Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 47, Coalition 44, undecided 8

Another federal poll produces another respectable result for Labor, belying chatter about threats to Anthony Albanese’s leadership.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes one of the pollster’s quarterly dumps of its accumulated voting intention results, amounting to six new data points going back to early November. The latest of these, based on its most recent survey of 1092 respondents, is even more eye-catching than Newspoll in recording a Labor lead. The results bear the usual idiosyncrasies of Essential’s post-2019 election voting intention practices, in that the undecided are not excluded from the published figures on either primary vote and two-party preferred, and the latter is determined by using respondent-allocated preferences for minor party and independent voters who indicate a preference and previous election flows for those who don’t.

Had the undecided been excluded, the latest results would have been Coalition 40.2%, Labor 38.0%, Greens 10.9% and One Nation 3.3%, with Labor leading 51.6-48.4 on two-party preferred. However, the other five sets of results published for November through to mid-January show that the pollster has a quality (I believe it should be regarded as such) that Newspoll lacks, namely the normal variability that random samples of around 1000 respondents should naturally produce. So the mid-January result with the undecided excluded showed a quite different result, with the Coalition leading 51.6-48.4.

Over the longer term, the pollster finds the two parties to be evenly matched, which suggests the series is a little more favourable to Labor than Newspoll, but not greatly so. For the results in detail, observe the pollster’s full report or my BludgerTrack poll aggregate facility, which is updated with the new data on both the poll tracker and poll data table.

The poll also tackles the question of an early election, which respondents were dubious about, with 58% agreeing it would “just be opportunism for the Prime Minister to call an early election” compared with 42% who favour the alternative that an election would be “good for Australia, because a lot has changed since the last election”. I’m not completely sure myself what was gained here by not just asking respondents straight up if they wanted an early election or not.

Also featured are results on COVID-19, which find the federal government continuing to score high marks for its response, with 67% rating it good (steady since late November) and poor by 14% (down one). The small sample results for the state governments are likewise consistently high, with changes since November landing within their wide margins of error. New South Wales is down five to 71%, Victoria is up one to 61% (it was mostly in the high forties from the onset of the outbreak in July through to an upswing in November) and Queensland is up six to 78%, while the particularly small samples for Western Australia and South Australia produce results of 80% in each case, respectively down three (this was conducted before Perth’s lockdown began on Monday) and up ten.

The poll also finds 44% would favour their state governments being in charge of vaccine rollouts compared with 38% for the federal government, and most express confidence the rollout will be conducted efficiently and safely.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,763 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 47, Coalition 44, undecided 8”

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  5. I think it is wise of Albanese to spend as much time in Queensland, Specifically the Brisbane region as much as possible, this is where the next election will be won and lost.
    Think Longman, Forde, Brisbane, Petrie…

  6. nath

    Will no one else plead on my behalf? Who else can bring the sort of wit and firepower that I can deploy? It’s a poorer place without the Great Man. Sad.

    As you once said, you and I had a certain frisson, and sometimes I was happy to go along with your japes and misdirections, even contributing an abstract for the nath conference, and agreeing to chair a session.

    But, there was a time when you were extremely derogatory about our inestimable and erudite host, William, god of PB. You may not remember what you said, and I am not going to repeat it, because it was nasty. But I have never forgotten it.

    William, to his credit, did not confine you to purgatory because of that, he is a reasonable god, but your other mischievous activities, are held to the same standards as other posters: Thou shalt not be a sock puppet; Thou shall not troll the blog with such fervour as to disrupt reasonable dialogue between other participants.

    So, my guess is that William will let you out of purgatory when you make posts that make a genuine contribution to the conversation, without the ad hominem slurs, and the attempts to derail sensible conversation.

    Of course, I should not be the one to cast the first stone.

  7. Bushfire Bill, thank you for the two Scaramucci links. It was worth hearing about the inner Trump, and that Scaramucci is an optimist about the USA. Some of the other things he said, which jumped out:
    * Trump voters are preservationists, not conservatives.
    * Trump voters are desperational, not aspirational. (and that this needs fixing)
    * The USA is 50 states with a single currency.
    * All relationships end badly with Trump.

    Thanks again. I might have to listen to them a second time.

  8. I like Wombats.

    Harry the hairy nosed wombat is one my most favourite books.

    Other great books:

    Robert the Rose Horse

    Little Richard goes whumping

  9. I am up late for various (ARC) reasons, but will make a comment before turning in.

    Blogs like this one are one of the few places where the internet works well.

    People come here and exchange views, interact with each other, and go away thoughtful, whether minds are changed or not.

    So, this blog is more important than people participating may realise, and it is a real tragedy that William cannot monetarise the blog, as Google and Facebook have done.

    In a recent study, it was found that:

    1) Facebook and YouTube quickly send people who consume their content down partisan rabbit holes – they make people more divided and partisan.

    2) Twitter has no influence on the people who use it and consume content.

    3) Interactive blogs like Reddit allow people to exchange ideas, and discuss nuance, and people and to come out of these blog discussions less partisan and more open to ideas.

    William is providing all of us who are active participants, and the many lurkers, a valuable service – a blog where we may interact with the possibility of bringing us closer together in this politically fractured world.

    I hope we all show our appreciation in the best way we can, by either donating, or trying to make reasonable contributions to the discussion here.

  12. According to the Anti-Defamation Commission’s chairman Dvir Abramovich, a shocked onlooker phoned Victoria Police and was later called back and told there was nothing they could do as it was not against the law to wear a swastika.
    …”Australian Nazis should not be allowed to intimidate anyone, and it is simply unacceptable to think that in Melbourne, neo-Nazi thugs have a license to openly brandish this symbol of extermination and evil, knowing full well that Victoria Police is powerless to stop them,” he said.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/shocked-man-photographed-wearing-swastika-armband-at-melbourne-market

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