US election late counting

What will Biden’s final popular vote margin be, will he win Arizona and Georgia, and what will the final House result be? Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

1:00pm Wednesday Dave Wasserman’s current House count is 221 Democrats, 209 Republicans and five undecided. In four of the undecided races, Republicans lead, but there’s some hope for Democrats in New York’s 22nd. At the 2018 midterms, Democrats won the House by a 235-200 margin.

Biden now leads Trump in the popular vote by 50.9% to 47.2% with up to 1.8 million New York mail votes still to be counted. These will be very pro-Biden.

2:30pm Monday November 16 If anyone’s still following this thread, I’ve published a Conversation article about Biden’s narrow margin in the Electoral College tipping-point state (Wisconsin), and about explanations for why the polls understated Trump again. It’s plausible that coronavirus was a factor, because those who followed medical advice to stay home were more likely to respond to polls and be Democrats.

2:25pm In final Arizona results, Biden defeated Trump by 10,377 votes or 0.30%.

11:48am Sunday I posted yesterday about how Biden only won the “tipping-point” state by 0.6% despite his 306-232 Electoral College win, but it appears that post was lost with the site’s problems.

Democrats lead in the House by 218-203 with 14 seats uncalled. Eight of the uncalled races are in New York, where mail counting has been very slow. Mail votes will be very strong for Democrats, and they will win the three seats where they currently lead. Dave Wasserman thinks the Dem in New York’s 22nd has a real chance of overcoming the Rep’s lead once all mail is counted.

3:40pm Arizona CALLED for Biden after he won the latest batch of Maricopa county votes. He leads Trump by over 11,400 votes or 0.34%. That call takes Biden to a 290-217 Electoral College lead. The final two states, Georgia and North Carolina, will go to Biden and Trump respectively. Biden will win the Electoral College by 306-232.

3:00pm Friday In the past, late counting in states such as California and Arizona has been better for Democrats than election night results. The early mail has been pro-Republican, but the late mail has been better for Democrats. This election, it’s clear that Democrats were much keener to vote early, and so the normal pattern has been reversed. That’s why Fox News and the AP called Arizona prematurely.

There’s now a big scare for Democrats in New Jersey’s seventh district. The Republican is within 6,300 votes with almost 39,000 remaining. The Rep has been winning late counted votes by big enough margins to put the Dem in jeopardy. Dems will still retain a narrow House majority, but it’s way below expectations.

2:30pm Trump won a batch of 13,000 Maricopa county, Arizona votes by 9%, but there just aren’t enough votes left for him to overcome his current 11,600+ vote deficit in Arizona. Dave Wasserman has called it for Biden.

11:30am Thursday Both the Alaska and North Carolina Senate races were CALLED for Republicans today, taking them to a 50-48 lead with two Georgia runoffs on January 5. Alaska was also called for Trump, with North Carolina to follow soon.

5:00pm Biden currently leads in the national popular vote by over five million votes (50.8% to 47.4%).

4:57pm Democrats are just over the majority mark in the House, and lead Republicans by 218-201 with 16 still uncalled. Dave Wasserman sees it as 222 Democrats, 206 Republicans and seven undecided. Democrats are currently trailing in all seven undecided seats, but may be able to save one or two.

4:47pm In the Alaska Senate contest, the Republican is still up by 58-36 with 75% in. Mail was added today, but it didn’t break heavily Democratic enough. This will soone be called for the Republicans, as will the North Carolina Senate.

4:45pm Biden’s lead in Georgia (14,100 votes) is now greater than his lead in Arizona (12,800), though in percentage terms the Arizona lead is still bigger (0.38% vs 0.28%). I think there are under 50,000 votes left to count in Arizona.

10:45am Wednesday Biden’s lead over 12,600 in Georgia and 14,200 in Arizona.

2:07pm Biden currently leads Trump by 50.7% to 47.5% in the popular vote tracker. Democrats lead by 216-198 in the House with 21 races still uncalled.

1:38PM Trump won today’s batch of over 6k Maricopa county votes by 50-48. Biden maintains a lead just under 15,000 in Arizona. Meanwhile, Biden has extended his Georgia lead beyond 12,000 votes (0.25%).

11:50am Biden’s Arizona lead now under 15,000.

10:25am Tuesday Biden now leads by over 11,400 votes or 0.23% in Georgia and by 15,400 or 0.46% in Arizona. Biden’s lead has stretched to 2.7% in Nevada and to 0.67% in Pennsylvania.

11:06am Biden’s Arizona lead below 17,000 after a batch of about 13,500 votes from the pro-Trump Pinal county. But Pinal is likely almost finished counting.

10:35am Provisionals are padding Biden’s Georgia lead, now over 10,300 or 0.2%. In Pennsylvania, he leads by over 43,000. In Nevada, he leads by 2.4%.

10:30am Monday Biden’s lead in Arizona back over 20,000 votes after he won the latest batch from Maricopa county. This was a small batch of under 7,000 votes that split to Biden by 55-44. Provisionals, which are counted last, are probably much better for Biden than the late mail votes. Biden is very likely to win Arizona now.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Cook Political analyst Dave Wasserman has an excellent graphic for following the national presidential popular vote. As of Sunday afternoon, it had Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 50.7% to 47.6%. That lead is certain to stretch over the coming weeks as there are far more votes left to be counted in Democratic strongholds like California and New York.

A related question is how far the Electoral College “tipping-point” state was from the national popular vote. With Biden’s lead dropping in Arizona even as it expands in Pennsylvania, it appears that Wisconsin will be the state that gave him 270 Electoral Votes. Biden only won Wisconsin by 0.6%, so it is already 2.5 points more favourable to Trump than nationally, and that gap will stretch further.

In Arizona, Biden’s lead is under 19,000 votes or 0.6% with 97% counted. While early mail ballots were pro-Biden, late mail is pro-Trump. Will Biden hold onto his lead? In Georgia, Biden now has a lead of over 9,000 or 0.2% with almost all votes counted. It is very unlikely that a recount will change that race. Trump will almost certainly win the other two uncalled states, North Carolina and Alaska.

Republicans will also almost certainly win the uncalled Senate races in North Carolina and Alaska, for a 50-48 Senate lead. Both Georgia Senate races are going to January 5 runoffs. Democrats would need to win both to tie the Senate at 50-50 and give Kamala Harris the casting vote.

Democrats lead in the House by 215 to 196 with 24 races uncalled. Eight of the uncalled races are in New York, where mail votes have not been counted and are likely to heavily favour Democrats. Republicans have gained a net of five House seats so far.

265 comments on “US election late counting”

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  2. Steve777

    You know that President Trump won the us election and he as every right to overturn it though the courts which he as done and they ruled in is favour

  4. Trump will pour concrete down the loos, stuff the curtain rods with fish heads and wee on the carpet before he leaves. An utter wrecking ball.

  5. I’m waiting for pay back to Trump when he becomes Citizen.

    Should be glorious day!

    (And Barr).

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/us/politics/republicans-trump-concede.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

    REPUBLICANS ARE TRAITORS TO AMERICA.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/us/kelly-loeffler-david-perdue-raffensperger.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

    ATLANTA — A rift among Georgia Republicans exploded into public view on Monday as the state’s incumbent senators, both locked in fierce runoff fights for their seats, lashed out at the Republican officials who oversaw last week’s election and leveled unfounded claims of a faulty process lacking in transparency.

    The all-out intraparty war erupted as the vote count in Georgia on Monday continued to show President Trump narrowly trailing President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.

    Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler of Georgia took the extraordinary step of issuing a joint statement calling for the resignation of the Republican secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger, and condemning the election as an “embarrassment.”

  7. Watchdog group finds no evidence to support Trump’s election fraud claims
    An international group invited by the Trump administration to observe the presidential election found no evidence to support the president’s claims of fraud, it said in a report.

    The Organization of American States sent 28 observers from 13 countries to watch elections in several states, including Georgia and Michigan, at all stages including early voting and on Election Day, as well as vote tabulation, at the invitation of the U.S. Department of State.

    But noting that Trump had claimed he has only lost in those states because of “fraud,” OAS wrote: “The OAS observers deployed in the battleground states of Michigan and Georgia did not witness any of the aforementioned irregularities.”
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/live-blog/2020-11-10-biden-harris-transition-n1247204?icid=election_nav

  8. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-aides-fret-about-damage-refusal-accept-loss-n1247173

    “There needs to be a candid conversation with the president. There is no path to victory,” said a person close to Trump, who said Trump “deserves his day in court” but added that continuing to cast doubt on the election results “destroys his legacy.”

    “It distracts from the legacy he has to be proud of and marginalizes him,” this person said. “It does not behoove him to drag this out much further.”

    Another Trump ally described the goal of the lawsuits and public statements alleging voter fraud as “branding Trump as something other than a loser.”

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/live-blog/2020-11-10-biden-harris-transition-n1247204/ncrd1247267#liveBlogHeader

    Democratic House committee chairs sent letters Tuesday to the White House and federal agencies directing them to preserve documents related to congressional subpoenas and investigations.

    “Over the last four years, the administration obstructed numerous congressional investigations by refusing to provide responsive information,” the House chairs wrote in letters to agencies and White House counsel Pat Cipollone.

    “You are obligated to ensure that any information previously requested by Congress — and any other information that is required by law to be preserved — is saved and appropriately archived in a manner that is easily retrievable,” they said.

  9. Does anyone have an update on the vote counts in Alaska and North Carolina? Particularly the senate races. Hoping for a surprise boil over in each in late counting lol.

  10. Andrew – NC very unlikely to flip, as there are insufficient ballots left to haul in Tills’ current lead. AK is a bit more interesting, with roughly 150k mail and provisional ballots left to count, and the GOP ahead in all three races about around 55-60k. If any of the Dem candidates win around 2/3 of the remaining ballots, they might just pull it off. Not especially likely, of course, but not impossible.

  11. Andrew,

    North Carolina has small update:

    2 hours ago Trump 74,870 186,584 127 Trump 55.9% / 44.1% Biden Biden is averaging 63.5% Biden needs 70.3%

    The following has been updated:

    Georgia: 12,651 (Biden)
    Arizona: 14,733 (Biden)
    Pennsylvania: 47,342 (Biden)
    Nevada: 36,274 (Biden)

  15. Trump’s shitcanning of John McCain no doubt hurt him in Arizona. But a friend of mine heard that Trump’s shitcanning of the CDC hurt him in Georgia, given the CDC is based in Atlanta.

  16. 43 minutes ago Biden 45,673 44,800 38 Biden 68.4% / 31.6% Trump Trump is averaging 41.0% Trump needs 101.6%

    Apparently Trump will get 105% with remaining votes so should be a shoe in, in Pennsylvania

  17. President Donald Trump rightly won the US election by A Landslide and joe Biden should concede defeat and let our great President Trump run the country for another four years….,,

  18. Some suggestions that a big part of the reasons that Republicans have fallen in behind Trump’s deluded, pointless and baseless disputation of the election result is to keep the base’s umbrage stoked up for the Georgia run-off elections on 5th January. That’s a long time to keep that up for, when it’s highly likely that all of the legal cases will be done and dusted by the end of this month.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/georgia-mcconnell-trump-senate/2020/11/10/76bb80d6-2389-11eb-8672-c281c7a2c96e_story.html

  22. Alaska looking less and less likely for the Democrats – this from 538’s live updates:

    Nathaniel Rakich
    Nov. 10, 9:57 pm

    Alaska just released about 50,000 ballots’ worth of results — about a third of what had been outstanding. And it wasn’t nearly as good for Democrats as they needed. Sullivan’s lead in the Senate race went from 57,810 votes to 52,995; Trump’s lead went from 54,598 votes to 47,767. Don’t be surprised if these races are projected for Republicans soon.

  23. As a long term lurker going back to when Howard and Rudd were squareing off….I have found idiots like Wayne occasionally amusing, but mostly irritating. However should trump be allowed to overturn the election results through dodgy court appointments and effectively enact a coup I think Waynes jokes and trolling to be very far from funny or needed in such dire times as democracy hangs by a thread.

  24. When John S. McCain III was being tortured in Hanoi, Bubbles was selling Manhattan real estate while suffering from ‘bone spurs’.
    Trump is forever blowing bubbles.
    God bless Arizona.

  27. Hugoaugogo @ #210 Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 1:24 pm

    Some suggestions that a big part of the reasons that Republicans have fallen in behind Trump’s deluded, pointless and baseless disputation of the election result is to keep the base’s umbrage stoked up for the Georgia run-off elections on 5th January. That’s a long time to keep that up for, when it’s highly likely that all of the legal cases will be done and dusted by the end of this month.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/georgia-mcconnell-trump-senate/2020/11/10/76bb80d6-2389-11eb-8672-c281c7a2c96e_story.html

    Yup.

    There are two reasons why most Senate Republicans refuse to acknowledge Joe Biden as president-elect: Georgia and Georgia.

    Simply put, the party needs President Donald Trump’s help to clinch two runoff elections in Georgia on Jan. 5 that will determine the fate of the Senate GOP’s majority. And accepting the presidential results ahead of Trump, a politician driven by loyalty, could put Republicans at odds with the president and his core supporters amid the must-win elections down South.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/10/trump-georgia-senate-runoff-435786

  28. Cal Cunningham conceded Tuesday in what was the most expensive senate election in the country this year easily topping 200 million. Thom Tillis has won a second term and 6 more years for North Carolina. All I can say is the Democrats must be furious with Cal. It was up for grabs in early October until Cal sent illicit text messages to a woman who was not his wife. Revelation of the affair upended Cunningham’s campaign, forcing him to apologise and kicking off a period of underground campaigning. Cal refused to answer questions about his affair or sit for interviews with members of the press.
    Tillis flooded the race with late spending highlighting the affair and questioning Cunningham’s character and fitness for office. Cunningham was boosted by a massive spending disparity raising 48 million through mid October compared to just 23 million for Tillis. But it all came to nothing for Cal, and puts the Democrats position in the senate in doubt due to such a stupid and costly action.

  29. “Downright dangerous”.

    When is someone going to call an attempted coup by its name.

    Extreme Republican partisans have been installed in important roles in the Pentagon, following the summary dismissal of the defense secretary, Mark Esper, at a time Donald Trump is refusing to accept his election defeat.

    However defence experts argued there was little the new Trump appointees could do to use their positions to the president’s advantage, given the firm refusal of the uniformed armed services to get involved in domestic politics.

    Read on …

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/11/downright-dangerous-democrat-alarm-as-trump-stacks-pentagon-with-loyalists

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/11/politics/donald-trump-joe-biden-transition/index.html

  33. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/11/us/joe-biden-trump?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

    Georgia’s Republican secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger, authorized a hand recount of the state’s election on Wednesday — a move championed by President Trump but one state elections officials have said was unlikely to erase President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s narrow but significant lead there.

    The recount, which will use the paper printouts created under Georgia’s new electronic voting system and goes further than the “scan” recount required by law, will apply to only the presidential election. It will not affect the outcome of the state’s two Senate races, which will be decided in a runoff on Jan. 5 and will determine whether Republicans maintain control of the Senate.

    Mr. Biden currently leads Mr. Trump in Georgia by more that 14,000 votes, with almost all of the absentee and in-person ballots counted.

    “With the margin being so close, it will require a full by-hand recount in each county,” Mr. Raffensperger told reporters in Atlanta, saying he made the decision because of the “national significance” of the outcome in a state with 16 electoral votes.

  34. Trump takes Alaska, Trump team goes ape after media calls it (of course).

    It all comes down to Georgia.

    No problem for me Biden still winning (and Pennsylvania).

  35. President-elect Joe Biden will name Ron Klain, a veteran Democratic operative and a decades-long confidant, to be his White House chief of staff as early as Thursday morning, the New York Times reports.

    “Mr. Klain, a lawyer with deep experience on Capitol Hill, advising President Barack Obama and in corporate board rooms, has been seen for months as the most likely choice to manage Mr. Biden’s team in the White House. Known for steady nerves, he is well versed as a tactician in the levers of power in both the executive and legislative branches. And he has a fierce wit, which he has frequently unleashed on President Trump on Twitter.”

  37. I am not a lawyer and I know US politics is weird, but how is this not criminal fraud?

    A Pennsylvania postal worker who became Republicans’ star witness after saying he was aware of widespread ballot tampering by the U.S. Post Office has recanted his claims. GOP donors paid have him $136,000 via a GoFundMe campaign.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/postal-worker-fabricated-ballot-pennsylvania/2020/11/10/99269a7c-2364-11eb-8599-406466ad1b8e_story.html

  38. It probably is fraud and/or perjury on the part of the postal worker who provided a false affidavit.

    GOP donors get a free pass because (presumably) the GoFundMe campaign was established after the postal worker made his false claims but before they were outed as false. Technically they can claim to have been defrauded themselves, having donated under the impression that the original allegations were true.

  40. I see the Democrats have secured a reduced House majority.

    If only they’d run a slate of candidates promising Full Communism Now they would have won 400 seats.

  41. Pennsylvania (EV: 20)
    53,244 Biden leads.
    Nevada (EV: 6)
    36,870 Biden leads.
    Georgia (EV: 16)
    14,057 Biden leads.
    Arizona (EV: 11)
    11,635 Biden leads.

  44. 32
    “If only they’d run a slate of candidates promising Full Communism Now they would have won 400 seats.”

    If the Dems had only run AOC clones across seats in Missouri, Texas, Florida, etc…. they would have won the House easily. We all know deep down that Americans really want socialism. Especially those Cuban Americans in Miami-Dade!

    But seriously… there is a view that 2018 was a tough act to follow for the Dems. They performed extremely well in the House in the mid-terms, and lost ground in 2020, especially with ticket-splitting Republicans and Independents.

  45. The traditional view on voting is that Democrats only really turn out in Presidential years, while Republicans tend to vote in off-years too. But what if that no longer holds? The Trump era has sped up something of a re-alignment in US politics, where educated suburbanites (traditionally Republican voters) have moved to wards the Democrats, while the GOP has seen a move toward them among non-college white (traditionally union Democrats). If that holds, then it could be that the Dems have gained a pretty reliable voting block in exchange for a less reliable one.

    This might make a big difference in 2022, particularly as obviously one Donald Trump won’t be on the ballot in the mid-terms. The Dems might yet pad out their House majority a bit, and also pick up a few Senate seats, as the map there is highly favourable for the Blue team, notwithstanding the prevailing wisdom that the party holding the White House loses ground in mid-terms.

    Of course, there is a degree of sui generis about Trump himself, as he both excites and repels voters in equal measure. It could be that his presence on the ballot this year (and his incumbency in 2018) has strongly motivated voters of all stripes to vote either for him or against him. It will be interesting to see what sort of after-effects this has, for both the parties.

  47. Don’t ever change your job Wayne.

    https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html#

    Alaska (EV: 3)
    – Even though Alaska was called for Trump – The lead he has has shrunk to 37,721 votes (This I think should be uncalled for).
    Arizona (EV: 11)
    – Joe Biden still has commendable lead of 11,000 votes here.
    Georgia (EV: 16)
    – Joe Biden still has a bigger lead with over 14,100 votes here (latest batch just upped him there).
    Nevada (EV: 6)
    – Joe Biden leads a large lead here with over 36,800 votes here.
    North Carolina (EV: 15)
    – Another state where Trump leads, but the current batches are against him, his lead has shrunk 71,399 votes margin.
    Pennsylvania (EV: 20)
    – The far biggest lead for Joe Biden is home-state of PA, with a massive margin of over 54,000 votes.

  49. Arizona was last won by a Democrat presidential candidate in 1996 (Bubba Clinton). Before that it was Harry S. Truman way back in 1948.
    Shine on, John S. McCain III.

  50. Adrian Beaumont says:
    Friday, November 13, 2020 at 3:30 pm

    Says over 53,000 votes according to above site, vote margin ~37K.

    Sure still be Republicans, but, considering their inconsistency about count the votes vs stop the votes.

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