Essential Research: carbon, coal and coronavirus

A quick look at this week’s Essential Research report, and a deeper one at last week’s ANU survey on the impact of the bushfires.

The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research finds 75% support for a net zero carbon pollution target by 2050, with only 25% opposed; 32% wishing to see coal-fired power plants phased out as soon as possible and another 47% wanting an end to subsidies and government support, compared with 21% wanting government support for both existing and new plants; and 80% support for the government preventing people entering the country from China due to coronavirus, with only 6% opposed. There are further questions and breakdowns in the report, but not a lot to get excited about on the whole – I can only beseech the pollster to bite the bullet and get back in the voting intention game.

To add more meat to this post, I will instead probe deeper into the report on the political impact of the bushfires published last week by the Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods. This was based on a regular panel survey conducted by the centre on a roughly quarterly basis, largely dealing with questions such as satisfaction with governments, public institutions and life in general. Since most of the respondents had also completed previous surveys, the report is able to explore changes in voting intention and attitudes over time. On this occasion, the survey was supplemented by questions on respondents’ exposure to the bushfires.

The study found a slump in electoral support for the Coalition, from 42.6% in the October survey to 37.2%, with Labor up from 33.7% to 35.8%, the Greens up from 14.4% to 14.7% (which is obviously too high at both ends) and others up from 9.3% to 11.2% (after excluding non-respondents, of which there were 5.1% in October and 6.6% in January). However, it did not find evidence that the fall in Coalition support was particularly pronounced among those who had been exposed to the bushfires.

Some of the factors that did associate with defection from the Coalition suggest an intensification of trends evident at the election, with university-educated voters more likely to have abandoned the Coalition and voters aged 75 and over less likely to have done so. However, the Coalition had a particular drop in support outside capital cities, though not in a way that suggested exposure to the fires was the reason. Out of the sample of 618 Coalition defectors, 43.9% supported Labor, 14.3% the Greens and 24.7% others, with the remainder uncommitted.

Consistent with the findings of the Ipsos Issues Monitor survey in January, the number of respondents rating environmental issues as the first or second most important facing the country rose from 41.5% in the October survey to 49.7%. For whatever reason, there was a significant effect here for indirect exposure to the bushfire (having friends or family whose properties were damaged or threatened, having travel plans affected, or exposure to smoke or anxiety), but not for direct exposure. However, as the report notes, what the survey registered as concern for environmental issues extended to blaming “the greenies” for the extent of the fires.

Support for new coal mines was down from 45.3% in the June survey to 37.0%, with the fall particularly pronounced among Coalition voters, down from 71.8% to 57.5%. However, those directly exposed to the bushfires who had expressed support for coal mines in June were relatively resistant to this trend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Essential Research: carbon, coal and coronavirus”

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  2. Yessirrebob @ #449 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 7:10 pm

    Peg, according to ALP members I’ve spoken to the “democratic socialist” part of the manifesto, has been dropped long ago
    I think you’d find that they are far more into Keynsian Economics as a way to foster social mobility.

    The Sussex St mob has a unique way of fostering social mobility don’t they ‘bob’.

  3. “Mexicanbeemersays:
    Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 7:12 pm
    Blobbit
    Or if they focused on service delivery instead of slipping into us against them language.”

    Yup. Symbolism matters, unfortunately.

    The right has amply demonstrated that.

  6. From a leading US Fund manager MFS:

    Think markets are tumbling because of coronavirus? Robert Almeida, global investment strategist at the $800 billion US funds management titan MFS, says you should think again.

    He argues the virus outbreak is simply a catalyst for the exposure of the misallocation of capital that happens in every late-cycle market. The coronavirus has shaken global markets, but it’s not the fundamental problem. In the dot com bubble it was the misallocation of capital into tech, media and telco stocks.

    Prior to the GFC, too much money went into the US housing market and fixed-interest products leveraged to that.

    This time, Almeida argues, too much capital has been allocated to companies that have used debt and financial engineering (including the controversial practice of reverse factoring) to pump up their profits, and have then handed too much of those profits back to investors, instead of re-investing them.

    He says the coronavirus is forcing investors to reassess the durability of the returns they’ve been getting – and investors don’t like what they see.

    “Coronavirus might be the spark that lights the fire, but from my vantage point what you have is an overvalued financial market landscape, with deteriorating cash flow that you’re getting in return for this,” Almeida said at the Active Advantage event in Melbourne on Wednesday, after another ugly sell-off on Wall Street spilled into Australia’s markets.

    “Valuations were excessive. Whether it was the coronavirus or something else, I think markets are mean-reverting to where they should.”

    Wall Street’s losses for the week now sit at 7.3 per cent; the ASX 200 is down 6.2 per cent since Friday.

  7. P, my maternal Grandmother was born in Romania also, she moved to Vienna as a child, and fled Austria one month before Krystal Nacht. She and her three sisters were the only ones of her family that made it out. One of my Brothers best Mates also fled the Romanian Communist regime as a kid. He doesn’t have much good to say about that Mob.
    Needless to say that the only instance where I have seen “socialism” work in any way, is on a micro level, such as a Kibbutz.

  10. Y

    Except for my father and his parents, all his side of the family were wiped out in the holocaust. After the war my father was stateless…Switzerland kicked him out…..he chose Australia as his destination….worked in factories to pay off his assisted passage….his parents followed him later.

  11. Rex, I live in Victoria, you’d have to speak from someone with links to the NSW branch for that.

    Peg, I can only go by the Members that I have spoken to.

    Besides, we all know in practice that the ALP is more into Keynsian economics as a way to foster better conditions for working people

  13. Bob Brown Foundation forest protesters no longer face big fines after regulator withdraws ban

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-26/bob-brown-foundation-worksafe-ban-thrown-out/12003392

    Forest protesters in Tasmania no longer have the potential of a huge fine hanging over their heads after the state’s workplace safety regulator lifted a ban on their activities.

    The Bob Brown Foundation received a notice from the state’s workplace safety regulator last week, threatening fines of up to $500,000 if alleged unsafe activities by protesters didn’t stop.

    It came after protesters rallied in the state’s north-west to stop the state government-owned Sustainable Timbers Tasmania from harvesting trees in an area of the Tarkine.

    An appeal against the notice by the Bob Brown Foundation was dropped on Wednesday after the regulator withdrew it in the Hobart Magistrates Court.

  15. Iran stats: 95 cases 15 deaths.

    …assuming the number of deaths is correct then the number of cases, consistent with everywhere else, would be around 750.

  16. Y

    My father was given a choice between Australia, UK, NZ, USA, Canada…he was attracted to the wide open spaces of the Australian landscape.

  17. Underemployment in Australia is on the rise and it may only get worse, experts say

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-26/underemployment-on-the-rise-and-may-get-worse/12003092

    Roy Morgan Research analysed 15 years of research and found the number of underemployed people had jumped almost 450,000 since 2005.
    :::
    According to the Roy Morgan research, 8.7 per cent of the workforce is underemployed, slightly higher than the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) official figure of 8.5 per cent.

    And you are more likely to be underemployed if you are a woman, a worker in your teens or 20s, or you work in three industries where part-time work is common.

    The recreation and personal sector, which includes hospitality and fitness workers, is the industry with the highest underemployment, at 20 per cent, followed closely by retail with over 19 per cent underemployment, and community services, which includes teachers and carers, at 10.5 per cent.
    :::
    The ABS uses a strict definition to calculate its unemployment and underemployment statistics so that it can compare Australia’s results with that of other countries.

    A person is counted as being employed if they work one hour a week.

  20. bw

    …assuming the number of deaths is correct then the number of cases, consistent with everywhere else, would be around 750.

    By George! You’ve blown the lid off the whole conspiracy.

  22. I had a laugh this afternoon. Nephew takes a booking for a site in the trailer park. They arrive; they were in their early twenties. Escorting them to their site, they said it was “great”. A half an hour thereafter they came to the office complaining that the place was full of “oldies”, whereupon they demanded a refund, which was duly complied with – the customer’s always right.

  25. “ You do realise the ALP manifesto of years long gone ….

    https://www.alp.org.au/media/1574/alp_national_constitution.pdf

    ALP National Constitution December 2018

    The Australian Labor Party is a democratic socialist party and has the objective of the democratic socialisation of industry, production, distribution and exchange, to the extent necessary to eliminate exploitation and other anti-social features in these fields.
    There were moves afoot to expunge the S word from its constitution. Has it done so now?”

    _____

    I’m amazed you aren’t a member, lil’ Green pony. … I suspect it’s because you are too busy keeping the aspidistras flying …

    Me? One of the highlights of the year for the past 30 years is receiving my party card for the next year and then inking out that stupid cant with a permanent marking pen.

    Contemporary relevance, comrades. Contemporary relevance.

  26. Firefox:

    Yessirrebob, you are obviously not aware, but Labor’s negative gearing and CGT plans are just weaker versions of Greens policies that they adopted in the lead-up to the 2016 election.

    The Greens will phase out the 50 per cent capital gains tax discount to ease pressure on Australia’s unaffordable housing market, generating savings of $119.5 billion over ten years.
    The concession would be reduced by 10 per cent every year for five years and would run parallel with the Greens plan to phase out negative gearing.
    Greens Co-Deputy Leader and Housing spokesperson Senator for WA Scott Ludlam said the fully costed plan would apply to all forms of capital gains including housing, art and investments.

    Well as with chemotherapy it’s often the lowest (“weakest”) effective dose/policy that’s needed, not psuedo-macho crap.

    It may or may not be appropriate to remove NG entirely, partially or not at all (NG has a very limited effect in the absence of an excessive CGT discount)

    Eliminating the CGT discount completely and replacing it with nothing at all does not make any sense at all, unless one’s principal desire is to punish certain types of economic activity and otherwise damn the torpedoes.

  27. Speaking of the US election process, on the Simpsons at the Moment, to quote the blurb “Homer becomes the host of a political talk show, starts an “everyman” movement in Springfield, and ends up hand picking Ted Nugent as Republican nomination.

    They predicted Trump, will this one also come to fruition ?

  32. ‘Bellwether says:
    Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 8:25 pm

    Mavis

    There’s nothing quite carries the weight of a grudging offer of support from a proven loser.’

    Bellwether is clearly referring to Sander’s support for Clinton after she beat him in the primaries.

  33. ” The Greens will phase out the 50 per cent capital gains tax discount to ease pressure on Australia’s unaffordable housing market, generating savings of $119.5 billion over ten years.

    The concession would be reduced by 10 per cent every year for five years and would run parallel with the Greens plan to phase out negative gearing.”

    Excellent policy.

  36. Bob Brown Foundation activist ban on protesting in Tasmanian forest lifted by court

    WorkSafe Tasmania last week issued a ban on the protesters over ‘unsafe behaviours’ and threatened fines of up to $500,000

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/26/bob-brown-foundation-activist-ban-on-protesting-in-tasmanian-forest-lifted-by-court

    “It prompted legal action from the foundation, with Bob Brown labelling the edict unconstitutional.
    :::
    Brown said anti-logging activists in the northwest Tarkine rainforest remain undeterred.
    :::
    The foundation argued the ban was too broad-ranging and was contrary to the constitution because it stopped communication about political matters.”

  37. Poroti
    Yes. A great song for a heady time. I remember seeing it for the first time, on Rage. A dreamy song for the early hours.

    They say Roback was the multi-instrumentalist of the two. But not only did Hope’s voice take it to the stars, she also played the Tamborine like an angel. And harmonica! Not all at once – obviously.

  38. Labor won’t focus on ‘just transition’ for coal workers despite union requests

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/unions-fears-for-coal-power-workers-not-on-labor-s-policy-agenda-20200226-p544nl.html

    “Federal Labor’s regional jobs taskforce won’t focus on major unions’ calls for a “just transition” plan for the 8000 workers in coal-fired power plants, many of whom are expected to lose their jobs in the next 15 years.

    Labor’s Regional Jobs Taskforce was announced by Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese last week, when he committed the party to a net zero emissions policy by 2050.
    :::
    Two major unions, the CFMEU and ACTU, have lobbied since 2016 for Australia’s 8000 coal power plant workers to be covered by a “just transition” policy like Germany rolled out for its 20,000 brown coal workers – which included salaried retirement for those aged over 55, and job placement and retraining options for all workers.”

  39. BW
    85% of those who voted for Sanders in the primaries voted for Hillary in November. Sanders spoke at over 40 rallies for Hillary compared to approx 6 by Hillary for Obama in 2008.

    The Sanders team warned Hillary of the need to campaign in Wisconsin and Michigan. They were ignored and the rest is history.

    At the moment Sanders is leading Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania and depending on which poll just behind or just in front of Trump in Wisconsin. A long way to go but there is no reason to suggest at this stage Trump wins easily if Sanders is the nominee.

  41. Pegasus

    Greens senator Mehreen Faruqi

    Peter Dutton’s response to a far-right threat shows how little has changed since Christchurch

    Many Australian Muslims, myself included, feel the sustained abuse we’ve received over the years isn’t taken seriously

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/26/peter-duttons-response-to-a-far-right-threat-shows-how-little-has-changed-since-christchurch

    In a couple of weeks, I’ll head to Christchurch to be with the Muslim community as we mark the first anniversary of the massacre that took so many of our own.

    I’ll go knowing that nothing has been done to address the environment of hate in Australia that fostered the extremism of one of our citizens who now stands accused of the murder of 51 innocent Muslims in New Zealand.

    Amid the sadness for those lost and the grief of those left behind, I had moments of hope this might be a wake-up call for our government. Hope this tragedy might spur it to act on the racism that permeates our society and breeds violence.

    Peter Dutton’s response to the threat of far-right extremism this week confirmed for me that my hope was misplaced. After the head of Asio warned “the extreme right-wing threat is real and it is growing” and spoke of neo-Nazi cells gathering to train, inspect weapons and salute swastikas, Dutton seemed to dismiss that the motivating ideology was relevant to violence.

    If the minister responsible for our safety doesn’t get that racism and hatred drives violent attacks on Muslims around the world, we cannot hope to stop it.

    By consistently minimising the racism of the extreme right, Dutton’s dismissive attitude gives a free pass to those in the media and parliament who stoke the fires of hatred. So does the false equivalence he likes to draw between fascist and anti-racist politics. Last year he claimed I was “just as bad” as Fraser Anning for calling out white supremacy after the Christchurch massacre.

    We know all too well the intense scrutiny and immense resources dedicated to forms of extremism that suit the government’s narrative. Because rightwing threats against Muslims seem not to suit their agenda, many Australian Muslims, myself included, feel the sustained abuse and threats of violence we’ve received over the years aren’t taken seriously.

    The Christchurch anniversary is a painful reminder of the personal toll those threats take. When we raise our voices we are told we have a victim mentality or we are being too politically correct. But Muslims know the real danger of hatred. We live in fear of what it will unleash on our community.

    It’s undeniable the rise of the far-right has been accompanied by a rise in Islamophobia, with girls and women the most likely targets. Charles Sturt University’s 2019 Islamophobia in Australia report found harassment of Muslims in public spaces had jumped by 30% and racist attacks requiring hospitalisation had doubled.

    Islamophobia stoked by the asylum seeker and refugees policies of both major parties over decades designed to pander to the xenophobic and racist sentiments of swinging voters in marginal electorates.

    Stoking fear of the “other”. Fortress Australia.

    Have you run your interpretation by Mehreen Faruqi?

    The reason I ask is that I held one end of a banner, with her holding the other end, on a picket line about 10 years ago. We knew each other, and talked comfortably about the issues. She knew I was a member of the Labor party, and I knew she was a member of the Greens, but that did not have her refusing to hold the other end of the banner.

    Has something changed with Mehreen, or are you trying to stir up Labor / Greens wars, the greatest beneficiary of which is the conservative side of politics?

  42. Bernie did 40 rallies for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign. He campaigned assiduously for her. But she was a weak centrist candidate who could not defeat the most unsuitable presidential nominee in American political history.

    Kim Beazley, a weak centrist leader from Australia, who lost both of the national campaigns that he led, is advising Democratic voters to choose a centrist as their nominee. I hope they reject his naive advice.

  44. What sort of period of self-quarantine should we be planning for?

    1. None.
    2. Two weeks.
    3. One month.
    4. Three months.
    5. Longer than three months.

  45. Douglas and Milko @ #491 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 9:09 pm

    Has something changed with Mehreen, or are you trying to stir up Labor / Greens wars, the greatest beneficiary of which is the conservative side of politics?

    You mean, like the Labor Right does here, day in, day out, until it becomes so tedious that you just want to slit your wrists at their stupid, self-destructive behaviour?

    You mean like that?

  47. It may come as a surprise to some of the extreme lefties but Sanders is actually a human being and is therefore imperfect*.

    1. Sanders kept going against Clinton after he should have stopped.
    2. Sanders’ supporters in very large numbers (15%) stayed at home, went all grumpy and helped get Trump in. Idiots. If the Warren, Buttigieg, Bloomberg etc, etc, etc, supporters do the same then they will do to Sanders what Sanders supporters did to Clinton.

    *What else would dote on the Soviet Union and barrack for Xi, Castro, and the Ayatollah du jour while living in three houses at once?

  48. ar

    I’m always happy to take any money that ‘sane’ young people either don’t want or can’t manage*. I’m happy to take it as a direct gift or as profits.

    I am also perfectly happy not to work hard for either if that would make the young people happier still.

    Further, I am perfectly happy to chainsaw down all the trees I have planted so that the young people who reckon that profits have fucked up the planet are right.

    *Usually not much, of course.

  49. Mehreen Faruqi

    ‘I’m in politics because I want to shake up the status quo’: The Greens’ Mehreen Faruqi heads to Canberra

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-m-in-politics-because-i-want-to-shake-up-the-status-quo-the-greens-mehreen-faruqi-heads-to-canberra-20180817-p4zy3r.html

    “In Fraser Anning’s Australia, Faruqi would never have come here from Pakistan in 1992. She never would have managed major engineering projects across the state, never would have raised a family in Sydney’s inner-south, never would have entered the NSW upper house and certainly never would have joined Anning in the federal Senate, as she will on Monday.

    Anning’s incindiary speech was “the worst of Australia”, Faruqi says. As a Muslim woman – the first to sit in the Senate – she gets to see the country’s darker side more than most, whether it be “toxic racism and sexism” on social media or the constant struggle to prove herself as a loyal Australian.
    :::
    Faruqi says the strong reaction to Anning’s speech this week was “good to see”, but condemns what she calls dog-whistling from both major parties on migrants, African crime and asylum seekers. She isn’t yet convinced by Malcolm Turnbull’s oft-repeated declaration Australia is the most successful multicultural nation in the world.”

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