Still very quiet on the polling front, but speculation of a federal election later this year has given scribes plenty to work with over the quiet season:
• A report in the Age/Herald concludes the most likely months are October and November, with Liberal Party officials being told to have their act together at least by August. However, it is noted that “the pandemic could derail any possible plan for an early poll”.
• The above report also relates that the Queensland Liberal National Party’s Senate ticket is to be decided by May 1. This presents the Coalition with a difficulty, in that second position is reserved for the Nationals and duly assured for Matt Canavan, leaving Liberal up-and-comers James McGrath and Amanda Stoker in a high-stakes battle for first and third. The loser will at least be able to console themselves with the knowledge that the Coalition has won at least three Senate seats in Queensland at each of the seven elections since 2001.
• Also noted in the report is a fact that escaped my notice amid the excitement of events in the United States — namely, that the Western Australian Liberals finalised their Senate ticket in early November. This occurred at the same time that Ben Small, a logistics manager at Woodside Energy and owner of a bar and restaurant in Bunbury, was chosen to fill the vacancy created by Mathias Cormmann’s retirement. Small will take third position on the ticket behind Michaelia Cash and Dean Smith, both of whom have gone up a notch in Cormann’s absence. Smith had to overcome a bid by religious conservatives to dump him in favour of Albert Jacob, mayor of Joondalup and former state member for Ocean Reef. Peter Law of The West Australian reported the move was “perceived by some within the party as retribution for the eight-year Senator’s very public campaign for marriage equality in 2017”.
• There are a whole bunch of redistribution processes in train at the moment. At federal level, draft boundaries for Victoria and Western Australia are due to be published by the end of March, respectively to be finalised on July 26 and August 2. The redistributions will increase Victoria’s representation from 38 seats to 39, and reduce Western Australia’s from 16 to 15. A state redistribution process also began in Victoria last month, with draft boundaries due at the end of June and final boundaries to be published on October 14. In New South Wales, submissions are being weighed up to draft boundaries that were published in November, and while no date is set for their finalisation, it could roughly be guessed that it will happen in March or April.
dave says:
Monday, January 25, 2021 at 10:18 am
China’s Growing Power Is Scaring Ordinary Savers Out of Hong Kong
…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-24/china-s-growing-power-is-scaring-ordinary-savers-out-of-hong-kong?srnd=premium-asia
China has problems, and I am not sure if creating an environment that people want to leave is the solution.
https://www.dw.com/en/global-population-decline-will-hit-china-hard/a-50326522
boerwar @ #46 Monday, January 25th, 2021 – 10:25 am
They are in a very difficult position, but those who have taken Australian citizenship have sworn allegiance to Australia.
xi doesn’t see it that way.
Good Morning.
A. Couple of points.
First I am not surprised at Michael Rowlands comments. He is very US orientated. This is the effect of all that US media coverage of how Murdoch was the enabler platform for conspiracy theories. Expect to see more of it.
Secondly.
I agree with Zoomster on early elections. However I think Zoomster missed the other wild card as demonstrated by Michael Rowland talking about Newscorp
The US political commentary has a major impact on political discourse worldwide including Australia. Morrison is on the wrong side of the US in many many areas.
A graphic example. Immigration. Donald Trump told Malcolm Turnbull that our policy was worse than his.
Then add climate and economic policy to the mix and Morrison is in trouble.
Smart of Albanese to talk industrial relations to increase quality of life as Biden fights to double the wages of Americans with raising the minimum wage. As we saw with Reagan you much prefer to be with the US President not against him.
So the question is will Morrison see all this along with the years and years of deficits installed making his chances of remaking PM. be worse by waiting for more of the changed political discourse being to his advantage? So I do think the odds for an early election are higher not lower than normal in the cycle. If I bet I still think he will avoid an early election even so. I base this on the backing of Reaganism/Thatcherism still supported by the LNP publicly. They are not reading the room
zoomster
I enjoy such speculation.
Given the politicization of all things Indigenous in Australia, my preference is for a strong evidence base. In the case of megafauna, it is strongly in the interests of those who hate Indigenous Australians to maintain that they drove the megafauna to extinction.
There is virtually no evidentiary basis for this claim.
Correlation is not causation.
It may be that the first Indigenous arrivals brought with them a set of pathogens that played havoc with the megafauna. We don’t know.
file:///C:/Users/User/AppData/Local/Temp/Sub97.pdf
guytaur @ #52 Monday, January 25th, 2021 – 10:37 am
I agree regarding Albanese talking about IR and in sync with Biden.
It’s just a tragedy that the Labor right through Shorten and Fitzgibbon are intent on taking the wind out of his sails with their agitating behind the scenes and out front on radio and in the press today.
frednk
There is some suggestion that Xi’s walls with Vietnam, Laos and Myanmmar are at least partly about keeping Chinese citizens IN. Xi’s totalitarian despotism at work?
boerwar says:
…
Given the politicization of all things Indigenous in Australia, my preference is for a strong evidence base. In the case of megafauna, it is strongly in the interests of those who hate Indigenous Australians to maintain that they drove the megafauna to extinction.
It would undermine the claim that they are the guardians for sure, but strengthen the argument that we are one species and all members of that species deserve equal respect.
lizzie @ #47 Monday, January 25th, 2021 – 10:29 am
Don’t be sad. As I have told the story before, my Indigenous lady friend has said to me that she appreciates all the advances the settlers in Australia have made for her people but the unfinished business is recognition. She’s not bitter about it, just determined to get it. 🙂
Another sign Morrison is not going for an early election. The Google fight.
Talk about giving Google an incentive to ban disinformation in the form of advertising on it’s platforms during a campaign
It’s just a tragedy that the Labor right through Shorten and Fitzgibbon are intent on taking the wind out of his sails with their agitating behind the scenes and out front on radio and in the press today.
Yes, that is correct.
So, January 26th is now entrenched as a day of division and conflict.
White supremacist Day.
Invasion Day.
or just a plain old lazy public holiday.
Take your pick.
boerwar says:
Monday, January 25, 2021 at 10:44 am
frednk
There is some suggestion that Xi’s walls with Vietnam, Laos and Myanmmar are at least partly about keeping Chinese citizens IN. Xi’s totalitarian despotism at work?
You can’t run a war if you don’t have cannon fodder. China does not have cannon fodder.
NSW 8th day of doughnuts (10 out of last 12)
3 in quarantine
8000+ tests (reflecting Saturday)
NSW trackers raise concerns after 1 community case in NZ
frednk says
…
You can’t run a war if you don’t have cannon fodder. China does not have cannon fodder.’
Oh, oh. Don’t tell that to Dictator Xi.
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=largest+armies+in+the+world
What odds that the two leaders of the two major parties at the next Federal election do not include Albanese or Morrison ?
BW
For all the reasons you have been raising I think that’s why the Quad is going to be Biden’s approach as well as that of Trump’s administration.
This collision course was set by nationalists on both sides. In the US the nationalists have lost power. In China they are very much in power.
“What odds that the two leaders of the two major parties at the next Federal election do not include Albanese or Morrison ?”
Morrison would have to suffer a medical incident
Goll @ #65 Monday, January 25th, 2021 – 11:16 am
Zero.
Labor has an informal rule that they let the Opposition Leader fight one election before they change them, and the Coalition think they’re on a winner with Scotty from Announceables.
Good answer.
What odds that the two leaders of the two major parties at the next Federal election do not include Albanese or Morrison ?
Not high I expect. Morrison in particular looks secure. Barring a major drop in the polls, I don’t see any change.
Steve Schmidt on point, as usual:
https://youtu.be/JOSLbRmzvXY
lizzie says:
Monday, January 25, 2021 at 11:20 am
Good answer.
To other questions. Was Albanese frustrated by Bill Shorten’s speech yesterday?
Albanese said:
Not at all. Bill Shorten launched a book. Labor party people write books. Labor party people launch books. We’re the party of ideas.
And trying to turn a book into leadershit shows how desperate the Liberals are for traction against Albabese. There will be no early election.
Labor leadershit is just another arrow in the Coalition quiver.
Shellbell @ #65 Monday, January 25th, 2021 – 11:18 am
The Libtards will get a 4th term comfortably with Scrooter at the he
Get over it now.
Move on.
Adjust.
Plant some savoy cabbage for winter.
Albo will hand over the leadership to Gentle Jim.
Who may or may not win the ‘time for a change’ election in 24/25
I was wondering what Google’s monopoly in search implies about their power/reach/control, so went digging a bit. Disclaimer, the following numbers were all found using Google search :P.
In Australia (for one year):
Total ad market: ~16.6B
Online: ~$9B
TV: ~$4B
Newpaper: ~$2.5B
Radio: ~$0.5B
Billboards: ~$1B
Google’s ad revenue: ~$4.3B
They don’t have a monopoly on advertising, not even online.
Do they monopolise internet traffic somehow?
In total, Google covers ~12% of internet traffic (measured in bytes). Also, regarding our news sites, for example: ~36% of traffic to abc.net.au is directed there by search, for news.com.au it’s ~20%, smh.com.au is at ~32%, guardian.co.uk is at ~20% . Wikipedia, interestingly, is at ~80%.
So they don’t have some kind of monopoly power over directing internet traffic to our news sites. Most of it bypasses Google entirely. The strawman of “learning to use the internet without Google search” is apparently something the vast majority of people are already well practiced at :P. One might be forgiven for thinking the whole “Google are trying to shock us but we’re not shocked, haha how weak are they” shtick is one of those kabuki theatre things Bob Carr loves.
It appears Australia loves the whole david vs goliath, being the underdog, punching above our weight concept, regardless of how accurate it is. Gets us pumped up or something. Ozzy Ozzy Ozzy!
What they do have is some of the most visited websites (but hardly enough to eclipse everyone else in aggregate) and a monopoly on Search. So what? What is that actually relevant to? The government and our news industry are after Google’s ad money, citing their monopoly in Search, when that does not even translate into the kind of control over internet users they claim Google has.
Morrison did just enough during 2020 to persuade business and his loyal voters to support him. Now he’s established his pandemic credentials, he’s reverted to type, knowing that people don’t easily change their minds. Only a very big shock will do it.
The sort of thing that would cause a major drop in Morrison’s poll ratings and a possible leadership change would be stuff we really don’t want to happen: a major Covid outbreak; a big stuff-up with the vaccine rollout; possibly stuffing up the Covid recovery with a surge in bankruptcies and unemployment as the Government returns to Thatcherite type. Normal scandals, corruption and incompetence will be successfully covered up and/or blamed on someone else, with the collusion of most of the media.
Shellbell @ #67 Monday, January 25th, 2021 – 8:18 am
Heart implant? Brain? Is it possible to inject him with integrity?
Any of those will see him become such a different person. He’ll first lose the leadership, then pre-selection for Cook, and finally his membership of the Liberal Party as the LNP will never allow anyone even remotely human to be a member, let alone a candidate.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/labor-leadership-joel-fitzgibbon-weighs-in-on-bill-shorten-anthony-albanese/news-story/34f684e2a9dacca76f85e2e8aee9ca87
Now Fitzgibbon front and centre.
Little doubt this is a co-ordinated effort from the leaders of the Labor right to destabilise Albanese.
C@tmomma,
I’d agree a lack of labor leadership is an arrow in the coalitions quiver.
WTF was Albo attacking about this morning? the difference between march and april?
How bout he gets on the front foot about the economy. That ships going sideways.
Comments are that Morrison lied. Brandis did not go into quarantine. Diplomats don’t have to.
lizzie @ #76 Monday, January 25th, 2021 – 11:29 am
Or … just possibly … some opposition.
So if we preclude variable “hit by a bus” scenarios, I’d realistically say non-zero but unlikely. Morrison definitely isn’t going anywhere. He’s managed to pull the Coalition together under his leadership and demonstrate his ability to win elections. Albanese is unlikely to go anywhere either as the incentive to challenge him isn’t there. Labor need to be in a really dire polling deficit, which they’re not. Or the Government needs to be unpopular, yet it’s not translating into a polling increase for Labor (that’s where little questions like PPM and party/leader ratings come in.) This isn’t the case right now either, as the government seems to be met with modestly good approval.
If there are potential leadership challengers in the wings, they know it’s better to keep their powder dry right now – even if it means losing the next election.
“Morrison would have to suffer a medical incident”
Morrison is an ongoing medical incident
lizzie @ #74 Monday, January 25th, 2021 – 11:29 am
Like a kick-arse Labor leader who exposes him for the empty suit he is.
Rational Leftist @ #81 Monday, January 25th, 2021 – 11:42 am
Albo has earned his birthright to lead Labor to an election defeat.
So in NSW (population 8 million) on the anniversary of the first cases here:
(a) either a little over or under 5,000 cases (depending on whether NSW counts the 189 Ruby staff);
(b) 54 or 56 deaths depending on a little overlap with Qld (and two deaths since August 2020);
(c) about 4.7 million tests. More than both Austria and Switzerland which have slightly higher populations and over 900,000 cases between them.
He came back for meetings here in Australia, like many other heads of mission. He did not take the place of any other Australian. He got on the same plane that anyone else would.
So…
1. Brandis got on the same plane as everyone else did. EXCEPT, Brandis was guaranteed a seat to come back when HE wanted to. Plus I bet he came back in First Class on the same plane as everyone else did.
2. WHERE did Brandis quarantine, if in fact he did at all? Was he given another one of these ‘off book’ waivers to quarantine with the family he SO wanted to be with.
3. Again, Brandis may have been on the same plane as other returning Aussies but he was given preferential treatment that very few other Aussies are getting.
4. I bet Brandis believes, he has a right to be a member of the unaccountable elite you know! 🙂
DP
“Morrison would have to suffer a medical incident
Heart implant? Brain? Is it possible to inject him with integrity?”
You are ruling out heart attack or brain aneurysm
Goll @ #65 Monday, January 25th, 2021 – 11:16 am
Write your own ticket.
Morrison is a lock and so is Albanese.
The Labor right are playing the long game to the 2025 election. They will ensure an Albanese loss which will clear the way for their preferred candidate – one of Chalmers Bowen Marles Shorten.
One thing that Morrison has successfully done that Turnbull, Gillard and Rudd II failed to do was sell the “hard reset” of the government; that the change in leadership means a new government, not just continuity of the last one with a different captain at the helm (and some policy priority differences.)
When people talk of the Morrison Government, they treat it as one that’s two years old and still full of fresh ideas, despite the fact the Coalition has been in power for over seven years now. That’s why the timid “wait our turn” strategy isn’t a good idea because that opportunity might not be for a long time yet.
Shellbell
A good set of numbers. The state governments of whatever colour have done a good job, IMO.
“Suppose within the girdle of these walls
Are now confined two mighty monarchies,
Whose high uprearèd and abutting fronts
The perilous narrow ocean parts asunder”
Shakespeare’s Henry V Prologue
No need to adjust Mundo, just wondering, interested that no one suggests a chance, even if “the perilous narrow ocean parts asunder”.
Who in just twelve months would have predicted the ascendancy of the state Premiers to their now lofty heights.
I still maintain that the majority of those apportioned voting obligations just don’t care, even if radical change were to inflict itself into the political landscape.
My question to Albanese would be, “why bother ?”
Morrison has a soul as deep as the nine layers surrounding his human form, although it would not surprise to find him to be a freak with say twelve layers!
BW
Qld is the best (mild splutter)
For an idea of the future of political discourse in case you missed it.
Like here grabbing hold of the desperate straw of the Google legislation not looking good for Murdoch.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2021/01/16/fox-news-viewership-plummets-first-time-behind-cnn-and-msnbc-in-two-decades/
Danama Papers @ #78 Monday, January 25th, 2021 – 11:30 am
Neither are possible. Both would reject him.
I just finished watching what has been a really good new series on Stan – “It’s a Sin”. It is set in the UK in the eighties and nineties when AIDS first came onto the scene.
I can thoroughly recommend it.
boer
It is very constricting to rational discussion that we can’t talk of the realities of human settlement without raising questions about the place of Aborigines in this land.
One of the books which does the most to actually undermine the ‘Aborigines living in harmony with nature’ meme is ‘Dark Emu’.
It’s a Catch 22, or at least it’s framed that way.
Either Aborigines lived in harmony with nature, living lightly on the land and causing minimal impact on the environment.
Or
Aborigines actively managed the landscape, altering the ‘natural’ order for their own ends.
In reality, this should be irrelevant to any discussion of how our indigenous people should be treated.
Aborigines were human beings, and thus, like other human beings, impacted on the environment. If you were a eucalypt tree, you’d see their impact as positive. If you were megafauna, probably not.
Note, I have never used the words ‘hunted to extinction’ when discussing megafauna (or any fauna). I have simply observed that one of the markers of human occupation of any bit of land is extinction of native fauna.
Correlation IS causation when the correlation is basically 100%.
For Morrison to remain leader at the upcoming federal election depends on how many members of the public are gullible and accept that it is good for Australia that Morrison is a clone of Trump .