As we move into what may very well be an election year, the BludgerTrack voting intention poll aggregate is finally cranked back into action. The model, which naturally picked a fairly comfortable Labor win on the eve of the 2019 election, is not quite what it used to be: there are dramatically fewer data points and less depth available in terms of breakdowns (pollsters have promised more rather than less transparency on this score, but thus far largely failed to deliver), which means there’s no point attempting state-level trends and seat projections as was done before.
Nonetheless, and for what it’s worth, you can now see voting intention trends on the sidebar, and in greater detail here. The lodestar for the model is Newspoll/YouGov: the results of the other pollsters, which really just means Essential Research and the occasional Morgan, are adjusted for bias as measured by the extent of their deviation from a Newspoll trend measure. As it happens though, these adjustments don’t amount to much: over time, none of the three pollsters has shown any particular tendency to favour any one party more than the others.
The trend shows a consistently close race through the current term, somewhat in defiance of media narratives, with Labor poking in front on two-party preferred in the wake of last summer’s bushfires but the Coalition maintaining a lead of around 51-49 for most of this year. This pattern is equally evident in the cruder but probably no less effective aggregate that Kevin Bonham knocked together for his comprehensive view of the year in polling. Part of this may be related to the fact that the new YouGov-administered Newspoll has maintained the pollster’s curious habit of being more consistent than the vagaries of random sampling should theoretically lead us to expect.
I’ve also gone the extra mile on the poll data archive, which now includes all of the expanded breakdown data that Newspoll is now providing in its quarterly aggregates (education, income, language and religion, on top of the traditional state, age and gender) and such two-party state breakdowns as Morgan has provided us, right down to two tiny-sample readings for Tasmania. The leadership ratings trends are still in business, though I’ve bumped them in favour of the voting intention trends on the sidebar.
Rex Douglas @ #96 Wednesday, December 30th, 2020 – 10:27 am
Vaccine is still months away. Where’s the bloody lockdown in NSW? That’s the question.
Cud Chewer @ #95 Wednesday, December 30th, 2020 – 10:25 am
Thanks. 🙂 And you’ve provided a handy description of Trump. Evil By Design.
>I vaguely recall something about Twitter cutting Trump off as soon as he no longer President.
Hope that was correct.
He won’t be immediately cut off, but he gets some protection as a national figure which he will no longer have when he’s no longer president, so he would be at risk of being suspended relatively quickly unless he restrains himself.
‘Operation Warp Speed’ becomes ‘Operation Flat Tire’ as Trump’s vaccine delivery fails: CNN’s Acosta
On CNN Tuesday, anchor Jim Acosta tore into the Trump administration following reports that just 2 million people have been vaccinated, only 10 percent of the government’s goal by the end of the year.
“I spoke with a member of the advisory committee, and she said part of it is how much was left up to the states,” said Acosta. “President Trump seems to be tweeting exactly that. He’s being defensive about this and saying, ‘It is up to the States to distribute the vaccines once brought to the designated area by the Federal Government. We have not only developed them and put up the money to move the process along quickly but gotten them to the states.'”
“This Operation Warp Speed has become Operation Flat Tire, in terms of getting vaccines into people’s arms,” added Acosta.
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-vaccine-failure/
LR
yep
https://structurae.net/en/structures/alconetar-viaduct
Good Morning.
Not looking good for NSW.
@normanswan tweets
The Premier just said that NSW always acts on the precautionary principle. If so on the bases of the numbers and locations now is the time for a Greater Sydney lockdown.
Cud Chewer @ #105 Wednesday, December 30th, 2020 – 10:41 am
Nuts. Hats off to materials science, engineering creativity and builders courage.
Don Winslow@donwinslow·
“At the current rate, Operation Warp Speed would take almost 10 years to inoculate enough Americans to get the pandemic under control.”
Another massive Trump failure.
Great comment in the Guardian:
If you’re not watching Gladys at the moment, let me give you a picture:
Obfuscation, blame, hypocrisy, deflection, uncertainty, confusion, cowardice, wank- word chowder, gun barrel grey power suit.
The ‘Shovelling Shit Down Hill Show’ with Saint Gladys continues unabated.
“Giving people their freedom even though figures are concerning.” ( Her words. Not mine).
https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-fears-over-outbreak-threat-in-greater-sydney-as-mystery-cases-outside-northern-beaches-revealed-20201230-p56qr5.html
A different take on soon-to-be-ex-President Trump. The writer’s point is that Trump will fade away, that being President has already tamed him, and that it is institutional power, including the GOP, who matter more.
Morning bludgers,
I hope everyone had an enjoyable and restful Christmas.
The view from Qld is that Gladys is farking it up; that the gold standard in contract tracing is doing a great job of monitoring the growth of virus cases, but how about some action to bring it to a halt?
How does it seem from within NSW and Sydney?
Oh, and there will be another round of parochial southerner bashing if Brisbane doesn’t get a cricket test because of NSW’s shithouse response to the NB virus cluster.
Just saying.
Dandy,
That would be my personal view as well. The public transport mask index on my regular travel route was running down at under 20% before the outbreak in the Northern Beaches. It rose to about 40-50% during the initial outbreak and crept down to about 30% as the number declined and were mostly being reported in those in quarantine in the Northern Beaches.
I don’t know what it is now as I am not going on public transport 🙂
Gladys is responsible for NSW in equal parts with the salesman from the Shire.
They both may need to recall Dodgy to provide “the balls” in order to make the decision to bounce NSW into a suitable and necessary lockdown.
Not even the ‘bullshitters’ will prevent the reverberations if Gladys falls from the high rope. The net may disappear.
A lover is a stray root, a pandemic untethered, is an orgy.
The outcome of the next test is ambiguous.
No visitors to aged care facilities in Greater Sydney for a week is one good step, if not a particularly hard one to make (small change).
Thanks Griff.
We can hardly point the finger when it comes to complacency up here. Sightings of masks are few and far between, but we have *no* community cases, and have shown a willingness to come down on any outbreak with a sledgehammer.
PvO one of only a few willing to call out this fraudulent PM who is so clearly way out of his depth and Trump-like in his behaviour.
Morrison is greatly damaging this country in very quick fashion.
As to what is happening now – personally I would say that even if the clusters are linked, they are occurring in the ‘wild’ with no containment like in the Northern Beaches. We are seeing the results of Christmas coming through despite low testing rates. NYE will be another super spreader event. The Sydney Test will be a third. All perfectly spaced chronologically for maximum effect.
NSW Health are doing a fantastic job. But will it be enough?
China and the EU are in our news, though mostly for different reasons. So I found this interesting in that context. The EU and China are close to agreeing on a trade deal. It dwarfs any UK-EU deal. Negotiations started 7 years ago, and right at the end of negotiations the French flex their EU membership muscles on Hong Kong and forced labour. I’ve added a link to forced labour on fishing, just because.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/29/eu-demands-china-release-12-hong-kong-activists-as-trial-starts
https://www.politico.eu/article/china-uighur-forced-labor-eu-investment-deal/
https://globalfishingwatch.org/research/forced-labor-in-fisheries/
Masks on public transport etc should of been mandatory from the get go. I’ve been wearing a mask outside since Feb. It isn’t that hard to do but now we may pay the price here in Sydney because of the precious idiots of the NSW govt and the “let’s open up and party till you die ” mantra because Covid is so yesterdays news and we have it all under control..
Effwits.
NSW Health are doing a fantastic job. But will it be enough?
There’s a saying in the engineering disciplines: No control without measurement.
But that’s assuming you are actually do some control actions too.
On the flip side, it is very good that most people are on holidays. We are also seeing a precipitous drop in public transport use beginning the 17th of December which was earlier and larger than other capital cities over this time period.
Itza, it is good to see restriction in access to aged care facilities.
Just being a devils advocate- except for Morrison, Gladys and the Murdoch cheerleaders, why do we assume that “NSW Health are doing a fantastic job” ? They were ultimately blamed for Ruby Princess, for a start.
The UK tabloids reporting of the Brexit deal are genuinely funny.
As are those Tories who, having spent four decades assiduously fostering festering discontent, division, and resentment with the EU, are now braying for ‘unity’. The Scots, the 48% who voted Remain, and the workers who conditions and wages will suffer as a consequence, are now going to get ‘unity’ rammed down their throats.
The English used to excel at irony.
The closest I can find to a similar re-write of reality by the English was the way in which the successful invasion of England by the Dutch under William in 1688-9 was touted as the ‘Glorious Revolution’.
Parts of the Brexit deal involve yet more few small steps in the final repudiation of the consequences of that invasion by the Irish.
The failure of politicians to wear masks as an example is a major fail. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Gladys wearing one. People are reasonable, and will follow the leader, but only if the leader does it.
I was in a country pharmacy last week, wearing a mask. Not a mask in town (not that unreasonable) except for the pharmacy staff. A bloke walked in, didn’t see me waiting to one side, walked to the counter, looked around, saw my mask and all but literally jumped sideways a metre.
Masks are constant reminders. Visual alerts. AlarmAlarm.
The thing with the Gladys puppet is, she’s Not Very Bright.
It’s always holiday periods that expose the inadequacy of pandemic controls.
China had it with Lunar New Year, where the Chinese government found the “Exodus” impulse among Chinese people too strong to withstand. Now we hear the Wuhan (and probably elsewhere) numbers were vastly understated.
America had it with Thanksgiving.
Now NSW is copping it, due to the almost incomprehensible belief among large (or large enough) swathes of its population that catching up with the greater family for the traditional Chrissy get togethers, and dancing and drinking yourself stupid at Bronte Beach renders you immune from infection.
That, and the governments’ belief in all the above cases that the “freedom” of its people to enjoy their “rights” includes the freedom to get sick and possibly die – but always to infect others before you do.
We have “party houses” up here where the thump-thump-thump of dance music coming from every second Air-BnB as a dozen or more invulnerable carousers jump up and down into the wee small hours enjoying them selves. Asking them to stop it just results in being told to “Get fucked mate”, according to my neighbour, who tried the direct approach.
Thankfully this madness only lasts for a month, until Australia Day. Then they all go home. Boozeville becomes Snoozeville again.
But in the meantime, especially in Sydney where (as one wag put it here yesterday) the Rule “Stay indoors… unless you feel like going out” seems to have universal application. In the capital (and increasingly large areas of its hinterland) the biggest public issue seems to be whether the Test will be played on schedule, or if cracker night is still on. And that thump-thump-thump…
Many are ahead of the Govt on this. My mother-in-law was allowed out for Christmas on the condition that she then remain quarantined in her room for two weeks, with staff and visitors needing to gown, glove, and mask up to enter.
What is fascinating for me is the 12 month global collective exercise in risk perception. The anchoring and adjustment heuristic is particularly interesting with respect to how we respond to COVID statistics.
As for NSW, as it is not longer just Sydney, I hope NSW Health is not overconfident in their probability estimates from their (relatively) small dataset. Experts are prone to overconfidence.
Edit: is not if
The reporting of new strains of virus that are more contagious is worrying when you recognise that our current quarantine system can leak cases into the community. The federal governments determination to do nothing about a more sustainable solution away from areas of high population density is thus putting us all at risk.
How is Morrison going to respond when the gold star state continues to have outbreaks, at some point I think the people of NSW are going to want the constant see-sawing of numbers to cease. How s this going o be achieved when a lack of lockdown has potentially already spread cases into regional areas. To me it is very concerning that people from Sydney are travelling to the regions to stay 14 days so they can travel interstate. This is just encouraging the spread.further afield.
Griff @ #119 Wednesday, December 30th, 2020 – 11:17 am
Nope. There is no fantastic job without lockdowns to back it up.
Rex Douglas @ #96 Wednesday, December 30th, 2020 – 8:27 am
How would fast tracking a vaccine benefit Australia?
Torchbearer,
NSW Health are doing a great job as they have capacity and expertise to do so. There are two key areas they are performing well:
1. NSW has serious pathology capacity. Admittedly due to propensity to overtest in routine medical care, but we have it. We are still in a period in which we are able to perform genomic sequencing without restriction.
To paraphrase Dandy, we are measuring well.
2. We are still in a position to conduct good contact tracing. The case numbers are still low and the majority of cases were in a locked down area.
Arguably, the reason we are doing well is that we locked down the centre of the cluster. The reason why we are at risk is that, without the index case and all lines of transmission, there may have been unknown lines of transmission. Now we know that is the case.
So the question is do we lock down Greater Sydney? Do we make masks mandatory? We are restricting NYE to 5 people and open air meetings to 30. Except the SCG as that has a magical forcefield of tradition, power and prestige that protects it from a silly little virus.
Tricky, and despite what Gladys tells us, NSW is treating these decisions as political decisions.
[‘…Senator Hughes, a social smoker, thought an investigation into tobacco harm reduction was needed.
…
At the time of our interview, she has gone 97 days without a cigarette and saved more than $2500 by not buying her $58-a-pack cigarettes.
…
Late in December the Therapeutic Goods Administration announced its decision to move to a prescription model for nicotine e-cigarettes, which will come into effect on October 1, 2021.’]
I think Hughes may’ve been a bit more than a social smoker but nonetheless, fairly good news for vapers if that’s the right word:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-a-bungled-vaping-bill-got-hollie-hughes-off-cigarettes-20201224-p56q16.html
Of the 25 new NSW cases to 8pm last night:
Nine locally acquired cases are linked to the Avalon cluster. Eight of these cases were isolating for their full infectious period.
Six locally acquired cases, three adults and three children, all members of the same extended family, are linked to a cluster in Sydney’s Inner West whose source is still under investigation. One of these cases was first reported yesterday morning.
Three further locally acquired cases are under investigation. Two cases, members of the same household, are from the Wollongong area and one is from northern Sydney. One of the cases from Wollongong and the northern Sydney case were first reported yesterday morning.
Seven cases were acquired overseas and are in hotel quarantine.
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20201230_00.aspx
Interesting that the messaging from the CMO, Paul Kelly, is now that we aren’t as bad as USA and UK.
Obviously, we are happy that we aren’t like NZ. It is NZ we should be aiming for.
Sensible decision.
Afternoon all. Xanthippe also thinks NSW (or at least greater sydney) should be going into lockdown now. Gladys is taking a big risk with public health.
She also said a colleague on Twitter had reported Tony Abbott, with a group of recreational cyclists, had been spotted going into a cafe in the Northern Beaches for a coffee stop, in breach of current movement rules i.e. after the group had cycled from further south into the Northern Beaches are first. A significant transmission risk if any of them were infected.
Thanks to C@t for the news, and to everyone for the cartoons. I am only dipping in and out of PB at the moment.
However, LvT’s comments about Case Zero last night meant I had a quick look at twitter – interesting speculation about one of the people with a quarantine exemption – as Lars says, almost a s good as Tony Abbott being Case Zero.
To add to that, I heard some disturbing things from my DIL on Boxing Day. She went to a wealthy Eastern suburbs private girls school. She is still in contact with her compatriots, especially on Facebook.
Several families she knows have been allowed to visit Australia (Northern Beaches, Sydney) without quarantining over Christmas, despite coming from hotspots such as New York. One family flew almost immediately to the Sunshine Coast in QLD.
We are not sure how the families are getting exemptions, or why no one is stopping them flying interstate. But being able to afford to fly first class seems to help.
I asked her if any of them could be termed a “well-known Avalon couple”, but apparently not.
She was quite upset understandably. She is pregnant, and trying hard to protect herself and her little family from COVID.
A question for our medical friends – I get the impression that the wealthy feel that COVID is unlikely to hurt them if they do get it, because they are in good health and can afford the best medical care available. How much truth is there in this idea.
I presume that Trump, Bolsanaro, Macron and Trump getting the plague and recovering without obvious damage adds to this myth, if it is a myth.
I suspect GladysB just about right now is having that same feeling when ICAC investigators said ‘We’d like to have a chat with you about Daryl.’
What promises were made yesterday to Cricket Australia to maintain the Sydney Test? ‘We have it all under control, look the numbers are dropping’. What did she know of the extent of the Wollongong and Croydon unlinked clusters?
It now is probable that the virus is in the wild in Sydney, ready to pop up up quicker than a ProMo brand placement.
Cricket Australia would be desperate to get or keep existing government funding at present. Their revenue is way down and they are locked in a court case with Channel Severn over the FTA TV rights, amid an argument over timing of the tests v one day games. Very easy for govenment to twist those arms.
on the up started ???
United States :
Coronavirus Cases:
19,977,704
Deaths:
346,579
– 194,860 new cases and 3,398 new deaths in the United States
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
And it’s only the elderly and/or poor who die of C19. So say any number of Murdoch propagandists..
‘ Louisiana Congressman-elect Luke Letlow has died at Ochsner LSU Health in Shreveport with COVID-19, a family friend confirmed Tuesday night.
Letlow, 41, was transferred from St. Francis Medical Center to the Ochsner LSU Health ICU on Dec. 23 and has been treated there since then.
Letlow is survived by his wife, Julia Barnhill Letlow, and two young children.’
https://www.thenewsstar.com/story/news/2020/12/29/louisiana-congressman-elect-luke-letlow-dies-covid/4082977001/
Going in and out of lockdowns and restrictions like yo-yos is apparently what Scotty calls “living with the virus”, so I supposed he’s very satisfied with NSW.
Our newly appointed Chief Medical Officer, is adept at the mixed messaging…
‘Kelly is asked about the Sydney Cricket Ground hosting the third test between Australia and India.
Kelly, who admits he is a cricket tragic, says that NSW authorities stressed that outdoor entertainment in a seated venue is much safer than indoor gatherings.
I agree with that. I must say that – and I know that there are very good COVID-safe plans that have been reinforced with New South Wales Health and the SCG, as well, I’m sure Cricket Australia … that will be able to be looked at in coming days. There are crowd restrictions, for example, masks will be made available, et cetera.
However, Kelly adds that he wouldn’t be taken his elderly family members to the cricket.
The other thing I would say is that the start date is 7 January and nine days is very long in Covid time. So let’s see what happens in Sydney in the next week.
Pressed on whether he is OK with the cricket going ahead, he says it’s a decision for the NSW government.
Very concerning situation.
This was the link to the Twitter post about Abbott. The alleged breach was in his going into the Cafe. IF as a southern zone rsident he had cycled through the northern zone without going into any premises he would have been OK. But he did go in.
https://twitter.com/Elanora_Dreamer/status/1343728124488372225
Apologies if others have already covered this, but a pretty blatant double standard compared to treatment of other Covid regulation breakers. Tony “Karen” Abbott can do as he pleases because his mates run the country.
Dandy Murray @ #NaN Wednesday, December 30th, 2020 – 11:59 am
I’ve just returned from doing the weekly shop and to my eyes it looks like Covid Fatigue has set in in my neck of the woods on the Central Coast at least.
I saw plenty of masks at half mast, if people were wearing one at all, even the people working in shops that see a steady stream of customers every day. I saw a few Coles staff, who are supposed to wear masks as a mandatory rule, doing the under the nose/over the mouth thing and one who was on the phone had removed his to speak.
It’s extremely humid here, so with lots of people generating lots of body heat, I can understand the temptation to give yourself some relief. Still…
We also had a conversation with a cleaner my son knew from his old high school. He was all about ‘Covid is just another flu’. I tried to disabuse him with some facts but it’s really hard to change people’s minds when they get stuck on an idea and they have their friends and people like Alan Jones and 2GB, reinforcing it. Not to mention social media.
I guess the best we can all hope for is that the vast majority of people get it and do the right thing, so that we muddle through.
To which I might add, Gladys Berejiklian is providing zero leadership on this. And not the sort that gives you donuts like in Victoria.
Douglas and Milko
There is a continuing thread running through Twitter that “rich people are avoiding the rules” and that their activities are being kept secret. Unless there is more frankness instead of silence and concealment, this will continue to have legs. It can’t all be class envy, witness Abbott’s behaviour, which has been reported and photographed by a number of people.