The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research finds 75% support for a net zero carbon pollution target by 2050, with only 25% opposed; 32% wishing to see coal-fired power plants phased out as soon as possible and another 47% wanting an end to subsidies and government support, compared with 21% wanting government support for both existing and new plants; and 80% support for the government preventing people entering the country from China due to coronavirus, with only 6% opposed. There are further questions and breakdowns in the report, but not a lot to get excited about on the whole – I can only beseech the pollster to bite the bullet and get back in the voting intention game.
To add more meat to this post, I will instead probe deeper into the report on the political impact of the bushfires published last week by the Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods. This was based on a regular panel survey conducted by the centre on a roughly quarterly basis, largely dealing with questions such as satisfaction with governments, public institutions and life in general. Since most of the respondents had also completed previous surveys, the report is able to explore changes in voting intention and attitudes over time. On this occasion, the survey was supplemented by questions on respondents’ exposure to the bushfires.
The study found a slump in electoral support for the Coalition, from 42.6% in the October survey to 37.2%, with Labor up from 33.7% to 35.8%, the Greens up from 14.4% to 14.7% (which is obviously too high at both ends) and others up from 9.3% to 11.2% (after excluding non-respondents, of which there were 5.1% in October and 6.6% in January). However, it did not find evidence that the fall in Coalition support was particularly pronounced among those who had been exposed to the bushfires.
Some of the factors that did associate with defection from the Coalition suggest an intensification of trends evident at the election, with university-educated voters more likely to have abandoned the Coalition and voters aged 75 and over less likely to have done so. However, the Coalition had a particular drop in support outside capital cities, though not in a way that suggested exposure to the fires was the reason. Out of the sample of 618 Coalition defectors, 43.9% supported Labor, 14.3% the Greens and 24.7% others, with the remainder uncommitted.
Consistent with the findings of the Ipsos Issues Monitor survey in January, the number of respondents rating environmental issues as the first or second most important facing the country rose from 41.5% in the October survey to 49.7%. For whatever reason, there was a significant effect here for indirect exposure to the bushfire (having friends or family whose properties were damaged or threatened, having travel plans affected, or exposure to smoke or anxiety), but not for direct exposure. However, as the report notes, what the survey registered as concern for environmental issues extended to blaming “the greenies” for the extent of the fires.
Support for new coal mines was down from 45.3% in the June survey to 37.0%, with the fall particularly pronounced among Coalition voters, down from 71.8% to 57.5%. However, those directly exposed to the bushfires who had expressed support for coal mines in June were relatively resistant to this trend.
a r
Nothing exotic. Mistook hard non bouncy 12 kg medicine ball for a bouncy 12 kg medicine ball.
You gotta laugh
a r
Oops. Other way around.
Simon there should be a law to bring back the 80s 🙂
Nobody has to wait for this.
Bellwether – define coming out in front. Dollars and cents I don’t know but all those major surgeries I listed add up to over $50,000. There are a number of other hospitalisations for my wife and kids not listed. The ancillaries are a few thousand each year as well. I’d be surprised if it’s not close to being in front or breakeven.
We highly value having the choice of surgeons and hospitals – what value do you put on that? We put a lot on it because we understand how the systems work.
And we haven’t been a burden on the government system except for me and my kids attendance at Emergency Departments for initial critical care.
I’m trying to decide whether to delete Morisset…
Frankly I would only get cancer treatment in a major public hospital. And I’m not the only one that thinks that. Medicos and specialists i know have done the same for their own treatment. They would never get cancer treatment in a private hospital.
Simon Katichsays:
Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 3:39 pm
“Nobody has to wait for this.”
Wrong. You wait for the colonoscopy and then you wait for the surgery.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-18/growing-waiting-lists-for-colonoscopies-test-could-prove-fatal/8192048
Speaking of 80’s and blondes…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCuMWrfXG4E
Actually a few weeks ago, colleague of my OH was experiencing back pain. Had an MRI. Found cause was tumours, immediately admitted to major cancer hospital for treatment. No waiting.
Did someone say Blondes?
https://youtu.be/O_WLw_0DFQQ
Bucephalus @ #805 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 3:40 pm
I simply can’t afford it but it sounds as though it is working very well for you.
Simon katich
Agreed. Every one I know who has had any type of cancer that needs treatment has not had to wait at all.
Cud Chewer @ #857 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 2:41 pm
Delete Alanis? Never!
Victoria @ #811 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 3:43 pm
Fake news.
You didnt mention colonoscopy – you specifically mentioned cancer surgery once diagnosed. Dont change the argument to defend your BS.
Public patients never wait for life threatening cancer surgery any longer than private patients.
AH! You win.
Rex Douglas
You can believe what you like.
I frankly dont give a rats
In my experience the ” best surgeon in X ” differs markedly from joe public and those in the system.
Bucephalus says:
Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 2:08 pm
Canadians who can afford it travel to the US for Health Care to avoid the waiting lists and get the best care money can buy.
US Citizens who can’t afford US Health Care try and go to Canada to get free health care.
——————————————————–
Amy Zarzeczny, an associate professor in the Johnson-Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy at the University of Regina in Saskatchewan, at least in the quotes, doesn’t make the obvious point that you can’t just turn up and access Medicare. I’m sure she is a fine academic and a tribute to Al Johnson and Tommy Shoyama, architects of Canada’s medicare system, who I worked with, back in the day, if you’ll forgive the name-dropping.
Can Buch explain how U.S. Citizens can go to Canada to take advantage of “everything bulk-billed” Medicare when they are ineligible. You need a provincial health card, you know, and you can imagine how hard they are to obtain and impossible if you are not a Canadian citizen.
On the issue of Canadians going south of the border, they represent a miniscule number of patients, and as he notes, are those who can afford it and are not prepared to wait in the queue.
Wait times for elective surgery are not significantly longer than in comparable systems such as in the UK, Scandinavian countries and even Australia.
I think he owes us more than “some estimates are” when citing cross-border medical movements. If one accepts the $470 million figure, which seems high, and assume it only covers services covered by Medicare, that is about a quarter of one per cent of the annual Medicare budget.
There are no private hospitals in Canada as we know it here. There are a very, very few private clinics which were grandfathered when the single payer system came in in the 1960’s. They are usually prohibited from offering services that are not covered by the public system and can not bill Medicare. The family-founded Shouldice hernia clinic near Toronto that Rand Paul used is unusual.
Vogon Poet @ #822 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 3:52 pm
Yep.
Victoria @ #821 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 3:52 pm
I have first hand experience.
You’re talking crap.
Eat your hearts out gentlemen. I’ve had Olivia Newton-John in my kitchen, and all she wanted to talk about was what I did for a living.
naaaa na naaaa na Nah Nah
(no, you dirtybuggers, not that had had)
Itzadream
And speaking of Olivia Newton John. The centre for cancer which stands in her name is a first class place for cancer treatment.
ItzaDream @ #826 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 3:54 pm
I’m jealous.
There is no reason to trust that your private health insurance plan would be more reliable than a nationally funded public health care system with strong public support. Private health insurance plans can be changed or withdrawn with little warning; you can turn to your insurer in a time of need and find that some of the services are not covered. There is nothing trustworthy about private health insurance companies.
And ultimately, private health insurance companies don’t create the real resources that are needed for health care. They don’t educate and train health care workers. That task is overwhelmingly done by public universities and public hospitals. They don’t do the basic research and development that leads to pharmaceuticals and medical devices that help people. That task is overwhelmingly done by public research institutions. The real action in health care happens in publicly funded institutions that actually create socially useful things that promote good health outcomes.
Private health insurers are really just a massive form of inefficiency – an unnecessary layer of advertising, marketing, profit-taking, and administration. They don’t create health care services and their focus is profit, not public wellbeing. They are much less trustworthy than well-funded and democratically accountable public agencies.
Vogon
Every time we have a need for a Specialist Medico we find from our friends who are medicos who they would go to. It just happened by chance that one of the best colorectal surgeons in WA if not Australia is a good friend from school. I also went to Uni with the guy who does all the Freo Dockers ankles and he was good enough to not operate straight away but treat me conservatively when I did a syndesmotic ankle injury falling off my bike while still clipped in.
I should add I do see the benefit of private health insurance for some. Road bike riders. Mountain bikers. Sportspeople in general. People who work in physically challenging environments. People who need to be agile, fit and healthy for work (like a chippy or plumber) – although I choose income protection to cover this. Otherwise I reckon putting the money into your homeloan or term deposits or solid share portfolio is better value.
Simon Katichsays:
Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 3:51 pm
“You didnt mention colonoscopy – you specifically mentioned cancer surgery once diagnosed. Dont change the argument to defend your BS.”
You can argue semantics but if you are a patient waiting for a colonoscopy and it turns out that you have cancer then you are waiting for your cancer surgery.
How do people feel about smokers clogging up the public system with their smoking related conditions ..?
re hand washing
wombat mentioned 60 sec with soap and water iirc, not as a definitive hand wash per se, but by way of a comparison with a point being made.
Think Triple wash. A pre-surgical scrub is a minimum of three minutes (that’s a long time), washing up to the elbows, and is done in three stages. Soap (bactericidal in hospital) with hands rubbing over each other repeatedly, between fingers, up and down the arms, rinse from elbows down, and do it twice more.
As children, we were hammered with never being allowed to eat without washing our hands. That’s when hand to mouth is unavoidable. It seems to be a thing of the past, such basics, along with coughing and sneezing social mores. Another thing I got hammered with was leaving home without a handkerchief (pre tissues to be sure). When I said, as I did, ‘Mum I don’t need a handkerchief’, the warm smiling reply would come – ‘but the person you are wth might.’. I carry one to this day.
ps Even in horticulture, things (buckets) are triple rinsed for proper cleaning.
I also think there are some treatments that are in the ‘elective’ section that need waiting lists drastically reduced and some treatments covered by the public system that perhaps should be left for private.
And if you find yourself in hospital draining the public system funds because you went out and got drunk then picked a fight using a broken bottle only to get the crap beaten out of you and cut up… then perhaps you can fund that yourself.
But in that is a can of pandoras.
Victoria @ #824 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 3:55 pm
No surprise Victoria. She’s absolutely first class.
Itzadream
She is indeed. Lucky you.
Rex Douglas @ #881 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 3:04 pm
As long as tobacco products are taxed at a rate that roughly covers the cost of this treatment, it’s fine.
Rex Douglas
Where do you draw the line? Fat bastards cost us heaps because they don’t manage their metabolism. Drug Addicts? Alcoholics? Motor cyclists or as my Mother who was an ED Nurse called them – organ donors on wheels? Sports players?
I always thought the name Olivia Neutron Bomb was cute. 🙂
Just returned from shopping and I bought a few extra tinned things which will keep. There didn’t seem to be any shortage except that the cheese counter was virtually empty. Why cheese? I asked myself. In the feed store some dog biscuits weren’t available and probably won’t be for weeks. This must be coincidence!
Lots of handwash bottles of all kinds. Perhaps the panic hasn’t reached here yet. 🙂
a r @ #835 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 4:10 pm
Which was one of the main points to the increases in Tobacco Tax, iirc, that Nicola Roxon brought in as Health Minister. Which the Coalition have continued to this day. 🙂
Rex Douglas @ #830 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 4:04 pm
An often question Rex, but where does that stop? Obesity? Alcoholism? Speeding? Alcohol is a shocker. Any number of things are self-harming. Living for example! As they say, the thing about planet Earth is no-one gets off alive.
a r @ #838 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 4:10 pm
Fair point, but they still consume the time of specialists which delays the system
This is again, very bad public policy with ideology overriding evidence based recommendations.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-government-rejects-pill-testing-more-injecting-rooms-20200227-p544vx.html
Andrew_Earlwood:
[‘It has been often said that adducing evidence as ‘tendency’ evidence in CSA cases is very hard.’]
From a prosecutor’s perspective, “tendency evidence” can result in great utility, but it’s more often than not prejudicial to an accused, bearing in mind that the DPP can call on the vast resources of the state to assist in a prosecution; whereas, the former can’t, often represented by legal aid, where you’ve got to write almost a thesis to support additional expenditure. Yes, there are tests that have to be satisfied before “tendency evidence” can be adduced but overall I think the Crown should present its case based solely on the evidence available to it at trial. For me, “tendency evidence” is somewhat analogous to showing the jury the rap sheet of the accused. That said, Heydon sort of got it right with this:
‘Evidence scholars seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a quarrel about these questions.’- Heydon J. in HML v The Queen [2008] HCA 186 at para [320].
Well said.
Just need to invest in some more water bombers though Dan.
ABS figures for capital expenditure in the December quarter show expenditure collapsed by 2.8% over the quarter. Combined with moribund retail sales and a further contraction in construction in the quarter bode on the down side for GDP figures next week.
Given the full impact of the bushfires and virus will not impact until the March quarter the economy is very sick indeed.
Morrison and Josh are now talking about looking at some “ modest” stimulus that is still being discussed within Treasury. No plans, no direction just ongoing discussion. With March almost upon us any actual “ action” is still a long long way from being implemented.
Sick GDP for December. Sicker GDP for March and yet the government is stalled in discussion with treasury.
Will the government wait for the May budget or actually do something now ?
The economy is almost at the stage of completely getting away from the government and once it does sink it will be very hard to turn around especially if the government relies on some smooth sounding quick fix marketing announcements.
You could argue that the willingness of Australians to see smokers, drinkers, victims of alcohol-induced and methamphetamine violence along with our more unfortunate citizens living on the streets or with mental-health issues, to see them treated in our public system free-of-charge is really one of the major tenets of the much-maligned democratic socialism.
C@t:’I always thought the name Olivia Neutron Bomb was cute. ‘
I do believe that her grandfather, physicist Max Bon, won a noble prize for research into quantum mechanics.
Bucephalus says:
Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 3:43 pm
Simon Katichsays:
Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 3:39 pm
“Nobody has to wait for this.”
Wrong. You wait for the colonoscopy and then you wait for the surgery.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-18/growing-waiting-lists-for-colonoscopies-test-could-prove-fatal/8192048
——————————————————-
Bucephalus could well become IPA’s poster boy for its attack on the public health system.
The wait times are the result of the Coalition continually cutting funds for health and driving people into the private system. They just don’t believe that anything should be in public hands, including our health.
And as for maxing out the ancillaries. Most of those extras should not be considered insurance because they are going to happen anyway. That cover is simply a means to get discounts. The insurers also probably get a kickback from their “approved” suppliers. It’s a racket.
As for being able to choose your surgeon.
When I’m lying on my back in the supermarket after suffering a heart attack, I’m supposed to pull out my phone and go to DocAdvisor to find out who the best cardiac surgeon is. I assume Buc has a databank for judging the competence and the costs of individual medical specialists.
What a crock.
Rex Douglas!
Just need to invest in some more water bombers though Dan.
That’s the LNP governments job, you Twerp!.
Bellwether @ #897 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 3:29 pm
Doesn’t democratic socialism say that those people should receive other basic necessities (such as housing) in addition to public healthcare, and thus suggest that they should not be living on the street?