YouGov: 60-40 to Labor in Dawesville

One of the few public polls of the WA election campaign suggests the Liberals will be looking for a new leader on Monday.

The West Australian today carries results of a YouGov poll of 400 respondents in Zak Kirkup’s seat of Dawesville, pointing to a blowout Labor lead of 60-40 in a seat Kirkup retained for the Liberals on his debut in 2017 by 0.7%. Labor is credited with 55% of the primary vote, compared with 33.5% in 2017; Liberal with 33%, down from 36.7%; One Nation with 2%, well down from 9.3%; and the Greens with 3%, down from 4.4%. This is apparently at odds with Labor internal polling, which according to the report has party strategists thinking Kirkup will “probably hang on”.

Seventy-nine per cent of respondents reported a positive view of Mark McGowan, with only 12% negative, while Kirkup’s numbers were respectively 44% and 34%. The poll was a “live telephone survey” conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday. The accompanying report notes that “since 2019, YouGov has not used robo-telephone calls because they tended to be answered predominantly by older people”.

Other news:

• The Liberal campaign appears to be reaching an inauspicious conclusion after Shadow Treasurer Sean L’Estrange fronted the media yesterday to spruik an accountancy firm’s costings of the party’s policies, only to be presented with a series of questions about funding black holes that he appeared unable to answer. The West Australian’s editorial today rated it as “arguably the worst financial presentation Australian politics has seen” in three decades.

• The Liberal candidate for Albany, Scott Leary, appeared to suggest during an ABC Radio interview yesterday that a rape allegation against Christian Porter had been timed to influence the state election, an assertion Zak Kirkup conceded was “inappropriate”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

18 comments on “YouGov: 60-40 to Labor in Dawesville”

  1. My main question ATM is which state Liberal will front the TV coverage tomorrow? Honey and Mettam might be the only ones not worried about being Kierathed.

    L’estrange can’t answer a question without deferring or saying it’s not his responsibility.

  2. Is Kirkup’s early concession an attempt to shore-up his position as Opposition Leader for the next term so he can have another go? Risky strategy if so. I think his concession that he won’t become Premier reduces his “pulling power” and could be the difference in him winning and losing his own seat.

  3. Nice, I got $100 at $1.30 for ALP to win Dawesville. The bookmakers have no idea of how to price seats until the money starts to flow.
    Also I got over $4000 on safe ALP seats at ranges from $1.05 to $1.10. People say why bother but it is better than bank interest.

  4. Conversely, if you concede you aren’t going to win you draw away from the people who might vote for you locally as it would be nice to be represented by the Premier.

    As always, thanks William for the efforts with the site, will be watching tomorrow evening with great interest.

  5. Western Australians are increasingly asking if Sean L’Estrange tanked the costings press conference to ensure that Kirkup loses in Dawesville thereby giving L’Estrange one fewer competitors for the Liberal leadership after the election.

  6. ladbrokes are still offering $1.50 for Dawesville. I agree wit B.S. Fairman the bookies do struggle with political markets…. but then again maybe there is plenty of ‘mug’ money out there that allows them to balance up?

  7. I am in Darling ranges and have been polled 6 times over the last 3 weeks.
    The focus of the last two polls was very clear. McGowans arrogance was last week and that the current labor candidate doesn’t live in the area and was chosen by the unions.
    The current member is seen as very effective but I have heard a lot about her push against border closures and her plans to promote an activity park in Byford as being negatives for many voters.

  8. Scott Leary’s reported comments in Albany is the stuff espoused by desperate people. As previously reported, this whole matter with Christian Porter had been reported to the previous PM and other Federal Parliamentarians. Scott Leary’s assertion that Labor conjured up the release of this information to somehow jeopardise the Liberal Party’s chances is laughable at best.
    I for one will not judge Christian Porter, and would like to say that this is a very sad matter for all concerned. To use it as a matter for political expediency is very low indeed.

  9. “apparently at odds with Labor internal polling” Or with what Labor are saying about their internal polling so as to cancel out any sympathy-for-the-underdog effect?

  10. After Kalamunda, Sportbet has Forrestfield as the most likely Liberal gain (5-1, horribly long odds but the pickings are slim). That’s substantially better odds than the Nats have in Geraldton and the sameodds the Libs have in Hillarys.

    Any sense why this would be so?

  12. 66-34 you say? Which I believe if uniform would reduce the Libs to 3 and the Nats to 4.

    I do recall – as much as such things are meaningful – the last time a big swing was on (Victoria 2018) the final polls underestimated the Labor vote by 2 to 3 points.

  13. Jacob Kagi also reporting on Twitter that the early vote and postal count as of today is 775,000 out of 1.7 million registered voters. When you take into account that around 10% of those on the roll won’t vote and a few more postals will trickle in looks like just over half the electorate will have voted early.

  16. Good luck to WA Labor tomorrow. No doubt Newscorpse will try to spin it that after a 68/32 poll losing an election by 30 seats is some kind of pyrrhic victory.

    I wonder how they will choose the Liberal speaker for election night coverage and Insiders on Sunday. Short straws?

  18. So this poll indicates the Green vote is holding up (immaterial to the outcome) but the Nat vote is down substantially (their vote is small but highly concentrated).

    If the Nst vote actually played out like this (and I don’t think it will because of the dangers of polling smaller parties) they would be at risk of losing everything.

    Oh and if the result is uniform the primaries in Vasse will be Lib 37, Lab 35, Grn 14 and Nat 12ish. With a couple of points.of rounding error. That would probably be a Lib wun of about 52-48 and if they’re winning Vasse by 4 points well.. wither the Liberals.

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