As we move into what may very well be an election year, the BludgerTrack voting intention poll aggregate is finally cranked back into action. The model, which naturally picked a fairly comfortable Labor win on the eve of the 2019 election, is not quite what it used to be: there are dramatically fewer data points and less depth available in terms of breakdowns (pollsters have promised more rather than less transparency on this score, but thus far largely failed to deliver), which means there’s no point attempting state-level trends and seat projections as was done before.
Nonetheless, and for what it’s worth, you can now see voting intention trends on the sidebar, and in greater detail here. The lodestar for the model is Newspoll/YouGov: the results of the other pollsters, which really just means Essential Research and the occasional Morgan, are adjusted for bias as measured by the extent of their deviation from a Newspoll trend measure. As it happens though, these adjustments don’t amount to much: over time, none of the three pollsters has shown any particular tendency to favour any one party more than the others.
The trend shows a consistently close race through the current term, somewhat in defiance of media narratives, with Labor poking in front on two-party preferred in the wake of last summer’s bushfires but the Coalition maintaining a lead of around 51-49 for most of this year. This pattern is equally evident in the cruder but probably no less effective aggregate that Kevin Bonham knocked together for his comprehensive view of the year in polling. Part of this may be related to the fact that the new YouGov-administered Newspoll has maintained the pollster’s curious habit of being more consistent than the vagaries of random sampling should theoretically lead us to expect.
I’ve also gone the extra mile on the poll data archive, which now includes all of the expanded breakdown data that Newspoll is now providing in its quarterly aggregates (education, income, language and religion, on top of the traditional state, age and gender) and such two-party state breakdowns as Morgan has provided us, right down to two tiny-sample readings for Tasmania. The leadership ratings trends are still in business, though I’ve bumped them in favour of the voting intention trends on the sidebar.
Griff
We are not measuring well. There are a LOT of people with symptoms not getting tested because “couldn’t be me.. isn’t covid”..
Even when you get a surge of testing, its often poorly distributed, both in terms of geography and in terms of most people doing the right thing and the rest not giving a shit.
Even a theoretically perfect trace and isolate system will fall over rapidly if you have non-testing in the right groups of people and the right suburbs.
More than a year before the Nashville bombing, police were warned the bomber was “building bombs in his RV.” Standard checks didn’t raise any flags.
Girlfriend warned Nashville police Anthony Warner was building bomb a year ago, report shows
NASHVILLE — Sixteen months before Anthony Quinn Warner’s RV exploded in downtown Nashville on Christmas morning, officers visited his home in Antioch after his girlfriend reported that he was making bombs in the vehicle, according to documents obtained by The Tennessean
The Tennessee Bureau of Investigation said Warner was “not on our radar” prior to the bombing. But a Metro Nashville Police Department report from August 2019 shows that local and federal authorities were aware of alleged threats he had made.
https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/crime/2020/12/29/nashville-explosion-woman-warned-mnpd-warner-building-bomb-2019/4082253001/
Dandy
What I vaguely remember from Control Theory lectures was time delays turn a controllable system into a disaster and also turn a simple mathematical expression into a page full of domain transfers. Which is the point at which I started playing Asteroids.
Patrons at the SCG cricket match will be safer there than if they stay at home.
Now I’ve heard everything.
I remember Brett Sutton talking about the “long tail” in Melbourne.
Dio
They seem to ignore that in getting to and from the SCG there are countless close contacts that can never be traced.
lizzie
The reason why the end of the Melbourne outbreak was so clean, basically following a decaying exponential all the way to zero, had a lot to do I think with masks.
Gold standard Gladys? I dont think so.
Ha! Sydneysiders, is the SMH the new Daily Torygraph?
I understand the problems at sporting venues aren’t due to the ability to distance in the stands but are more to do with using toilets, being crammed into walkways, etc.
Sohar
I assumed that was a mock-up!
cc
Public transport, getting in the gate, walkway, toilet, bar, kiosk, getting out the gate.
How do you trace all those people?
Sohar,
You should see the adds in the classifieds section 😉
Lizzie,
“Sohar
I assumed that was a mock-up!”
Yep. I’d say it has more than its fair share of photoshopping, but the underlying message is the same.
Just need the word ‘Corrupt’ in front of the name Gladys.
CC,
There’s only one other rule to remember: If everything looks under control, you’re not going fast enough!
Australia’s complex system of alerts and warning levels for national emergencies will be replaced by a clearer system whereby people will simply check to see if Scott Morrison has fucked off on holidays.
“If he’s on holidays, assume there’s an emergency gripping the nation. If he’s not, then you can safely say everything is under control,” a spokesperson for the new system said.
“We saw it last year when the bushfires were ravaging the country – there was some confusion about the various different codes and warning levels. If this system had been in place then, we could’ve just noted the fact that the PM was putting his feet up in a resort, and then instantly implemented emergency procedures”.
The spokesperson said the new system was already working. “We were uncertain at first of the severity of the COVID situation in Sydney. But then we noted that the PM was on holidays and we knew straight away that we had an emergency on our hands”.
Despite widespread support, one policy expert criticised the new approach, saying it is still not clear enough. “What we’ve seen all throughout this year is that if Scott Morrison is not officially on holiday then he is unofficially on holiday – building a cubby house for a guinea pig or some bullshit. So it’s very hard to tell the difference”.
Courtesy of The Shovel.
Zoom
“I understand the problems at sporting venues aren’t due to the ability to distance in the stands but are more to do with using toilets, being crammed into walkways, etc.”
Right. Design of stadia and most public meeting venues is driven by fire evacuation and entry queuing criteria. Toilets and food areas are also a challenge. At these points crowding is significant, and would need management to prevent queues of people standing too close.
No way you can have 20,000 people in a stadium and meet social distancing rules. This is not a matter of opinion; space versus number of people is simple maths.
Restrictions in the ACT for travellers from Greater Sydney, Wollongong extended over New Year’s to January 6
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-30/act-travel-restrictions-for-sydney,-wollongong-extended-new-year/13021218
Gladys might not have locked us down yet, but Woolworths seems to be anticipating a tightening of the current situation. I have just completed my fortnightly home delivery order during which I ordered a packet of toilet paper. At the top of the relevant page was a notice that purchases of toilet “tissue”(their term, not mine) was now limited to 2 per customer. Perhaps I should have ordered two.
My son made a very interesting point about the depth of marketing a leader that Liberals go to these days. He made a negative comment about it but the fact is that, in NSW, whenever you get a phone update on the number of Covid cases for the day, it comes with an embedded photo of Gladys Berejiklian in the image. he said, I see enough of her damn face, I don’t want to see it whenever I check the Covid numbers too!
Jaeger @ #168 Wednesday, December 30th, 2020 – 11:38 am
Probably why GWS chose Albury and not Canberra for their escape.
Extending to the borders of ‘Greater Sydney’…
JUST IN: A worker at the Greenwell and Thomas Pharmacy at Katoomba in the Blue Mountains has recorded a positive COVID-19 test, according to management. They staff member worked the 26th and 27th December. The new case was not mentioned by the Premier earlier today. @newscomauHQ
Bennelong Lurker
“At the top of the relevant page was a notice that purchases of toilet “tissue”(their term, not mine) was now limited to 2 per customer. ”
Squares, or rolls?
😉
Kakaru
Don’t think that the options were specifically delineated. I’ll let you know whether I get one square, one roll, or one packet after tomorrow’s delivery.
Edit: added additional sentence.
Murdoch’s DT front page today (seen at supermarket):
Virus crisis (small print)
TEST OF CHARACTER (huge print)
Not enough people being tested in Sydney, so it’s all YOUR fault for not listening to dear sweet Gladys.
[‘Republican Louisiana Congressman-elect Luke Letlow, 41, dies from COVID-19 just over ten days after testing positive for the virus. Luke Letlow, 41, told constituents on December 18 that he had COVID-19. He was taken to the hospital on December 21 but was moved to the ICU.
The father-of-two was being given Remdesivir and a combination of steroids. Letlow had held a number of campaign events – some with masks, some without Letlow, a Republican, won a runoff election on December 5th for the 5th District seat, which represents Northeast and Central Louisiana
He was due to be sworn in on Sunday and is the first member or member-elect of Congress to die from the coronavirus.’]
phoenixRED
It’s as likely that counting is ramping back up.
Trump will spend his last days in ‘nefarious neglect’ of America while trying to enrich himself: Scaramucci
On CNN Tuesday, outgoing President Donald Trump’s former White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci outlined how he believes the president will spend his final days in office.
“The last two weeks of the administration, there will be a series of ridiculous pardons, and a series of nefarious neglect, and activities related to setting President Trump and his family for the post-presidency, and some of it will be related to fundraising and some will be pardons with those pardons being tied to something in the future,” said Scaramucci. “It is terrible.”
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-neglect-america-final-days/
Trump Will Likely Be ‘Overwhelmed’ By Legal And Financial Trouble Right After Leaving Office
Presidential historian Michael Beschloss pointed out on Tuesday, Trump will most likely be so deep in legal and financial trouble that he won’t have time to lead a conventional post-presidency life – much less mount another presidential bid.
“This is someone who’s got big financial problems, big legal problems,” Beschloss said of the outgoing president. “He’s going to probably be overwhelmed by them, maybe very soon after he leaves office.”
Trump whined about how mean everybody has been to him and urged his supporters to keep him in the White House forever.
Donald Trump will no longer be president once Joe Biden is sworn in on Jan. 20, and the American people will finally get to see why he was so afraid of leaving office.
https://www.politicususa.com/2020/12/29/trump-will-likely-be-overwhelmed-by-legal-and-financial-trouble-right-after-leaving-office.html
Trump whined about how mean everybody has been to him and urged his supporters to keep him in the White House forever.
And how are they supposed to be doing that for him?
Dena Grayson, MD, PhD @DrDenaGrayson
Terrible news. Tough #lockdown restrictions extended in Southern #California—home to >50% of CA’s 40 million people—because ICUs likely to stay 100% filled or near capacity for weeks to come.
No ICU/ventilator availability – more DEATHS.
California coronavirus lockdowns extended as hospitals teeter on brink of crisis
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – Strict stay-at-home orders were renewed indefinitely on Tuesday for much of California, a leading U.S. hot spot of the COVID-19 pandemic, as the state’s top health official said that many hospitals were teetering on the brink of crisis.
Tough restrictions imposed earlier this month on social and economic life were extended in densely populated Southern California – home to more than half of the state’s 40 million people – based on data showing intensive care units there likely to stay filled at or near capacity for weeks to come.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-california-idUSKBN29406A
I can sense the excitement rising on here – Covid 19 outbreak in Sydney / fault of the NSW Liberals. No doubt there are twitter memes which can be reposted too!
Gleeful reports of every new positive case – that can be personally blamed on Gladys B.
Not unlike when some on here demanded Gladys attended body corporate meetings for dodgy unit developments (which had been approved under NSW Labor).
In order to try and win the Georgia Senate run-offs, Republicans are trying to do what they always do, purge the voter rolls. Bad luck them, they came up against Stacey Abrams sister, a judge:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/dec/29/georgia-senate-runoff-counties-judge-halts-voter-purge
Question for the more knowledgeable: Doesn’t Trump’s term end whether or not Biden or anyone else is sworn in?
In either case, the time we’re talking about is Thursday 2021-01-21 3:00 AM (Australian East Coast), which I’m told is 4am for folks south of the border. (21 days and 12.5 hours from now.)
I suppose that the fact that Trump is dishing out pardons would indicate that he’s accepted that he will be leaving office soon.
I like how bullies always whinge about how badly everybody else is bullying them, and then get taken seriously. Or rather, I don’t like that. 🙁
Why do they do it? This excellent article explains why:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/26/us/politics/republicans-voter-fraud.html
Lars Von Trier @ #184 Wednesday, December 30th, 2020 – 2:27 pm
She’s been pretty consistent about resisting lockdowns and border closures and strongly criticizing states which have implemented those things (to pandemic-control success, no less), so…yep.
Fair enough to blame her personally for when things inevitably get out of hand due to her lackadaisical attitude towards the pandemic and inadequate response.
LvT proving Liberal leaders should be held to a lower standard of personal responsibility than Labor leaders. Of course. Which is what they have conditioned unthinking numpties to think.
Covid Death Toll to Reach 400,000 Before Trump Departs, CDC Says
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now predicts the U.S. will see 400,000 coronavirus deaths by Jan. 20, when President Donald Trump is to leave office.
The country surpassed 100,000 deaths in May, and 200,000 four months later. It passed 300,000 in three months, and 400,000 looks set to take just one month, the CDC determined using a collection of mathematical models. The U.S. has one of the highest mortality ratios of nations hit hardest by the virus, behind only Italy, Spain and the U.K., scaled for population.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-29/cdc-forecasts-400-000-u-s-covid-deaths-before-trump-s-exit
The RW in Australia are still pushing the same tactics, such as legislation to require voter ID. Perhaps the American experience will enable saner voices to be heard should Morrison try to enact such legislation.
Bennelong Lurker
“Don’t think that the options were specifically delineated. I’ll let you know whether I get one square, one roll, or one packet after tomorrow’s delivery. ”
To be on the safe side, avoid spicy curries until you know for sure. Or purchase a copy of the Daily Telegraph – this is one time it could prove useful.
No need to buy copies of the DT if toilet paper is rationed. The Global Times is free at shopping centres and the more copies one takes, the fewer copies available for gullible readers of their extreme right propaganda.
Kakuru @ #193 Wednesday, December 30th, 2020 – 12:58 pm
I don’t think many here have been in the position of having to use it as an alternate means of cleansing.
Hint: Newspaper should be one of your last fallback positions, behind things like taking a shower or going for a swim.
Don’t faint. I just saw Jody McKay mentioned in a newspaper – calling for the cricket to be TV only, like the fireworks. OK, it was the Guardian, but nonetheless.
SMH is running a good piece by Raina Fabulous Hair MacIntyre, saying playing the Test to crowds at the SCG just isn’t cricket.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/mass-crowds-at-scg-during-sydney-covid-outbreak-it-s-just-not-cricket-20201230-p56qv7.html
What do you do with young people (18, 19 and 21) who, three days in a row, have spent at least two hours each day in the local shopping mall full of Sydney holidaymakers, but refuse to wash their hands upon returning home because they think it’s “over-reacting” and “too nerdy” to do so?
C@tmomma @ #191 Wednesday, December 30th, 2020 – 3:44 pm
Still waiting for Morrison to apologise and take responsibility for the 680 deaths in aged care homes.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Sydney Test were to be cancelled or moved. It should be.
Bushfire Bill @ #197 Wednesday, December 30th, 2020 – 1:12 pm
Lock the door? 😆