The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research finds 75% support for a net zero carbon pollution target by 2050, with only 25% opposed; 32% wishing to see coal-fired power plants phased out as soon as possible and another 47% wanting an end to subsidies and government support, compared with 21% wanting government support for both existing and new plants; and 80% support for the government preventing people entering the country from China due to coronavirus, with only 6% opposed. There are further questions and breakdowns in the report, but not a lot to get excited about on the whole – I can only beseech the pollster to bite the bullet and get back in the voting intention game.
To add more meat to this post, I will instead probe deeper into the report on the political impact of the bushfires published last week by the Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods. This was based on a regular panel survey conducted by the centre on a roughly quarterly basis, largely dealing with questions such as satisfaction with governments, public institutions and life in general. Since most of the respondents had also completed previous surveys, the report is able to explore changes in voting intention and attitudes over time. On this occasion, the survey was supplemented by questions on respondents’ exposure to the bushfires.
The study found a slump in electoral support for the Coalition, from 42.6% in the October survey to 37.2%, with Labor up from 33.7% to 35.8%, the Greens up from 14.4% to 14.7% (which is obviously too high at both ends) and others up from 9.3% to 11.2% (after excluding non-respondents, of which there were 5.1% in October and 6.6% in January). However, it did not find evidence that the fall in Coalition support was particularly pronounced among those who had been exposed to the bushfires.
Some of the factors that did associate with defection from the Coalition suggest an intensification of trends evident at the election, with university-educated voters more likely to have abandoned the Coalition and voters aged 75 and over less likely to have done so. However, the Coalition had a particular drop in support outside capital cities, though not in a way that suggested exposure to the fires was the reason. Out of the sample of 618 Coalition defectors, 43.9% supported Labor, 14.3% the Greens and 24.7% others, with the remainder uncommitted.
Consistent with the findings of the Ipsos Issues Monitor survey in January, the number of respondents rating environmental issues as the first or second most important facing the country rose from 41.5% in the October survey to 49.7%. For whatever reason, there was a significant effect here for indirect exposure to the bushfire (having friends or family whose properties were damaged or threatened, having travel plans affected, or exposure to smoke or anxiety), but not for direct exposure. However, as the report notes, what the survey registered as concern for environmental issues extended to blaming “the greenies” for the extent of the fires.
Support for new coal mines was down from 45.3% in the June survey to 37.0%, with the fall particularly pronounced among Coalition voters, down from 71.8% to 57.5%. However, those directly exposed to the bushfires who had expressed support for coal mines in June were relatively resistant to this trend.
Aus Greens, the local indigenous communities and many ordinary Australians have been raising both Burrup and Browse since at least 2010. Though as is apparently to be expected, it is far easier for partisans to jump on the LNP conveybelt of ignorance and forget that in 2010 it was Labor’s Marn Ferguson who was trying to vilify Greens for saying too much and campaigning against both Burrup and Browse basin.
Greens will not derail mines: ALP
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/greens-will-not-derail-mines-alp/news-story/65e7a128586e9aa3fa24075e4cfbd1f8
Marn Ferguson evidently earned his sinecure as a Fossil Fuel lobbyist at APPEA for his hard work criticising Greens for talking about these developments at the time.
Kimberley’s gas hub to become industrial wasteland – Greens (20113)
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/kimberleys-gas-hub-to-become-industrial-wasteland–greens,5075
Interesting article Itza.
700 mud holes. The lesson surely is that if you do it cheaply you’ll end up paying for it.
Bring on HSR. It may cost more but the standards that come with it mean much higher safety
Only watched a couple of minutes of it so far, but Bernie does not seem to be very popular with the live crowd in the Dem debates. Biden being well received, along with Liz and Bloomberg. Haven’t heard from the others yet.
Cud Chewer @ #143 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 12:23 pm
* Iran
* South Korea
* Tenerife
Greensborough Growler @ #150 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 12:42 pm
perfect for the tube
Yep C@t those too
ItzaDream @ #145 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 12:25 pm
I made a point of noting the unforseen ill effects of globalisation wrt COVID 19 and the Austrian receptionist in a Northern Italian resort who has contracted the disease.
This lack of expertise, as we privatise to the lowest overseas bidder, is another facet of the same problem.
The December quarter GDP will not be healthy and that was before the full bushfire and virus forces hit the economy.
The government did nothing in that quarter to help affected sectors or communities hit by the fires and continues to do very little even now.
All of the announcements re financial support made by Morrison including the $2 bilion bushfire package were just hot air. Nothing significant has been invested by the government to support anyone and nothing significant has been invested to support any sector of the economy. All piss and wind. Everything is off into the never never.
Now we can add in what is appearing to be a significant hit from the virus and a perfect storm has arrived. Yet, Morrison continues to do nothing.
Now is the time to open the purse strings and spend. No point in waiting until the economy potentially tanks and then hit the piggy bank. The budget is in May and that is too far away to wait to announce any “ stimulus “measures yet at this point in time that is exactly what it appears Josh is considering.
Labor should continue to push for fiscal action now and let Morrison and co wallow in indecision and pig headed refusal to do anything labor suggests.
The longer they wait the more any response down the line will look like too little too late as two quarters of at least near negative growth await with all the economic downside that will bring.
How will Morrison respond as the calls get louder from labor and business to act now ?
It can’t be fashionable unless it expensive, impractical and uncomfortable..
Time for me to dress up.. where are my flip flops…
This is a very good example of the federal LNP government’s funding priorities. Better to throw money at particular electorates, certain demographics and chosen businesses than properly fund infrastructure.
” I am inclined to think that the Millenials have cooked this one up to bump the Boomers.”
not so, but they’ll be deliberately sneezing on you when they get it.
How we X-ers love being invisible in the “OK Boomer” bullshite.
The coalition’s over 75 voter base could take beating.
AR, the situation still persists: we don’t know all the transmission means, we don’t know how long symptomless carriers remain infectious (and ditto for those WITH symptoms), and 99%-plus of those infected are still Chinese.
If it makes you feel any better, I won’t be travelling ANYWHERE overseas for quite a while, including Europe in particular. Which irks me no end, as we were just about to book a holiday in – of all places – the Canary Islands.
If you:
● had been a smoker for decades (stupidly, but now off combustible nicotine for two years, as of yesterday),
● had once had pneumonia (And never wants to go through that agony again),
● saw both his parents die from pneumonia (non-smoking mother viral, smoking father bacterial),
● had a sister (non-smoking) who nearly had life support turned off from viral pneumonia in her forties,
● and generally came from a family that had a demonstrated predisposition to lung disease,
you might not be so ready to spit out “Bullshit!” in the direction of anyone you deemed was being politically or socially incorrect, and dismiss their concerns with arguments designed to shame, belittle and typecast.
Having seen how this outbreak has been handled so far, with an emphasis on economic and political risks, public confusion and medical arse-covering, coupled with emotional name-calling by people who live to label, I’d rather not take any chances I don’t have to.
I’m just as bad during regular flu season, only everyone is under suspicion then, not just the (so far) easily identifiable ethnic grouping from which 99%-plus of cases are coming.
If you’re so confident of your invulnerability, and think your liberal attitude is as good as a vaccine, go ahead and act on that. Just don’t come anywhere near me when you catch something nasty.
C@tmomma @ #157 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 12:53 pm
C@t, it is so dispiriting. I sheet it back to Howard, the nasty and totally inadequate luddite.
(alert alert – bernie post coming -whooop whooop)
citizen @ #160 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 12:57 pm
While thrashing around calling yourself the infrastructure govt, or PM, or whatevs
that fashion photo brings this to mind
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=498432967406041
it’s worth the time
Something cute to brighten you your day: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10111588594849821&set=gm.4043408609006206&type=3&theater&ifg=1
doyley @ #158 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 12:54 pm
I agree. This is the time. This is the time for Labor to use its economic record and GFC stimulus record with proven and globally recognised efficacy to call them out and challenge everything they stand for.
Izadream
“Latex inflatable trousers. We’ll all be wearing these soon.”
I’m wearing them today – very practical. I ate a particularly spicy Indian curry last night. My co-workers are grateful.
Citizen
The track the XPT crashed on dates to the 60s btw
Off to Spain and Portugal tomorrow for a month, very conscious of the risk of the coronavirus, and so am armed with hand sanitisers, masks and best of all a trusty pharmacist friend who is very thorough.
Our other halves think we are overcautious but I think that they might change their minds once reality sets in.
I asked earlier about those air hand -driers and whether there is a risk of droplets being transmitted via the air conditioning in large shopping centres. Does anyone know?
Difficult to know whether we’d have grounds to cancel now anyway….insurance policy clauses are not clear, and suspect we would need a formal Govt advisory statement to not travel.
Cat
Thanks for the link to the rail safety article. I am sure Cud would agree if I say that the decline in engineering expertise in public sector organisations in the past decade has become infuriating. The tragic and avoidable deaths of the two workers on the XPT train is a classic example of the end result.
But as you say, it is not only safety that suffers. Consider the calamitous budgeting and delivery of many projects, with massive cost overruns, time blowouts, capacity less than promised (here’s looking at you Malcolm), not to mention unnecessary projects like toll roads for which there was insufficient demand (here’s looking at you, Campbell).
All these outcomes demonstrate a decline in technical expertise of the governing authority, or a Minister ignoring the experts as they are too busy appeasing their business buddies, or both. The Grattan institute recently pointed out that around 75% of the cost overruns on publicly funded infrastructure projects occur on the projects announced politically before they have gone through a proper planning process. Politicised decision making over infrastructure is the primary problem.
This isn’t just annoying to engineers. We all know productivity growth in Australia has virtually ceased in the years since Gillard left office. This is despite a lot of spending. But if you spend money on the wrong projects, in the wrong place, with the wrong contractual mechanism, there is no guarantee of any improvement in the economy. As we are seeing.
sustainable you had me laughing my tits off on a train 🙂
Quasar @ #170 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 1:08 pm
All the best. I think hand sanitisers in the plane are of critical importance (mindful of the 100ml thingy). As I’ve said before, getting in and out of a plane toilet with your elbows ain’t easy. They should be installed at every plane toilet, and then some.
I’ve got a major music festival booked in the Netherlands in May, and am getting edgy about it.
citizen:
[‘I’m sure that Morrison is busy searching for the part of the world least likely to be infected, as his next holiday destination when the sh*t hits the fan.’]
I don’t think there have been any recorded cases of COVID-19 on Nauru. Perhaps he could go there under the guise of inspecting the conditions that refugees are kept under. In all seriousness, I don’t have confidence in him in to lead the nation through what is shaping up as an unprecedented health crisis, bearing in mind rhwombat’s caution against panicking.
Socrates agreed.
The lack of in house expertise shows in the CBD light rail. Compare that to the approach taken for the Gold Coast light rail.
How to get it wrong by hiring overseas consultants without a clue versus how to get it right by thinking about it carefully and paying attention to detail.
The 2013 HSR was a similar type of failure.
Here I go again …
why not Bernie?
(2 weeks old, pre Nevada)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afjlmKoAUTI
(Off to pick up two Elms from the nursery sale … back ‘ron)
Btw Socrates (or anyone else interested) I’m still mulling over and refining my HSR network design.
Cud Chewer @ #175 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 1:18 pm
C C I had my first ride on it (the red snail) the other night. One stop was all I could bear. It’s a camel.
citizen:
[‘I’m sure that Morrison is busy searching for the part of the world least likely to be infected, as his next holiday destination when the sh*t hits the fan.’]
There’s a reason why Australia is getting involved in the USAs moon plans. Failing that it will be Antartica…
Friend of mine is off on a cruise today. She booked it a week ago at a cheap rate. Cheap because there had been so many cancellations due to COVID-19’s bad publicity re. cruise ships.
She’s taking hand sanitizer, P2 masks, and a box of disposable gloves (the latter at my suggestion).
I told her I reckon she’s crazy, as she gets hit really hard by lung complaints, even by a cold. She has had pneumonia twice in the last 10 years. When I saw her for lunch in Sydney a few weeks ago she could hardly breathe from the smog.
“But it’s so cheap!” was the reply.
Her husband is going with her. He suffers from asbestosis as a result of working on building sites when he was a uni student. His twin brother, a thoracic surgeon, died from it. He worked alongside his brother on those building sites.
All I could do was wish her “Bon voyage”. What else can you say?
No-one knows the method of transmission for sure, or if they do we are not being told. But it’s a bloody infectious virus.
Some statistics:
There are around 1.2 million Australians of Chinese descent.
They are mostly Australians. Not Chinese.
We take in around 100,000 Chinese students in any one year.
About 750,000 Australians tour China per annum.
About 750,000 Chinese tour Australia per annum.
Around 1.2 million Chinese tourists visit Bali per annum.
Around 1 million Australians visit Bali per annum.
I don’t know how many travelers of any description travel to and from China via a third country.
An unknown number of business travelers travel both ways.
Statistically, globally, the most likely source of infection for a non-Chinese person outside of China is a non-Chinese person.
I suspect that Morrison will be treating coronavirus victims differently to bushfire victims when it comes to a forced handshake.
From Itza’s video
Michael Moore: This will be decided in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pensylvania. I know what will work there. Safe will not work. Biden? We will lose. Because Biden is Hilary and Hilary is Dukakis Mondale and Gore.. and every time we lose its always because we’re trying to play it safe. How did Trump win? Playing it safe?..
“Because. Earrings.”
“Larissa couldn’t fit…onto her ear rings”
***
No worries! LNP Senator and total nutcase Ian MacDonald has found an incredibly stylish solution to the problem of not having big enough earrings! 😛
At least we know where he stands…
Funniest comment I’ve read all day.
Transmission rate: 2-3.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Michael Moore to CBC journalist: You should out together a clip thing on CBC on everyone who called Franklin Rosevelt a communist. That was the number one thing he was called.
Maybe we could get mobs of people wearing “coronavirus” t shirts walking around offering Scomo a handshake. Would not fail to make the news.
citizen @ #182 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 1:29 pm
😆 😆 😆
Cud Chewer @ #183 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 1:31 pm
That’s why I’m for the Gay Guy from the Mid West. 😀
Cud
Thanks and agreed. I haven’t personally worked on HSR around Sydney but generally my view would be that we should be planning HSR from capitals to major regional dormitory areas that have large commuting volumes first, and true inter-capital city routes second. So Sydney Brisbane and Melbourne to Newcastle, Wooloongong, Canberra, Geelong, Gold and Sunshine Coasts first, with the potential to be extended as genuine long distance inter-city routes later. Our primary issue is urban and sub-regional capacity, not inter-city.
We are already spending huge amounts on private toll roads (e.g. WestConnex $30+ billion; Melbourne NE Link $14 billion) so you could build some substantial HSR links for that sort of money. And keep it separate from existing tracks and systems to maximise performance and minimise compromise and cost. Of course, we still need to fix track on our existing networks.
Thanks Itza and BB.
Thinking of your friends, BB, it brings to mind the alternative, my mother and her nursing-home inmates who spend their years watching TV , coffin -dodging.
She finally decided she’d had enough and three months short of 100, decided to refuse food, medication and water.
She was a homebody, her outings mainly limited to mass and doctors .
I try to avoid both.
I reckon the safest place to go will be America. Where my son is going soon. They have a germophobe as President. 🙂
Cud Chewer,
🙂 🙂
My bad.
Fake news correction:
We take in around 140,000 Chinese students in any one year, not 100,000 as stated above.
This year around 100,000 Chinese students returned to China for the long break.
Chinese tourism and Chinese students are worth around $22 billion a year to the Australian economy.
So the Democrates, in response to Trump, are deciding to put up a bloke who will be 79 come the election and with , what are seen as “out there” policies for a fairly conservative electorate.
Perhaps these people should do two things
1) read Joe Baegents “Deer Hunting for Jesus”, it might be somewhat of an old edition now, but the issues that he highlighted still hold true today.
2) Reflect on just why Trump won in 2016, particularly with the traditionally “democrat” electorates.
If you can do the above, it might actually give you a realistic idea on how to defeat Trump in November.
Yessirrebob
“So the Democrates, in response to Trump, are deciding to put up a bloke who will be 79 come the election and with “out there” policies that would seem to be extreme for a fairly conservative electorate.”
Yeah… but the kids love him!
It should be pointed out that Michael Moore’s electoral crystal-ball gazing is not always stellar
As President Romney will tell you 🙂
In other news I see Keir Starmer got a shout out earlier, I was going to mention yesterday that the ballot papers start going out this week for the Labour leadership elections
I like Keir (don’t mention Brexit 🙁 ) but this member of the Labour left is casting a first preference for one of the Lancashire lasses
C@t
I don’t think the American medical system will be able to cope covid19. There are far too many people who can’t access medical care.
C@t so politics is best done without condoms? Makes sense..