The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research finds 75% support for a net zero carbon pollution target by 2050, with only 25% opposed; 32% wishing to see coal-fired power plants phased out as soon as possible and another 47% wanting an end to subsidies and government support, compared with 21% wanting government support for both existing and new plants; and 80% support for the government preventing people entering the country from China due to coronavirus, with only 6% opposed. There are further questions and breakdowns in the report, but not a lot to get excited about on the whole – I can only beseech the pollster to bite the bullet and get back in the voting intention game.
To add more meat to this post, I will instead probe deeper into the report on the political impact of the bushfires published last week by the Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods. This was based on a regular panel survey conducted by the centre on a roughly quarterly basis, largely dealing with questions such as satisfaction with governments, public institutions and life in general. Since most of the respondents had also completed previous surveys, the report is able to explore changes in voting intention and attitudes over time. On this occasion, the survey was supplemented by questions on respondents’ exposure to the bushfires.
The study found a slump in electoral support for the Coalition, from 42.6% in the October survey to 37.2%, with Labor up from 33.7% to 35.8%, the Greens up from 14.4% to 14.7% (which is obviously too high at both ends) and others up from 9.3% to 11.2% (after excluding non-respondents, of which there were 5.1% in October and 6.6% in January). However, it did not find evidence that the fall in Coalition support was particularly pronounced among those who had been exposed to the bushfires.
Some of the factors that did associate with defection from the Coalition suggest an intensification of trends evident at the election, with university-educated voters more likely to have abandoned the Coalition and voters aged 75 and over less likely to have done so. However, the Coalition had a particular drop in support outside capital cities, though not in a way that suggested exposure to the fires was the reason. Out of the sample of 618 Coalition defectors, 43.9% supported Labor, 14.3% the Greens and 24.7% others, with the remainder uncommitted.
Consistent with the findings of the Ipsos Issues Monitor survey in January, the number of respondents rating environmental issues as the first or second most important facing the country rose from 41.5% in the October survey to 49.7%. For whatever reason, there was a significant effect here for indirect exposure to the bushfire (having friends or family whose properties were damaged or threatened, having travel plans affected, or exposure to smoke or anxiety), but not for direct exposure. However, as the report notes, what the survey registered as concern for environmental issues extended to blaming “the greenies” for the extent of the fires.
Support for new coal mines was down from 45.3% in the June survey to 37.0%, with the fall particularly pronounced among Coalition voters, down from 71.8% to 57.5%. However, those directly exposed to the bushfires who had expressed support for coal mines in June were relatively resistant to this trend.
Peg, some of the critercism of the card was because the income support was too low, which has nothing to do with the card.
One of the objectives of introducing the card was to reduce social disfunction. I don’t think this review covered it.
It would be interesting to see the stats from hospital admissions, womens’ refuges, police and schools to see if these have improved.
Confessions @ #46 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 9:45 am
Which of course is why the Russians are supporting Sanders. Sanders will probably help ensure a Trump victory – but even if he doesn’t, Sanders is soft on Russia. So the Russian’s can’t really lose by supporting him.
‘fess,
Watch the Bernie Bros come out of the woodwork to attack Vox (one of the most left-leaning media websites around). 😆
Keir Stammer got thrown a full toss on leg stump at this leadership debate in the UK. Duly hit it out of the park.
C@t:
Bernie’s campaign maintains that he will draw out the youth to compensate for the loss of others. In that hour long interview Rick Wilson said it was a high risk strategy because historically young people don’t vote, pointing to the youth vote high water mark being the 1988 presidential elections. I don’t think that’s quite accurate as I’ve seen data which shows 2008 had the highest youth vote.
But in any case, his point was that young people don’t vote in the same proportions as old people do, so it’s very risky relying on young people to turn out and save you, esp when you are turning off voters who would otherwise vote for your party with a more moderate candidate.
Donations to RFS and NSW Greens bill….
https://www.smh.com.au/national/new-bill-will-seek-to-change-how-rfs-can-spend-51-million-raised-by-celeste-barber-20200225-p544af.html
“A bill to amend the Rural Fires Act will be introduced to NSW Parliament by the Greens on Wednesday, seeking to change the way donations to the RFS and Brigades Donations Fund made between November 1 and February 1 can be used.
:::
Philanthropy expert and industry fellow at Swinburne University of Technology Krystian Seibert said legislation to vary the application of trusts law is more likely to succeed than the RFS’s Supreme Court approach.
“The Supreme Court can agree to what’s called a ‘cy prés scheme’ in limited circumstances. That allows funds held in a charitable trust like the RFS donations fund to be used for different purposes,” Mr Seibert said.
He said it’s more likely that the Supreme Court will reject the bid because the money is able to be spent in the way the trust specifies.
Mr Seibert said passing legislation could be the only option left if the court rejects RFS’s bid.”
The Guardian
The Greens senator Janet Rice is up in the Senate, chasing the Phil Gaetjens report into the sports rort affair.
I’ve seen predictions that coronavirus could tip Australia into recession. Could it be expected to impact property prices here?
Confessions @ #55 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 10:00 am
Sanders would say that wouldn’t he? Wilson’s analysis is historically justified.
Sanders and Co going with the “This time it will be different”, mantra is the triumph of wishful thinking over reality.
Pegasus @ #39 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 7:02 am
The law says you can’t do something, so the Greens now want to change the law.
Wasn’t this the situation with the Malaysian Solution?
Confessions @ #55 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 10:00 am
Correct, and as we know from analysis in this country the ‘Yoof’ aren’t an amorphous ‘Right On’ mass with the hots for AOC and Democratic Socialism. There’s the completely disengaged, who are virtually anarchic and who survive in their own world and want nothing to do with politics no matter how hard you try and engage them. For example, a lot of people in the Gaming community don’t need society as they have created their own alternative. There are the socially conservative young people, there are the aggressive wealth accumulating libertarian types who believe in survival of the fittest, and there are the Exercise Beasts and the Tradies and the Gun Nuts. There are probably more but you get my drift. Most of them wouldn’t vote for Bernie Sanders, if they decide to vote at all, in a pink fit!
I suspect one motive for Westminster’s desire to leave Europe was to remove the oversight of the European Court of Human Rights.
The US/UK judicial stitch up of Julian Assange, only just beginning in the Woolwich Crown Court (inappropriately a counter-terrorism court), will be drawn out until after the 1st January 2021 when the European Court loses jurisdiction.
The USofA and the UK are both sliding towards authoritarianism.
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2020/02/your-man-in-the-public-gallery-assange-hearing-day-1/
Bonza @ #58 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 10:07 am
I don’t think it will bring them down because most people believe that, as Interest Rates are historically low and the RBA is considering QE, that that will boost house prices even more so that, as Shane Wright put it, young people will have to mortgage their souls just to be able to afford a ‘Renovator’s Delight’. There may be some downward effect due to the Chinese not buying so much but even that is questionable because most people believe that eventually an antiviral for COVID-19 will be developed and things will get back to normal.
Greensborough Growler @ #54 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 9:59 am
I hope he wins.
Can somebody get around the paywall and give us the text on this?
I don’t hold grudges, to me a grudge is nothing more than a place to Pork your Core!
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/leader/east/lack-of-detail-on-federal-governments-station-parking-promise-for-whitehorse-maroondah/news-story/9d55d8fea06003a5efa2221f7ac6a30a
C@t:
Plus it depends on where they live. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Republican legislatures in those key swing states haven’t made the rules so that access to polling stations is severely restricted, meaning that people who work (which is more likely to be young people than oldies), or people still at uni find it all but impossible to get to a voting booth on election day. And that’s without getting into all the other voter suppression tactics Republicans have pulled over the years.
Confessions @ #66 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 10:21 am
And if they’re African American or Latino, who Sanders is also relying heavily on.
I have read that Republican State legislatures are working on Voter Suppression measures for November 2020.
C@tmomma
Got it, abandon all hope 🙂
Alpha Zero @ #65 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 10:21 am
Lack of detail on Federal Government’s station parking promise for Whitehorse, Maroondah
Andrew Rogers, Whitehorse Leader
February 25, 2020 12:30pm
Subscriber only
A year after millions of dollars were promised for multi-level carparks in the eastern suburbs, details on when and where they will be built remain scarce.
Deakin federal Liberal MP Michael Sukkar announced last February stations in Whitehorse and Maroondah would get more parking — $15 million was allocated for a multi-level carpark at Mitcham railway station
He then promised further funding for parking upgrades at Heatherdale and Heathmont stations during last May’s election campaign.
The carparks — to cost a total $75 million — are expected to add up to 500 new spaces at Mitcham, Ringwood and Croydon, with a further 300 at Heathmont and 447 expected at Heatherdale.
But frustrated commuters are complaining they’ve been left in the dark on the progress of the plans at Mitcham, while work at Ringwood and Croydon is not expected to start for several months.
MORE IN leader
Manningham Civic Centre, MC Square, and forecourt, Doncaster Road, Doncaster.
Councillors to pocket thousands if pay rise approved
Councillors to pocket thousands if pay rise approved
Footage showing a student being beaten during a “planned” attack has emerged. Picture: Supplied
Horrific school camp bashing video emerges
Horrific school camp bashing video emerges
In a post on the Whitehorse Leader’s Facebook page, Genevieve Sommers said she had received no further information from Mr Sukkar since finding a leaflet in her letterbox advertising his promise about 12 months ago.
“We haven’t heard a thing about it since,” Ms Sommers wrote. “Where the bloody hell are the parking spaces, Mr Sukkar?”
MORE: SUSPECTED THIEF ASSAULTED
MITCHAM TEEN INJURED
CHADSTONE’S NEW LANDMARK
Fellow commuter Ben Brown commented: “We don’t remember getting anything more recently from Mr Sukkar telling us how well it’s all going.”
Mr Sukkar said: “We are currently scoping two options for a multi-level carpark at Mitcham station and once confirmed we will have further information on the construction time frame of this important project,” he said.
andrew.rogers@news.com.au
Bonza @ #68 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 10:26 am
No, just vote Labor. They actually care about you and have the policies to do something concrete about it.
Catprog @ #1169 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 6:30 am
You mean the Florida recount that would have shown Gore winning Florida by ~1000 votes, had the courts not intervened and literally handed the state, the election, and the presidency to Bush II in a 5/4 decision split along partisan political lines?
That result is rightly criticized. And harshly.
Anything they want to do, they say was voted for in the election. And this coal-lover wasn’t even a Minister then. This is getting very tiring.
Thanks be to The Silver Bodgie 🙂
I am hugely skeptical of the car park getting built at Heatherdale.
However they are answering the wrong question. They should be encouraging more people to ride a bike to the train station…
C@tmomma @ #64 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 10:20 am
“Sir Keir Starmer has vowed to keep the “radical socialist tradition” at heart of Labour in a pitch to the party’s left wing as members prepare to vote for the next leader.”
Now, are you quite sure you want him to win?
lizzie @ #72 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 10:34 am
They’ll hang onto that “last election mandate” argument as long as they can.
Anything to avoid admitting that the public’s opinion has changed dramatically since the last election … as William’s analysis at the top of this thread demonstrates.
“Which of course is why the Russians are supporting Sanders. Sanders will probably help ensure a Trump victory – but even if he doesn’t, Sanders is soft on Russia. So the Russian’s can’t really lose by supporting him.”
I think the russian interference is simply about weakening the US and US political culture- and polarising the electorate so that 50% of the population actively hates whichever president they have is part of this. A house divided against itself, etc……. (or, Fear leads to anger, anger to hate, hate to suffering, suffering to the dark side”). Putin is playing a solo game of chess with them.
From the Guardian live feed … may be of interest to PollBludgers …
No wonder Australians are so easy to con! 🙁
lizzie @ #1 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 6:32 am
The first step towards wage rises is a skills shortage. 🙂
sustainable future @ #76 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 10:46 am
Putin is playing chess. The Democrats are playing checkers. Trump is playing tiddlywinks.
Seems one can more freely summarise UK legal proceedings there than here.
The strident assertions made about the magistrate’s bias lost some steam when her probing of the prosecutor were summarised.
Anyway, Assange’s extradition case is going on appeal to the Supreme Court so early skirmishes will lose their significance.
“No, just vote Labor. They actually care about you and have the policies to do something concrete about it.”
I do, except I currently live in the electorate of Melbourne – there wasn’t even a Labor name on the ballot at the last federal election 🙁
Trump publicly and blatantly engaging in jury tampering in the Stone case:
P1
Re fact-checking and lack of…..no surprises there.
You only have to look here how supposedly political junkies go off half-cocked about something before seeking around for reports/data/info from authoritative primary sources, or secondary sources even.
Pegasus @ #66 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 7:56 am
Self parody at it’s best. 🙂
His name was on theMelbourne ballot paper.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-03/federal-election-labor-candidate-luke-creasey-withdraws/11076194
“No, just vote Labor. They actually care about you and have the policies to do something concrete about it.”
***
Darth Labor:
Greens:
Every single day on Pollbludger:
Test for edit
So disengaged voters are supposedly meant to fact check, whilst it’s ok that supposedly engaged, political journalists let politicians assertions go through to the keeper.
Bin TB
As illustrated by Bonza’s post re a simple fact.
It’s an ill wind that blows nobody any good….
“As China battles one of the most serious virus epidemics of the century, the impacts on the country’s energy demand and emissions are only beginning to be felt.
Electricity demand and industrial output remain far below their usual levels across a range of indicators, many of which are at their lowest two-week average in several years. These include:
Coal use at power stations reporting daily data at a four-year low.
Oil refinery operating rates in Shandong province at the lowest level since 2015.
Output of key steel product lines at the lowest level for five years.
Levels of NO2 air pollution over China down 36% on the same period last year.
Domestic flights are down up to 70% compared to last month.
All told, the measures to contain coronavirus have resulted in reductions of 15% to 40% in output across key industrial sectors. This is likely to have wiped out a quarter or more of the country’s CO2 emissions over the past two weeks, the period when activity would normally have resumed after the Chinese new-year holiday. (See methodology below.)
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-has-temporarily-reduced-chinas-co2-emissions-by-a-quarter
Firefox, so just what is a Greens policy to tackle the increasing housing unaffordability crises ?
You do realise that pricing an entire generation out affordable housing is unsustainable and will lead to a significant economic downturn, don’t you ?
It’s a worthy sentiment, but Coronavirus is much, much more infectious than HIV.
Discrimination during the HIV scare was based on the mistaken belief that HIV was easily transmissible. We know now that it was mostly transmitted by close contact with the blood (and some other bodily fluids) of infected people.
By contrast, Coronavirus IS easily transmissible. It shares with HIV a symptomless, but infectious period that aids in its transmission. Combined, these two traits make Coronavirus a big threat to public health.
It’s ongoing effects are, by definition, completely unknown. It literally hasn’t been around long enough for anyone to know it’s long-term ramifications, either on individuals or on populations.
To me it’s quite sensible to not take any chances of mixing with potential COVID-19 sufferers (which would have to include symptomless potential sufferers) until more is known about it (its side-effects, true incubation period, mortality rate being three), or a vaccine is produced.
At the extremes,
● You are not going to be infected if you live like a hermit.
● You are almost certain to be infected if you walk about various decks of the Diamond Princess without taking bio-hazard precautions.
Somewhere in the middle is the “appropriate” response.
Accusing the more cautious among us of “racism” is easy point-scoring. The truth is: countries that actively discriminate against Chinese travellers are doing best in combating the disease. For better or worse, whether it’s “racist” or not, regarding anyone who’s been in China in the past month as potentially infectious has slowed the progress of the disease.
However there are complications. For good reasons and bad, governments are reluctant to jeopardize commerce by stopping trade and travel with China. They, at least until stock markets all over the world took matters into their own hands, seemed to be keen to play the problem down, whether that be with the noble aim of preventing panic, or the base aim of keeping their corporate donors happy and their national accounts in sync with over-optimistic predictions.
Health authorities are giving conflicting messages about the virus and it’s disease, sometimes mixing social messages in with medical ones. And then there’s outright denial. We saw the results of that in Hubei Province.
Despite (or because of?) the best, worst and plain ambivalent intentions of those “in charge”, and those medical authorities whose well-paid jobs depend on keeping their political masters sweet, the result is a confused public.
All this is in a scenario where, again for better or worse, it is easy to filter out 99.5% of potentially infectious carriers just by looking at them. What it’s going to be like if ethnicity is no longer a major part of that filter, we are about to see, I’m afraid. But can anyone deny that, if this disease had started in the West, that Asia wouldn’t be applying the same discrimination towards people of European appearance?
All things considered, until this virus becomes a true pandemic with no respect for ethnicity, calls for social solutions to medical problems in this chaotic atmosphere are understandably premature.
“Firefox, so just what is a Greens policy to tackle the increasing housing unaffordability crises ?
You do realise that pricing an entire generation out affordable housing is unsustainable and will lead to a significant economic downturn, don’t you ?”
***
https://greens.org.au/policies/housing
Greens Janet Rice on twitter
“With Morrison still refusing to release the Gaetjens report, The Greens, with the help of Labor & crossbench, are now into hour two of disrupting government business for the day. Coalition, take note: we will not stand for flagrant corruption & porkbarrelling #auspol #sportsrorts”
Pegasus @ #71 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 8:01 am
As the candidate had been disendorsed by Labor, he was no longer their candidate, so despite what the ballot said, there was no endorsed Labor candidate to vote for.
a r @ #78 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 7:47 am
Not under this mob. A skills shortage is the first step to flooding the country with even cheaper imported labour.
FF, OK, so you post a link to the Greens web site, that mostly seems to contain motherhood statements, and yet you seemingly sneer at the fact that the ALP is the only party that does have well known and concrete policies to tackle affordable housing, such as getting rid of negative gearing, and winding back CGT concessions.
Surely, when a party does have good policy on addressing what is a fundamental right, it does you no good to sneer at them ?
Photos of Mr. Weinstein crouching over a walker are interesting.
The crouch is because the handles are deliberately set low to give the debilitated look.
I have no idea whether or not Mr. Weinstein is physically unable to be more upright with the walker.
‘a r says:
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 10:47 am
lizzie @ #1 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 6:32 am
Tanya Plibersek
@tanya_plibersek
·
12m
BREAKING: New data shows around 140,000 apprentices + trainees lost under the Libs. As a result, Australia now has shortages of bricklayers, plumbers, hairdressers, bakers, mechanics + other critical trades. Scott Morrison has created a tradie crisis.
The first step towards wage rises is a skills shortage. ‘
False.
They are imported from o/s as temps. Paid less. Conditions worse. Undercut Aussie workers.
DP
Snap!