Essential Research: carbon, coal and coronavirus

A quick look at this week’s Essential Research report, and a deeper one at last week’s ANU survey on the impact of the bushfires.

The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research finds 75% support for a net zero carbon pollution target by 2050, with only 25% opposed; 32% wishing to see coal-fired power plants phased out as soon as possible and another 47% wanting an end to subsidies and government support, compared with 21% wanting government support for both existing and new plants; and 80% support for the government preventing people entering the country from China due to coronavirus, with only 6% opposed. There are further questions and breakdowns in the report, but not a lot to get excited about on the whole – I can only beseech the pollster to bite the bullet and get back in the voting intention game.

To add more meat to this post, I will instead probe deeper into the report on the political impact of the bushfires published last week by the Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods. This was based on a regular panel survey conducted by the centre on a roughly quarterly basis, largely dealing with questions such as satisfaction with governments, public institutions and life in general. Since most of the respondents had also completed previous surveys, the report is able to explore changes in voting intention and attitudes over time. On this occasion, the survey was supplemented by questions on respondents’ exposure to the bushfires.

The study found a slump in electoral support for the Coalition, from 42.6% in the October survey to 37.2%, with Labor up from 33.7% to 35.8%, the Greens up from 14.4% to 14.7% (which is obviously too high at both ends) and others up from 9.3% to 11.2% (after excluding non-respondents, of which there were 5.1% in October and 6.6% in January). However, it did not find evidence that the fall in Coalition support was particularly pronounced among those who had been exposed to the bushfires.

Some of the factors that did associate with defection from the Coalition suggest an intensification of trends evident at the election, with university-educated voters more likely to have abandoned the Coalition and voters aged 75 and over less likely to have done so. However, the Coalition had a particular drop in support outside capital cities, though not in a way that suggested exposure to the fires was the reason. Out of the sample of 618 Coalition defectors, 43.9% supported Labor, 14.3% the Greens and 24.7% others, with the remainder uncommitted.

Consistent with the findings of the Ipsos Issues Monitor survey in January, the number of respondents rating environmental issues as the first or second most important facing the country rose from 41.5% in the October survey to 49.7%. For whatever reason, there was a significant effect here for indirect exposure to the bushfire (having friends or family whose properties were damaged or threatened, having travel plans affected, or exposure to smoke or anxiety), but not for direct exposure. However, as the report notes, what the survey registered as concern for environmental issues extended to blaming “the greenies” for the extent of the fires.

Support for new coal mines was down from 45.3% in the June survey to 37.0%, with the fall particularly pronounced among Coalition voters, down from 71.8% to 57.5%. However, those directly exposed to the bushfires who had expressed support for coal mines in June were relatively resistant to this trend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Essential Research: carbon, coal and coronavirus”

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  1. And once I was on my feet I could get cappuccinos from the café and the newspaper and read them in my private room with ensuite. Not bad.

  2. First clear day in a while to see SE Aus at Worldview, after at least some rain.

    Currowan, Shoalhaven, Orroral, Gippsland and numerous other fires clearly visible as scars across a massive fraction of the SE corner
    Scars largely following the predominant NW and SW winds of the worst days

    https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=143.41058551666694,-38.852488487917476,153.01475675592107,-34.273934943682356&t=2020-02-27-T06%3A38%3A42Z&z=2&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721

  3. Once again Morrison gets ahead of himself, saying he’s ‘fixed’ the coronavirus problem.

    Quote ” You can go to the football, you can go to the cricket, do anything you like” because we have fixed the problem.

    That seems to me to be a stupid remark.

  4. Quote ” You can go to the football, you can go to the cricket, do anything you like” because we have fixed the problem.
    _____
    That sounds like it comes from a man feeling quite insecure.

  5. BK @ #904 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 7:08 pm

    Quote ” You can go to the football, you can go to the cricket, do anything you like” because we have fixed the problem.
    _____
    That sounds like it comes from a man feeling quite insecure.

    It also sounds like a man who has medical advice that the crisis has passed.

    It’s a political statement based on inside info.

    Good luck Scotty if it’s inaccurate.

  9. The new Morrison ‘fix’ for dealing with coronavirus might have some of his more elderly and feeble supporters worried. According to today’s DT that I read in a cafe, people in nursing homes will be locked in and virtually abandoned. Or perhaps their treatment will depend on which electorate they live in.

  10. Normally a cancer operation will be done quite a bit more quickly in private than in public, but it is rare for the public wait to be long enough to affect prognosis.
    Breast reconstruction is not considered a cosmetic operation, and more than having your nose reconstructed after it has been removed for cancer.
    Part of the function of a body part is to look like that body part.

  12. You can go to the football, you can go to the cricket, do anything you like

    FMD I get sick of the sport context, as if we’re all obsessed.

    Bet the same won’t apply to any demonstrations.

  14. The people Her Indoors and myself dealt with in her Workplace case over 22 months with NSW Health (documented here and elsewhere at the time), are now mostly transferred over to the Northern Beaches Hospital in similar roles.

    In particular, senior echelons of the Northern Sydney Local Health District (NSLHD) HR department – who spent half a million dollars of public money, in a vain attempt to sack one employee (because her boss became jealous of her popularity with other staff) – have segued across to the new privatised hospital, to further spread their workplace poison.

    It was all so very predictable.

  15. There is currently no threat in public in Australia from the Corona Virus so the PM is correct. There is absolutely no need to be wearing useless theater masks in public.

    Wash your hands.

  16. sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 5:50 pm
    The impact of coronavirus in the US will be inexplicably tied to braggadocio Dotard FIGJAM. Some random thoughts..

    – Dotard’s health care for the wealthy, the less well off can go without
    – variations on Medicare for All are the perfect segue to bash Dotard’s indolence on coronavirus
    – don’t you worry about that – it’s just like the flu. A Dotard rally is attended by some infected people, and a breakout of MAGA fans succumb to Covid-19
    – the Stockmarket rise ‘due to Dotard – just ask me’ reverses, and exposes more unregulated rorts, like borrowing money to pay dividends to investors, Ponzi style
    – then there is supply chain (85% of toys are made in China) breakdown, affecting the Consumer Confidence which drives the US economy
    _______________________________________
    Bob Sprocket’s predictions are always a mildly amusing comic relief, generally the opposite of Bob’s predictions come true. I’m calling Bob’s latest delphic prediction as meaning nothing to fear from coronavirus in the US or Australia.

    Your a Pollbludger little treasure Bob!

  17. Bushfire Bill says:
    Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 7:35 pm
    The people Her Indoors and myself dealt with in her Workplace case over 22 months with NSW Health (documented here and elsewhere at the time), are now mostly transferred over to the Northern Beaches Hospital in similar roles.

    In particular, senior echelons of the Northern Sydney Local Health District (NSLHD) HR department – who spent half a million dollars of public money, in a vain attempt to sack one employee (because her boss became jealous of her popularity with other staff) – have segued across to the new privatised hospital, to further spread their workplace poison.

    It was all so very predictable.
    ______________________________
    WARNING: Bushfire Bob NSW Health vendetta episode No 3455

  21. Ok, here it comes, I am terrified we are about to see a lot more boring Greg Hunt press conferences and media appearances for the next 4 weeks or so..

  26. Retail is looking sicker and sicker. The canary in the coal mine…

    “The last few months have been the worst on record for some Australian retailers, like homewares chain Ishka, which went into administration last week.

    “This has been by far the worst Christmas that we have ever been through,” Mr Darvall told 7.30.

    “I’ve traded through three recessions, the Asian financial crisis, the global financial crisis. You expect ups and downs as a retailer, that’s what we sign up for.

    “But what we’ve seen over the last few months was just off the scale.

    “I’ve never experienced anything like it.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-27/retail-slump-off-the-scale-as-stunted-wage-growth-and-bushfires/12006984

  27. Well lets be truthful Bob and Bill, you Bob seem to love juvenile names “dotard” “scummo” “L’arse” etc etc. Its just not funny.

    And you Bill I get that somewhere in the deep dark past you had a dispute with NSW Health – it is time to move on. Bad things happen to good people but mostly people move on – its unhealthy to dwell on the past.

    Bob and your contribution really isn’t that interesting. To be fair to Bill he does have a distinctive point of view , some colour so to speak.

    I just don’t see the Labor Good, Liberal Bad dichotomy that posters such as you have on this blog as that interesting. I’ve never been a Liberal supporter, life sadly has many many shades of grey that neither of you seem to be able to comprehend.

  29. For serious disease, the choice one has in Australia is to have payments sourced in the following ways:
    – at least 95% public , up to 5% out of pocket
    – about 60% public, about 30% privately insured, about 10% out of pocket

    Both are public systems.

  34. And you Bill I get that somewhere in the deep dark past you had a dispute with NSW Health – it is time to move on. Bad things happen to good people but mostly people move on – its unhealthy to dwell on the past.

    In case you had not noticed, Lars, a report on Northern Beaches privatized hospital came out today, scathing in its findings.

    The same people who fucked up NSLHD (including Mona Vale and Manly hospitals, now closed and folded into the new privatized system) in the areas of staffing, training, hiring and firing, have in significant measure moved to the new hospital in almost exactly equivalent and equally fucked up positions.

    The state system’s gain in losing these people is offset by the misery currently being inflicted by them on the sick and unwell of the Northern Beaches.

    This is not a maudlin rehash of the past. It is a description of the present misery inflicted on the people of Sydney’s Northern Beaches.

  36. With advertisers tightening their belts, and viewers voting with their trackballs and touchscreens, old media is feeling the squeeze.. maybe Frydo should be running the economy rather than shitcanning Hinduism?

    “Stocks taking a thumping over the week have included all four of the big banks, as well as two smaller troubled finance groups, AMP and IOOF.

    The week has also taken a toll on Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. Since last Thursday it has shed 15% of its value, or $3.40, to close on Thursday at $19.06.

    It has no direct exposure to the Chinese economy but over the past fortnight competitors Seven West Media and Nine Entertainment have unveiled half-year results that paint a grim picture of the Australian media sector.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/27/airlines-carmakers-and-beer-companies-warn-of-tough-times-as-coronavirus-spreads

  38. Confessions @ #937 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 8:43 pm

    Frydenberg sounds like a drunk teenager after a footy game in that QT grab.

    He’s stressed because he knows he will take the fall when the recession is declared.

    My guess is the December quarter GDP figures are going to be line ball or negative. But, the current quarter figures will definitely be negative and the next quarter is not looking rosy either.

  41. We have been shopping for a new sofa over the last few days.

    We’ve been to five Mid North Coast furniture stores: two in Forster, three in the larger town of Taree.

    In each of the five stores we were the only customer for the entirety of our visit.

    We finally picked a really comfy, stylish sofa. But in the color we wanted it, it had to be custom made.

    The salesman told us that the lead time used to be 14 weeks, from China. Unfortunately, as all the Chinese furniture factories are closed, this lead time is now 26 weeks, with no guarantee even of that. He told us they can’t get an answer from their suppliers, but the reality was that he expected 36 to 52 weeks lead time.

    At that, we shook hands, said “Sorry mate,” and left.

  42. Cofessions “Another long form interview with Rick Wilson on the campaign, his years as a Republican and more tough love for the Dems.”

    Very prescient bloke, Rick Wilson is.
    Looks like the Dems will pick Bernie, and they’ll lose because of every thing he talks about.

  43. Just a thought, many of the Bernie Bros seem to be Millenials, so they would have not lived during the Cold War, when for Americans Communism/Socialism was seen very much an existential threat to their way of life.

  44. William,

    Christopher Joye on coronavirus:

    What is interesting is the diversity of experiences. In Japan there have been 170 cases, but only one fatality, with no signs yet of an acceleration. Singapore has had 91 cases and no deaths, with recent stability in infections. Hong Kong has had 85 cases and two deaths with no likewise evidence of contagion. Fascinatingly, Taiwan, notwithstanding its close proximity and ties to China, has also avoided any real problems with total infections of 31 persons and one death.

    In contrast, we have seen explosive growth in infections in South Korea (1,146), Italy (322) and, presumably, Iran (95?), which might be driven by idiosyncratic factors that are basically bad luck. (The Iranian data is clearly bogus.)

    South Korea and Italy are crucial because unlike the Chinese experience, we can in theory trust their data evolution alongside that which is published by other relatively open states like Singapore, Japan and Hong Kong.

    About half the 1,146 cases in South Korea have been attributed to a secretive religious cult, which conducts huddled private prayers that increase the probability of transmission—much like the prayer practices in Iran where individuals also greet each other with kisses (they are now switching to tapping feet)—and resists public identification of its members.

    In Italy it is notably also common for folks to greet one another with kisses on the cheeks that could boost infection rates.

    Cultural stuff. My East Asian friends, who are used to living at close quarters with each other, do not touch each other. I love the East Asian bow, and am now implementing it at work. I also note that at every cafe and restaurant in East Asia, there is a hand-washing facility.

    As Itza Dream said, an earlier generation, where antibiotics were a novelty, were rigorously told to wash their hands before they ate.

    I also saw a corporate skit, which showed a German businessperson with a bad ‘flu, with the caption ” I was in France last week”. This refers to the French custom of kissing when meeting, which I am deeply embedded in. Mind you, the German handshake also has a lot to answer for.

    So, for me, the bow to greet people, the hand washing or other antiseptic hand rub, is something I will push as the new necessary cultural response to a new problem

  45. Douglas and Milko says:
    Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 9:09 pm
    I love the East Asian bow, and am now implementing it at work.
    ______________
    I’ve known a couple of Heads of School who were keen on implementing the kowtow. I think only Deans should be afforded this honorific.

  46. Yessirrebob @ #942 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 8:03 pm

    Cofessions “Another long form interview with Rick Wilson on the campaign, his years as a Republican and more tough love for the Dems.”

    Very prescient bloke, Rick Wilson is.
    Looks like the Dems will pick Bernie, and they’ll lose because of every thing he talks about.

    I suspect Wilson has an objective similar to the Greens. He wants Trump removed and will put up with a Democrat President. But he still wants the Republicans to be able to block changes. I don’t know why people give his opinion so much credence – he’s fully in the game from a policy point of view in favour of business and other Republican favourites.

    Not an objective voice at all.

  47. Torchbearer

    As a former senior manager in both the public and private systems- I wouldn’t go near the private health system with a barge pole. Private Healthcare may have been superior once, but is now ruthlessly run to make a profit- there is no budget or time for staff training, professional development, quality systems and audits … experienced staff are shed and replaced by 457s and juniors on minimum wages. With religious discrimination bills coming, people will be employed for their superstitious belief, not their skills or experience.
    The public system is not perfect, but there is some commitment to excellence, not just the provision of the cheapest care. There is a transparent system of accountability. In a major public hospital all the equipment and facilities are there in one place.

    Thanks for this reassurance. I am thinking of ditching the very expensive private health insurance we almost never use, or at least putting a large excess on it (10K).

    Also, the more of us who rely on Australia’s excellent universal health service, the more money will be spent on said service?

    As an aside, several of my Aunts and Uncles are medicos, and this has always been their advice, to the extent that when they were admitted for emergency procedures, and because of their seniority, they were offered beds in private wards at long-established Sydney hospitals, the answer was “Do not dare to put me there! The food may be good, but the medical care will be non-existent, and I will die without anyone noticing.”

  48. Andrew_Earlwood:

    [‘I think your fears are overstated.’]

    I guess that depends on which side of the fence one sits, the jurisprudential rationale of which is moot, complex. That’s probably why we have ‘evidence scholars’ – in the terms of Heydon – to sort it all out, my view being is to rely solely on the evidence apropos of the crime being tried. Moreover, I view “tendency evidence” in the same way as extending incarceration after the termination of a sentence, on the basis that the prisoner might commit further crimes of a similar nature, equalivent to Nostradamus’ prognostications, predicated on the reports of psychiatrists, most of whom in my experience are nuts.

  49. AJM, from what wilson was saying, if Bernie gets the Nomination, then they’ll definitely lose.
    To paraphrase “for the Democrats, Communism is the turd in the punch bowl”, no doubt whom he was referring to with that quote

  50. ajm @ #946 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 6:18 pm

    Yessirrebob @ #942 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 8:03 pm

    Cofessions “Another long form interview with Rick Wilson on the campaign, his years as a Republican and more tough love for the Dems.”

    Very prescient bloke, Rick Wilson is.
    Looks like the Dems will pick Bernie, and they’ll lose because of every thing he talks about.

    I suspect Wilson has an objective similar to the Greens. He wants Trump removed and will put up with a Democrat President. But he still wants the Republicans to be able to block changes. I don’t know why people give his opinion so much credence – he’s fully in the game from a policy point of view in favour of business and other Republican favourites.

    Not an objective voice at all.

    I’ve listened to many of his interviews and have read his first book. He believes the Republican party is dead, buried and cremated and that Trump needs to be removed from office. I don’t know why you think he’d want the Greens in office given he fully outs himself as a conservative, and that the Greens aren’t really a thing in the US.

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