Essential Research: coronavirus and bushfires

A new poll registers fears of a second coronavirus wave and prolonged economic slowdown, and finds concern about climate change still at a high pitch.

The Guardian reports this week’s Essential Research poll has still more results on coronavirus, together with some findings on climate change. On the former count, the poll found 63% rating a second wave of coronavirus as restrictions are eased as very likely or quite likely, with only 13% rating it very unlikely; more than 60% expected international travel restrictions to remain for between one and two years; 70% thought it would take between one and two years for employment to recover; 60% expected a prolonged impact on the housing market; more than 60% expected a vaccine would be developed “over the next few years”; and 58% that the population would build resistance through exposure over that time. Despite it all, 45% said they felt very or somewhat positive about the next 12 months compared with 33% for very or somewhat negative.

On climate change, 52% now think Australia is not doing enough, down eight on November, with 25% holding the contrary view, up three. Forty-two per cent said they were now more concerned about climate change than they were a year ago, with a further 46% saying they were no more or less concerned. Full results from the poll will be published later today. (UPDATE: Full report here).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,745 comments on “Essential Research: coronavirus and bushfires”

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  2. Australia and New Zealand will host the 2023 Women’s Football World Cup after their joint-bid received the most votes overnight.

    The trans-Tasman neighbours beat Colombia to win hosting rights for the showpiece event after all other contenders had dropped out of the race to leave just the two bids remaining.

    The successful bid received a technical score of 4.1 points out of five in FIFA’s evaluation report and that swayed 22 of the 35 members to vote in favour of the joint hosts over the South Americans.

  3. At last!

    In a strongly-worded letter to Mr Fletcher, seen by The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald, Ms Buttrose said the ABC’s board had asked her to “convey its concerns” about Mr Fletcher’s lack of response to correspondence between the pair in September last year.

    “We raised a number of issues but were particularly interested in seeing ‘the information – data, models and assumptions – which formed the basis for the savings estimates provided in the report’,” Ms Buttrose wrote.

    “I appreciate you have a busy schedule but we would appreciate an answer to our queries.”

    Ms Buttrose said several media reports, which ABC management believes were informed by Mr Fletcher, had suggested the ABC “had neglected to ‘collaborate more closely with SBS'”.

    “This is incorrect,” Ms Buttrose wrote. “David Anderson has had several conversations with SBS about sharing costs”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ita-buttrose-lashes-government-over-handling-of-abc-funding-cuts-20200625-p5569n.html

  4. Ian Mannix
    @sedvitae
    ·
    8m
    @theage and @smh stories about Ita Buttrose “slamming” Govt and “ war of words” are not reflected by the story. In fact looks more like “Ita assists Govt as ABC forced to cut budget.”

  6. Ita Buttrose quoted by Lizzie @6:46.
    “We raised a number of issues but were particularly interested in seeing ‘the information – data, models and assumptions – which formed the basis for the savings estimates provided in the report’,” Ms Buttrose wrote.”

    There’s no data, no models and other than antipathy towards the ABC no assumptions. The Government and its backers/owners oppose the very existence of the ABC and want to weaken it, with a view when politics allow to implement item 50 on the IPA wishlist “Break up the ABC and put out to tender each individual function”: https://ipa.org.au/ipa-review-articles/be-like-gough-75-radical-ideas-to-transform-australia.

  7. Fess

    Thank you. I’m trying to keep everything as routine as possible except I took a sleeping tablet last night!

  14. This is horrifying, esp when you consider that Trump ordered testing to be slowed down.

    The number of Americans who have been infected with the novel coronavirus is likely 10 times higher than the 2.3 million confirmed cases, according to the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    “Our best estimate right now is that for every case that’s reported, there actually are 10 other infections,” CDC Director Robert Redfield said Thursday on a call with reporters.

    Using that methodology pushes the tally of U.S. cases to at least 23 million. Redfield said the larger estimate is based on blood samples collected from across the country that look for the presence of antibodies to the virus. For every confirmed case of covid-19, 10 more people had antibodies, he said.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/

  16. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Rob Harris and Zoe Samios report on how Ita Buttrose has lashed out at Paul Fletcher over the Morrison government’s handling of its multimillion-dollar budget cuts and accused him of lying about the national broadcaster’s efforts to collaborate with SBS.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ita-buttrose-lashes-government-over-handling-of-abc-funding-cuts-20200625-p5569n.html
    Meanwhile Morrison, as usual, is playing with words and numbers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/there-are-no-cuts-scott-morrison-rejects-criticism-of-abc-funding-levels-20200625-p5561r.html
    The ABC’s emergency broadcasting division is set to be broken up and roles returned to local radio teams under the restructure of the national broadcaster announced on Monday.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6807024/abc-emergency-broadcasting-team-to-be-restructured-as-part-of-funding-cuts/?cs=14225#gsc.tab=0
    Jenna Price is amazed and appalled by this particular decision to break up the emergency broadcasting division.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6806732/of-all-the-baffling-decisions-at-the-abc-this-one-makes-my-head-explode/?cs=14258#gsc.tab=0
    The ones who should be fighting the hardest to save the ABC are those whose jobs depend on it and the unions supposedly protecting them, writes Martin Hirst.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/staff-and-unions-need-to-take-up-the-fight-for-the-abc,14034
    Quentin Dempster says the ABC’s five-year plan is spin for managed decline.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/06/25/quentin-dempster-ita-buttrose-abc/
    On the subject of a hard economic recovery landing, the SMH editorial says, “A rise in the unemployment rate by a few percentage points can be an abstract concept but news that Qantas, one of Australia’s best known companies, is sacking 6000 staff – 20 per cent of its workforce – should make brutally clear just how badly the pandemic is hitting the economy.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/qantas-job-cuts-show-danger-of-an-economic-hard-landing-20200625-p5567k.html
    Wesfarmers CEO Rob Scott has called for more pump priming to help support the retail sector amid growing fears sales will fall off a cliff after September.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/wesfarmers-chief-calls-for-more-stimulus-20200625-p555yj
    Rather than worry about Australia’s relatively low-level debt, the Morrison government should be like BHP and borrow more to fund productivity-boosting services urges Richard Denniss.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/leverage-lazy-public-balance-sheet-20200625-p555xu
    The politics of disentangling JobKeeper will be treacherous enough without re-engaging in the culture wars by doubling arts degree fees writes Phil Coorey. He says the challenge for the nation as it emerges from coronavirus is whether that newfound respect for science can be maintained.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/science-boost-is-smart-but-don-t-settle-scores-20200624-p555vh
    A colleague of Kate McClymont and Jacqui Maley, Natassia Chrysanthos, explains how their investigation into Dyson Heydon unfolded. An interesting read.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-stakes-are-so-high-inside-the-two-year-heydon-investigation-20200625-p55666.html
    Australia’s former governor-general Dame Quentin Bryce has said reports of Dyson Heydon’s alleged behaviour were disturbing and sexual harassment had lasting consequences for young women.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/quentin-bryce-praises-strength-and-courage-of-heydon-s-alleged-victims-20200625-p55673.html
    The Australian reveals that a NSW Supreme Court judge was told Dyson Heydon made unwanted advances towards one of its young female employees two years ago but did not take action.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/court-short-judges-failed-to-act-on-complaint-against-dyson-heydon/news-story/f8d71ffa2588a844287c87c78dd38736
    The AFR takes us inside the strange world of ex-judge Dyson Heydon.
    https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/inside-the-strange-world-of-ex-judge-dyson-heydon-20200625-p55602
    Christopher Knaus reports that the Coalition has so far spent $2m prosecuting lawyer Bernard Collaery and former intelligence officer Witness K, an amount described as “extraordinary and outrageous” for a case that is yet to even reach trial.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/25/coalition-spends-2m-on-prosecution-of-bernard-collaery-and-witness-k-even-before-trial
    Australia’s Reserve Bank has endorsed a warning from 66 central banks that unless international climate policies are ramped up, the economy will take a dramatic hit.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/global-gdp-to-fall-25-per-cent-without-more-climate-action-banks-warn-20200625-p5563t.html
    According to Shane Wright and Jennifer Duke the coronavirus recession will cost the Australian economy at least $170 billion and weigh on the nation for years, with warnings low-skilled women were already being left behind before the country was shut down to stop the pandemic’s spread.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/covid-19-to-cost-australia-170-billion-and-women-will-bear-the-brunt-20200625-p5561f.html
    A return to a strong post-pandemic economy will require our governments to rethink their political agendas, writes Professor John Quiggin.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/first-step-to-economic-recovery-is-a-change-in-political-thinking,14036
    A fleet of mobile testing vans will be deployed in a massive suburban blitz to contain a rising infection rate that has placed Victoria on a “knife’s edge”. Victoria will ramp up virus testing to 25,000 a day, with the aim of reaching around half of residents in Melbourne’s ten virus hotspots.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/06/26/coronavirus-victoria-testing-blitz/
    But the blitz won’t be able to catch them all.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/06/26/false-negatives-coronavirus/
    Dana McCauley tells us that the Australian Medical Association President Tony Bartone has seized on Victoria’s breach of hotel quarantine infection control and its escalating COVID-19 outbreak as evidence of the need for an independent centre for disease control.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/melbourne-quarantine-breach-sparks-calls-for-independent-medical-body-20200625-p55664.html
    Katie Burgess says that, in the wake of a scathing report from the ANAO, a former Environment Department official says the regulator’s failures to administer Australia’s key piece of environmental protection legislation efficiently or effectively stem from years of budget cuts.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6806918/environmental-regulators-failures-linked-to-budget-cuts-former-official/?cs=14350#gsc.tab=0
    The government has failed in its duty to protect the environment in its delivery of Australia’s national conservation laws, a scathing review by the national auditor general has found. Lisa Cox explains what’s in it.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/25/morrison-government-has-failed-in-its-duty-to-protect-environment-auditor-general-finds
    Michelle Grattan says Morrison is undeterred on COVID re-opening despite the rise in the toilet paper index.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-scott-morrison-undeterred-on-covid-re-opening-despite-rise-in-toilet-paper-index-141456
    Victorian Planning Minister Richard Wynne allowed a controversial rezoning process to proceed against the repeated advice of his own department, including a warning about the involvement of allegedly corrupt planning consultant John Woodman. This is not a good look!
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/planning-minister-repeatedly-warned-over-casey-rezoning-20200625-p55677.html
    MP Katie Allen gets behind the government’s direction on changing the fee structure for university courses.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/university-fee-changes-prepare-us-for-post-covid-opportunities-20200625-p55611.html
    Stephen Mayne now says that Qantas boss Alan Joyce is ruthless, and effective.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/06/26/qantas-boss-alan-joyce/
    Emails falsely claiming Labor candidate for Eden-Monaro Kristy McBain has pulled out of the race and voters must vote for Liberal Fiona Kotvojs have been referred to a taskforce that includes the Australian Federal Police. Charming!
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6807229/afp-called-in-over-fake-kristy-mcbain-emails/?cs=14225#gsc.tab=0
    In London George Brandis has sharply rebuked China for exploiting the pandemic to undermine democracies through disinformation campaigns and relying on questionable data to falsely claim that its totalitarian model is better equipped to combat the coronavirus emergency.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/george-brandis-delivers-sharp-rebuke-to-china-for-exploiting-pandemic-to-undermine-democracies-20200625-p556bf.html
    Charlotte Grieve explains how HESTA, the super fund for healthcare workers, has tightened its climate change policy and started divesting from thermal coal companies and committing to zero investment on the sector by 2050.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/super-giant-hesta-divests-coal-commits-to-net-zero-investments-by-2050-20200625-p5562o.html
    Energy analyst Simon Nicholas explains how NSW’s bullish coal export plan defies the global market realities.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/nsw-s-bullish-coal-export-plan-defies-the-global-market-realities-20200625-p5563i.html
    With interest rates at historic lows, investing to generate enough income to fund a comfortable retirement has become a major challenge for many retirees. No longer can you park your cash in a fixed-interest term deposit and sit back and enjoy the ride, writes Stephen Miles.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/risk-vs-reward-dilemma-for-retirees-in-low-interest-world-20200625-p5564x.html
    Zoe Samios reports that Google has bowed to global pressure from regulators and lawmakers and agreed to pay some publishers for news content in a major strategic shift by the search advertising giant.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/google-to-pay-publishers-under-new-licensing-deal-20200625-p55694.html
    The Guardian says that Beijing’s involvement in media overseas is growing almost faster than it can be tracked – the ultimate aim is both ideological and geopolitical.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/jun/25/china-is-reshaping-the-global-news-landscape-and-weakening-the-fourth-estate
    The Washington Post says that Trumps fixer, William Barr, is eroding the independence of the US Department of Justice.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/the-president-s-fixer-barr-is-eroding-doj-independence-analysts-say-20200625-p55689.html
    Nearly 1.1 million coronavirus relief payments totalling some $US1.4 billion ($2 billion) went to dead people in the US, a government watchdog has reported.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/us-sent-1-1-million-coronavirus-relief-payments-to-dead-people-20200626-p556c3.html
    It looks like they have lost the plot in the UK too as beaches were crowded yesterday.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/absolutely-appalled-major-incident-declared-as-thousands-cram-onto-english-beaches-20200626-p556bz.html
    The collapse of Wirecard, once one of the hottest fintech companies in Europe, has been labelled an “elaborate and sophisticated fraud” by its auditor EY. These guys romp it in for today’s nomination for “Arseholes of the Week”.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/the-money-s-gone-wirecard-collapses-owing-5-8-billion-20200626-p556c6.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    David Pope

    Cathy Wilcox

    Jim Pavlidis

    Simon Letch

    John Shakespeare

    Andrew Dyson

    Matt Golding





    Mark David



    Alan Moir


    Johannes Leak

    From the US













  17. Anyone wondering what Norman Swan’s likely political orientation might be should have a listen to his interview with Terri Butler this morning.

  18. It’s a conundrum. Will people pay out Scott Morrison for being mean and tricky with the ABC, or will they give him their votes for giving them money for their Tradie family members?

  19. Things are looking up, apparently the ladies are going to play footah next year or the year after or something somewhere…dunno, but it’s yuge apparently….Mundo doesn’t get it.

  21. ‘Quentin Dempster says the ABC’s five-year plan is spin for managed decline.’

    5 to 8 years of coalition government to go (minimum)….we won’t recognise the ABC when this is over…

  22. Peter Ryan
    @Peter_F_Ryan
    ·
    6m
    #BREAKING – Cyrus Capital Partners withdraws bid for Virgin Australia, citing lack of engagement from administrators
    @abcnews

    @VirginAustralia

  23. ‘Meanwhile Morrison, as usual, is playing with words and numbers.’

    Shocking! Mundo is shocked!!!

    Shocked I tells ya!!!

  25. Mundo just switched RN off before hearing a single word uttered by Chrissy Pyne whose flooging his memoir.

    Already the day seems brighter!
    The possibilities endless.

  28. Good on Labor for making the ABC cuts an issue in the by-election.

    Kristy McBain@KristyMcBain
    ·
    12h
    BREAKING: The ABC is planning to cut the national head of emergency broadcasting. ABC emergency broadcasts saved lives during our summer bushfires. This is a direct result of the Liberal Government’s $83.7 million funding cut to our ABC.

  29. Another CFA chief officer bites the dust. 40 years firefighting experience gone, all because Andrews cannot say No to Marshall and the UFU.
    Waste of time appointing a replacement.

  32. Taylormade @ #2129 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 8:26 am

    Another CFA chief officer bites the dust. 40 years firefighting experience gone, all because Andrews cannot say No to Marshall and the UFU.
    Waste of time appointing a replacement.

    They should say, ‘Yes’, to the Liberal Party, who don’t mind populating the CFA with unpaid volunteers in the exurbs that are not as professionally-trained, instead, shouldn’t they?

  35. Although I can’t wait to get my hands on Pyne’s new book “The Insider” I’ll wait a month or so when it’ll be reduced to around $5.

  38. lizzie

    I won’t be either. If they cannot get ‘ferocious’ over the government causing people to die with its Robodebt then I can’t see this getting them animated.

  39. I’ve just realised that a woman I follow on Facebook is Elon Musk’s mother! Her surname is Musk but I never once thought they two were related.

  40. Taylormade @ #2129 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 6:26 am

    Another CFA chief officer bites the dust. 40 years firefighting experience gone, all because Andrews cannot say No to Marshall and the UFU.
    Waste of time appointing a replacement.

    Look if he isn’t up to the job, time to go.

    The bushfire culture wars some of you idiot Victorians have going, is laughably stupid.

  42. Poroti, you could put 240 volts through the ALP right now and they wouldn’t twitch. If they are playing a long game I can’t see it.

  43. Some more gratuitous advice for the ALP so enjoyed by the bludgers

    Partisanship was never the problem. Labor needs to learn to lead
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/partisanship-was-never-the-problem-labor-needs-to-learn-to-lead-10909/

    “This week, Anthony Albanese announced a new era of “bipartisanship” with the Liberal party on climate change. A multi-pronged deal accepts a role for repeatedly failed carbon capture and storage technology, but builds walls around clean energy agencies that might be altered to fund fossil fuels by the government.

    In my view, there was already bipartisanship on climate change, in that both parties were committed to not doing enough as slowly as possible. Labor has nervously avoided setting a short-term climate target pre-empting a furious, rage-driven News Corp / government campaign labelling their plan with gargantuan economic costs, as former Labor leader Bill Shorten saw last year. How will the party navigate this when the next federal election rolls around?

    “Bipartisanship” simply means a widespread commitment to letting incredible harm to human life go ahead without limitations. The word appeals to centrist thinking on climate policy due to a severe misdiagnosis of the problem: close friendships and large donations between the fossil fuel industry and both major parties results in weak policy action. The chart below? That’s bipartisan. Really, really bipartisan.”

  44. Confessions @ #2128 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 8:23 am

    Good on Labor for making the ABC cuts an issue in the by-election.

    Kristy McBain@KristyMcBain
    ·
    12h
    BREAKING: The ABC is planning to cut the national head of emergency broadcasting. ABC emergency broadcasts saved lives during our summer bushfires. This is a direct result of the Liberal Government’s $83.7 million funding cut to our ABC.

    Yeah, the ALP aren’t even twitching with 240 volts put through them, eh?

    Maybe some people’s brains need 240 volts put through them so they can wake up!?!

  47. Barry Tucker
    @btckr
    ·
    12m
    Well waddyerknow! John Howard’s “efficiency dividend” (a budget cut) for the ABC is now Paul Fletcher’s (comms minister) “indexation freeze” (a budget cut). Even Humpty Dumpty couldn’t improve on that gobbledygook.

    We must give Karvelas kudos for her attacks on Fletcher yesterday arvo. She was not at all “tactful”. Nor was Tony Burke in his presser.

    I’m wondering whether Albo has ordered “quiet resistance” as his preferred method.

  48. I’m currently reading one of Ann Cleeves (Vera – Shetland) books dealing with the obligatory murder and with a cast of characters who are “twitchers” and “ringers”.

    Puffin

    Thanks BK for an interesting Dawn Patrol.

    Over and out for me.

  49. lizzie @ #2147 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 9:03 am

    Barry Tucker
    @btckr
    ·
    12m
    Well waddyerknow! John Howard’s “efficiency dividend” (a budget cut) for the ABC is now Paul Fletcher’s (comms minister) “indexation freeze” (a budget cut). Even Humpty Dumpty couldn’t improve on that gobbledygook.

    We must give Karvelas kudos for her attacks on Fletcher yesterday arvo. She was not at all “tactful”. Nor was Tony Burke in his presser.

    I’m wondering whether Albo has ordered “quiet resistance” as his preferred method.

    ‘“quiet resistance”
    Mundo might not stop laughing ’til lunchtime…

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