Battle stations

A lift in the tempo of federal preselection activity finds one Liberal MP out the door and another likely to follow.

First up, note the new post below on the Western Australian state election campaign. To the matter at hand: as talk proliferates of a federal election later this year, there has been a noticeable uptick on the volume of preselection news to report.

• A Liberal preselection for the eastern Melbourne seat of Menzies last weekend produced a boilover with the defeat of Kevin Andrews, who has held the seat since 1991. Andrews lost the local party ballot by a 181-111 margin to Keith Wolahan, a barrister and former army officer. Wolahan was reckoned to have enough support locally to have knocked over Andrews ahead of the 2019 election, but was thwarted when the state party organisation took charge of the entire federal election preselection process, much to the chagrin of the membership. Wolahan had support from factional moderates but took to Andrew Bolt’s program on Sky News to push back against the notion that he personally could be so described, and put it to Virginia Trioli of the ABC that he “never joined the Liberal Party to be called a moderate and very few people do in Victoria”.

• It appears increasingly likely that controversial Liberal MP Craig Kelly will be bumped aside for preselection in his Sydney seat of Hughes by Kent Johns, who had the numbers locally in both 2016 and 2019 but was saved on both occasions by prime ministerial intervention. The Australian reported on Friday that Nationals MPs, apparently including Queensland Senator Matt Canavan, wished to recruit Kelly to the party, apparently with a view to him seeking re-election in his entirely suburban electorate. However, a Nationals source was quoted saying this “wouldn’t happen while Michael McCormack is leader”.

Nine News reports New South Wales Deputy Premier and state Nationals leader John Barilaro is considering a move to the Senate. The Coalition arrangement in New South Wales gives the Nationals second and third positions on the Senate ticket at alternating elections, with the next election being the party’s turn for the unloseable second spot. The party’s position is vacant because one of its two Senators elected at the 2016 double dissolution, Fiona Nash, lost her position amid the Section 44 fiasco in December 2017 and it was won on a countback by a Liberal, Jim Molan. Molan lost his seat after being reduced to fourth position at the 2019 election but returned to the Senate upon filling Arthur Sinodinos’s vacancy in November 2019. Since he is now 69, he is presumably set to retire. The Liberals’ first and third positions on the ticket will presumably remain with the incumbents, Marise Payne and Connie Fierravanti-Wells.

• With the retirement of Labor veteran Warren Snowdon, Sky News reports his regional Northern Territory electorate of Lingiari is set to be contested for Labor by the former Deputy Chief Minister, Marion Scrymgour.

• The Northern Territory News reports the Country Liberal Party’s Senator for the Northern Territory, Sam McMahon, may face preselection challenges from Damien Ryan, the mayor of Alice Springs, and Linda Fazldeen, a Darwin businesswoman. The report says the preselection is likely to be held in June or July.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,041 comments on “Battle stations”

Comments Page 19 of 61
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  1. billie,
    Cassandra Goldie seems to me to be one of those people who has worked their way to the top and then embeds themselves in their position, refusing to move on and let someone else have a go who might have more success at achieving the general agenda of the organisation. I get the impression now that when the Coalition see her comments they just ignore them because she hasn’t been able to persuade any government to implement her calls thus far.

  2. c@t

    If the repugs don’t convict Trump for his role in the insurrection, the GOP will ultimately split into two parties.
    Therefore it would be in their best interests to do so.
    We shall see if sanity prevails.

  3. It shouldn’t take long to debunk this defence – many of Trump’s MAGA supporters would not have the ability to know what “speaking figuratively” means.

    ‘Political theatre’: Trump lawyers reveal impeachment trial defence

    Donald Trump’s lawyers argue that he was only speaking figuratively when urging his supporters to “fight like hell” against the election result.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/political-theatre-trump-lawyers-reveal-impeachment-trial-defence-20210209-p570qg.html

  4. Vic,
    There will be >5 of the already announced repugs that will vote to convict but I don’t think it will make it past the 60 threshold to keep Trump from running again in 2024.

  5. Vic:

    Republicans are in a good position to regain the House and Senate in 2022. I can’t see them splitting, if anything they’ll stay united and focused on the end goal. Something they seem much more adept at doing than Democrats.

  6. citizen @ #465 Tuesday, February 9th, 2021 – 9:36 am

    It shouldn’t take long to debunk this defence – many of Trump’s MAGA supporters would not have the ability to know what “speaking figuratively” means.

    ‘Political theatre’: Trump lawyers reveal impeachment trial defence

    Donald Trump’s lawyers argue that he was only speaking figuratively when urging his supporters to “fight like hell” against the election result.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/political-theatre-trump-lawyers-reveal-impeachment-trial-defence-20210209-p570qg.html

    Wouldn’t that line of defense totally devalue anything he says into the future? Isn’t the force of a leader’s word supposed to be what motivates the troops? So if Trump pleads that all his words are just fairy floss and meaningless essentially?…

  7. C@t
    “There will be >5 of the already announced repugs that will vote to convict but I don’t think it will make it past the 60 threshold to keep Trump from running again in 2024.”

    Is it 60 or 67? If the latter, it’s even tougher to get a conviction.

  8. ‘fess,
    The Dems are learning fast. You just have to look to the Georgia result and the Biden landslide, and the states he flipped.

  9. Kakuru @ #469 Tuesday, February 9th, 2021 – 9:42 am

    C@t
    “There will be >5 of the already announced repugs that will vote to convict but I don’t think it will make it past the 60 threshold to keep Trump from running again in 2024.”

    Is it 60 or 67? If the latter, it’s even tougher to get a conviction.

    Sorry, you’re correct. I was thinking about a filibuster-proof majority. 🙂

  10. billie

    I have such a small pension from super that if it’s taxed it will make a huge difference to me. Would be nice to think that if they tax it, there is a lower limit. Just dreamin!

    I have been very disappointed in ACOSS for several years, in that they tend to agree with the government so much. I’ve wondered whether they are afraid they will be left outside the tent altogether.

  11. [‘Thank you, Mavis, for coming to my defense. ‘]

    Cat, this may sound sexist but I draw a line when it comes to the gratuitous abuse of female posters; males, not so much, though I’m generally reactive in this regard. I was raised to respect women and I’m too old to change. I could be wrong but I’ve never seen any Goliath posts before. And it’s certainly within realms that he/she is a regular poster who on this occasion chose an unfamiliar name and possibly a different ISP address, which in my strong view is gutless. Anyway, keep up the good fight & don’t let it get you down.

  12. C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, February 9, 2021 at 9:24 am
    Mavis @ #439 Tuesday, February 9th, 2021 – 8:23 am

    Goliath:

    Tuesday, February 9, 2021 at 8:15 am

    It’s not even dark yet and up comes this:

    [‘Your pot is, as usual, a boiling stew of bullshit, you creepy, frustrated, pathetic old dreg.’]

    Not at all nice and it’s ageist and sexist.

    And I wonder who it was that appears to be too afraid to comment with a nom I might instantly recognise? Could it have been nath Michael/Goliath, or that Andrew Gold character who also seems fixated on me? Or just some sexist, ageist lurker?

    I also note that the commenter appears to tacitly agree that LvT/ESJ has the absolute right to call me a ‘Backdoor Betty’ and a lush. Both of which things are patently untrue and slanderous if we could pin down who ESJ/LvT actually is.

    Nevertheless I will cast that post aside as meaningless and simply mean, as are so many others directed towards women with strong opinions on the internet.

    Thank you, Mavis, for coming to my defense. ??

    ———————————

    Nah, not me, although you got what you deserve.

  13. zoomster @ #883 Tuesday, February 9th, 2021 – 5:53 am

    Listened to various Nationals this morning baying that they won’t be part of any emissions targets without seeing ‘the plan’.

    Apparently they’re not in government, and couldn’t possibly have input to ‘the plan’ themselves….

    Of course if the Government did the modelling that it says it hasn’t, the situation would be much clearer to them.

  14. I think its 67 senators to convict and a simple majority for barring Trump from running for office again which, from what I understand, will be a separate vote

    Cheers

  15. Nah, not me, although you got what you deserve.

    Because your rap sheet is absolutely spotless. Not.
    Sorry, but I tend not to take my advice from hypocrites.

  16. boerwar @ #875 Tuesday, February 9th, 2021 – 7:15 am

    Thank you, BK.

    As noted above this issue has the potential to be a seat-changer. Pala seems to have somewhat the same view:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-09/queensland-counter-terrorism-unit-head-to-lead-youth-taskforce/13134558

    Thanks for posting. I note:
    * People in the stolen vehicle have been charged with theft related offenses.
    * The vigilante driving the chase car has been charged with murder.
    * Fighting youth crime has been elevated to the stature of fighting terrorism.

  17. C@tmommasays:

    And I wonder who it was that appears to be too afraid to comment with a nom I might instantly recognise? Could it have been nath Michael/Goliath
    ________________________
    Not me either. I’m usually very nice to C@t.

  18. Victoria @ #903 Tuesday, February 9th, 2021 – 8:36 am

    c@t

    If the repugs don’t convict Trump for his role in the insurrection, the GOP will ultimately split into two parties.
    Therefore it would be in their best interests to do so.
    We shall see if sanity prevails.

    The 90% pro versus 10% anti ratio is important. (The ratio is something like that.) The possible outcomes are that the 10% will be purged or that they are re-educated and survive inside the GOP. If they are purged the Romney/Cheney group might start a new party or fade away, but both seem unlikely. More likely is they or their followers will end up in the Democrat tent. (I think one of the Lincoln Project guys already changed to become a Democrat.) In that scenario I think it would be fair to say that the USA as a whole will have taken a step to the right, and the current step to the left will be short-lived. (Maybe Biden knows this and it’s part of why he is working so quickly to see how far he can move things.)

    The impeachment trial itself will be entertaining, but the names attached to final vote will be the important bit.

  19. As regards Trump escaping a guilty impeachment verdict, there appears to be some hope with Section 3 of the XIV Amendment were it to be invoked:

    [‘No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any state, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any state legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any state, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof…’]

    Whereas a finding of guilt by the Senate requires a two-thirds majority in an impeachment proceeding, perhaps a simple majority by the Senate and the Reps would be enough to invoke the instant section. But even if that’s so, the SCOTUS may determine that this would breach the double jeopardy rule? Far neater if the Senate convicts him.

  20. Shellbell’s linked article is a good read (aside the fun if questionable neck tie from codpiece paragraph). The article is principally about dress codes and their enforcement, in an age of cultural assimilations, and where fashion is worth questioning for its latent intents.

    I’ve been invited to a galah music night this week, with a dress code of “lounge suit/cocktail.” It is, I imagine, an attempt to make it ‘special’. I was always taught that appropriate dress was important, that the collective appearance was of relevance. You dressed to go to church, to school, to festive events, weddings, funerals, even in the old days to go to ‘town’, days when there was a street photographer in Macquarie Street to catch the glamorous at their best.

    But the use of dress to enforce superiority (judges, I’m looking at you) and/or engender attributes (doctors I’m looking at you) is nothing if not debatable. That said, believe me, in Medicine how you present is more than of passing relevance.

    I’ve no problem with dress codes in some general form. In the case of the upcoming concert, I don’t particularly wish to be confined to a lounge suit, or a cocktail dress for that matter, but think if anything, the dress code should be “evening”. And that said, my interpretation isn’t that lounge suit is lounge suit per se. I’m thinking more something like a Kilt. Or breeches, with a Codpiece.

    (https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2021/feb/08/the-phallic-necktie-is-an-outdated-symbol-of-white-male-rule-in-new-zealands-parliament)

  21. ItzaDream, Shellbell, on attire and the signals it sends. I believe (without proof) that this is why masks have become so contentious in some parts of the world.

  22. Whilst saddened by them I choose not to engage or respond to the personal attacks on me from c@t or bushfire bill.

    On other news the republicans claimed victory in NY22. So only 6 seats in it. One way or another by retirement or defeat Pelosis disastrous reign will end within 2 years maximum.

  23. Stephen Koukoulas
    @TheKouk
    · 29m
    I find it extraordinary that the Morrison government does not have a plan, a strategy, a policy agenda, to get full employment in Australia.

    How can he? He lives from day to day to photographic opportunity. The unemployed are not always photogenic.

  24. “On other news the republicans claimed victory in NY22. So only 6 seats in it. One way or another by retirement or defeat Pelosis disastrous reign will end within 2 years maximum.”

    On other news, LVT doesn’t know much about US politics.

    Pelosi has already stated she will retire after this term.

    Rampant gerrymandering has skewed the House of Reps massively toward the GOP. It was always going to be difficult for the Dems to hang on to their mid-term gains. The fact that they defeated a first-term president AND have a majority in both houses of Congress is quite an achievement, given how the electoral landscape is stacked against them.

  25. Kakuru I don’t claim any special expertise re US politics.

    Theres a certain conceit for any Australian to provide expert commentary on the us – most of which is gleaned from reading us media and at best a handful of visits to the us of a.

    The intricacies of the us system does hold some sway , mystique or appeal for political hacks in this country.

  26. With Micronesian nations out, there will be no countries in the Pacific Islands Forum north of the equator.

    Three of the Pacific states who have left – Palau, FSM, and the Marshall Islands – are closely allied to the United States, in compacts of free association with Washington.

    Kiribati has recently ‘flipped’ its formal diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to mainland China, leading to concerns over an increased presence and influence of Beijing over the massive archipelago.

    Nauru, a former Australian colony, remains closely hewn to Canberra and dependent on its financial support.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/09/pacific-islands-forum-in-crisis-as-one-third-of-member-nations-quit

  27. KayJay

    Wish me luck. Today I’m to drink the ghastly 3 litres of colonoscopy prep. As I’m not a beer drinker, drinking 250 mls of bitterness each 15 mins is beyond me, but I’ll do my best (and please don’t report me if I can’t finish it all by 9 am tomorrow!)

  28. Goliath is not Goll !!!
    But the language and expressions seem very familiar, rather typical of a bogan with small headlights and a fragile ego.
    Hopefully our goliath will return to his cubby house.

  29. lizzie
    My deepest sympathy lizzie. Having done that several times I really do ‘feel your pain’. The mere thought of that lemon flavor makes me shudder.

  30. My understanding is that 67 percent of senate present for vote is required to convict.
    In other words, if not all senators are present for the vote, there is every chance they can meet the threshold.

    Also can the vote be a secret one?

  31. poroti

    This is my third time. I suppose I should be grateful that the gov is so protective of my health, but I’m more nervous of the liquid than before. Probably because I don’t eat large meals now and the quantity is bloody frightening.

  32. Bu
    “I’m surprised that the Guardian is so inaccurate. Nauru was a German colony, not Australian.”

    It was both, at different times. After WWI, Nauru passed from Germany to Australia (plus NZ and UK) as a joint League of Nations mandate.

  33. Lizzie

    I find the lemony flavour not to be a distraction.

    On the other side, avoid requesting your support person take you to a pizzeria

  34. lizzie @ #505 Tuesday, February 9th, 2021 – 11:14 am

    poroti

    This is my third time. I suppose I should be grateful that the gov is so protective of my health, but I’m more nervous of the liquid than before. Probably because I don’t eat large meals now and the quantity is bloody frightening.

    We are allowed, in NSW, to mix a few bubbles of lemonade in ours, or some cordial. It makes it go down easier.

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