Queensland election plus one day

Determining the exact size of Annastacia Palaszczuk’s slightly increased majority.

Click here for full Queensland election results updated live.

The bugs in my election results facility are largely dealt with now, some niggles notwithstanding – here you will find booth results in a far more manageable form than offered by the ECQ, and the only swing data at booth level available anywhere. This will updated live throughout the final stages of the count, although the ECQ’s move to the separately published “official” count either today or tomorrow will need to be finessed. If you find any value in this labour-intensive effort, gestures of appreciation in the form of donations are gratefully received through the “Become a Supporter” button at the top of the page.

My results system is giving Labor 50 out of the 52 seats in which they currently lead the two-party count, and the LNP 29 of their 34, with the Greens to win two barring late-count surprises at Labor’s expense in McConnel and Cooper, and the cross-bench otherwise being a status quo of three Katter’s Australian Party, one One Nation and one independent. In the few cases where my system disagrees, I suspect it is because the ABC is projecting the two-party result in large pre-poll centres that have so far reported only the primary vote. A large pre-poll booth in Hervey Bay is one such, while another pre-poll booth in the seat hasn’t reported at all. Hervey Bay also hasn’t reported any postals yet, which went around 63-37 to the LNP in 2017 compared with 59-41 in the electorate at large. Even so, even the ABC projection has Labor’s lead at 3.2% compared with a raw 4.9%, so they would have to be rated the strong favourite.

My system and the ABC’s are agreed that the LNP is not yet home and dry in Burleigh, Chatsworth, Coomera and Currumbin, but my fifth LNP in-doubt seat is Clayfield and the ABC’s is Glass House, which mine is giving away just barely. I would think it likely that the LNP will get home in all of them. I presume the ABC’s call of Clayfield relates to it projecting a two-party result from the Clayfield Early Voting Centre, which as yet has only reported on the primary vote and accounts for more than a quarter of the current primary vote total. Labor will need to achieve something special in Glass House out of the Woodford Early Voting Centre, which hasn’t reported on either the primary or two-party count. I also wouldn’t be too amazed if Labor’s leads in LNP-held Bundaberg and Nicklin failed to survive the late count, and their existing total of 50 proves their final score, one up on the result from 2017.

I’ll offer a more in-depth analysis of the situation tomorrow, together with ongoing commentary on the late count.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

290 comments on “Queensland election plus one day”

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  1. Peter T says:
    Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 9:14 pm

    The Greens-Labor spats obscure the real issue: that climate change and a range of other environmental challenges are THE problem for the next 50 years at least.

    The dysfunction that besets centre-left politics – that is, Green/Labor conflict – means that nothing will be done to resolve “the real issues” at all. Nothing. The country is fucked because of the dysfunction. Get used to it.

  2. Anyone on the ground know what the heck happened with Andrew Barlett in Clayfield, by the way? Seems like he seriously underperformed for such a high profile candidate.

    His campaign was always going to struggle given that he was drafted into the role four weeks before the election, to replace the pre-selected candidate who was dumped by the Greens for demanding more resources in a manner that the Greens interpreted as threatening.

  3. Shut up, Briefly.

    Asha: Bartlett did about as well as could be expected given the circumstances (dropped in a month before the election). His brief would’ve been: be a safe pair of hands, and don’t screw things up even worse than they already have been. Any dreams they might’ve had of winning the seat went up the chimney when they lost their original candidate. If Bartlett had been in from the start, there’d’ve been more expectations on him.

  4. Looking through the latest updates on ABC, one thing I’ve noticed is that while not many seats changed hands, the uneven swing means that a lot of previously marginal Labor seats are now looking pretty damn safe. Barron River’s now 55-45, Aspley’s 56-54, Gaven’s 58-42, Maryborough’s gone from 52-48 to a whopping 63-37! The LNP will need some serious swings to have a hope of getting into government next time. Margins don’t mean much in a landslide, of course – when the swing is on, it’s on – but if things are looking close again come 2024, the smart money would be on another Labor victory.

  6. Nicholas / Bird of Paradox:

    Ah, cheers, makes sense.

    Shame – a better Greens performance might have gotten us over the line there.

  7. A much better Greens performance might’ve got them the seat themselves. That’s one way to deal with Labor types who moan “all you ever do is steal Labor seats!”. Same goes for Moggill.

  8. Bird of paradox says:
    Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 9:25 pm

    Shut up, Briefly.

    Ok. Yeah….nah, just kidding.

    The day the Greens stop parading their conceits and their contempt is the day I will hit the mute button. Not one essential of my observations and arguments have ever been refuted by the Greens. Not one. My remarks are accurate. They have never been denied because they are true.

  9. Re Peter T @9:14.

    Unless the Coalition can change their spots on this, they are doomed in the longer run

    The Coalition represent the power and money elites. It will always exist in some form so long as democracy lasts. It may undergo temporary reversals as did the old UAP in the 1940s but it will be quickly rebuilt.

  10. Asha Leu ”Looking through the latest updates on ABC, one thing I’ve noticed is that while not many seats changed hands, the uneven swing means that a lot of previously marginal Labor seats are now looking pretty damn safe.”

    At a seat level, many swings seem to have been to the incumbent

  11. Bird of Paradox:

    Ha, I’d happily take that result if it meant Nicholls was kicked out on his arse.

    Would have required a helluva swing for the Greens to knock either Labor or LNP to third place, though. (Mind you, I thought the same thing about Cooper, and they came bloody close to taking that one.)

  12. “Non says:
    Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 9:17 pm
    ….The dysfunction that besets centre-left politics – that is, Green/Labor conflict – means that nothing will be done to resolve “the real issues” at all. Nothing. The country is fucked because of the dysfunction. Get used to it.”

    I am not sure what’s all that “dysfunction” about. ALP and Greens help each other with their preferences where the party that must be defeated, because they are in with a chance of winning a seat, are the Liberals/Nationals/LNP. But they compete in progressive seats where it’s either ALP or Greens who is going to win. That’s all pretty normal.

    Regarding their political program, the ALP are a party of government, they are centre-left and they must give priority to several issues at the same time: economy, social justice, the environment. The Greens are not a party of government and therefore they can specialise on a more narrow set of issues and treat each issue more ideologically than pragmatically. That can lead to some occasional disagreements between ALP and Greens, but that’s fine, we can all live with that.

    So, a lot can be done to solve the real issues, even though the solutions that are possible are not as ideal or speedy as some people would like. But as far as the progressive parties are concerned, their solutions to the real issues can only be enacted if the Coalition is defeated….

  13. Still lots of The Greens coulda, woulda, shoulda won more seats, here. Bo-ring.

    I’m with Alpo, too. The Greens should put aside their demands for Labor to do this or that before they will work with them and just try co-operating with them. Fiona Patten in Victoria is one politician they could learn a lot from. Though I don’t think the egos of The Greens will ever allow it.

  14. A lot of chatter here about the role of the Greens working with the Libs to take seat form the ALP. This is very true in the short term, but in the long term this will come back to bite them both, Firstly inner city seats like South Brisbane are changing. I remember an article in the paper about 30 years ago showing a rundown house which was the cheapest advertised in Brisbane, guess what suburb – West End. I remember reading a chart ranking electrets in order of income. Labor had few in the high income column, but what ones they did have were inner city ones like Melbourne, Sydney and Griffith (ones in which the Greens do well in). The Libs think they are clever helping the Greens, however the ALP have simple moved with their voters into other areas. Taking seats like Calandra, creating close contest which were once safe Liberals seats. The Libs have wedged themselves; Federally 5 of the six crossbenchers (even Melbourne) are all in a two candidate preferred contest with the Libs. But eventually as wealthier people move into the inner city the green wave will be replaced with a blue one.

  15. Alpo says:
    Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 9:59 pm

    I am not sure what’s all that “dysfunction” about.

    Perennial Green polemical and tactical hostility to Labor has contributed to the deep erosion in the pro-Labor plurality, down from the high 40’s in the 1980s to the high 30’s/low 40’s at present, when considering Federal voter allegiances.

    This is the dysfunction I’m talking about. It means Labor may never again succeed in a Federal election. Labor has won 4 times from opposition since 1918. Their plurality was considerably better in those times. Right now, Labor have almost no chance of winning. This is in part attributable to Green campaigning. This is an intentional result.

  16. Non

    I haven’t read what you have posited. But there remains also the possibility that its such nonsense that no-one wants to waste their time refuting it.

    I rarely respond on here these days. Because there is so much partisan mud slinging rather than good psephology that I can’t be bothered.

    But I hope you have made some worthy insights that others have benefited from. Rather than petty insites that waste people’s time.

  17. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 10:06 pm
    Still lots of The Greens coulda, woulda, shoulda won more seats, here. Bo-ring.

    I’m with Alpo, too. The Greens should put aside their demands for Labor to do this or that before they will work with them and just try co-operating with them. Fiona Patten in Victoria is one politician they could learn a lot from. Though I don’t think the egos of The Greens will ever allow it.

    This is not about egos. It is a consequence of the competitive/antagonistic nature of politics. Patten will fade away and her Party will follow. The Greens survive because they are antagonistic towards Labor. This is an existential necessity for them. The day the Greens start to collaborate with Labor is the day they will cease to have a reason to exist. This is a function of adversarial competition for power. It accentuates the divide. We are all fucked up because of it. The beneficiaries are the Reactionaries.

  18. disasterboy says:
    Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 10:23 pm
    Non

    I haven’t read what you have posited. But there remains also the possibility that its such nonsense that no-one wants to waste their time refuting it.

    There is always that possibility. Cheers.

  21. “They did steel a seat from Labor, with LNP Preferences.”

    The entitlement in this view is pretty dubious. Does Labor “own” seats. And, there is even a second level of entitlement, that Labor somehow also owns LNP preferences.

    In fact the Greens came first in South Brisbane on the primary vote.

    And the ALP had a swing against it on the primaries, completely at odds with the broader Brisbane trend.

    The people of South Brisbane wanted the Greens in, and Jackie Trad out, and that’s really what happened.

  22. Anyone throwing shade on the South Brisbane result needs to go stand in the corner. MacMahon was the preferential winner, the first-past-the-post winner and it is hard to dispute was the Condorcet winner as well. There’s no world in which she wasn’t the legitimate choice of the electors.

  23. Looks like the recriminations are starting:

    Queensland Liberal National party members have begun agitating for an urgent post-election state council meeting to bring to a head internecine conflicts between the party’s membership, its office bearers and its state leader.

    As counting continues in a number of close seats, the LNP’s numbers are likely to go backwards in the next parliament. In her concession speech on election night, Deb Frecklington said she intended to remain as the state leader.

    The coronavirus pandemic has been a defining issue of the campaign but party figures, including the former premier Campbell Newman, say the result also points to longstanding problems.

    “It’s time for the LNP to wake up and smell the coffee,” Newman told Sky News.

    Crown sits easy on the head of Annastacia Palaszczuk, three time-winner
    “The polling throughout the three years showed an LNP primary vote bouncing around between 35% and 37%. I happen to know that a track poll in June this campaign on those marginal seats … at one stage the primary vote was down at 32%.

    “It’s not about Covid-19. Yes, that’s obviously been very difficult for them. But that is going the be the excuse that they present to people, but that is self-delusional. It’s time to realise that they’ve got a problem.”

    The LNP’s election preparations were remarkable in that four months before polling day – based on the tracking poll Newman referred to – party backroom figures attempted to replace Frecklington as leader.

    Of greatest concern then was that polling showed she had failed to cut through against the popular premier, Annastacia Palaszczuk.

    Among the membership there is considerable anger directed towards certain party powerbrokers, including some with links to the mining magnate, Clive Palmer, who ran an expensive but ineffective anti-Labor spoiler campaign.

    Queensland election: Greens take at least two city seats – including Jackie Trad’s
    Palmer’s United Australia party spent more than $4m on advertising attacking Labor and won 0.6% of the statewide vote.

    Frecklington had previously relied heavily the backing of those powerbrokers. But since the attempted leadership coup, that relationship between the leader’s office and party head office has become strained. Sources say the disconnect hampered the campaign.

    The party also referred concerns about a series of private election fundraising events featuring Frecklington and attended by property developers – who are banned from making donations – to the electoral commission.

    Another factor causing concern is the increased factionalism within the merged party, and claims that candidate selection for the Queensland election was largely based on ideological preselection battles rather than electoral common sense.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/01/wake-up-and-smell-the-coffee-lnp-members-demand-urgent-talks-after-queensland-election-disaster

    I mean, he’s not wrong, but I do have to laugh at Campbell Newman bemoaning the LNP’s performance when he’s one of the main reasons they’re in this mess.

  24. This little tidbit from the same article just boggles the mind:

    Some candidate choices appear to have backfired. The seat of Maiwar – a previously marginal electorate held by the Greens – had previously been identified as a key target of the LNP campaign.

    The LNP’s candidate there, the former journalist Lauren Day, was backed by the Christian right and endorsed by anti-abortion campaigners. On election day LNP volunteers were spotted putting up anti-abortion signs.

    LMAO, what were they thinking? That’s even more tin-eared that the big, scary sign about Labor’s “crime crisis” that was put up at my booth in the midst of leafy, middle-class Mitchelton.

  25. On election day LNP volunteers were spotted putting up anti-abortion signs.

    There were letter box drops too. I may still have one lying about. One of them could only charitably be described as “rushed”. Maiwar is a professional’s electorate. Professionalism matters. The Green material captured that. Labor ran dead. In hindsight that crude material is laughable, but I don’t think anyone was laughing last week.

  26. Non,
    The way for the ALP to beat the greens is to outflank them on the left with CC.
    CC and how it plays out Australia, will all be about industry transition. The ALP can use the greens ‘throw em on the scrap pile’ and the Libs actual behavior to the car industry of examples as why it’s a safe pair of hands to lead energy and mining workers through the next decade.

    Fitzbigons is a knob, but he’s representing the concerns of his electorate. His failure, and Albo’s failure is two fold. 1, they should be telling them, that the ALP is the only saviour and 2, scaring them about everyone else.

    Just look how the nationals captured the farmers.

  28. south says:
    Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 11:59 pm
    Non,
    The way for the ALP to beat the greens is to outflank them on the left with CC.

    Sadly, this would lead to the utter destruction of the Labor PV. This is part of the tragedy of CC politics in this country. Labor has been on the losing end in 4 consecutive elections on this issue….2010, 13, 16 and 19.

  30. Early voting in Texas has been huge. Votes cast already exceed the total cast in 2016. Democrats have been encouraged to vote early in Texas and this suggests an upset is possible. Polling has been very close and may well understate Democratic support once again, as it did in 2018.


  34. Jacobin says:
    Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 10:09 pm
    ..
    . But eventually as wealthier people move into the inner city the green wave will be replaced with a blue one.

    You are assuming a static Liberal party. The Liberal party is not what it was. The religious right are fighting hard to take it over and winning. It is not a party for professionals.

  35. south
    90% of people don’t vote Green, your not going to win by adopting their policies, beside they can’t be implemented. Free has a limited utility.

    A reactionary party will always exist, this incarnation is particularly damaging because it pretends to be an environmental party and has done enormous damage to the environmental movement.

  36. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/01/biden-leads-trump-by-10-points-in-final-days-before-election-nbc-wsj-poll.html

    Six-in-10 voters said the country is on the wrong track under the president’s leadership and a majority disapproved of Trump’s handling of the pandemic, according to the current poll. A majority of voters, 51%, said there’s no chance they’d support Trump, while 40% said the same for Biden.

    The poll finds that a majority of voters, 52%, disapprove of Trump’s job performance, while 45% approve. 55% of voters approve of how the president has handled the economy. But 57% disapprove of the president’s handling of the pandemic, while just 40% approve.

    Biden’s key advantages are among Black voters (Biden has 87% to Trump’s 5%), voters ages 18-34 (60% to 32%), seniors (58% to 35%), women (57% to 37%), whites with college degrees (56% to 41%) and independents (51% to 36%).

    Trump takes the lead among white voters (51% to 45%) and whites without degrees (58% to 37%). He also takes a narrow 1-point lead among men (48% to 47%).

    The poll of 1,000 registered voters, more than half of whom were reached by phone, was taken on Oct. 29 -30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

    More than 92 million Americans have already cast their ballots in the days before the Nov. 3 election — representing 66.8% of the total voter turnout in the 2016 election — as the candidates make their last efforts to mobilize support in battleground states.

  37. caf says:
    Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 11:24 pm
    Anyone throwing shade on the South Brisbane result needs to go stand in the corner. MacMahon was the preferential winner, the first-past-the-post winner and it is hard to dispute was the Condorcet winner as well. There’s no world in which she wasn’t the legitimate choice of the electors.

    She will be right at home as the representative of the wealthy Labor-phobic cohorts in her electorate.

  39. The thing that amazes me is that affluent seats in Brisbane have not abandoned ALP. Bulimba where I grew up in the 60s/ 70s was an area for dock workers and wharfies with some wealthier people on the hilly bits. It was solidly Labor. In the meantime it’s got very wealthy with median house price over the million. It has stayed Labor though. I know that a Sydney based contributer mentioned Brisbane as poor by comparison to Syd but this is affluent by any measure. It may flip to greens or LNP in some future Labor loss but that it is in this column shows that politics is now different.Labor is a progressive centrist party that attracts affluent voters at least at state level greens increasingly as well. This is a challenge for the federal LNP because really their only strength is the good economic manager myth. With this Cv19 catastrophe we are seeing them borrow and run up debt like there’s no tomorrow just like the ALP allegedly does going back to the supposedly profligate EG Whitlam. Rudd could have cemented an advantage for ALP in this area back in 2008 if not for the ambitious JG, jealous Wayne Swann ( who never had Rudd’s X factor) and the dumb as F**k NSW right. Now they have a second chance and a clear talking Qlder Chalmers might just be able to get above the static and crazy,madcap, Murdoch inspired lunacy and skewer the LNP on this turf.If Labor can cancel out this advantage and the window of opportunity is there, all bets are off in future.

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