Courtesy of The Australian, the latest Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead down to 52-48 from 53-47 three weeks ago, from primary votes of Coalition 43% (down one), Labor 33% (doen one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 4% (steady). Scott Morrison is steady at 68% approval and up two on disapproval to 29%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively steady at 41% and down two to 38%. Morrison’s lead as prime minister has nonetheless widened very slightly, from 59-26 to 60-25. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1509.
A fascinating read into the thinking of evangelicals when it comes to Trump.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/09/us/evangelicals-trump-christianity.html
And here’s a view of Mike Pence I’m not sure he’d approve of.
Socrates
I agree. I’m a long time subscriber to The Age but becoming increasingly disillusioned by its direction.
Didn’t the ACTU do something similar in the 1970s regarding petrol and set up or had a stake in SOLO petrol stations?
lizzie @ #149 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 8:52 am
….and the opposition Labor party’s inability to come up with a strategy to counter it.
Interesting discussion last night around ALP leadership.
Thinking about truly successful Labor leadership at the Federal level and in the larger states (NSW, Vic, Queensland), there seem to me to be two types of leader that can cut it with the voters (with one major exception, which I’ll come to shortly).
1) Someone whose charisma and substance allows them to somehow stand above and beyond the factional system, and even above party politics as a whole – a quality I term “supra-political”: think Gough Whitlam, Bob Hawke, Kevin Rudd, John Cain and Steve Bracks.
2) A right-wing machine politician who has a bit of charisma and comes across as being very capable: think Paul Keating (as Treasurer and for one election as PM), Neville Wran, Peter Beattie and Bob Carr.
What doesn’t seem to work tremendously well (outside of small states like Tassie) are leaders drawn from the Left faction: with the single striking exception of Dan Andrews, who is perhaps one of many illustrations that Victoria is gradually turning into Australia’s equivalent to one of those deep blue states in the US such as California, New York or (perhaps the best comparison) Massachusetts. I don’t believe that a politician as unashamedly left-leaning as Andrews could ever make it at a national level unless and until there is a substantial change in political demographics: especially in Sydney (which seems to be gradually drifting rightward) and Queensland. That’s why Tanya Plib is a non-starter IMO (as well as because she tends to waffle).
If we think about other recent leading Labor figures, we can see that they lacked both of the two qualities I have outlined: Gillard was a product of the Left faction who was seen by them as a sell-out and so, with the help of the likes of Joel Fitzgibbon and a sulking Kevin Rudd (who held a seat that her Government could not afford to lose in a by-election), they eventually knifed her. And, while she was certainly very smart and quite charismatic, she wasn’t always the best marketer of her message (think “moving forward”, the “real Julia” and “call it a carbon tax if you like”).
Shorten was a machine Right man with little charisma (but he still got pretty close). Albo is very much a product of the Left and very much a lifelong machine man, although he’s done a terrific job at projecting an appealing “ordinary bloke” persona that helps to disguise his background.
So who does Labor go for? Right now, the party lacks anybody with the supra-factional intellect or charisma of a Julia Gillard, let alone a Hawke. It’s factional warriors left, right and centre (well, not centre so much nowadays). Wong is perhaps an exception, but she’d cop a lot of grief from the far right of Australian politics, and to get there she’d have to do the same sort of deals that Gillard did, and her own faction would probably similarly end up seeing her as a sell-out and bringing her down.
So that’s why I keep bringing up Ed Husic and Clare O’Neil, both firmly from the Right side of the ALP. Husic might be very much on the outer right now, but he’s smart, funny and (not that I’m much of a judge of human height on TV, or of male looks) seems to be a bit taller and more handsome than some of the rather pip-squeaky male political leaders we get at the Federal level nowadays. He’s a Muslim Labor politician but he was openly pro-SSM and his best mate in Canberra is a Jewish guy on the other side: giving him a little bit of supra-political credibility. I think Husic would make a good leader, or an effective deputy to O’Neil.
O’Neil is equally promising IMO. She’s smart, speaks well, is socially progressive but not of the Left faction, and – it shouldn’t be important, but it is, particularly for women – not unattractive.
I know many on PB won’t agree with this sort of assessment, but I think I do have the ability to bring to this discussion the perspective of someone who isn’t rusted-on Labor.
“Axios reported Sunday that President Donald Trump is so nervous about the three upcoming presidential debates that he quit his weekend vacation golfing short so he could meet with aides at his Bedminister resort to discuss it”.
***
As far as I can see the debates offer opportunities for Trump to go after Biden, which you know is exactly what he wants to do. Biden is a terrible debater and is prone to serious gaffes. Trump is the one who needs to grab the spotlight and turn it on Biden to distract from his mishandling of COVID and everything else. The debates offer him a chance to do that. Biden needs to be ready for an ambush.
It truly is a sorry state of affairs when these two are what a country of hundreds of millions is left with as alternatives to lead them. No wonder America is such a mess and is on track to remain a far-right rogue state in decline, regardless of which party of the establishment is in government. Most of their population has been brainwashed by the mainstream media into accepting the right wing status quo.
Hi Lizzie,
Any update on the tabby cat this morning?
lizzie @ #151 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 6:52 am
That is a major problem and reflective of how binary politics has become.
Too often Nuremberg is dragged out by supporters and that somehow makes it right, instead of having the the debate around should this be allowed or not in the first place.
Gee a federal ICAC with teeth would be nice.
Grant
Hello. No sightings, but I don’t go outside much. When I let the dogs out into their fenced garden they rushed immediately to one part of the fence so it’s possible they smelt something.
Mundo@8.21,
Do you have to? My BP went through the roof on reading that!!
Seriously though, as a dual citizen I can’t leave the country without Spud’s permission which is ridiculous if I‘m paying for quarantine and the other country accepts me. If a family member is dying , the chance of getting approval in time is ultra thin. I have always travelled on a NZ passport , not only because it is perfectly legal but also NZ is less likely to upset the horses. (I used to get hassled by customs but they eventually gave up – but I have no doubt that will be held against me.)
I just count myself lucky that my 99 yr old mother passed away in February , avoiding the closed borders.
“Gee a federal ICAC with teeth would be nice.”
***
Pity Labor teamed up with the Coalition to prevent the Greens from establishing one. Bob Brown introduced legislation to setup a federal ICAC all the way back in 2010. Imagine what a different decade it could have been.
Biden is a terrible debater and is prone to serious gaffes.
This frame is a total falsity and is merely a meme that has been propagated by Russia, the Republican Party and Trump. You only have to listen to Biden eulogies for Members of Congress to know how eloquent a speaker he is, or remember that he won the Vice Presidential debates against Sarah Palin ( a wily demagogue, if a ditz) and Paul Ryan. Plus, you might also want to watch this recent video to educate yourself:
https://youtu.be/nGrB-5ieeMU
Libs splitting over Andrew’s tactics.
You can accuse me of prejudice against the well-heeled, but really!!
Rumour is Andrew Abercrombie and Co broke lockdown by helicoptering to Mount Buller.
Liberal powerbroker. Hosted $10,000 a head fund raiser for Scotty last year. Reported wealth over $500M. Spread virus at Noosa after a birthday party at Sails restaurant then returned to Portsea. As reported in The Age.
<blockquote
Thanks BK
That Shaun Carney article about Morrison Gov’t back grounding (whiteanting) against Andrews shows how easily the MSM lets Morrison off the hook.
The Constitution gives the Commowealth the right to legislate for, and manage, quarantine for a good reason. When they signed over powers at federation, the states expected the Feds to run it. They used to run quarantine stations on isolated Commonwealth land.
The fact the Morrison Gov’t had to bring in the military shows how unprepared they are to handle their own responsibilities.
Dutton stating his Border Force doesn’t have the staff or organisation to handle quarantine does not excuse him of responsibility.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/welcome-to-victoria-the-state-of-complaint-20200807-p55jiu.html
322 Cases of Covid in Vic, 19 deaths.
lizzie:
That story reminds me of when coronavirus first got traction in Australia and there were reports of enclaves of infection in very wealthy suburbs in Sydney. Courtesy of rich people travelling without care and returning with the virus.
Firefox @ #161 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 7:12 am
Was he proposing a model or a mechanism for the creation of one?
Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.
Raining in Newcastle. Currently 13℃ – feels like 10℃
Wind S 45 km/h
Localised flooding is possible.
Fess
An example of trickledown. The wealthy bring the virus home to Australia and it trickles down to the rest of us.
lizzie @ #171 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 7:36 am
Shame their money didn’t do the same as quickly.
Maude Lynne @ #163 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 9:26 am
‘Andrews shows how easily the MSM Morrison gets off the hook.’
It also demonstrates how little fight there is left in Labor.
Snap Lizzie,
Looks like the Covid new case numbers have peaked here in Vic and are falling.
This is the result of face masks (Stage 4s influence will be at least a week to 10 days away).
A stark reminder that new case numbers globally are still on the up and up every single day.
I think we would be well advised to remind everyone of that fact.
Now that the virus numbers may (repeat may) have stabilised, the media are concentrating on the deaths (which are bound to rise in line with those past infection records) but they make it the news of the day.
Polls, polls, polls. In the three years leading up to the last election Labor was in front in 30 polls so Abbot gets flicked for Turnbull. LNP loses the next 30 polls so Turnbull gets flicked for Morrison. Morrison behind in every poll leading up to the election and LNP gets up on the day. My conclusion to that is that polls aren’t worth a pinch of shit. There’s still a long way to go.
lizzie @ #175 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 7:42 am
Yep, and it’s a story they could have safely written 7-10 days ago and gone on holidays.
Lizzie
Yes the death rate sadly is increasing which is not unexpected given the focus on aged care at present but should hopefully decrease but not for several days in line with the downward number of cases.
Interestingly DHHS released the numbers today via Twitter well in advance of the Premier’s daily presser.
I’m wondering if they are trying to better manage the narrative wrt to the media reporting etc
The Abercrombie family… they wouldn’t be connected to the Aspen couple by chance?
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #169 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 9:30 am
You can’t legislate from the Senate. It was always a Greens stunt that would’ve died in the House of Reps. Labor knew this. Why be on the side of embarrassing failure?
So the Libs are stepping up their attacks on Victoria. Of course.
Alpha Zero @ #167 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 9:27 am
That’s a significant step down.
lizzie @ #179 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 9:50 am
Of course. It’s how they roll. Cynical, duplicitous political operatives.
I know I’ll regret asking this question, Mundo, but….
How does it do that?
This video ad against fossil fuel burning is from UK.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1292557397576183809
“This frame is a total falsity and is merely a meme that has been propagated by Russia, the Republican Party and Trump. ”
***
Ok, keep blaming Russia and Trump for everything. That’s your story and you’re sticking to it, right? Never-mind that Biden has been putting his foot in his mouth for decades, long before Trump turned up on the political stage or before Clinton decided to blame her own failures on Russia. I have watched Biden live plenty of times over the years, I don’t need to be “educated” by the mainstream media, thanks. Whether you want to admit it or not, the debates are a dangerous time for Biden.
Grant
One of the same.
C@tmomma @ #179 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 7:49 am
Not exactly.
If he was proposing a model then you are right about it being a useless stunt, but if he was proposing a mechanism to create one, which would allow all the Parliament and those outside as well, to participate in, then I don’t see that as a stunt and is something that I think should be supported.
“You can’t legislate from the Senate. It was always a Greens stunt that would’ve died in the House of Reps. Labor knew this. Why be on the side of embarrassing failure?”
***
Private senators’ and members’ bills
The right to propose legislation is not restricted to the government of the day. Any senator or member of the House of Representatives may introduce a bill and, in the Senate, a private senator’s bill is dealt with in exactly the same way as a government bill. While comparatively few private senators’ and members’ bills are agreed to by both houses, some significant proposals have become law as a result of private senators’ and members’ initiatives. Compulsory voting at federal elections was introduced as a result of Senator Payne’s Electoral (Compulsory Voting) Act 1924. The banning of tobacco advertising in the print media was achieved through Senator Powell’s Smoking and Tobacco Products Advertisements (Prohibition) Act 1989. The most recent private bill to become law was the Marriage Amendment (Definition and Religious Freedoms) Act 2017 which introduced marriage equality by redefining marriage as ‘a union of two people’.
From the Parliament’s perspective, the most significant piece of legislation sponsored by a private senator or member was the Parliamentary Privileges Act 1987, which was introduced by the President of the Senate and which codified the Parliament’s legal immunities and its powers to protect the integrity of its processes.
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Senate/Powers_practice_n_procedures/Senate_Briefs/Brief08
““You can’t legislate from the Senate. It was always a Greens stunt that would’ve died in the House of Reps. Labor knew this. Why be on the side of embarrassing failure?”
***
Furthermore, the Bandt/Gillard/Ind gov had the numbers in the House to pass it. Make no mistake, Labor stuffed up big time and deliberately missed a huge opportunity to crack down on corruption.
Firefox @ #188 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 7:59 am
But an ICAC would require funding, so legislation of this type could not validly be raised in the Senate.
The right to propose legislation is not restricted to the government of the day.
Key word, ‘propose’. Doesn’t mean it will be a sucess in the House of Representatives, where the government has the numbers. And The Greens have a grand total of 1 MP, who, even if Labor voted with that 1 MP, still wouldn’t equal enough numbers to get the Bill passed. Not to mention the Conservative Independents in the HoR would likely not vote for it either. Ergo, a Greens stunt.
Good point as well, BiTB.
If he was proposing a model then you are right about it being a useless stunt, but if he was proposing a mechanism to create one, which would allow all the Parliament and those outside as well, to participate in, then I don’t see that as a stunt and is something that I think should be supported.
Labor have already supported a FICAC and took it to the last election.
Remeikis:
Why would anyone take what Morrison says at face value?
Firefox
Getting a bill like that through both houses requires hours of complex negotiations. Moving the motion, and voting, is the final step.
How much negotiation did Brown do? Did he believe he had the numbers? Or was it a an act of desperation because he failed to convince sufficient people to stand with him?
“Key word, ‘propose’. Doesn’t mean it will be a sucess in the House of Representatives, where the government has the numbers. And The Greens have a grand total of 1 MP, who, even if Labor voted with that 1 MP, still wouldn’t equal enough numbers to get the Bill passed. Not to mention the Conservative Independents in the HoR would likely not vote for it either. Ergo, a Greens stunt.”
***
Here is Tony Windsor speaking strongly in favour of an ICAC: https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=1065684383522915&ref=watch_permalink
And here’s Oakeshott having a crack at the Nats over not supporting a federal ICAC: https://twitter.com/roboakeshott1/status/1055669311656718337?lang=en
It was a huge chance of passing both houses had Labor supported it.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #190 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 10:03 am
Could operate on a volunteer basis. Or seek donations from the public. I’d help fund it. 🙂
Lizzie
Surely Amy Reimikis is not buying into that crapola from Morrison.
victoria
I think she’d say she was just reporting.