US election late counting

What will Biden’s final popular vote margin be, will he win Arizona and Georgia, and what will the final House result be? Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

1:00pm Wednesday Dave Wasserman’s current House count is 221 Democrats, 209 Republicans and five undecided. In four of the undecided races, Republicans lead, but there’s some hope for Democrats in New York’s 22nd. At the 2018 midterms, Democrats won the House by a 235-200 margin.

Biden now leads Trump in the popular vote by 50.9% to 47.2% with up to 1.8 million New York mail votes still to be counted. These will be very pro-Biden.

2:30pm Monday November 16 If anyone’s still following this thread, I’ve published a Conversation article about Biden’s narrow margin in the Electoral College tipping-point state (Wisconsin), and about explanations for why the polls understated Trump again. It’s plausible that coronavirus was a factor, because those who followed medical advice to stay home were more likely to respond to polls and be Democrats.

2:25pm In final Arizona results, Biden defeated Trump by 10,377 votes or 0.30%.

11:48am Sunday I posted yesterday about how Biden only won the “tipping-point” state by 0.6% despite his 306-232 Electoral College win, but it appears that post was lost with the site’s problems.

Democrats lead in the House by 218-203 with 14 seats uncalled. Eight of the uncalled races are in New York, where mail counting has been very slow. Mail votes will be very strong for Democrats, and they will win the three seats where they currently lead. Dave Wasserman thinks the Dem in New York’s 22nd has a real chance of overcoming the Rep’s lead once all mail is counted.

3:40pm Arizona CALLED for Biden after he won the latest batch of Maricopa county votes. He leads Trump by over 11,400 votes or 0.34%. That call takes Biden to a 290-217 Electoral College lead. The final two states, Georgia and North Carolina, will go to Biden and Trump respectively. Biden will win the Electoral College by 306-232.

3:00pm Friday In the past, late counting in states such as California and Arizona has been better for Democrats than election night results. The early mail has been pro-Republican, but the late mail has been better for Democrats. This election, it’s clear that Democrats were much keener to vote early, and so the normal pattern has been reversed. That’s why Fox News and the AP called Arizona prematurely.

There’s now a big scare for Democrats in New Jersey’s seventh district. The Republican is within 6,300 votes with almost 39,000 remaining. The Rep has been winning late counted votes by big enough margins to put the Dem in jeopardy. Dems will still retain a narrow House majority, but it’s way below expectations.

2:30pm Trump won a batch of 13,000 Maricopa county, Arizona votes by 9%, but there just aren’t enough votes left for him to overcome his current 11,600+ vote deficit in Arizona. Dave Wasserman has called it for Biden.

11:30am Thursday Both the Alaska and North Carolina Senate races were CALLED for Republicans today, taking them to a 50-48 lead with two Georgia runoffs on January 5. Alaska was also called for Trump, with North Carolina to follow soon.

5:00pm Biden currently leads in the national popular vote by over five million votes (50.8% to 47.4%).

4:57pm Democrats are just over the majority mark in the House, and lead Republicans by 218-201 with 16 still uncalled. Dave Wasserman sees it as 222 Democrats, 206 Republicans and seven undecided. Democrats are currently trailing in all seven undecided seats, but may be able to save one or two.

4:47pm In the Alaska Senate contest, the Republican is still up by 58-36 with 75% in. Mail was added today, but it didn’t break heavily Democratic enough. This will soone be called for the Republicans, as will the North Carolina Senate.

4:45pm Biden’s lead in Georgia (14,100 votes) is now greater than his lead in Arizona (12,800), though in percentage terms the Arizona lead is still bigger (0.38% vs 0.28%). I think there are under 50,000 votes left to count in Arizona.

10:45am Wednesday Biden’s lead over 12,600 in Georgia and 14,200 in Arizona.

2:07pm Biden currently leads Trump by 50.7% to 47.5% in the popular vote tracker. Democrats lead by 216-198 in the House with 21 races still uncalled.

1:38PM Trump won today’s batch of over 6k Maricopa county votes by 50-48. Biden maintains a lead just under 15,000 in Arizona. Meanwhile, Biden has extended his Georgia lead beyond 12,000 votes (0.25%).

11:50am Biden’s Arizona lead now under 15,000.

10:25am Tuesday Biden now leads by over 11,400 votes or 0.23% in Georgia and by 15,400 or 0.46% in Arizona. Biden’s lead has stretched to 2.7% in Nevada and to 0.67% in Pennsylvania.

11:06am Biden’s Arizona lead below 17,000 after a batch of about 13,500 votes from the pro-Trump Pinal county. But Pinal is likely almost finished counting.

10:35am Provisionals are padding Biden’s Georgia lead, now over 10,300 or 0.2%. In Pennsylvania, he leads by over 43,000. In Nevada, he leads by 2.4%.

10:30am Monday Biden’s lead in Arizona back over 20,000 votes after he won the latest batch from Maricopa county. This was a small batch of under 7,000 votes that split to Biden by 55-44. Provisionals, which are counted last, are probably much better for Biden than the late mail votes. Biden is very likely to win Arizona now.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Cook Political analyst Dave Wasserman has an excellent graphic for following the national presidential popular vote. As of Sunday afternoon, it had Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 50.7% to 47.6%. That lead is certain to stretch over the coming weeks as there are far more votes left to be counted in Democratic strongholds like California and New York.

A related question is how far the Electoral College “tipping-point” state was from the national popular vote. With Biden’s lead dropping in Arizona even as it expands in Pennsylvania, it appears that Wisconsin will be the state that gave him 270 Electoral Votes. Biden only won Wisconsin by 0.6%, so it is already 2.5 points more favourable to Trump than nationally, and that gap will stretch further.

In Arizona, Biden’s lead is under 19,000 votes or 0.6% with 97% counted. While early mail ballots were pro-Biden, late mail is pro-Trump. Will Biden hold onto his lead? In Georgia, Biden now has a lead of over 9,000 or 0.2% with almost all votes counted. It is very unlikely that a recount will change that race. Trump will almost certainly win the other two uncalled states, North Carolina and Alaska.

Republicans will also almost certainly win the uncalled Senate races in North Carolina and Alaska, for a 50-48 Senate lead. Both Georgia Senate races are going to January 5 runoffs. Democrats would need to win both to tie the Senate at 50-50 and give Kamala Harris the casting vote.

Democrats lead in the House by 215 to 196 with 24 races uncalled. Eight of the uncalled races are in New York, where mail votes have not been counted and are likely to heavily favour Democrats. Republicans have gained a net of five House seats so far.

265 comments on “US election late counting”

Comments Page 4 of 6
1 3 4 5 6
  1. Trump fires Pentagon chief:
    https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-donald-trump-counterterrorism-christopher-miller-mark-esper-634cd9a8cc00690b7ec8993b8bd64719

    WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump fired Defense Secretary Mark Esper on Monday, an unprecedented move by a president struggling to accept election defeat and angry at a Pentagon leader he believes wasn’t loyal enough.

    The decision was widely expected as Trump had grown increasingly unhappy with Esper over the summer, including sharp differences between them over the use of the military during the civil unrest in June. But the move could unsettle international allies and Pentagon leadership and injects another element of uncertainty to a rocky transition period as Joe Biden prepares to assume the presidency.

  2. Trump is moving much closer in Arizona. Biden lead down to 15,020. On current trends, Trump would win but don’t know where today’s batch’s have come from.

  3. Guardian:

    In September, when the Justice Department publicized an investigation into whether nine mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania – including seven marked for Donald Trump – were allegedly “discarded”, elections experts warned that William Barr was using his department to provide fodder for the president’s baseless claims of fraud.

    The justice department had a longstanding policy against interfering in elections, and an earlier memo from Barr himself – obtained by ProPublica – directed department employees to be “particularly sensitive to safeguarding the Department’s reputation for fairness, neutrality, and non-partisanship” when it came to the elections.

  4. Late riser

    You know that the courts will over turn the us election result to favour our great President Trump and he will Govern for all Americans and will be the best President the US as ever had

  5. Don Winslow
    @donwinslow

    Please note:

    The same people who are telling you that there is “widespread” election fraud also told you that Hillary Clinton was running a child trafficking operation in the basement of a pizza parlor that did not have a basement.

  6. Pennsylvania Attorney General:

    Josh Shapiro
    @JoshShapiroPA
    ·
    4m
    (NOT) BREAKING:

    The Trump campaign’s latest filing is another attempt to throw out legal votes — my team and I were already prepared for this.

    Sleep tight. We will protect the laws of our Commonwealth and the will of the people.

  7. Guardian Update:

    In a last-ditch effort for Republicans to hold onto the executive branch, Trump and his allies have already begun filing a firestorm of lawsuits around the election. But they’ve made little headway thus far.

    “If the number of contested ballots are not greater than the margin, courts are not eager to tear open an election,” although judicial scrutiny could actually address a “lingering cloud of illegitimacy” around the vote counts, said Jonathan Turley, a professor at George Washington University Law School.

  8. The oval office must knee deep in dummies, hamburger boxes and wrappers, empty KFC buckets and soft drink cans. And spittle, lots of spittle as he throws tantrums.

  9. Good batch for Biden

    Maricopa county posted 6,397 ballots to the presidential race.
    Breakdown:
    Biden: 3,056(47.7%)
    Trump: 3,196(49.9%)

    Biden now leads Trump 14,746 in Arizona.

  10. Wayne, you really should work on your kindergarten level trolling. I hear that Little Troll Play School has a couple of openings, get your mummy to sign you up.

  11. Kronomex

    You know I’m right that the courts will overturn the us election result in favour of our great President Trump that’s why you are now name calling…….

    Breaking news this hour the courts have said that Donald Trump is the next President of the USA

  12. Integrity! Yass!

    Robert J. DeNault
    @robertjdenault

    DOJ prosecutor overseeing voter fraud unit leaves his post after Barr’s new order: “Having familiarized myself with the new policy and its ramifications … I must regretfully resign from my role as director of the Election Crimes Branch.”

  13. Wayne @ #171 Tuesday, November 10th, 2020 – 1:21 pm

    Kronomex

    You know I’m right that the courts will overturn the us election result in favour of our great President Trump that’s why you are now name calling…….

    Breaking news this hour the courts have said that Donald Trump is the next President of the USA

    Oh yeah. Where have they said that?

    Jeez, these paid trolls think we’re idiots.

  14. Zerlo @ #172 Tuesday, November 10th, 2020 – 12:30 pm

    Guardian Update: Once again, Donald Trump’s schedule is clear.

    ” rel=”nofollow ugc”>

    And I hope he stays there. He’s out of ideas. Fire a bunch of people because that makes him feel good. Play golf. Fire some more people. Dig up the WH lawn and Putin (sic) a Putting green? All good. Easy fixed.

    The serious stuff though keeps rolling on, eg “The US is expected to fly Cameroonian asylum seekers…” Some civil disobedience now might go a long way, following this example: “I must regretfully resign from my role as director of the Election Crimes Branch.”

  15. Anoncat ☭
    Umbrella
    Waving black flag

    @anoncatanoncat
    BREAKING PHOTO: Metal scaffolding being put up around the White House as crews prepare to build a bigger wall around the property.

  16. BH

    May well be. The count so far is 1 win, 11 losses – and the 1 was to let existing observers move 6’ closer.

    The ‘all these legal challenges’ meme gives the impression of something going on, when it is a nothingburger

  17. If Wayne is indeed being paid to post here, his employees probably should ask for their money back.

    (In all seriousness, come on. It’s clearly someone taking the piss, or a bot programmed by someone taking the piss. Either laugh at him or ignore him.)

  18. BH @ #184 Tuesday, November 10th, 2020 – 1:42 pm

    Was it a delaying tactic by Trump’s mob in not supplying those documents? Another 21 days’ grace to spread more delusion?

    Incompetence seems more likely. In the absence of a court order halting the count or certification process while Trump fixes his legal filing, those things proceed as if there is no pending legal challenge.

    Or if not incompetence, then deliberate sabotage by a lawyer unprincipled enough to take Trump’s money but principled enough to help ensure his case fails.

  19. The election is over (well mostly it is) but the fallout continues.

    That event, which took place six weeks ago, ended up putting Donald Trump and Chris Christie in the hospital, even as numerous other people at the event also caught coronavirus. But no one died – until now. Harry Jackson Jr, a religious adviser to Donald Trump, has now passed away, according to Religion News.

    Jackson was just 66 years old.

    This comes after Donald Trump’s political adviser Herman Cain caught coronavirus at Trump’s infamous Tulsa rally earlier this year and ultimately died several weeks later.

    https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/dies-after-attending-white-house-super-spreader-event/33904/

  20. This is reported by the Arizona Republic at 7pm Monday night ie, end of counting for the day:

    President-elect Joe Biden maintained his lead over President Donald Trump in Arizona on Monday evening as Maricopa County posted more results. Before the latest release of ballots, Biden led the president by 14,886 votes overall in the state. Now, he leads by 14,746.

    Trump picked up 140 votes over Biden in Maricopa County out of about 6,250 additional votes counted.

    The state estimates Arizona’s counties have about 61,500 ballots left to verify and count, and many of those are provisional ballots that may or may not ultimately be verified.

  21. Breaking News this hour I am please to Announce that the courts have declared that Donald Trump is the winner of the US
    Election and will be in power for four years

  22. Donald Trump is the winner of the US
    Election and will be in power for four years

    Only four? President for Life surely, to be followed by Ivanka…

Comments Page 4 of 6
1 3 4 5 6

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *