Essential Research: coronavirus restrictions and conspiracy theories

A poll suggests a significant proportion of the population believes coronavirus was engineered in a Chinese laboratory, but other conspiracy theories remain consigned to the fringe.

Courtesy of The Guardian, some headline results of another weekly Essential Research poll on coronavirus, the full report of which should be published later today. This includes regular questions on federal and state governments’ handling with the crisis, of which we are only told that respondents remain highly positive, and on easing restrictions, for which we are told only 25% now consider it too soon, which is down two on last time and has been consistently declining over five surveys.

Beyond that, the survey gauged response to a number of what might be described as conspiracy theories concerning the virus. By far the most popular was the notion that the virus “was engineered and released from a Chinese laboratory in Wuhan”, which has received a certain amount of encouragement from the Daily Telegraph but is starkly at odds with the scientific consensus. Agreement and disagreement with this proposition was tied on 39%.

Thirteen per cent subscribed to a theory that Bill Gates was involved in the creation and spread of the virus, with 71% disagreeing; 13% agreed the virus was not dangerous and was being used to force people to get vaccines, with 79% disagreeing; 12% thought the 5G network was being used to spread the virus, with 75% disagreeing; and 20% agreed the number of deaths was being exaggerated, with “more than 70%” disagreeing. The poll also found 77% agreed that the outbreak in China was worse than the official statistics showed.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1073.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,318 comments on “Essential Research: coronavirus restrictions and conspiracy theories”

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  1. Socrates

    I think a certain amount of this comes from “you can’t trust experts” and “I’ll do my own research, thanks.” Added to plain ignorance and lack of logic, of course: “My brother Basil is smart and if he says so… I don’t have time to do that stuff myself.”

  2. Re the conspiracy theory stuff, I tend to invent all manner of wild stories up in my head thinking this will be a good plot line, then I find out that it is true about the current federal government. I have a feeling they are copying my material…

    Bit like the Yes Minister guys who wrote about a hospital with administrators but no patients, only then to discover several of them were like that.

  3. Socrates

    Maybe not. This pandemic has been a huge game changer.

    For one thing a lot of toxic magazines have folded. Newscorpse circulation is way down and Foxtel is drowning in debt. It’s news services have a small audience and soon maybe the ABC will be forced to give prominence to online diversity.

    Insiders actually mentioned the Saturday Paper.

    There is hope. 🙂

    Edit: I fogot to add Alan Jones forced off the airwaves. That’s a good indicator of changing political forces.

  4. Poroti

    True. I have encountered such people when trying to explain climate change. They find science like a foreign language. Yet they are capable of learning some things. They choose not to learn about others. I have found it more effective to explain a scientific concept to them as a story linked to life experience, if possible.

    I know all the political strategists say never to criticise people for beliefs. But at some point I think you have to say “you don’t know what you are talking about”.

  5. Socrates @ #37 Tuesday, May 19th, 2020 – 6:10 am

    There was a Conversation piece (well written) about a poll of leading economists on whether the lockdown was worth it. Over 70% said yes.

    Yet this is one issue where the economists should be ignored. Economists get in trouble when they imagine they can answer all questions. The inventor of welfare economics warned that it should only be used to decide between similar, measurable things. Fundamental social issues, like whether to feed the poor, should be decided on ethical and political grounds in a democracy.

    In this case, we don’t even know what the long term risks are from the virus. So we should listen to the doctors, who are the real experts.

    I think you’ll find that they were commenting on the economics.

  6. Barney

    A few were but some were not. This is one case where we do not know the cost. So we should not be weighing up the cost versus lockdown consequences. We have to learn to live with social distancing until we have a vaccine. That might mean assisting those whose normal livelihoods are stopped for some time., or helping them find a new livelihood.

  7. Spot on by Max Boot. While the media chase Trump down the rabbit hole, he and his cronies in the WH just continue on their merry corrupt ways.

    “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste.” — Former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel

    President Trump is not letting the coronavirus crisis go to waste. He is using the cover of the pandemic to punish the helpless, take revenge on his enemies, reward his supporters, eliminate checks on his authority and generally implement his monarchical view of presidential power. As he said last year in a creative bit of constitutional interpretation: “I have an Article 2, where I have the right to do whatever I want as president.” Now he is actually doing whatever he wants with remarkably little pushback.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/18/trump-is-using-coronavirus-cover-abuse-his-authority/

  8. I think I’ll do a lot of reading and not much commenting today. Suffice to say that about 1.5/10 Australians seem to be un-Enlightened and willing to believe the most outrageous things because they now exist within self-reinforcing bubbles that are hard to break. Thank goodness it seems to be pretty consistently staying at that level.

  9. Socrates @ #56 Tuesday, May 19th, 2020 – 6:29 am

    Barney

    A few were but some were not. This is one case where we do not know the cost. So we should not be weighing up the cost versus lockdown consequences. We have to learn to live with social distancing until we have a vaccine. That might mean assisting those whose normal livelihoods are stopped for some time., or helping them find a new livelihood.

    Most were!

    I think it was the London School of Economics(?) that released a paper modelling the costs to the Economy of restrictions vs no restrictions.

    They found that the costs of no restrictions far exceeded those where restrictions had been implemented.

  11. Final thought for the morning was I watched ABC’s Four Corners last night. It only dealt with events within the Canberra bubble on climate change policy history so aspects like disinformation campaigns were left out. Nevertheless it pointed out some of the personal political failings quite accurately, though Tony Abbott was conspicuous by his absence.

    I can only share the frustration of policy makers in Australia’s political class of the 2000s, Liberal, Labor and Green, in failing to deal with a major problem for which there were and are technical and economic solutions. History will correctly damn most members of that political class, with apologies to those like Penny Wong who really tried.

    Likewise, I find myself tired and frustrated by those elements of Australian society who have facilitated this failure through their voting patterns. Whether it is a Labor voter in the Hunter Valley or an LNP voter in Cronulla, Tamworth or Rockhampton, or a One Nation voter in north Qld, a lot of selfish ignorant people have voted for a very unworthy group of representatives. Sometimes blame for failure needs to be owned.

    Have a good day all.

  12. I mentioned a few weeks back that I’d been unable to get any work recently due to the Covid-19 shutdown, and as an agency/casual worker was not covered by the furlough scheme

    Amazingly however I managed to secure a new full-time job “on the books” as an actual employee 🙂

    First shift was today – a very short day shift, form-filling and the like – and then on to permanent nights from tomorrow

    I’ll mainly be doing overnight food deliveries to the major supermarket distribution centres

  13. Socrates

    The USA has approx 330 million people. It is not difficult to understand that a small portion of them are gullible and cray cray. But I dont expect that from Australians.
    But as you point out those that are getting screwed by their own party, will continue to vote for them. So there is some serious cognitive dissonance going on

  14. From Dawn Patrol: ”Stephen Bartholomeusz explains how The US is playing a dangerous game as it seeks new pressure points to demonstrate how tough it is on China.”

    Something that Australia should stay well out of but with this Government won’t.

  16. C@t:

    I’d like to see an age breakdown for the conspiracy theory believers. I’m inclined to think the majority of them are older and therefore from a generation that didn’t have the high rates of high school completion or high levels of education that later generations had.

  19. Guardian

    The South Australian premier has indicated he will be keeping SA’s borders closed for as long as his state’s medical officer deems it necessary, which could be until after winter – which would make it September, the same as Queensland, and yet he doesn’t seem to be facing the same ‘bring down the borders’ chant from the feds.

    I wonder what the difference could be?

    Tradition?

  20. Confessions
    says:
    Tuesday, May 19, 2020 at 8:40 am
    C@t:
    I’d like to see an age breakdown for the conspiracy theory believers. I’m inclined to think the majority of them are older and therefore from a generation that didn’t have the high rates of high school completion or high levels of education that later generations had.

    Sorry to disappoint, but stupidity seems to flow from one generation to the next. Even some educated people fall for this garbage (see Malcolm Roberts). What chance do the children of these people have given the constant stream of garbage they are exposed to at home.
    Plenty of young morons too.

  21. Fess

    Apparently Facebook is the premier source.

    Recently a friend had to show their friend how ridiculous it was to believe the conspiracy theories he was showing him from Facebook.

    It took my friend a few minutes to find that the slickly made video by someone dressed in doctor apparel, had been convicted of fraud in a former life.

    I just dont get it.

  22. Ray

    Good to hear. Stay safe.

    It’s a terrible price but it is good to see Johnson losing in the polls. The voters may finally be waking out of the propaganda phase of politics in the UK.

  23. The South Australian premier has indicated he will be keeping SA’s borders closed for as long as his state’s medical officer deems it necessary, which could be until after winter – which would make it September, the same as Queensland, and yet he doesn’t seem to be facing the same ‘bring down the borders’ chant from the feds.

    I wonder what the difference could be?

    Well it isn’t because SA has a coalition state govt, because WA’s borders are also shut and there isn’t chants to our Labor govt to reopen them. I suspect it’s because our media is largely Sydney-centric that everything west of Bathurst is forgotten.

  24. It’s funny – conspiracy theories are scoffed at here – yet this site lives off conspiracy theories about neoliberals and “ those that are getting screwed by their own party, will continue to vote for them. So there is some serious cognitive dissonance” and the PM and Hillsong, the marital fidelity of past LNP PMs and their COS and on and on they go.

    Have a good look at yourselves in the mirror. Truly FMD.

  26. Social distancing and all of the other measures seem well worthwhile to combat a virus which if no action is taken would infect most Australians and kill 1% of those infected, or more likely 2-3% if it overwhelms the health system, which on these numbers it would. Without action we’re talking 150,000 to 500,000 Australian deaths, with several times that number getting very sick.

    On the other hand, we don’t bother with normal flu, which infects maybe 10% of the population each year and kills about 1/3000 of those it infects.

  27. Vic:

    True. There have been many studies which have shown older generations are more susceptible to fake news on social media.

  29. Buce

    It will help you to realise the biggest source of conspiracy theories outside FaceBook in Australia is Newscorp.

    Just watch Mediawatch

  31. Victoria/lizzie/Guytaur

    Thanks muchly 🙂

    Victoria, yes according to the Cambridge University study last week the R-number is o.9 – highest in the UK – in Yorkshire and the North-East currently 🙁

    Mind you those figures didn’t pass the smell test to me .. particularly as the London number was so low

    edit : thanks KayJay

  33. Is this going to be another article of impeachment?

    Brandi Buchman
    @BBuchman_CNS
    Amplifying scrutiny on the recent firing of the State Department inspector general, one lawmaker revealed Monday that Steve Linick had been investigating not only Secretary Mike Pompeo but President Donald Trump as well.
    https://courthousenews.com/newly-fired-watchdog-at-state-was-investigating-trump/
    @CourthouseNews
    Newly Fired Watchdog at State Was Investigating Trump
    Amplifying scrutiny on the recent firing of the State Department inspector general, one lawmaker revealed Monday that Steve Linick had been investigating not only Secretary Mike Pompeo but President…
    courthousenews.com

  34. I’d say the Queensland border has more people crossing on a daily basis as well as trucks and other vehicles of commerce. SA, not so much.

    Opening up the Queensland border would also be a boon for the Tourist Industry.

    So, there is more economic imperative to open the Northern Border and the argument reduces to public health versus economic activity.

    You just have to assume the Queensland and NSW Governments are acting in good faith.

  37. “ Thirteen per cent subscribed to a theory that Bill Gates was involved in the creation and spread of the virus”

    “ 13% agreed the virus was not dangerous and was being used to force people to get vaccines”

    “12% thought the 5G network was being used to spread the virus”

    That 12-13% range is within a margin of error of the range that the Greens appear to be polling at since the election.

    Coincidence? I think not.

  38. Jaeger

    The “go north for the winter” is very strong in older southerners, until they move there permanently. I think of them as the blue-rinse matronly set!

  39. GG

    Yes. You nailed it. Plus Queensland showed with Rockhampton it’s ready with its test contact and trace. Just like Victoria.

    I think every state is in the same boat. Except maybe Tasmania that had federal assistance in the Northwest Coast case. However it was a large outbreak.

  41. The modelling of the pandemic has been wildly inaccurate. Economists modelling is accepted as almost always being inaccurate. And now we are expected to believe that the inaccuracies of economic modelling relying on wildly inaccurate pandemic modelling is useful data?

  46. Buce:’It’s funny – conspiracy theories are scoffed at here – yet this site lives off conspiracy theories about neoliberals and “ those that are getting screwed by their own party, will continue to vote for them. So there is some serious …’

    I’m adding that to my list of conspiracy theories.

  48. Those spreading conspiracy theories seem to be in two groups – crackpots who actually belief what they are writing/saying and those who do it for a particular purpose.

    The former group includes people who are themselves deluded and tell and and sundry what they believe.

    The latter group includes the masters of propaganda such as Murdoch or A Jones who seek to advance their own financial or political interests by influencing people they regard as impressionable or dim witted.

  50. PeeBee

    I’ve been driving on permanent nights since late 1999 .. it’s great, the only time you can get from Leeds to Manchester “ovver t’tops” – ie over the Pennines – on the M62 without sitting in a traffic jam 🙂

    Mind you I hear the lack of daytime traffic during the lockdown has been a real boon to the regular day drivers, almost like being on nights

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