No Newspoll this week it seems. News you can use:
• Queensland’s elections on the weekend are covered in extensive and ongoing detail here. To cut a long story short: the state by-elections of Bundamba and Currumbin resulted in victories for the incumbent parties, namely Labor and the Liberal National Party respectively; Adrian Schrinner of the LNP was re-elected as lord mayor of Brisbane; and the LNP have almost certainly retained a healthy majority on Brisbane City Council. In Bundamba, the LNP ran third behind One Nation (and probably shouldn’t have bothered to run), whose presence in the field also took a bite out of the Labor primary vote. Labor did manage to improve their primary vote at the LNP’s expense in Currumbin, where One Nation is a lot weaker, but the latter’s presence means they will get a lower share of the combined preferences and thus fail to bite into the LNP’s existing 3.3% margin. There has been no notional two-party count, but scrutineers’ figures cited by Antony Green suggest Labor received an uncommonly weak 71% share of Greens preferences.
• Roy Morgan’s promise that it would provide further detail on its half-way intriguing findings on trust in political and business leaders (see here and here) has borne disappointing fruit. Rather than provide the trust and distrust scores as most of us would have hoped, a follow-up release offers only blurry impressions as to the specific attributes that caused the various leaders to be trusted or distrusted, in which “honest/genuine” and “integrity/sincerity” were uselessly listed as distinct response options.
• The Tasmanian government has delayed the date for the periodical Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the seats of Huon and Rosevears, but only from May 2 to May 30. The Tasmanian Electoral Commission says this will give it more time to “ensure electors have access to the voting process and to maintain the integrity of the 2020 Legislative Council elections during the COVID-19 pandemic”, which presumably means a greater emphasis on postal, pre-poll and maybe telephone voting.
The US ,as with other places, is facing a shortage of ventilators. turns out they started prepping for such a shortage 13 years ago but………
——————————————————-
The U.S. Tried to Build a New Fleet of Ventilators. The Mission Failed.
As the coronavirus spreads, the collapse of the project helps explain America’s acute shortage.
Thirteen years ago, a group of U.S. public health officials came up with a plan to address what they regarded as one of the medical system’s crucial vulnerabilities: a shortage of ventilators.
Money was budgeted. A federal contract was signed. Work got underway.
And then things suddenly veered off course. A multibillion-dollar maker of medical devices bought the small California company that had been hired to design the new machines. The project ultimately produced zero ventilators.
The federal government started over with another company in 2014, whose ventilator was approved only last year and whose products have not yet been delivered.
Today, with the coronavirus ravaging America’s health care system, the nation’s emergency-response stockpile is still waiting on its first shipment
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/business/coronavirus-us-ventilator-shortage.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
Comes back to bite you in the ass.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/29/china-coronavirus-anti-foreigner-feeling-imported-cases
The growing madness of Dotard is evident in a string of tweets with a similar theme, as US confirmed cases clear 135,000 and deaths 2,300. What is forefront of the mind of them leader of the free world’?
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Michael Koziol reports that public health experts have called on Prime Minister Scott Morrison to release the modelling the government is using to make major decisions on coronavirus shut downs, arguing it would boost confidence in those choices and give people more clarity about when life may return to normal.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/show-us-the-modelling-give-us-a-time-frame-experts-plea-to-morrison-20200327-p54eqv.html
And Sean Kelly says Morrison must give us more detail if we are to trust his judgment.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-must-give-us-more-detail-if-we-are-to-trust-his-judgment-20200329-p54f1i.html
Michael Bachelard gets out the crystal ball to see what lies on the other side. Well worth reading.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/covid-19-crisis-what-will-australia-look-like-on-the-other-side-20200327-p54ei6.html
So does Sean Carney who says nothing will ever be the same again.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/after-our-period-of-hibernation-nothing-will-be-the-same-again-20200321-p54chv.html
Scott Morrison has offered coronavirus wage guarantee for those who have lost jobs, but details still to come writes Amy Remeikis.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/29/australia-open-to-uk-style-wage-subsidy-to-ease-coronavirus-pain-cormann-says
Economist Angela Jackson writes that our social safety net faces its biggest test in generations. Shea says the age of thriving not surviving is over for the time being.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/our-social-safety-net-faces-its-biggest-test-in-generations-20200329-p54eyt.html
A combination of wage subsidies and loan guarantees is the only way to hold together employers, workers, and ultimately the Australian economy writes Kevin Rudd who takes the opportunity to put the boot into the critics of his handling of the GFC.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/crisis-calls-for-a-double-guarantee-covering-wages-and-loans-20200329-p54ex9
The SMH editorial makes the point that this pandemic will demand a dramatic expansion of our mental health system.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/pandemic-will-demand-dramatic-expansion-of-mental-health-system-20200329-p54f21.html
We cannot wait two weeks – we must go into lockdown now for the sake of our healthcare workers writes immunologist Professor John Dwyer.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-cannot-wait-two-weeks-we-must-go-into-lockdown-now-for-the-sake-of-our-healthcare-workers-20200329-p54f1b.html
Michelle Grattan asks, “Which leaders and health experts will be on the right side of history on COVID-19 policy?”
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6701093/which-leaders-and-health-experts-will-be-on-the-right-side-of-history-on-covid-19-policy/?cs=14258
David Crowe says that foreign buyers will be slapped with tougher rules to prevent them acquiring Australian companies during the coronavirus crisis amid plunging share prices and fears of predatory takeovers.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/foreign-buyers-face-scrutiny-on-every-bid-after-sharemarket-slump-20200329-p54f1s.html
Our greatest failure has been the decline of our democracy laments John Lord.
https://theaimn.com/our-greatest-failure-has-been-the-decline-of-our-democracy/
It looks like it will be another brutal week for retailer stores.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/store-closures-jobs-losses-retail-industry-braces-for-another-brutal-week-20200329-p54ezt.html
Dr Steven Hail believes that government spending can save the economy from serious recession in the wake of Covid-19.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/modern-monetary-theory-covid-19-and-the-economy,13726
Sydney scientists have developed a world-first COVID-19 diagnostic tool to help frontline healthcare workers rapidly identify patients. The free online program trains doctors to spot COVID-19 in CT scans of patients’ lungs.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/world-first-tool-to-help-medicos-detect-covid-19-could-save-thousands-of-lives-20200329-p54f1w.html
The coronavirus is the worst intelligence failure in US history writes Mikah Zenko. He says Trump’s judgments are highly transmissible, infecting the thinking and behaviour of nearly every official or adviser who comes in contact with the initial carrier.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/29/the-coronavirus-is-the-worst-intelligence-failure-in-us-history
Research scientist Tosh Szatow writes that it’s not too early though to start laying the groundwork for measuring our response and the critical data needed for the next pandemic.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/lockdown-or-no-lockdown-global-responses-lessons-for-the-next-pandemic/
In scenes reminiscent of September 11, 2001, emergency service workers are battling to save the dying in New York as the impact of coronavirus worsens.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/inside-war-zone-of-new-york-where-ambos-are-as-busy-as-september-11-20200329-p54f0m.html
Bloody idiots!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/29/church-goers-around-the-world-ignore-social-distance-advice
Today’s “Arsehole of the Week” nominee.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/he-spat-on-his-credit-card-retail-workers-fear-shoppers-behaving-badly-20200329-p54f1c.html
Cartoon Corner
Alan Moir
David Rowe
Matt Golding
Jim Pavlidis
Mark David
Glen Le Lievre
Michael Leunig
Johannes Leak
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/431e961a4d51c9a78fba9bc1c1fcefac?width=1024
From the US
FoxNews poll, A rated by Nate Silver has:
Biden/Harris 50
Trump/Pence 42
The methodology published is a lesson for the tripe put up by our local pollsters
https://www.scribd.com/document/453593148/Complete-results-Fox-News-Poll-March-21-24-2020
Check the answe to Q10 – How would you rate economic conditions today? Poor has increased from 14 to 37.
I see the drift by the Gentrified Greens to the Liberal Party continues.
Though they could have preferenced the Animal Justice Party ahead of Labor. Though I would have thought, in the age of animal to human transfer of Coronavirus, animals wouldn’t be too popular. However, Animal Justice do tend to concentrate on Domestic and Farm Animals before Wild Animal Markets in Wuhan. 🙂
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/lockdown-or-no-lockdown-global-responses-lessons-for-the-next-pandemic/
An importance (and hopefully developing) piece cautioning against, among other things, the way experts are regarded.
Hopefully the work will be more widely distributed than in MW.
It’s encouraging to see the number of daily new cases being reported continues to decrease following the stricter regime of inter-personal contacts introduced by the Government.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1243774895437250560
From the Age.
Cases to top 4000 in Australia, but daily rate of infection decreases
The number of Australians who have contracted the coronavirus will top 4000 on Monday, with 16 deaths as of Sunday night after a Victorian man in his 80s and a 75-year-old Queensland woman who was a passenger on board the Ruby Princess cruise ship became the latest victims.
Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy said the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases was much less than it would have been without mitigation measures, and early signs of a flattening of the disease curve were welcome.
He said daily rates of increase, which were between 25 per cent and 30 per cent last week, were now in the “low teens”.
There’s a definite pattern emerging:
1. Labor suggests a sensible move.
2. Senior Morrison government Minister or the Prime Minister, pooh poohs the idea on national TV and likely on 2GB.
3. Absolutely reputable expert in the field echoes Labor’s suggestion. For example:
We cannot wait two weeks – we must go into lockdown now for the sake of our healthcare workers writes immunologist Professor John Dwyer.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-cannot-wait-two-weeks-we-must-go-into-lockdown-now-for-the-sake-of-our-healthcare-workers-20200329-p54f1b.html
4. Government implements idea but makes it seem like it was all their own work. 🙄
Watched Where’s My Roy Cohn? on Friday night which I recommend although the history is told in a choppy way.
I did come away thinking that all the dozen or so people interviewed and putting the boot in, including family and his law partners, probably did not do so in his lifetime.
Rick WilsonVerified account @TheRickWilson
This is what you are to him, Americans.
An audience.
Not his constituents. Not the people who hired him. Not even humans.
You’re boxes in a spreadsheet of his Neilsen ratings.
Donald J. TrumpVerified account @realDonaldTrump
“President Trump is a ratings hit. Since reviving the daily White House briefing Mr. Trump and his coronavirus updates have attracted an average audience of 8.5 million on cable news, roughly the viewership of the season finale of ‘The Bachelor.’ Numbers are continuing to rise…
Re cover for those renting not being kicked out, they will still have to pay the outstanding amount. There is no relief to residential renters at all.
Yes those who own properties that are leased often have mortgages and can be under financial stress but there is a clear difference that is not highlighted at the moment.
Those renting do not own the property, no equity in the property therefore no power.
Those who own the property have the power – this is not highlighted.
The government is not actually doing anything and again it is up to states to put some protections in place.
This government is very good at blaming the states doing nothing and taking the credit.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/show-us-the-modelling-give-us-a-time-frame-experts-plea-to-morrison-20200327-p54eqv.html
Umm.. that’s got to be a silly question surely? Without an end game strategy no one could possibly answer it. Any strategy that does not involve mass testing does not have an end game. And without an end game strategy you would have to rely upon shut downs indefinitely – otherwise the virus would rebound. So the real question is, when is this government going to announce mass testing and with it a strategy to buy/make vast quantities of test kits?
C@t
Has Labor supported a lockdown? I was unaware if they had.
How to tell if your country is winning against covid19, or failing..
A Youtube video that goes deeper into the maths and meaning of that animated graph web page I’ve posted here earlier. A must view and also see the related web page.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/
Another must-view video. Its long but its worth it.
An interview with a South Korean expert.
Goes into a lot of basic questions about the virus and it explains in exact detail what South Korea has done so well and all of its procedures and protocols.
One interesting thing is he says, yes wearing a mask does actually reduce your chances of catching the virus. Skip to 16:00 if you want to see this bit.
In South Korea you can get tested if your doctor thinks its a good idea. Also you can rock up and get tested for about $140USD. If you test positive, you get your money back.
Also every person arriving at Incheon airport gets tested.
Another factoid. Until March 23, South Korea had done 338,000 tests. How did we stack up at that date?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU
Anyone want to group book a flight to Incheon? 🙂
Cud Chewer @ #17 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 7:49 am
Yes. There was footage of Chris Bowen yesterday on Insiders saying tougher measures needed to be put in place, NOW! Not next week.
It’s amazing how Horoscopes can be so cannily accurate with it’s predictions.
Someone should do a reprise cartoon of Trump throwing paper towels to the Puerto Ricans but this time make it Ventilators to the Governors in the US.
So I guess with only a maximum of 2 people in any one space, that means flights intrastate will cease as well as flights interstate – you could fly to Sydney without having to self isolate for 14 days. Now there won’t be a flight.
Things are pretty grim in New York.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
From the Canberra Times article..
here’s a take on trump you don’t hear very often>
https://twitter.com/i/status/1244080002506907649
C@t
I’ll check that out.. How far into Insiders is it?
Reminds me of a “horrorscope” that was at one point regularly published. Many years ago.
The gist of it was that for every star sign, you’d have your own feast of pain, misery and disappointment. “Expect to break up with someone”. Etc.
Only it was particularly brutal to Capricorns. Always abrupt and depressing. Things like “Give up”.
I’m a Capricorn. I thought it was hilarious 🙂
Jodi Mackay and Ryan Park have advocated lockdown in NSW.
Thanks BK for assembling the Dawn Patrol.
From the BK Files.
In scenes reminiscent of September 11, 2001, emergency service workers are battling to save the dying in New York as the impact of coronavirus worsens.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/inside-war-zone-of-new-york-where-ambos-are-as-busy-as-september-11-20200329-p54f0m.html
The richest country in the world.
Fortunately we Strayans have better in store with each of us prolly planning on an individual boot camp. 🥾 – good for kicking one self up the backside.
Song for the day (originally by “The Platters”).
Only you (Mr. Morrison) can make, all, this world seem right
Only you (Mr. Morrison) can make the darkness bright
Only you (Mr. Morrison) and you (Mr. Morrison) alone can thrill me like you (Mr. Morrison) do
And fill my heart with love for only you, (Mr. Morrison)
♫ Tra ♫♪ la ♪♫ la ♫
Yes, I remembered my mediation. 💊 ☕
Interestingly the N95 masks mentioned in the article above are going for about 10 – 15 dollars each with 10 filters (EBay). 😷
NSW is on the way to testing 100,000 people which is 1:800.
If South Korea has tested fewer than 400,000 it is testing about 1:1275
On that NEJM study about how covid19 can be detected for up to days on copper, cardboard, plastic etc:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/26/dont-panic-about-shopping-getting-delivery-or-accepting-packages/?utm_campaign=wp_week_in_ideas&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_ideas
Breaking the chain:
– Bring parcels off your front stoop and just inside your front door and leave them there for a time or wipe the package down with disinfectant before opening it outdoors and discarding the packaging immediately. Wash your hands after touching it and before touching anything inside your home.
– When grocery shopping don’t touch your face while out shopping. Wash your hands immediately when you get home and before touching anything in the home. Put your groceries away and immediately wash your hands afterwards.
– Wipe items you need to use immediately with disinfectant when you get them home.
NSW new cases at 127 should keep the national figure in the 300s
Mr. Morrison said yesterday that when the States depart from the National Cabinet position it is not a departure but solidarity – or WTTE. 😵😵😵
The governments shipment of masks has no N95 masks only P2 and surgical masks.
What do we know about the coming wage subsidy so far?
It will be up to $1500 a fortnight for full time workers
It will be paid to the employer, to keep employees on the payroll
There will be “legal obligations” for employers who access the payments, to ensure it does go to keeping workers employed.
It will be the single biggest measure of the stimulus so far
Some parts of it will require a recall of parliament.
The government is going to release its “call me anything but a wage subsidy “ package today.
Unless the subsidy includes casual, gig workers and sole traders then it is not good enough.
Expect noise and numbers and pats on the back from the government but if the subsidy only applies to permanents then it is letting up to 3.3 million casuals and others hanging.
Morning all and thanks for the roundup BK. Looking at the rate of infection per person in every State it certainly pays to liven in a State with a Labor premier right now. Victoria and WA lowest, NSW and SA highest.
It is good that Scomo has finally agreed to income support and the two person meeting limit. Though, like everything else, he had to be dragged kicking and screaming to this step, weeks after experts told him to do it. Stay healthy everyone.
Confessions,
Airports are exempt, like public transport.
Very quiet at BNE airport this morning. (My flight home last night was cancelled; taking a detour via Melbourne today.)
Australian environment scores 0.8 out of 10 for 2019
This report is just up until the end of the year, before many of the fires really took off
‘Probably the worst year in a century’: the environmental toll of 2019
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/30/probably-the-worst-year-in-a-century-the-environmental-toll-of-2019
The index of environmental conditions in Australia scored 2019 at 0.8 out of 10 – the worst result across all the years analysed from 2000.
The year delivered unprecedented bushfires, record heat, very low soil moisture, low vegetation growth and 40 additions to the threatened species list.
The report’s lead author, Prof Albert van Dijk of the Australian National University’s Fenner school of environment and society, told Guardian Australia 2019 was “probably the worst in a century or more” for the environment.
“This is not the new normal – this is just getting worse and worse,” he said, adding that 2019 had seen a “continuing descent into an ever more dismal future. You start to see ecosystems fall apart and then struggle to recover before the next major disturbance.”
Interactive website of the report, with a datamap and you can get regional, electorate and LGA based reports
https://www.wenfo.org/aer/
here’s a take on trump you don’t hear very often>
https://twitter.com/i/status/1244080002506907649
_____
GG
Clearly a case of Stockholm syndrome!
shellbell
Look at the rules. In NSW (has changed slightly recently to include some very minor exceptions) you have to have symptoms and you have to either have come from overseas or have had contact with someone from overseas.
If you have symptoms but you don’t know how you got infected, you don’t get tested. You’ll go on to infect other people and they will be excluded from testing. So if your figures are right then we’ve been putting a lot of effort into chasing down contact chains of people who arrived from overseas and were allowed into the community.
Whereas in South Korea, practically anyone with symptoms, regardless of who they had had contact with, got tested. Plus they are willing to test you straight up, no questions asked, if you pay for it.
One reason they can do this is that they weren’t wasting tests on people allowed into the community from overseas. They were all isolated.
In any case this does not change one simple fact. We are not testing nearly enough people here to head down community transmission and our rules are making this impossible.
Jaeger:
That’s good to know. Some regional towns in WA like ours rely on flights from Perth for medical supplies.
shellbell
“NSW new cases at 127 should keep the national figure in the 300s”
Diagnosed cases. Not actual. See above – we’re not testing for community transmission so its pretty meaningless.
Edit: To make this clearer. What we are seeing is tailing off of overseas sourced cases plus we are flying blind with respect to community transmission. So yeah, don’t trust the figures.
BK
That was deeply disturbing. Thanks :-s
Trumps latest tweets should surprise no one.
Sigh….
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_South_Korea
Very comprehensive and updated to 29/3….very detailed reporting of the pandemic in SK.
FWIW my own view is that we’re about 2 weeks behind the eastern states. We still have cruise ships docking in Perth for goodness sakes.
Hopefully the stronger measures the feds have introduced the past week, coupled with lockdown measures the state govt are introducing this week will mean we don’t catch up with the rate of infection growth that states like NSW has seen.
Cud Chewer @ #45 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 8:29 am
Flutracking is monitoring community cases that are below the radar. They have expanded their weekly questionaire to include mild C-19 symptoms.