11. “Anyway, get all excited about a 79 year old, who could drop off the perch at any moment, I’m still not buying what he’s trying to sell me. Or Michael Moore.”

    ***

    Bernie is 78, Cat. Just like Bloomberg remember?

    But honestly I actually give you credit for sticking to your guns and not jumping on the bandwagon and trying to pretend that you share his views all of a sudden. Remember, if he does indeed go on to win the nomination, you don’t actually have to like Bernie or his policies in order to support him against Trump. I didn’t like Clinton’s platform at all and knew she was a terrible candidate and would have been a terrible president, but I still supported her against Trump when she was the only one left because I realised that he was so much worse. I’ve also already said that I will support whoever the nominee is, although I must admit I would find it extremely difficult to support Bloomberg given what has been revealed about him recently. Trump is worse, yes, but gee I really hope it doesn’t come down to those two. We all owe Warren our gratitude for making that outcome far less likely than it was not long ago.

  12. Firefox says:
    Monday, February 24, 2020 at 12:39 am

    Whether a party is in the balance of power is a question of mathematics, not ideology.

    The Greens wield the BOP very effectively and I wouldn’t be holding your breath waiting for us to shift to the middle of the two establishment parties. The Greens are the party of the left.

    Yes. The arithmetic determines that Labor + Greens will never constitute a majority in the HOR. This is inexorable. The BOP will never exist. Instead, the Greens campaign against Labor keeps the LNP in power. So much for the self-styled Left. We’re fucked.

  13. ——————
    Step by step we are moving from a functioning democracy to a functioning crony capitalism.
    ——————
    Should be the platform for the ALP in 2022. Cleaning up the rotting state of our democracy. Start with strengthening the independence of institutions the Coalition have eroded. Then an ICAC style unit. Revisit O’Farrell style donation reforms. Go big. No fluff.

  14. The very idea that the Greens might be able to coerce Labor into a power-sharing deal is enough to drive voters to the LNP. If the reported attrition of Labor’s PV is reliable, the reason for it will be the Bandt doctrine. Voters will never embrace the Greens. Instead they will run from them. One way to do this, given the Bandt Strategy, is to run from Labor.

    The single best thing that could happen in Australian politics would be the dissolution of the Greens.

  15. Simon Katich @ #113 Monday, February 24th, 2020 – 5:41 am

    ——————
    Step by step we are moving from a functioning democracy to a functioning crony capitalism.
    ——————
    Should be the platform for the ALP in 2022. Cleaning up the rotting state of our democracy. Start with strengthening the independence of institutions the Coalition have eroded. Then an ICAC style unit. Revisit O’Farrell style donation reforms. Go big. No fluff.

    DRAIN THE SWAMP!!! 😆

  16. lizzie @ #94 Monday, February 24th, 2020 – 7:25 am

    C@t

    No, I agree they will stick with the decision, but the publicity is good, I think. I see that Arndt is getting a lot of support from the “not all men” types, naturally.

    And the Coalition will use the decision to say that the correct process was followed, and reviewed appropriately, yada, yada… Then everyone will go back to sleep and Bettina Arndt will go back to work reinstating 1950s conditions for male domination of society at home and in public.

  18. A new bushfire crisis is emerging as experts brace for an imminent surge in domestic violence

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-24/domestic-violence-anticipated-spike-bushfires-crisis/11980112

    For years experts have been studying the links between natural disasters and violence, with evidence suggesting events like earthquakes, hurricanes and bushfires can unmask or exacerbate domestic abuse, particularly against women, as a result of factors like trauma, financial hardship, unemployment and drug and alcohol use.

    In Australia, research conducted after Black Saturday in 2009 found there had been a reported increase in domestic abuse in bushfire-affected communities, with some women disclosing the crisis had triggered violence including in male partners who’d never before been abusive.

    Meanwhile a study by Melbourne University published last month shows women who were living in regions more severely affected by the 2009 fires experienced higher levels of violence than those in less severely affected areas.

    Now there are fears the same patterns may be playing out again. Safe Steps, Victoria’s 24-hour family violence support service, says it has been fielding calls from women reporting abuse in bushfire-affected regions, while lawyers are bracing for impact, rallying resources, ahead of an anticipated spike in violence in the wake of this summer’s devastating fire season.

    It comes following reports of an uptick in assaults in NSW, with domestic violence agencies concerned about a lack of crisis accommodation for survivors, particularly in remote areas.

  20. Are The Greens admitting defeat now? Er, styling themselves as The Balance of Power Party?

    That will go down like a lead balloon with the 90% of the electorate that don’t want anything to do with them and the party that will suffer from this political madness will be the party closest to them on the political spectrum. Again.

    I was happier when The Greens had their frolic with the idea that they would be the government one day. It kept them occupied and out of people’s hair.

  21. Steven @ #117 Monday, February 24th, 2020 – 8:46 am

    Mundo

    Re your post about Catherine King and the shrill Fran Kelly.

    I missed that. What actually happened?

    Thanks

    King just shut her down each time Kelly repeated a coalition lie.
    King used the word lie several times and will probably have to sit in the naughty corner when Albo finds out. Kelly was clearly taken by surprise and not expecting the sort of pushback from a Labor spokesperson she received.

  22. I wonder whether the results of the poll seeking causes of the horrendous bushfires would have thrown up a different set of numbers if another option [all of the above] had been included?
    Perhaps not.
    The irrigators are primed to suck the newly arrived fresh waters from the dry river bed system.
    The owners of houses built on sand dunes are looking for an instant fix against storm damage.
    Artificial ski fields?
    Risking the Great Artesian Basin for gas ?
    Tropical fish in Tasmania!
    We have a accidental PM, a remnant rum corp government and no-one capable of applying the shovel to the hen house.
    The insurance industry have readjusted their sight without the slightest hesitation.
    When Bondi Beach is deposited in Rosebay after a particularly nasty storm will we get a reaction?
    The Morrisom LNP government sees itself as Sydney Harbour. Many now see the Morrison LNP government as having two heads!

  23. Morning all

    Much appreciation BK for todays reports.

    Jenauthor

    Hope you continue to post. Ignoring annoying posters is the way to go.

  24. Fiona Stanley’s 2020s vision: please can we move beyond GDP?

    How good would it be to identify the best pathways to improve health and wellbeing and to ensure the information is used in policymaking?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/23/fiona-stanleys-2020s-vision-please-can-we-move-beyond-gdp

    What’s wrong with GDP? It is defined as the total monetary or market value of all the goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. It functions as a comprehensive score card of economic health. Despite its limitations, GDP has become the key tool to guide policymakers, investors and businesses in making strategic financial decisions.

    For many, GDP is accepted as the absolute indicator of a nation’s failure or success, way beyond its narrow economic focus. And the media and politicians love a single index to measure success, however flawed it might be.

    What’s wrong with GDP? It is defined as the total monetary or market value of all the goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. It functions as a comprehensive score card of economic health. Despite its limitations, GDP has become the key tool to guide policymakers, investors and businesses in making strategic financial decisions.

    For many, GDP is accepted as the absolute indicator of a nation’s failure or success, way beyond its narrow economic focus. And the media and politicians love a single index to measure success, however flawed it might be.

    From the 1950s, some economists and policymakers began to question its limitations as the singular measure of a society’s success. GDP gives the same value to sales of goods that are harmful to our health and wellbeing – such as alcohol, tobacco and guns – as to sales that are of benefit. It tells us nothing about standard of living, quality of our environment, our houses, our education system, our health or how our children and disabled are cared for. It does not take into account informal economic activity such as unpaid work which is significant in most countries. It focuses on consumption rather than production and misses out on valuable interactions between innovative cooperative activities.

    And while GDP rises it does not show the costs to the environment or to income inequalities that may result from such activities. Interestingly (given our current devastating fires and now storms), after the Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria GDP went up by $4bn. Ross Gittins in the Sydney Morning Herald has reminded us that GDP, “that great god of mammon”, is 60 this year and “it is no longer fit for purpose as economic growth does not measure human wellbeing”.

  26. AR, The Guardian

    The bigger question is whether Australia’s workforce is being prepared for the inevitable market change. Based on history, it doesn’t look like it.

  27. C@tmomma @ #99 Monday, February 24th, 2020 – 6:42 am

    I just read this article:

    Tom Rabe reports that the head of the world’s largest coal port says it must transition away from the fossil fuel before it’s too late, but the NSW government is stopping it.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/state-deal-blocking-world-s-largest-coal-port-from-fossil-fuel-exit-20200221-p5433v.html

    Apparently, the NSW Coalition government put into contracts when it sold the Port of Newcastle to a funds management company and a Chinese company, that Coal and only Coal must be shipped from there, Kooragang Island, until 2068! Even though the CEO of the Port believes the Port of Newcastle needs to transition away from shipping Coal. But his hands are tied.

    So, complainers here can say, ‘Labor must do this and Labor must do that’ but as this article shows, even if they did come to government that the Coalition have, once again, made sure that due to a contract they signed an enormous compensation bill would have to be paid by a NSW State Labor government to break the contract.

    That appears to be a bad case to make your point about compensation. If the Port and a future Labor government want to mutually amend the contract then no compensation would arise.

  28. Albanese and others in Labor need to stop trying to appease the media , by talking about what the media wants the public to hear i.e Coal , so Morrison and his cronies bellowing about Labor talking about coal.

    Labor has no chance , Labor needs to wakeup and stop appeasing the media , the media will never be friends of the Labor party

    Labor somewhere needs to find leaders who will not be scared of the foreign own media in Australia

  29. That flat earther who died trying to prove the earth is flat was being filmed by a media crew for a news story about his endeavours and his beliefs.

    Is this what the media has come to now?

  30. Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, has acknowledged “shortcomings” in China’s response to the coronavirus epidemic and warned that the country was facing its most serious public health crisis “in decades”.

    The unusually frank comments came as the global epidemic gathered pace.

    South Korea’s president put the country on “red alert” and Iran closed schools across 14 provinces after the death toll there climbed to eight.

    Speaking in a video conference with officials responding to the outbreak, Mr Xi said there were “obvious shortcomings in the response to the epidemic,” which he described as “a crisis for us and .. a big test”.

    “At present, the epidemic situation is still grim and complex, and prevention and control work is in the most difficult and critical stage,” Mr Xi said, in comments carried by state television.

    “The outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia will inevitably have a relatively big impact on the economy and society.”

    China has been praised by the World Health Organisation (WHO) for its response to the epidemic, but has been criticised for silencing early warnings from a whistleblower doctor who has since died from the virus.

  31. C
    “That flat earther who died trying to prove the earth is flat was being filmed by a media crew for a news story about his endeavours and his beliefs.

    Is this what the media has come to now?”

    How Ironic that his last thought would have been that the earth is a globe, after all

  32. Confessions @ #129 Monday, February 24th, 2020 – 9:02 am

    That flat earther who died trying to prove the earth is flat was being filmed by a media crew for a news story about his endeavours and his beliefs.

    Is this what the media has come to now?

    At least since Evil Knieval times. The media said they are they to record, not to stop these people.

  33. Just catching up with this part of the poll:

    “Newspoll survey says the main cause of bushfires polled was :
    climate change – 35%
    hazard reduction – 56%”

    How dumb is Australia!

  34. GDP is not intended to measure ‘human wellbeing’. It measures output/income at market prices. Is Fiona saying we shouldn’t measure output/income? I doubt it. The LNP might like to stop measuring GDP. They already have, in a way. Rather than using GDP to describe the economy, they use just one notion – the budget balance. This is completely idiotic. It tells us nothing much about either the economy or human wellbeing.

    Needless to say, it cannot make much sense to consider human wellbeing as if it is separate from material wellbeing. We have to measure both. Of course, GDP is a measure of a ‘flow’. Wellbeing is more like a ‘stock’ than a flow. They are quite different sorts of concepts.

  35. As much as I view the Greens and their fairy floss policies with disdain (even sadness for the way they have deluded their voters into believing they are achieving something), the only answer is for them to join in a Coalition with Labor.

    As long as their policies produce the opposite of what is required regarding the Climate they’ll have something to whinge about. You’d almost have to believe it was a deliberate strategy of self-perpetuation.

    The nearest star to them is not the Liberal-Nationals government. It’s Labor. And they will continue to suck mass, energy and votes from their political near-neighbour, until they are brought on board, with the aim of taking some of the rougher, more extreme edges off their naive policies, so some actual progress can be made (instead of the celebration of pointless symbolism).

    The Greens need a good dose of Labor pragmatism. Labor needs a healthy dollop of environmental policy reinvigoration. Both are floundering at the moment: the Greens caught up in a mire of impossible daydreams, Labor entangled with the glorious legacy, but stranded asset of the dwindling unions.

    Hardheads on both sides will say such an alliance is out of the question, impossible both to broker and to maintain. But it has to be done or else we’re doomed to seeing our country looted by a local and overseas Spivocracy then, when bled dry, abandoned to its fate.

    Such hardheads should take their pensions now and shuffle off into the sunset. They are holding things back for their own parties and, more vitally, for the planet.

    The glory days are not coming back for Labor, and they will never arrive for the Greens until the common sense solution – coalition – is put into practice, the sooner the better.

  36. Scott @ #128 Monday, February 24th, 2020 – 9:02 am

    Albanese and others in Labor need to stop trying to appease the media , by talking about what the media wants the public to hear i.e Coal , so Morrison and his cronies bellowing about Labor talking about coal.

    Labor has no chance , Labor needs to wakeup and stop appeasing the media , the media will never be friends of the Labor party

    Labor somewhere needs to find leaders who will not be scared of the foreign own media in Australia

    After her appearance on Fran’s little show this morning Catherine King might be the go.

  37. It’s Time @ #127 Monday, February 24th, 2020 – 8:58 am

    C@tmomma @ #99 Monday, February 24th, 2020 – 6:42 am

    I just read this article:

    Tom Rabe reports that the head of the world’s largest coal port says it must transition away from the fossil fuel before it’s too late, but the NSW government is stopping it.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/state-deal-blocking-world-s-largest-coal-port-from-fossil-fuel-exit-20200221-p5433v.html

    Apparently, the NSW Coalition government put into contracts when it sold the Port of Newcastle to a funds management company and a Chinese company, that Coal and only Coal must be shipped from there, Kooragang Island, until 2068! Even though the CEO of the Port believes the Port of Newcastle needs to transition away from shipping Coal. But his hands are tied.

    So, complainers here can say, ‘Labor must do this and Labor must do that’ but as this article shows, even if they did come to government that the Coalition have, once again, made sure that due to a contract they signed an enormous compensation bill would have to be paid by a NSW State Labor government to break the contract.

    That appears to be a bad case to make your point about compensation. If the Port and a future Labor government want to mutually amend the contract then no compensation would arise.

    The point I was trying to make was that, Labor may indeed want to amend the contract, and that would be a good thing, on that we can all agree, however, the poison pill in the contract, put there by the Coalition, is that a massive compensation bill would be demanded by the companies that were signatories to the contract. Whether they believe Coal contributes to Climate Change, or not. It’s the commercial transaction they signed up for, not whether they believe in Anthropogenic Climate Change, that they would need to be compensated for by an incoming NSW Labor government who wanted to do something about it.

  38. Socrates @ #133 Monday, February 24th, 2020 – 9:07 am

    Just catching up with this part of the poll:

    “Newspoll survey says the main cause of bushfires polled was :
    climate change – 35%
    hazard reduction – 56%”

    How dumb is Australia!

    That dumb.
    Morrison is Prime minister.
    That dumb.
    The Liberal party know how to play to their audience.
    That’s smart.

  39. C@t:

    Evil Knieval was a celebrity who undertook stunts made for TV whereas this man was just a flat out ignorant fool. There is no news value in seeing a man try to prove something everyone knows cannot be proved because it is wrong.

  41. Yessirrebob @ #131 Monday, February 24th, 2020 – 9:05 am

    C
    “That flat earther who died trying to prove the earth is flat was being filmed by a media crew for a news story about his endeavours and his beliefs.

    Is this what the media has come to now?”

    How Ironic that his last thought would have been that the earth is a globe, after all

    The world is a rounder place without him.

  42. coalition – is put into practice, the sooner the better.

    When I first arrived on PB pre-2010 I advocated for an alliance for a few years. It was derided by many Laborites then and positively causes foaming at the mouth by the same people today.

    Pigs might fly.

  43. Socrates says:
    Monday, February 24, 2020 at 9:07 am
    Just catching up with this part of the poll:

    “Newspoll survey says the main cause of bushfires polled was :
    climate change – 35%
    hazard reduction – 56%”

    How dumb is Australia!

    This isn’t so much about about dumb or smart. When things go wrong, someone must be blamed. Politics is mostly about blame-assignment. The LNP have managed to assign blame to a likely cause and therefore to a plausible suspect. This works for them all the time. This is just another example of voters buying blame/shame. Politics in Australia is not about facts, reason, hope or achievement. It is about blame/shame.

  44. Scott @ #128 Monday, February 24th, 2020 – 9:02 am

    Albanese and others in Labor need to stop trying to appease the media , by talking about what the media wants the public to hear i.e Coal , so Morrison and his cronies bellowing about Labor talking about coal.

    Labor has no chance , Labor needs to wakeup and stop appeasing the media , the media will never be friends of the Labor party

    Labor somewhere needs to find leaders who will not be scared of the foreign own media in Australia

    Labor somewhere needs to find a leader who will not be scared of Scrott and Co.

  45. Socrates @ #133 Monday, February 24th, 2020 – 9:07 am

    Just catching up with this part of the poll:

    “Newspoll survey says the main cause of bushfires polled was :
    climate change – 35%
    hazard reduction – 56%”

    How dumb is Australia!

    I’m confused about this part of the poll. Does the Hazard Reduction 56% figure represent the fact that hazard reduction that got away caused some of the massive bushfires, or that they believe there wasn’t enough hazard reduction done?

  46. Yep.

    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Tea Pain
    @TeaPainUSA
    SANITY UPDATE: For those pundits claimin’ the Dem primary is over, consider this: The current Dem front-runner has acquired less than 2 percent of the necessary delegates to win the nomination, only 9 more delegates than the 2nd place candidate.

  47. Scott says:
    Monday, February 24, 2020 at 9:02 am
    Albanese and others in Labor need to stop trying to appease the media , by talking about what the media wants the public to hear i.e Coal , so Morrison and his cronies bellowing about Labor talking about coal.

    Labor has no chance , Labor needs to wakeup and stop appeasing the media , the media will never be friends of the Labor party

    Labor somewhere needs to find leaders who will not be scared of the foreign own media in Australia

    If you want to make a difference, join Labor rather than telling them what they should or shouldn’t do.

  48. Touche

    The Hoarse Whisperer
    @HoarseWisperer
    ·
    5h
    While he didn’t prove the earth is flat, he confirmed the existence of gravity.
    Quote Tweet

    The Washington Post
    @washingtonpost
    · 6h
    “Mad” Mike Hughes dies in homemade rocket disaster on mission to prove Earth is flat https://wapo.st/39VfYnq

  49. “I was happier when The Greens had their frolic with the idea that they would be the government one day. It kept them occupied and out of people’s hair.”

    ***

    It’s ok, we’ll let you and Labor keep dreaming about being the “party of government” while your vote goes backwards. 😛

    Meanwhile, we’ll keep working hard to protect Australia and be a voice for those who have none and are being left behind by the two party establishment.

  50. Pegasus says:
    Monday, February 24, 2020 at 9:14 am
    coalition – is put into practice, the sooner the better.
    When I first arrived on PB pre-2010 I advocated for an alliance for a few years. It was derided by many Laborites then and positively causes foaming at the mouth by the same people today.

    Pigs might fly.

    Quite so. Labor should not and will not enter a deal with another Party that is committed to destroying Labor and who daily practices politics with that goal in mind.

    The Greens could best serve their values by dissolving themselves.

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