An election eve Newspoll in The Australian tips that the result in tomorrow’s Western Australian state election will be, unless I’m missing something big, the most lopsided in Australian history, with Labor leading 66-34 on two-party preferred, only slightly down from 68-32 a fortnight ago (compared with 64.2-35.8 at the New South Wales election in 2011, historically the biggest two-party blowout that comes to mind). The primary votes are Labor 57%, compared with 59% a fortnight ago and 42.2% at the 2017 election; Liberal 23%, unchanged on a fortnight ago and down from 31.2% in 2017; Nationals 3%, up one and down from 5.4%; Greens 9%, up one and essentially unchanged from 8.9%; and One Nation 2%, down one and down from 4.9% (with the usual qualification that they don’t contest every seat, which likewise applies to the Nationals).
Mark McGowan’s personal ratings are exactly unchanged on 88% approval and 10% disapproval, which I would be very surprised if they weren’t the best ratings ever recorded by a leader on the eve of an Australian election. The exposure of an election campaign has reduced Zak Kirkup’s uncommitted rating from 30% to 19%, but this isn’t particularly to his advantage, which his approval rating up three to 32% but his disapproval up eight to 49%. McGowan’s lead as preferred premier nonetheless narrows a bit, from 83-10 to 79-13.
Further questions find 87% expecting Labor to win the election compared with 8% of the Liberals, with 22% of Liberal voters supremely optimistic and 2% of Labor voters correspondingly pessimistic. Given a choice between the proposition that it was “important to have a strong majority government in Western Australia to lead the state’s recovery” and that it was “important to have many opposition members in parliament so we have strong checks and balances”, 51% opted for the former and 41% for the latter, with a strong partisan effect evident.
The poll was conducted online last Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1015; if accurate it will bear out the most apocalyptic assessments of the Liberals’ prospects and cast doubt upon the conclusion to my paywalled piece from Crikey today:
Talk of an over-mighty Labor government running amok also plays on suggestions the Liberals could emerge with as few as four of the 59 seats in the lower house, encouraged by last fortnight’s Newspoll result, which had the Labor primary vote on a gobsmacking 59%. Such a result would raise the possibility of the Liberals losing official
opposition status to the Nationals, who currently hold five mostly safe seats. However, the view on both sides of the fence is that the Liberals’ plea for mercy has at least been effective enough to spare them that humiliation, if little else.
For those of you have made it all the way down here, do take note of the post below this one which promotes this site’s various WA election activities and asks you for money.
Please let Nedlands and/or South Perth fall for labor.
Surely not.
Hey, _if_ it’s going to be that*, is it OK if I hope the swing is particuarly focused in Liberal seats, and they lose Churchlands as well (L’Estrange sounds like he deserves it)? And Cottesloe is too close to call on the night?
* There’s no way it’s going to be that. It can’t be.
I’ve thought for a while that the Nats will win Kalgoorlie (truly the Bass of WA politics) but I wonder if just enough Lib voters throw a preference to Labor because “goodness hasnt our Mark done a good job with the borders” Labor might sneak through and win
Also is this the first time that a party leader has called an election before Antony?
I’m not convinced those 5 Nat seats are safe. Newspoll thinks their vote will halve, compared to the last election. For the nats, you can’t look at it as ‘a uniform swing of -2.4%. They don’t have 2.4% to lose in most seats, so they’ve got to lose a lot more than 2.4% in the seats they do well in.
Every election has its own specific points of interest. Tonight will have a degree of morbid fascination – will the disaster for the Liberals be as bad as predicted? Could it be worse? How about the Upper House? Greens!! Not to mention watching the discomfort of whoever fronts up on the TV coverage from the Liberals. Should be an interesting night coming up.
Considering that WA is no longer play thing for the libs, their focus is elsewhere on QLD and NSW.
Good morning Compact Crank, enjoy the rout.
Hoping my friend is elected to parliament today. She’s worked very hard the last year and deserves to win.
Will Ms Gina Rarnheart live in a Labor electorate by nights end???
How lower class could one be???
Just placed another few grand on some fairly safe seats. Even a 1% return in a few days is better than bank interest.
The big worry is that the Labor could gift the balance of power in the upper house to the Shooters as a result of their preference deal with them. It won’t matter how large Labor’s majority in the lower house is if they are forced to spend the next four years enacting the far-right agenda of the crazy gun nutters in order to get anything past the upper house.
If you are a progressive left winger, the solution is simple; vote 1 Greens. By doing so you will make your vote more valuable – if the Green candidate doesn’t win, your vote will still flow through to Labor. On the other hand, if you were to make the mistake of voting 1 Labor, if their candidate doesn’t get up your vote could end up going to the Shooters instead.
If you intend on voting for Labor in the upper house, vote Greens instead to maximize your vote and protect WA from people who want to water down gun laws. Make sure progressives are in the balance of power for the next four years or else Labor’s big majority won’t mean anything.
WA election day arrives as Labor seeks second term after an unprecedented campaign:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-13/wa-election-day-arrives-after-an-unprecedented-campaign/13240344
Interesting to see the shills for betting companies here.
Has it been like that for long?
Where’s Wayne with his hyper optimistic predictions? 😀
Theo,
Thanks for warning about the right wing nutters in the Greens.
We’ve had the same problem in NSW. Greens get elected to the Legislative Council on Labor preferences and then shortly into their 8 year term they morph into conservative independents – nutters as you call them.
Instead of giving 1st preference to the potential right wing nutters in the Greens, wouldn’t it be better to number below the line and give last preference to the Greens.
If the Greens don’t get elected, it doesn’t matter if they morph into right wing nutters or get into bed with the Liberals.
“Thanks for warning about the right wing nutters in the Greens.”
lol Labor logic! Left wingers are right wingers!
If the Greens are right wingers now, then Labor must be far-right extremists – the new One Nation!
…yeah nah. The reality is that the Greens are middle-left, while Labor are centre-right.
FYI Labor are the ones who frequently team up with the Libs, just like they did to give tax cuts to billionaires.
The real solution to the endless anxieties about where upper house preferences might go is, of course, for WA to abolish the anti-democratic disgrace that is the Group Vote Ticket system, as happened federally in one of the few commendable reforms of the Abbott / Turnbull / Morrison government (which, sadly, Labor refused to support for reasons I still cannot fathom.)
Unfortunately, neither WA Labor nor the WA Greens particularly have the moral high ground when it comes to Legislative Council preferences, though the Shooters & Fishers certainly seem the lesser evil than the anti-vax, science-denying Craig Kelly acolyte the Greens have inexplicably preferenced. Western Australians wanting to avoid giving their vote to either will have to put aside the hour or two necessary to vote below the line – of course, the vast majority of people will not (I loathe GVT with every fiber of my being, and even I would find myself voting above the line in many a pre-2016 election), which is exactly what the bastards who first devised the system intended.
In any case, I’m looking forward to watching what is looking to be a truly specular trouncing of the bad guys tonight.
Theo Andelinisays:
Saturday, March 13, 2021 at 11:49 am
“Thanks for warning about the right wing nutters in the Greens.”
lol Labor logic! Left wingers are right wingers!
If the Greens are right wingers now, then Labor must be far-right extremists – the new One Nation!
———————————————
The greens like to see themselves as left wing. In fact the majority of them are middle class elitists. They adopt left wing language but their actions are mostly right wing.
Could someone tell me if WA counts its pre poll votes after the election day polling has closed, or before then on a continuous basis as the votes come in, day by day?
I remember reading somewhere that WA counts them on the night to ensure no early figures get out before the close of voting. Sec. 134 of the Electoral Act requires that the votes be counted as soon as practicable AFTER the close of the poll.
The Greens issue again…. I am in Sydney too. I miss the more environmentally and social-justiced concerned GreensWA. The Greens here are true watermelons. A red core hiding within a green outside. They are divided between those who are genuine greens and those who are unreconstructed far left. Some see some environmental issues not as environmental issues but as ways to get at business. Others are genuine environmentalists. But they are largely middle class urbanites. Tree Tories as it has been said.
They’ll be left with Nedlands, Cottesloe & Churchlands
Theo…even in opposition, Labor has to consider that it is appealing to the middle ground of Oz politics – wherever the middle ground is perceived to be. The Greens are unlikely to be, at least anywhere in the near to middle term future, anywhere near actually being able to form any kind of government. This gives the Greens scope to dream a bit, pinch votes from Labor and take the moral high ground. Good luck to the Greens, but it is Labor (and unfortunately the LNP) who will form government any time soon. I am no Green hater as a good many of my Labor friends have shifted their vote to the Greens and I have been known to give them my preference from time to time…..
I’d rather vote for Labor and risk the Shooters than vote Green and risk a truly unhinged anti-vaxxer, an elitist tree tory NIMBY or a party that tried to rename itself the National Liberals.
Asha, it’s not inexplicable that the Greens preferenced the anti-vax loon. The simple fact is they got sucked into a Druery preference deal – just as they did in Victoria in 2018. And anti-vax conspiracy theories are not exactly controversial to large sections of the Green base.
Also, we must not forget it is the Greens who are solely responsible for the current upper house malapportionment and that they actually wanted something even worse than the current situation. If the goal is electoral reform, the WA Greens cannot be trusted.
Theo,
Thanks for taking the time to reply to my post.
Fyi, I don’t belong to any political party and I have never belonged to any party with Labor (or Labour) in its name.
My comments about Greens in the NSW Legislative Council relates specifically to the replacement for John Kaye after his death from cancer. You can read about him in wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Kaye_(politician)
John Kaye warned about the risk of the Greens selecting a “right winger” to serve out the remainder of his term.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/john-kayes-widow-intervenes-in-nsw-greens-preselection-fight-20160729-gqgatp.html
Despite the warnings, NSW Greens selected Justin Field to replace John Kaye.
Just after the 2019 NSW State Election, Justin Field quits the Greens to sit as an independent for the next 4 years.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/05/nsw-greens-mp-justin-field-quits-party-to-sit-on-crossbench
Justin seems to fit in quite well on the crossbench with Fred Nile, One Nation and the Shooters.
I am taking my lunch break after handing out “how to votes”for our favourite ALP candidate, Jess Shaw. An elderly lady with a real blue rinse approached me this morning and whispered “I’m a liberal but today I’m voting for you”.
@ Granny Anny
Which booth are you on? I’m at Arbor Grove.
deleted – wrong thread!
Confessions, what electorate are you in? I’m in Dawesville.
I’ve been on the pre-poll every other day, usually with both candidates there. Even with Zak in atttendance it’s been obvious there’s a swing on and as he only holds the seat by 353 votes 1% will do it.
If it really is 60/40 then poor Zak (nice kid btw), is going to have to concede his seat and govt on telly tonight in front of the whole nation. It should be Scott up there.
Grimace – Mt Helena
No one counts pre-poll votes before election day polling closes. Antony Green has lobbied for them to start doing it from 4pm, but the parties don’t like the idea.
I think, as long as you can ensure nothing leaks early, it’s a reasonable idea. Not that what I think matters much.
Rational Leftist @ #32 Saturday, March 13th, 2021 – 3:09 pm
Isn’t that the problem, stopping leaks cannot be guaranteed?
It would be impossible, I would think, to stop results of early prepoll counting leaking.
You’d have to confiscate the scrutineers’ phones for starters.
In my experience in federal polls there isn’t much voting in the late afternoon anyway so the idea that early numbers could change results is debatable.
In any event at some times of year in federal elections counting has been going in the eastern states for three hours before WA polls close.
I don’t think there would be thousands of west Australians holding off voting to get with the trend.
Pretty hectic at our booth up in the north of the metro area. Mainly because the advertising of alternatives has been poor so several booths across the electorate are quiet while the better known ones are very busy.
All pretty friendly and respectful, but this is already a safe Labor seat.
Labor objected to the idea in the JSCEM report because it meant party higher-ups wouldn’t be able to contact the scrutineers, at least in the pre-6pm part of the count.
I imagine the big issue is the difficulties of getting scrutineers at a time where most volunteers will still be busy manning booth. There’s also no way some less-than-scrupulous campaign managers wouldn’t be pressing scrutineers to quietly give them figures, rules be damned. Otherwise, though, I do agree that it’s a good idea.
Asha Leusays:
Saturday, March 13, 2021 at 4:27 pm
I think, as long as you can ensure nothing leaks early, it’s a reasonable idea. Not that what I think matters much.
I imagine the big issue is the difficulties of getting scrutineers at a time where most volunteers will still be busy manning booth. There’s also no way some less-than-scrupulous campaign managers wouldn’t be pressing scrutineers to quietly give them figures, rules be damned. Otherwise, though, I do agree that it’s a good idea.
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I agree with everything others have said. Another problem is finding the experienced electoral staff to conduct the count. The electoral commissions struggle to find enough experienced people to staff the booths on the day.
As someone who has scrutineered for many years I can understand the temptation to leak and the pressure from party officials and journalists that scrutineers would be under.
I’ve posted my results facility, obviously minus results at this stage. I’m reasonably optimistic it will more or less work on this occasion.
https://www.pollbludger.net/wa2021/Results
Asha Leu says:
Saturday, March 13, 2021 at 4:27 pm
“I think, as long as you can ensure nothing leaks early, it’s a reasonable idea. Not that what I think matters much.”
“I imagine the big issue is the difficulties of getting scrutineers at a time where most volunteers will still be busy manning booth. There’s also no way some less-than-scrupulous campaign managers wouldn’t be pressing scrutineers to quietly give them figures, rules be damned. Otherwise, though, I do agree that it’s a good idea.”
I don’t think it matters if it takes a few hours so why count pre-poll votes early. It can’t happen with postals. Perhaps it makes the spectacle of the evening less spectacular but so long as they are counted reasonably promptly I see no issue. The result will be the result.
From what I have seen at our booth the stories about youngsters strongly favouring Labor seem to be correct.
Roaldan @ #35 Saturday, March 13th, 2021 – 4:01 pm
Up Yanchep way? 🙂
Or NE suburbs like Balcatta area?
Such a pity we former Sandgropers have to wait until 9pm AEST before the polls close. 🙁
C@tmomma:
On the upside, we’ll probably know the outcome by 9:20 or so.
So eastern staters wont know the result until 9.15PM? Whereas here in SA we might find out around 8.45PM 🙂
I am in Sydney but have to wait till after 9. Better than the Federal election in 1996 when it was 4.00PM in Perth and it was all over. No point getting quickly depressed and slowly drunk. Hadn’t even opened the wine.
Here’s to a great night. I’d say break a leg but Dan Andrews has already topped it.
“Granny Annysays:
Saturday, March 13, 2021 at 2:30 pm
I am taking my lunch break after handing out “how to votes”for our favourite ALP candidate, Jess Shaw. An elderly lady with a real blue rinse approached me this morning and whispered “I’m a liberal but today I’m voting for you”.”…
We need more elderly ladies like her for the next federal election…. and youngsters… and middle-aged ones….
From Brisbane, I’ll be waiting with great interest to add this result to my post-2019 federal election collection:
Election…………………………………………… Winner
Eden-Monaro Federal by-election.…… ALP
Northern Territory election………………. ALP
ACT election……………………………………….. ALP
Qld state election……………………………….. ALP
WA state election……………………………….. ALP?
“Justin seems to fit in quite well on the crossbench with Fred Nile, One Nation and the Shooters.”
Why stop naming names there? If we’re going to talk about people in the NSW upper house who have quit their party and become ultra-conservative nutcases, why don’t we talk about Mark Latham? Remember him? Former federal leader of your party? He’s the real problem in the NSW Legislative Council. It’s better off that Field is out of the Greens but I’d take him any day of the week over Latham! Seriously, the holes you Labor folks dig for yourselves sometimes truly are incredible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Latham
https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/2021-state-government-election-results
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Hoping that changes.
Theo:
Yes, because if there’s one thing the post-2005 Labor Party is well known for, it’s the high regard it holds for Mark Latham!